THE UAE - JLL Middle East Real Estate Market... · of the UAE and lower oil prices have therefore been a major driver of the reduced rate of economic growth in 2016. In November 2016,

THE

UAEREAL ESTATE MARKET

2016: A Year In Review

Macroeconomic Overview2016 was a challenging year for the real estate sector. GDP growth declined from 4.5% in 2015 to just 2.3% in 2016 and employment growth remained relatively flat at 1.5% in 2016, as companies consolidated their operations, particularly in the oil and banking sectors.

GDP growth figures for Dubai declined at a slower rate of 1.8% between 2015 and 2016 compared to Abu Dhabi, which declined 4.2%. The oil sector comprises half of Abu Dhabi’s GDP so the reduced oil price means lower GDP from oil. Meanwhile, Dubai’s economy is more diversified.

While remaining far below their 2014/2015 levels, oil prices have recovered by about 46% during 2016, increasing steadily from USD 30 per barrel in January to USD 45 per barrel in December 2016. Crude oil and natural gas account for about 30% of the GDP of the UAE and lower oil prices have therefore been a major driver of the reduced rate of economic growth in 2016.

In November 2016, OPEC members agreed to cut oil production by about 1.2 million barrels a day, effective January 2017. OPEC members aim to negotiate a reduction of 600,000 barrels a day

from non-OPEC oil producers, but the viability of this option remains to be seen. Capping oil production would resolve the oil surplus in the market, leading to higher market prices, with Oxford Economics predicting a further modest growth in prices during 2017 to just over USD 50 per barrel. As the regional economic situation improves, an increase in GCC tourism is expected to contribute significantly to the recovery of the hospitality and retail sectors, reflecting positively on the UAE real estate market as a whole.

Although the short-term challenges of adjusting to the new normal of lower oil revenues are considerable, the medium-term picture for the UAE economy is more positive. The real estate market in the two largest emirates (Dubai and Abu Dhabi) reflect their relative economic strengths. The greater diversification of the Dubai economy and the earlier downturn of real estate prices (from mid-2014) means the Dubai residential market is now poised closer to its cyclical trough, while prices may have further to fall in Abu Dhabi.

Dubai is also benefiting from increased spending on real estate projects in the lead up to the Expo 2020. Data from MEED projects suggests that new construction tenders across the UAE could increase by more than 95% in 2017 to reach USD 100 billion, although not all of these projects are likely to materialise. The majority of this additional spending is on projects in Dubai (USD 66 billion).

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Despite the country’s dynamic skyline, its innovative cities and forward looking vision, 2016 was a challenging year for the real estate sector. GDP growth declined from 4.5% in 2015 to just 2.3% in 2016 and employment growth declined from 2.4% in 2015 to a forecasted 2.2% in 2016, as companies consolidate their operations, particularly in the oil and banking sectors.

GDP growth figures for Dubai declined at a slower rate of 1.8% between 2015 and 2016, as opposed to Abu Dhabi, which declined 4.2% during the same period. The oil sector comprises half of Abu Dhabi's GDP so the reduced oil price means lower GDP from oil. Meanwhile, Dubai’s economy is more diversified.

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

%

UAE macro-economic indicators

% growth in employment % growth in UAE GDP

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

%

UAE macro-economic indicators

% growth in employment % growth in UAE GDP

Source: Oxford Economics

Although the short-term challenges of adjusting to the new normal of lower oil revenues are considerable, the medium-term picture for the UAE economy is more positive. The real estate market in the two largest emirates (Dubai and Abu Dhabi) reflect their relative economic strengths. The greater diversification of the Dubai economy and the early downturn of real estate prices (from mid-2014) means the Dubai residential market is now poised close to its cyclical trough, while prices may have further to fall in Abu Dhabi.

Dubai is also benefiting from increased spending on real estate projects in the lead up to the Expo 2020. Data from MEED projects suggests that new construction tenders across the UAE could increase by more than 95% in 2017, with the majority of this additional spending on projects in Dubai (.

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16

Price

per

barre

l (USD

)

Oil Prices (Brent Spot Price)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Although the short-term challenges of adjusting to the new normal of lower oil revenues are considerable, the medium-term picture for the UAE economy is more positive. The real estate market in the two largest emirates (Dubai and Abu Dhabi) reflect their relative economic strengths. The greater diversification of the Dubai economy and the early downturn of real estate prices (from mid-2014) means the Dubai residential market is now poised close to its cyclical trough, while prices may have further to fall in Abu Dhabi.

Dubai is also benefiting from increased spending on real estate projects in the lead up to the Expo 2020. Data from MEED projects suggests that new construction tenders across the UAE could increase by more than 95% in 2017, with the majority of this additional spending on projects in Dubai (.

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16

Price

per

barre

l (USD

)

Oil Prices (Brent Spot Price)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Source: Oxford Economics

COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017

Dubai Prime Rental Clock

* Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPARNote: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognise that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods.

Source: JLL

Abu Dhabi Prime Rental Clock

Residential

Q4 2015

Rental GrowthSlowing

RentsFalling

Rental GrowthAccelerating

RentsBottoming Out

Q4 2016


RentsFalling


RentsBottoming Out

Office

Office

Hotel*

Hotel*

Retail Retail

Residential

Residential

Q4 2016


RentsFalling


RentsBottoming Out

Office

Hotel*

Retail


RentsFalling


RentsBottoming Out

Office

Hotel*

Retail

Residential

Q4 2015


The Dubai office market saw the delivery of 129,000 sq m of GLA in 2016, bringing the total stock to 8.55 million sq m. The majority of these completions were in Business Bay (56%) and TECOM A & B (32%). Notable completions were Westbury Square and B2B Office Tower in Business Bay, as well as The Butterfly in Dubai Media City. Approximately 10,300 sq m of office space was completed in Q4 2016, including The Edge in Dubai Internet City. 2017 is expected to witness the completion of approximately 300,000 sq m of office space, with 30% of the expected supply in Business Bay, 22% in the Greens (Onyx Towers) and 20% in JLT (Amesco Tower), highlighting a shift away from the CBD to other areas in the city.

The Abu Dhabi office market saw the completion of 214,000 sq m of GLA in 2016, bringing the total stock to 3.5 million sq m. Most of the completions occurred in the first half of the year, on Abu Dhabi Island, such as Bloom Central and the ADNOC HQ. Maryah Tower and the new FGB HQ were also completed in 2016. A further 210,000 sq m of GLA is expected to enter the market in 2017, dominated by the delivery of ADIB on Airport Road, as well as Leaf and Omega towers on Reem Island.

In Dubai, average Grade A rents remained largely flat throughout 2016, at AED 1,948 per sq m. In Abu Dhabi, Grade A rents fell 5% Y-o-Y from AED 1,850 per sq m to AED 1,760 per sq m as of Q4 2016.

Although office rental performance remained stable, the demand is weak and this is reflected by the ongoing consolidation of many businesses. We expect this trend to continue in 2017 as occupiers impose greater downward pressure, particularly on strata-owned properties in peripheral areas. Single-owned well-managed buildings with good amenities in central locations are likely to maintain current performance levels over the next year.

In Dubai, occupancy rates remain strong due to reasonable demand and limited supply. In addition, there is growing interest and construction in areas such as Business Bay and Silicon Oasis, historically seen as secondary locations. As for Abu Dhabi, there is a general softening in demand due to the decline of the oil sector, a reduction in government spending and mergers between several government entities such as NBAD/FGB and Mubadala/IPIC.

Office Market SummarySUPPLY

PERFORMANCE

Dubai Office Supply (2013–2018F) Abu Dhabi Office Supply (2013–2018F)

7,612 7,753 8,427 8,858

84

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018FSource: JLL

GLA

(000

's) sq

m

Completed Future Supply

302

8,556 8,5563,130 3,173 3,319 3,533 3,533 3,744

211 144

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018FSource: JLL

GLA

(000

's) sq

m

Completed Future Supply

CBD Rents (per sq m ) / Annual Change

1,850

Q4 2015

1,760

Q4 2016

-5%

Y-o-Y

Abu DhabiCBD Rents(AED per sq m)

1,946

Q4 2015

1,948

Q4 2016

0%

Y-o-Y

DubaiCBD Rents(AED per sq m)

Source: JLL

1,850

Q4 2015

1,760

Q4 2016

-5%

Y-o-Y


1,946

Q4 2015

1,948

Q4 2016

0%

Y-o-Y


Source: JLL


A total of 14,600 residential units entered the Dubai residential market in 2016, the highest level since 2012 (16,000 units). Contributing to the volume of completions were 1,500 villas for Emirates staff in Meydan and 690 units in Wasl Oasis II in Muhaisnah. The last quarter witnessed the completion of more than 1,000 Mira townhouses in Reem Community by Emaar and 1,200 apartment units in City Walk Phase 1 by Meraas. There are 31,000 units scheduled for completion in 2017. Dubai South is gaining prominence, with 550 units slated for completion in 2017 and another 10,000 units announced and in the pipeline. Based on the historic materialisation rate of 35%, we expect actual deliveries to be lower than those announced.

Abu Dhabi saw fewer completions than its neighboring emirate, with only 3,100 residential units completed during 2016, bringing the total stock to 248,000 units. In Q4 2016, 700 units entered the market (mainly the Marina Bay One and Marina Bay Two towers on Reem Island). Looking ahead, we expect completions in 2017 along the Corniche, Al Raha Beach, Reem and Saadiyat Islands, adding approximately 5,000 units. However, similar to Dubai, the rate of materialisation is likely to be below announced supply, as projects are delayed

Sale prices for both apartments and villas in Dubai show signs of stabilising, with no change recorded during the final quarter of 2016, but transaction volumes remain down. On a Y-o-Y basis, apartment prices recorded a mere 1% decline, while villa prices actually improved marginally by 2%. Meanwhile, rental indices continue to fall for both apartments and villas, with minimal Q-o-Q change (-1% for apartments and -3% for villas), and a larger annual decline of 6% for apartment rents, and 8% for villa rents.

Abu Dhabi reinstated the 5% residential rent cap in mid-December 2016. This comes three years after the rent cap was suspended, and at a time when the average rents in the emirate have fallen by about 5% Y-o-Y, due to job losses and cuts in public expenditure, which continue to suppress demand. The largest decline was observed in villa and apartment sale prices at 11% Y-o-Y, as of Q4 2016. While villa rentals have declined slightly by 4% Y-o-Y, apartment rentals have fallen by 7% Y-o-Y. We are expecting rents to remain under pressure in Abu Dhabi until the return of government spending.

Residential Market SummarySUPPLY

Rents

-2%Q-o-Q

-7%Y-o-Y

Sales

-2%Q-oQ

-11%Y-o-Y

Abu DhabiApartment (JLL)

Rents

0%Q-o-Q

-4%Y-o-Y

Sales

-4%Q-oQ

-11%Y-o-Y

Abu DhabiVilla (JLL)

Rents

3%H2 2016

0%H2 2016

4%H2 2016

0%H2 2016

Sales

DMAApartments

Rents Sales

DMAVillas

Rents

-3%Q-o-Q

-8%Y-o-Y

Sales

0%Q-oQ

2%Y-o-Y

DubaiVilla (REIDIN)*

Rents

-1%Q-o-Q

-6%Y-o-Y

Sales

0%Q-oQ

-1%Y-o-Y

DubaiApartment (REIDIN)*

*REIDIN data as of Nov 2016

PERFORMANCE

Residential Property Rent and Sale Indices

Dubai Residential Supply (2013–2018F) Abu Dhabi Residential Supply (2013–2018F)

434 449 456 471 471 5020

100200300400500600700

900800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018FCompleted Future Supply

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts (0

00's)

31 24

Source: JLL

236 244 245 248 248 253

0

50

100

150

200

300

250


Num

ber o

f Uni

ts (0

00's)

5 7

Source: JLL


Retail Market Summary

About 260,000 sq m of retail space was completed in Dubai in 2016, the highest volume since 2010. Q4 saw the completion of about 20,000 sq m of retail space in the Dubai Festival City expansion. Other notable completions throughout the year were Phase 2 of The Avenue in City Walk (130,000 sq m), and the Ibn Battuta Mall Phase II (17,000 sq m). Additionally, a total GLA of 84,000 sq m entered the neighborhood and community domain. Given muted market activity and demand, the potential entry of more than 300,000 sq m of additional retail GLA in 2017 poses a risk of over-supply to the market.

In Abu Dhabi, no major completions occurred throughout 2016, with total stock remaining at about 2.6 million sq m. Approximately 85,000 sq m of retail space is scheduled for completion in 2017, mostly within residential communities or towers.

Despite a number of retailers reporting a decline of sales during 2016, average retail rents remained unchanged in the primary malls of Dubai and Abu Dhabi Island. Rents in secondary malls in Dubai remained stable on a quarterly basis but increased 9% Y-o-Y as of Q4 2016. The rental increase in secondary malls in Dubai was limited to a small number of centers that saw rental growth over the first half of 2016, with no growth reported in the last quarter.

Vacancies increased slightly in Dubai, from 8% in Q4 2015 to 9% in Q4

2016, while remaining stable in the majority of malls in Abu Dhabi, at 2%.

As no major malls are scheduled for completion in Abu Dhabi during 2017, rental performance is unlikely to change significantly although retailer sales performance is expected to remain under pressure in the wake of job cuts, government spending cuts and weaker market sentiment. In Dubai, retail rents are expected to remain stable in prime malls, where strong tenant demand remains. However, as retail supply increases across Dubai in 2017, rents in secondary malls will be under pressure.

SUPPLY

PERFORMANCE

Abu Dhabi Retail Supply (2013–2018F)Dubai Retail Supply (2013–2018F)

2,194 2,567 2,620 2,623 2,623 2,708

85382

0

500

2,000

1,500

1,000

2,500

3,000


GLA

(000

's) sq

m

Source: JLL

2,899 2,955 3,180 3,441 3,441 3,791

350367

5001,0001,5002,0002,500

4,0003,5003,000

4,500


GLA

(000

's) sq

m

Source: JLL

Retail Rents (% change)

0%Q-o-Q

0%Y-o-Y

0%Q-o-Q

9%Y-o-Y

DubaiRetail Rents

0%Q-o-Q

Abu Dhabi Island Abu Dhabi Off IslandPrimary Secondary

0%Y-o-Y

0%Q-o-Q

0%Y-o-Y

Abu DhabiRetail Rents

1,850

Q4 2015

1,760

Q4 2016

-5%

Y-o-Y


1,946

Q4 2015

1,948

Q4 2016

0%

Y-o-Y


Source: JLL


Dubai’s hotel market witnessed the completion of approximately 7,000 rooms in 2016, bringing the total hotel stock to almost 79,000 keys. Q4 saw the delivery of Jumeirah al Naseem, with 430 rooms, the Premier Inn Ibn Battuta, with 372 rooms, and Nikki Beach Resort with 117 keys. Other major completions in Dubai in 2016 were W Al Habtoor in Al Habtoor City, the Four Seasons DIFC, and the Hilton Garden Inn Dubai at Mall of the Emirates. A potential 14,000 keys could be handed over in 2017, but not all of these are likely to materialise in time. Hotel supply will however continue to increase in the lead up to the Expo 2020.

Abu Dhabi saw the introduction of about 1,000 hotel keys throughout 2016, bringing total hotel supply to 21,400 keys. Q4 saw the completion of 422 rooms in Millennium Bab Al Qasr, opposite the Emirates Palace hotel. Other significant completions in 2016 were the Four Seasons, with 190 rooms and 125 serviced apartments, the Marriott Downtown, with 315 rooms, and the Marriott Executive apartments Downtown, with 64 units. About 2,000 hotel keys are expected to be handed over in 2017.

YT November occupancy rates in Dubai were 77%, flat when compared to the same period last year. ADRs, however, dropped by 10% to USD 190 YT November. Given the continued strength and diverse nature of dmand, the emirate managed to sustain occupancy rates at the mid-70s level, while absorbing significant levels of new supply.

In Abu Dhabi, YT November occupancy rates dropped to 71% in 2016 versus 74% during the same period last year. This was coupled with a

decline in ADRs by 10% to USD 127 YT November. Abu Dhabi’s hospitality sector remains reliant on corporate demand which has been significantly affected by the decline in oil prices, reduced government spending and corporate consolidation. The decline in corporate demand has partly been offset by increased leisure demand, driven by the government’s major initiatives to diversify towards leisure tourism.

SUPPLY

PERFORMANCE

Hotel Market Summary

Dubai Hotel Supply (2013–2018F) Abu Dhabi Hotel Supply (2013–2018F)

60,800 64,400 72,000 78,600 78,600 92,500

13,90015,000

0

40,000

20,000

80,000

60,000

120,000100,000


KEYS

Source: JLL

18,150 19,700 20,400 21,400 21,400 23,400

2,000 1,100

0

20,00015,00010,000

5,000

30,00025,000

40,00035,000


KEYS

Source: JLL

Hotel Performance

Occupancy(%)

74%

YT Nov 2015

71%

YT Nov 2016

Average Daily Rates(USD)

141

YT Nov 2015

127

YT Nov 2016

-10%

Y-o-Y

Abu DhabiHotel Performance

Occupancy(%)

77%

YT Nov 2015

77%

YT Nov 2016


213

YT Nov 2015

191

YT Nov 2016

-10%

Y-o-Y

DubaiHotel Performance

Source: STR Global

Occupancy(%)

74%

YT Nov 2015

71%

YT Nov 2016


141

YT Nov 2015

127

YT Nov 2016

-10%

Y-o-Y

Abu DhabiHotel Performance

Occupancy(%)

77%

YT Nov 2015

77%

YT Nov 2016


213

YT Nov 2015

191

YT Nov 2016

-10%

Y-o-Y

DubaiHotel Performance

Source: STR Global


UAE Construction CostsRef Built Asset Cost Range

AED Low

Cost Range AED Mid

Cost Range AED High

HOTELS (Including FF+E, OS+E; Excluding Parking)

1.1 3 Star Hotel Per m2 6,000 7,000 8,0001.2 4 Star Hotel Per m2 7,500 8,500 9,5001.3 5 Star Business Hotel Per m2 10,000 11,500 13,000

1.4 5 Star Hotel (Resort & Destination) Per m2 11,000 12,500 14,000

RESIDENTIAL VILLAS (Including FF+E, OS+E; Excluding Parking)

2.1 Villa - Low Specification Per m2 3,000 3,250 3,5002.2 Villa - Medium Specification Per m2 3,500 4,000 4,5002.3 Villa - High Specification Per m2 4,500 5,000 6,0002.4 Apartment - Low/Medium Rise - Low

SpecificationPer m2 3,500 3,900 4,250

2.5 Apartment - Low /Medium Rise - Medium Specification

Per m2 4,000 4,400 4,800

2.6 Apartment - Low/Medium Rise - High Specification

Per m2 5,000 5,500 6,000

2.7 Apartment - High Rise - Low Specification Per m2 4,500 4,750 5,000

2.8 Apartment - High Rise - Medium Specification Per m2 5,000 5,600 6,250

2.9 Apartment - High Rise - High Specification Per m2 5,500 6,500 7,500

COMMERCIAL OFFICES (Shell and Core, Excluding Parking)

3.1 Offices - Low/Medium Rise - Low Specification Per m2 3,800 4,000 4,300

3.2 Offices - Low /Medium Rise - Medium Specification

Per m2 4,200 4,500 4,800

3.3 Offices - Low/Medium Rise - High Specification Per m2 4,500 5,250 6,000

3.4 Offices - High Rise - Low Specification Per m2 4,500 4,750 5,000

3.5 Offices - High Rise - Medium Specification Per m2 4,800 5,400 6,000

3.6 Offices - High Rise - High Specification Per m2 6,000 6,600 7,250

CAR PARKING

2.9 Surface Parking Per m2 200 275 350

2.9 Surface Parking with Shading Per m2 350 450 550

2.9 Above Grade Parking - Approximate 4 levels Per m2 2,000 2,750 3,500

2.9 Below Grade Parking - Approximate 3 levels Per m2 3,000 3,600 4,250

Tender Price Inflation (Estimage Average) Year Low Medium High

2017 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

2018 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

2019 1.5% 2.5% 3.5%

Exclusions: Professional fees, Contingencies, Inflation, Municipality / Statutory fees, Land Acquisition Costs & Financing, Inflation/Escalation, External Works, Services/Diversions/Upgrades, incoming infrastructure, roads, landscaping, public realm, Value Added Tax (VAT)

Note: Costs/m2 are based on GIA, as per RICS code of measuring practice 6th Edition, all costs assume traditional procurement.


Growth in the UAE’s entertainment and tourism sectorA number of tourist attractions came to completion during 2016 such as the Dubai Parks and Resorts as well as the Dubai Opera, with others under way in Abu Dhabi principally on Yas and Saadiyat Islands which feeds positively into the real estate market. Going forward, we are expecting the completion of Louvre Abu Dhabi, Dubai Safari in 2017 in addition to many more in the pipeline, such as the AED 2.6 billion Six Flags Park which is scheduled for completion in H2 2019, and Sea World on Yas Island by 2022. These should help enhance the UAE’s position as the touristic attraction of choice in the region.

Domestic legislations and reformsIn October 2016, Dubai’s Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) implemented a law whereby all advertisements of property will require a permit. Additionally, in December 2016, the government reinstated the Abu Dhabi 5% rental cap three years after its suspension, and the various new real estate laws which were introduced in 2015.

Opportunities in alternative real estate asset classesThe education sector is leading the way as an increased number of real estate investors, developers and builders seek to diversify their portfolios. The major attraction of this sector to real estate investors and developers are the strength of demand, the attractive financial returns available and the alignment of this sector with government policies to improve educational standards across the region.

Mergers and acquisitions due to reduced government spendingThe mergers between NBAD/FGB and Mubadala/IPIC may be followed by others. The reduced oil price (from the highs of 2014/2015) has caused the Abu Dhabi government to act prudently. This has translated to a pause in government capital spending as well as job and budget cuts in the public sector. In Dubai, a number of international companies have been restructuring rather than expanding, which may continue to impact the office sector. Increased cost of livingIn Abu Dhabi, the cost of living has increased over 2016, with an annual inflation increase of 2.1% for the first 10 months of the year. As part of the government’s diversification plan, energy subsidies were removed, and a new fee (3% of rent) added as a fixed cost to a household’s utility bill. Further increases likely in 2017 and with VAT being introduced in January 2018.

Continued appreciation of the US dollarA strong US dollar has reduced demand from many traditional leisure source markets in 2016. Performance of hotels and retail markets could remain under pressure during 2017 if the USD continues to strengthen in value.

OPPORTUNITIES RISKS

2017 and Beyond


Future SupplyJLL estimates of future supply are updated quarterly, based on physical inspections and discussions with developers. We remain cautious of the ability of some projects to meet their stated completion deadlines, with significant delays in project delivery leading to a low materialisation rate.

Interpretation of market positions in the rental clock6 o’clock indicates a turning point towards rental growth. At this position, we believe the market has reached its lowest point and the next movement in rents is likely to be upwards.

9 o’clock indicates the market has reached the rental growth peak, while rents may continue to increase over coming quarters the market is heading towards a period of rental stabilisation.

12 o’clock indicates a turning point towards a market consolidation / slowdown. At this position, the market has no further rental growth potential left in the current cycle, with the next move likely to be downward.

3 o’clock indicates the market has reached its point of fastest decline. While rents may continue to decline for some time, the rate of decrease is expected to slow as the market moves towards a period of rental stabilisation.

ResidentialThe supply and stock data is based on quarterly surveys of the entire Dubai and Abu Dhabi metropolitan areas. This data excludes labour accommodation and local Emirati housing supply.

Completed buildings refer to those handed over for immediate occupation. Future supply is based on projects in the announced and under construction phases.

Residential performance data is based on asking prices from a basket of selected developments in Abu Dhabi where as in Dubai it is based on the REIDIN monthly index. REIDIN Dubai Residential Property Price Indices (RPPIs) use monthly sample of offered/asked listing price data as well as data on actual transactions.

OfficeCompleted buildings refer to those handed over for immediate occupation. Future supply is based on projects in the announced and under construction phases.

Our supply figures exclude government owned and wholly occupied buildings. In Dubai, the Central Business District (CBD) includes DIFC, Downtown, DTCD and Sheikh Zayed Road as far as Interchange 1, but excludes Business Bay.

The rents recorded in this report are Average Grade A rents,

Definitions & Methodology


based on JLLestimates of the open-market net rent (excluding service charges) for a new lease in basket of Grade A quality buildings, as at the survey date. Data relates to headline or face rents (exclusive of incentives).

Vacancy rate is based on JLL estimates of all office buildings in Abu Dhabi, while in Dubai it relates to a basket of buildings in the CBD that make up around 80% of the CBD supply and 15% of the total current supply.

RetailClassification of Retail Centres is based upon the ULI definition and based on their GLA:

● Super Regional Malls have a GLA of above 90,000 sq m ● Regional Malls have a GLA of 30,000 – 90,000 sq m ● Community Malls have a GLA of 10,000 – 30,000 sq m ● Neighbourhood Malls have a GLA of 3,000 – 10,000 sq m ● Convenience Malls have a GLA of less than 3,000 sq m

Malls are categorized into primary and secondary based on their turnover levels. Primary malls are the best performing malls with highest levels of turnover. Secondary malls are average performing malls with lower levels of turnover.

Retail rents represents the open market net rent that could be expected for a notional line store on the main trading level in a basket of shopping centres, as at the survey date. These base rents exclude any additional turnover or sales related rentals.

Vacancy rates are based on JLL estimates of vacancies in line stores in a basket of super regional malls in Dubai and super regional and regional malls in Abu Dhabi.

HotelsHotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided by DTCM and ADTCA as well as future hotel development data tracked by JLL Hotels. Room supply includes all graded hotel rooms but excludes serviced apartments.

Hotel performance data is based on a monthly survey conducted by STR Global on a sample of international standard midscale and upscale hotels.


Abu DhabiAbu Dhabi Trade Centre Building 7th Floor, Office No. 3PO Box 36788Tourist Club Area, Abu Dhabi, UAE Tel: +971 2 443 7772Fax: +971 2 443 7762

DubaiEmaar Square Building 1Office 403 Sheikh Zayed RoadPO Box 214029Dubai, UAETel: +971 4 426 6999Fax: +971 4 365 3260

Jamil GhaznawiCountry [email protected]

For questions and inquires about the UAE real estate market, please contact:

David DudleyInternational DirectorHead of Abu Dhabi [email protected]

Mai HassanSenior Analyst - Strategic ConsultingAbu [email protected]

Asma DakkakResearch [email protected]

Andrew RotteveelHead of Project & Development [email protected]

Craig Plumb Head of [email protected]

Dana WilliamsonHead of [email protected]

Andrew WilliamsonHead of [email protected]

Marko VucinicSenior Vice President (Hotels)[email protected]

@JLLMENA youtube.com/joneslanglasalle linkedin.com/companies/jones-lang-lasalle joneslanglasalleblog.com/EMEAResearch

© 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorised only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorisation of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.

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THE UAE - JLL Middle East Real Estate Market... · of the UAE and lower oil prices have therefore been a major driver of the reduced rate of economic growth in 2016. In November 2016,