Telecomsandsociety

ThetrulypersonalcomputerThesmartphoneisthedefiningtechnologyoftheage

Feb28th2015| Fromtheprintedition

THEOodareanoddbunch.AmongthemoreenigmaticofthealiensregularlyencounteredinDoctorWho,atelevisionseriesaboutatravellerintimeandspace,theyaremostlysilentthoughsometimesgiventosonganddisconcertinglysquidlike.Whatismore,evolutionhasequippedthemwithtwobrainsoneintheirheads,theothercarriedaroundintheirhand.

PutanOodontopublictransportanywhereinthedevelopedworld,though,andtentaclesaparthewouldbarelyraiseaquestioningeyebrow.Theotherpassengerswouldbetoobusypayingattentiontothepartsoftheirbrainthattheynowcarryintheirhandstonoticeanythingparticularlyoddaboutanaliendoingsomethingverysimilar.

Thereare2billionpeoplearoundtheworldusingsmartphonesthathaveaninternetconnectionandatouchscreenorsomethingsimilarasaninterface.Bytheendofthedecadethatnumberlookssettodoubletojustover4billion,accordingtoBenedictEvansofAndreessenHorowitz,aventurecapitalfirm.Alreadyhugelyattractiveanestimated500mwillbesoldinChinathisyearsmartphonesaregettingbothmoreusefulatthetopendandmuchcheaperatthebottom.ThemostpopularbrandinIndia,Micromax,sellsbasicmodelsforunder$40.OncephonesareestablishedinamarkettheexpectationthateveryonewillhaveonewhatRichLingoftheNanyangTechnologicalUniversityinSingaporecallsthemobilelogicforcesthemevenintoinitiallyreluctanthands,makingthemendupubiquitous.

Thesuccessisnotastoryofphonesalone.From2009to2013themobileindustryinvested$1.8trilliononimprovingitsinfrastructurearoundtheworld,accordingtotheBostonConsultingGroup.Downloadspeedshaveincreasedbyafactorof12,000anddatarateshavedroppedtoafewcentspermegabyte(seechart2).AlongwithWiFiinhomesandofficesthishasmadeitfeasibletoaddtothephonesowncomputingpowerthatofdata

centresfaraway.AmazonWebServices,theworldsbiggestproviderofsuchcloudcomputing,saysitisnowaddingasmuchservercapacityeverydayasitsecommerceparentrequiredtorunitsentireglobalinfrastructuretenyearsago.

Letitringalittlelonger

By2020,somethinglike80%ofadultswillownasmartphoneconnectedtothisremarkableglobalresource.IftheyareanythingliketodaysEuropeansandAmericans,whoareleadinginthesematters,theywillusethemforabouttwohoursadayiftheyareliketodaysEuropeanandAmericanteenagerstheywillusethemmorethanthat.Theideathatthenaturalplacetofindacomputerisonadeskletalone,beforethat,inabasementwillbelongforgotten.

Likethebook,theclockandtheinternalcombustionenginebeforeit,thesmartphoneischangingthewaypeoplerelatetoeachotherandtheworldaroundthem.Bymakingtheonlineworldmorerelevant,andmoreapplicable,toeverytaskfromgettingfromAtoBtofindingadatetowatchingoverachildtocheckingthethermostatitisaddingallsortsofconvenience.Beyondconvenience,though,acomputerthatisalwayswithyouremovesmanypreviousconstraintsonwhatcanbedonewhenandwhere,andunderminesoldcertaintiesaboutwhatwaswhatandwhowaswho.Distinctionsthatwerepreviouslyclearthedifferencesbetweenaproductandaservice,betweenacarownerandataxidriver,betweenacitysquareandapoliticalmovementblurintoeachother.Theworldisbecomingmorefluid.

Thesechangesandthetoolsdrivingthemhaverefocusedthecomputerindustry.ThanksmostlytotheiPhone,Applenotsolongagoamakerofnichedesktopsandlaptopsisnowworthmorethananyothercompanyintheworldandjusthadthemostprofitablequarterinhistory.MrEvansreckonsthatitsrevenuesarenowgreaterthanthoseofthewholepersonalcomputer(PC)business.Xiaomi,afastgrowingChinesemakerofsmartphones,hasbecometheworldsmostvaluablestartup(seearticle(http://www.economist.com/news/business/21645217chinasboomingsmartphonemarkethasspawnedgenuineinnovatorxiaomishock)).Thesmartphonehasbecomeinformationtechnologyskeyproduct.Itgeneratesthemostprofitsitattractsthemostcapitalandthebrightestbrains.

ApplesAppStoreandGooglePlay,theequivalentfortheAndroidoperatingsystemwhichrunson82%oftheworldssmartphones,asopposedtoApples15%nowofferusersmorethan3mapps.Applealonesoldappsworthmorethan$14billionin2014.Phoneswhichstartoffidenticalmuchmoreso,say,thancarscanthusbecustomisedtomeetanalmostinfiniterangeofneedsandenthusiasms.CryTranslatorpurportstointerpretyourbabysmoodRunPeetellsyouwhenbesttotakeatoiletbreakinanyfilm(andfillsyouinonwhatyoumissed).

Thefactthattheycanseeandhear,thattheyknowwheretheyareandhowfasttheyarebeingmovedandcansenseorinferallsortsofothergoingsonincreasestheadvantagesthatsmartphonesenjoyoverboxeswhichsitondesks.Whensthenextbuswhatsthatnotquiterecognisedtunehowmuchwouldthatconvenientlybarcodedproductcostsomewhereelseisthatreallyhorseonthemenu:thecombinationoflocaldataandcloudcomputinganswersquestionsinanycircumstanceausermightfindhimself.

Aswellaslettingpeopledoevermoreontheirphones,appsletthemdoevermorethingsofftheirphones,too.Ifsomethingcanbeconnectedtotheinternetbeitadoororafridgeorathermostatitcanbeaccessedbyanapp.Thephoneisthuscentraltothesuccessoftheinternetofthings.Wearabletechnologyproductsfitnesstrackers,smartwatches,cliponcamerasandthelikewillmostlyworkthroughthewearersphoneinasimilarway.Inpart

thisisbecausegivingwearablesshortrangewirelesslinkstoaphone,ratherthantheirownconnectiontotheinternet,meansthattheycanbebuiltwithsmallerbatteriesandsimplercircuits.Inpartitisbecausethephoneisalreadyagreatwayofreading,cachingandactingonallsortsofdata.Thephonecanbeturnedintoaremotecontrolforalmostanythingyoucanevenaddadogwhistleapptosendcommandstoyourpet.

Pleasecheckthenumber

Themostfamousappbasedcompany,Uber,isvaluedat$41billionbecauseofthesuccessithashadinturningthesmartphoneintoaremotecontrolfortaxis.Thesmartphonegivesthecompanystwocategoriesofuserdriversandpassengersthecontrolthattheyneed.Anditgivesthecompanysalgorithmsthedatatheyneed,fromcarpositionstocustomerfeedback.

Similarserviceprovidersareusingsmartphonestorejiggerlocallogistics.Overtheyearsmanyfirmshavetriedtoturnthedeliveryofgroceriesandothergoodsintoabigbusiness.Thelatestgenerationismuchmorelikelytosucceedthankstothesmartphonesoffreelancepersonalshoppersreadytojumpintoactionshouldsomethingneedtobepickedup.Instacart,oneofthebiggestsuchservices,hascontractswithmorethan4,000ofthemin15Americancities.Ithasgrownfrom$1minrevenuesin2012to$100mlastyear.SuchbusinessmodelsarenotwithoutcriticsthewaythatPlattformKapitalismusintegratespeopleslivesandlivelihoodsevermorethoroughlyintoanetworkofmarkettransactionsisanincreasingconcernontheEuropeanleft.

Thenewbusinessesthatsmartphonesandappsallowarenotmerelyextendingtheinternettheyarealsoreshapingitinawaythatsomeofitscurrentdenizensmayfindhardtolivewith.OnereasonGooglegotitselfintothesmartphoneworldwiththeacquisitionanddevelopmentofAndroidwastoadaptitsbusinesstoaworldofsmartphonesdominatedbyanothercompany.Whenpeopleaccesstheinternetwithappsonaphone,ratherthanwithabrowseronaPC,theyexperienceitdifferently.Theinternetlooksalotlesslikeasetofconnectedpages,andthatmakesabusinessthatdependsonhelpingpeoplefindthepagetheywantandseeingadsintheprocesslooklesscompelling.Smartphoneusersmostlybuythingsthroughapps,notthroughsearchesorads.

IfmovingtophoneworldhasbeenachallengeforcompaniesbornonthewebthoughFacebookoffersanexampleofdoingitsuccessfullyitcanbeharderstillforcompanieswhichhadonlyjustcaughtupwiththewebinthefirstplace.Mediacompaniesusedtorelyontheirusersgoingtotheirwebsites(thoughgettingthemtopaytodosohasalwaysbeentricky).ButpeoplearenowfindingstufftheywanttoreadorwatchthroughFacebook,Twitterand,increasingly,messagingservices.Snapchat,hugelypopularamongteenagersbecauseitallowsthemtosendpicturesthatfadeawayafterafewseconds,recentlyintroducedaservicecalledDiscover.ItoffersarticlesandvideosfromCNN,NationalGeographicandothers,whichdisappearafter24hours.Somepublicationshavealready

concludedthatwebsiteshavehadtheirdayandarenowplanningtodistributetheirwaresonlydirectly.

Otherdisruptionsaremorepersonal.AsEricTopolarguesinhisrecentbookThePatientWillSeeYouNowtherelationshipbetweenadoctorandapatientisanotherofthethingsthatbecomesmorefluidintheageofthephone.Smartphoneswiththerightsensorscancollectmedicallyrelevantdata,frombodytemperaturetobloodglucoselevels.Theycansendpicturesoflesionsandevendoubleasanotoscope(forearexams)andothersortsofmedicalinstrument.DrTopol,acardiologistandthedirectoroftheScrippsTranslationalScienceInstitute,predictsthiswillgiverisetosmartpatientswhocantalktothedoctoronamoreequalfooting.

Lessprofessionalintimaciesarealsochanging.Theverylocal,fluidandactionorientedsocialnetworkingmadepossiblebyappslikeTinderandGrindrisshakingupdating.OnTinderusersuploadaphotoandashortprofileandthengetshownthepicturesofotherusersnearby.Iftheylikewhattheysee,theyswipeapicturetotherightandifnot,totheleft.Iftwousersbothswipetotheright,theycanstartchattingonTindersmessagingserviceandtakeitfromthere.Thenotyetthreeyearoldserviceisusedbymorethan30mpeopleaday,whomakeabout1billionswipes,leadingto13mmatches.

Socialbehaviourandetiquettehaveadaptedtonewtechnologyinthepasttheywilldosoagain.Attheunconsciouslevelofhabitsmartphonesarealreadyoddlyintegratedintopeopleslives.Particularspatialcuesgettingintoaliftorontoatrain,forexamplecanreliablytriggeracheckofthescreen.AsimilareffectintoiletsissaidtobethereasonSamsungstartedmakingmoremodelswaterproof.

Astrangesensation

Protectingusersmaynotalwaysbeaseasyasprotectingtheirphones.PhysiotherapistswarnoftextneckunliketheOod,humansevolvedtokeepalltheirbrainsbalancedontopoftheirspines,andconstantlyhunchingforwardleadstostressandstrain.Somepsychologistswarnofthedangerofslippingpasthabittoaddiction.Theyarewarningnotjustofgamblingapps,butofthemoregeneralwayinwhichcheckingaphone,likegambling,isasearchforanelusiverewardinwhicheverydisappointmentreinforcesthedesiretotryagain.DavidGreenfield,apsychologistandfounderoftheCentreforInternetandTechnologyAddiction,callsthemtheworldssmallestslotmachines.

Teenagers,whosetimeonphonesdwarfsthatoftheirelders(seechart4),aredevelopingasociallifeinwhichfacetofaceanddigitalformsofcontactareusedinterchangeablyandoftensimultaneously.ManuelCastellsoftheUniversityofSouthernCaliforniatalksoftheirphonebasedlivesplayingoutinatimelesstimeinwhichactivitiesandexchangeshappeninparallelorevenbackwards(whenpeopleslivescomewithtimelines,itisacommonexperiencetofindoutwhattheysaidfirstonlyafteryouknowwhattheysaidnext).

Findoutmoreabout"screentime"patterns(http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/02/dailychart19)

Thatfluidityfitswithothernotionsoftheeffectsthatthesmartphonestrulypersonalcomputingcouldhave.Mechanicalclocksallowedthedaysoftheindustrialrevolutiontoberegularisedinnewwayscarschangedthelandscapeandextendedthegeographyofpeopleslivestheprintedbookmadehumanknowledgemoreaccessible,moreeasilybuiltonandmorethoroughlyexaminable,fixingitinbindingsontoshelves.Initspresent,admittedly

early,daysthephoneseemstopermitearlierregimentationtorelax.Itencouragesrentingoverbuying,tryingoutovertyingyourselfdown,coordinatingthingsontheflyratherthaninadvance.

Recentpoliticalprotestshavetakenadvantageofthenewfluidity.Smartphoneshavenotcauseduprisingsorrevolutions,buttheyhaveaffectedtheirdynamics:mobilisinghasbecomemuchcheaper,centralisedorganisationlessnecessary.DuringrecentprotestsinFerguson,asuburbofStLouis,Missouri,andHongKong,messagingappswereusedtocoordinateactivitiesonthegroundinrealtime.

AfixedsenseofplacehasstillmatteredalottothesemovementswitnessKievsMaidan,CairosTahrirSquare,NewYorksZuccottiPark,HongKongsCivicSquare.Protestmovementmetonymyofthissortreflectsthewaythatphysicalspaceisbecomingafunctionofthevirtualworld,inthewordsofThomasSevcikofArthesia,whichprovidesadvicetocitygovernments.Therefiguringofpublicspacesaspoliticalplatformsreflectsthewaythatthepurposeofphysicalplaces,betheyroadsorroomsorbuildings,nowdependslessonwheretheyareandwhattheyweredesignedfor,andmoreonwhatisbeingdonewiththescreensthattheycontainorthatpeoplehavebroughtintothem.

Suchchangeswillprovefascinatingtosocialscientists,forsomeofwhomthesmartphonehasbecomebothtelescopeandmicroscope,allowingthemtoseesocialphenomenabothmorepreciselyandonagranderscalethaneverbefore.Optimists,suchasAlexPentlandofMITsMediaLab,arguethatthevastamountsofdataphonescanprovidecouldunderpinanew,predictivesocialphysics.Thisnewsciencemightbecapableofmodelling,andthushelpingtoalleviate,manyoftheworldsproblems,fromepidemicstoviolence(and,indeed,epidemicsofviolence).

Wildtimehasjustbegun

Forpessimists,however,smartphonesareminiatureversionsofthetelescreensinGeorgeOrwells1984,omnipresenttoolswhichallowthethoughtpolicetoidentifyenemiesofthestate.Thesecurityservicesindemocracieshaveshownakeeninterestintheabilitytogetintoasmanysmartphonesaspossible(seearticle(http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21645130watchouthackersandspooksspyyourpocket)).Thoseinautocraciesaredoubtlessdoingthesame.Aroundtheworldpeoplearerushingtobuymachinesthroughwhichtheycanbemonitoredatpreviouslyimpossiblelevelsofintimacymonitoredbythestate,bycompaniesentrustedwiththeirdata,byhackerswhostealtheirinformation,andbypeerswhojustseewhathasbeenposted.

Phonebasedsocialmedia,messagingservicesandotherappsalreadymakepeopleslivesmorepublic.Hacksintothecloudhavebeenexposingpartsofpeoplesphonebasedlivestheywouldratherhavekeptprivate.Democraciesmaybeabletofindacceptablesolutionstosomeoftheproblemsposed.MrPentlandcallsforanewdealondata,whichwould

includegivingindividualsclearrightsontheirpersonaldataandallowthemtobettercontrolhowtheinformationisused.InTheBlackBoxSocietyFrankPasqualeoftheUniversityofMarylandarguesformoretransparencyintheuseofdatabothbygovernmentsandcompaniesandlimitsontheusestowhichtheyareput.

Therearetechnicalfixestosomeproblems.Californianowinsiststhatsmartphoneshavekillswitchesthatallowtheirownerstolocktheirdevicesfromafariftheygetstolen,thusreducingtheirvaluetothievesandprotectingthedatatheycouldbeusedtoaccess.ThelatestversionsofbothApplesiOSandGooglesAndroidautomaticallyencryptuserdataonsmartphonesinsuchawaythatonlytheusercandecryptthem.

Perhapsthemostfundamentalquestionaboutthefluidworldofthesmartphoneiswhetheritscurrentswill,ingeneral,bringpeopletogetherormovethemapart.TheOodignoring,textneckriskingscreenfocusedcommutersontrainsandbusesseemevenmoreisolatedfromeachotherthantheyusedtobe.In2013securityfootageonaSanFranciscoMunitrainshowedanumberofpassengersfailingtonoticeamanplayingwithapistoluntilheshotsomeone.ThetitleandtaglineofabookbySherryTurkleofMITseemtosumupsomethingreal:AloneTogetherWhyWeExpectMoreFromTechnologyandLessFromEachOther.

Thenagain,thedevicesreallydobringpeopleclosertogether.Theydoitcasually,byensuringthatthereisalwayssomeonetoplayagamewith,orindeedhookupwith.Theydoitcommercially,matchingpeopleneedingjobstopeoplewantingthemandpeoplewithgoodstoselltopeoplewhowanttobuy.Theydoitimpersonally,withcelebrityselfiessenttohugenumbersoffollowers,andtheydoitintimately,withnearconstantconversationwithinfamiliesandlifelonglinkstofriendsyoumightotherwisehavelost.Theymaydoitinawaythatletspeopleexcludevoicesthatchallengethemtheymaydoitinwaysthatareunutterablybanal.Theymaydoitdifferentlyaccordingtoageandgendersomeresearchsuggeststhat,atleastinsomecultures,womenusephonestoenrichandstrengthenexistingsocialbondsbysharingphotosandthelike,whilemenusethemtocreatenew,weakerbondsbasedonsharedinterest.Buttheydoitnonetheless.

Thenewcomputingstendencytothefluidwill,inalllikelihood,meanthatthecurrentformofthephonewillnotlastforever.Thetrulypersonalcomputingphonesmakepossible,thoughthesortwhichadaptsyoutoyoursurroundingsandviceversaseemssuretopersist.Peoplewillliveinperpetualcontactbothwitheachotherandwiththecomputationalpowerofthecloud.

TheOod,itisworthremembering,didnotjusthavetwobrains,oneintheheadandonein

thehandtheyhadathird,planetarybrain,telepathicallysharedbyall.Itmayyetbetosuchaworldthat,withphonesinhand,pocketandpurse,humanitymakesitsway.

Fromtheprintedition:Briefing