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Climate Change Expert Group
The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics
Gregory Briner
Climate Justice Dialogue – Mobilising Bold Action4 April 2013
2 Climate Change Expert Group
The road from Doha
“Determined to adopt a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties ... at [COP 21] and for it to come into effect and be implemented from 2020.” Decision 2/CP.18
3 Climate Change Expert Group
Principles of the Convention
Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities
Consideration of the needs of particularly vulnerable countries
Promotion of sustainable development
Promotion of an open international economic system
Equity
Lack of scientific certainty should not be used as a reason to postpone action
4 Climate Change Expert Group
A note of caution on the use of indicators
Many indicators can be used and each paints a different picture
Data quality and availability can vary greatly between countries and indicators
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1990
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1991
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1992
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1993
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1994
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1995
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1996
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1997
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1998
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
1999
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2000
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2001
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2002
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2003
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2004
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2005
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2006
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2007
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2008
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2009
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
MtC
O2-
eq)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
non-Annex I Annex I
2010
Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions
3
Non-Annex I
Annex I
Source: IEA
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Ann
ual G
HG
em
issi
ons e
xcl.
LULU
CF (M
tCO
2-eq
)
GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP)
2010There is variation within regional groups
Source: IEA
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
ColombiaPeru
ChileCosta Rica
The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly
Source: IEA
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ave
rage
GH
G e
mis
sion
s per
capi
ta e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
tCO
2-eq
)
Cumulative population (billion)
1990
ChinaIndia
US
Europe
Russ
ia
Source: IEA
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ave
rage
GH
G e
mis
sion
s per
capi
ta e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
tCO
2-eq
)
Cumulative population (billion)
2010
China
India
US
Europe
Russ
ia
The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly
The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly
Source: IEA
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ave
rage
GH
G e
mis
sion
s per
capi
ta e
xcl.
LULU
CF si
nks (
tCO
2-eq
)
Cumulative population (billion)
2020
China
India
US
Europe
Russ
ia
GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates
1990
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
GH
G e
mis
sion
s pe
r uni
t GD
P (k
gCO
2-eq
)
GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP)
1990Russia
IndiaSouth Africa
EU
China
US
Source: IEA
GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
GH
G e
mis
sion
s pe
r uni
t GD
P (k
gCO
2-eq
)
GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP)
2010China
Russia
South Africa
EU
India US
Source: IEA
GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
GH
G e
mis
sion
s pe
r uni
t GD
P (k
gCO
2-eq
)
GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP)
2020China
Russia
South Africa
EU
India US
Source: IEA
Moving beyond GDP: Gini Index and the Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Gin
i Ind
ex in
200
8
Human Development Index in 2011
Latin America and the Caribbean
Asia
Europe
Africa
BrazilColombiaHonduras
Niger
Egypt
Côte d'Ivoire Thailand
Afghanistan PakistanVietnam
Ukraine
Slovakia
Russia
Poland
Costa Rica MexicoPeru
El Salvador
Source: World Bank
35 Climate Change Expert Group
Implications for the ADP negotiationsShould aim to make the post-2020 agreement
“future proof”No single quantitative indicator can give a
complete picture of countries’ responsibilities or capabilities
Caution would be needed if these metrics were to be used as indicators of responsibilities or capabilities
Vulnerability and adaptation indicators are difficult to develop
Some of the information that would be most helpful to know (e.g. mitigation potential, abatement costs) is highly uncertain or unavailable for many countries
36 Climate Change Expert Group
Latest CCXG workMaking Markets: Unpacking Design and Governance of Carbon Market Mechanisms (November 2012)Andrew Prag, Gregory Briner (OECD) and Christina Hood (IEA) Projecting Emissions Baselines for National Climate Policy: Options for Guidance to Improve Transparency (November 2012)Christa Clapp and Andrew Prag (OECD) Crossing the Threshold: Ambitious Baselines for the UNFCCC New Market-Based Mechanism (May 2012)Andrew Prag and Gregory Briner (OECD) Tracking Climate Finance: What and How? (May 2012)Christa Clapp, Jane Ellis, Julia Benn, Jan Corfee-Morlot (OECD)
www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg