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The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
Dr. Tommie L. ShepherdDr. Tommie L. ShepherdCenter for Agribusiness and Economic Center for Agribusiness and Economic DevelopmentDevelopment
2010 Dairy 2010 Dairy OutlookOutlook
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
It’s Been a Heck of a Ride!
FO7 Uniform Price: 2000 - 2009
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$/cw
t
NASS Survey Class Prices
Class I Price
Class II Price
Class III Price
Class IV Price
Make Allowance = .1651.1299
$NASS Cheese Price Survey
.9649
$
Value of Protein in Cheese
NASS Cheese Price Survey
.9649
$
Yield
x 9.3452 =
Factor
$9.35
Value of Protein on 100 lbs. of Milk
Fluid Consumption
The U.S. “Milk Bucket”
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
What Were the Drivers of Milk Prices in 2009?
Milk Production (Supply)Dairy Cow Numbers
Milk Per Cow
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
A Very Brief History of Milk Production
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
U.S. Cow Numbers 2005-2009
8,800
8,900
9,000
9,100
9,200
9,300
9,400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10
00
He
ad
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
Milk Per Cow 2005-2009
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Po
un
ds
pe
r C
ow
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
What Were the Drivers of Milk Prices in 2009?
Milk Production (Supply)Dairy Cow Numbers
Milk Per Cow
Milk Consumption (Demand)
Fluid Demand
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
Fluid Milk Sales 2005-2009
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
What Were the Drivers of Milk Prices in 2009?
Milk Production (Supply)Dairy Cow Numbers
Milk Per Cow
Milk Consumption (Demand)
Fluid Demand
Commercial Disappearance
Cheese +3.6%
Butter -2.0%
Milk Powder -13.0%
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
What Will Drive Milk Prices in 2010?
The Good NewsA Weaker USD Will Improve ExportsFeed Costs Will Decline171,000 Fewer Cows Will Decrease Production
The Bad NewsLarge Supply of Replacement Heifers
Recovering Production in NZ and Australia
EU Subsidies for Dairy Exports
Can’t Say For Sure
Temporary Increase in CCC Support Prices
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
Temporary Price Support Increases
NDMNDM $0.80$0.80 $0.92$0.92
CheeseCheese
(Blocks)(Blocks) $1.13$1.13 $1.31$1.31
CheeseCheese
(Barrels)(Barrels) $1.10$1.10 $1.28$1.28
ButterButter $1.05$1.05 $1.05$1.05
Original Aug/Sep/Oct
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
If The Markets Are Correct . . . .
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
If The Markets Are Correct . . . .
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
The Last Time Prices Were Near Support . . . .
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00$/
cwt
Southeast Uniform Price Class III Price
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
Watch for Falling Prices
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
Jan-0
0
May
-00
Sep-0
0
Jan-0
1
May
-01
Sep-0
1
Jan-0
2
May
-02
Sep-0
2
Jan-0
3
May
-03
Sep-0
3
Jan-0
4
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-0
5
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-0
6
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-0
7
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-0
8
May
-08
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May
-09
Sep-0
9
$/C
WT
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
So If The Markets Are Correct . . . .
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
We Should See Some Price Recovery
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
Jan-0
0
Jul-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jul-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jul-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jul-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jul-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jul-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jul-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jul-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jul-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jul-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jul-1
0
$/C
WT
Southeast Uniform Price Class III Price
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
A Few Trends Worth Noting
The Southeast Continues to Loose Milk Production
The West Has Lost Cows – But Not Necessarily
Milk Production
Production Increases in the Midwest and Northeast
The Universityof Georgia
College of Agricultural & Environmental
Sciences
Got Questions?
