The Sustainability of America’s Fisheries: Will all fish really be gone by 2048?

8/3/2019 The Sustainability of Americas Fisheries: Will all fish really be gone by 2048?

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The Sustainability of Americas

Fisheries:

Will all fish really be gone by 2048?

Ray Hilborn

School of Aquatic and Fishery SciencesUniversity of Washington


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The end of the line


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fishing in the ocean is no longer sustainable. Worldwide,we have failed to manage the oceans fisheries in a few

decades, there may be no fisheries left to manage. So what

should be done? Incessant hunting, with increasing

technological proficiency, has decimated fish populationsworldwide. Catches of large marine species, such as

swordfish and tuna, have declined by 80% over the past 20

years. Northern cod, historically a dietary mainstay, and a

species once thought inexhaustible, is all but commercially

extinct in the western North Atlantic. In many areas, bottom

trawls have scoured the seabed clean. These are just a few

examples of the long and miserable record of hunting in the

oceans.

Mara from Nature 2005


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We fish the

large fish

first, then

move down

to smaller

fish --- we

will end upwith nothing

but jellyfish

Pauly 1998 Fishing

Down Food Webs


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Nature 2003

The large fish of

the oceans were

depleted 80-90%

by 1980


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All fish gone by

2048Science 2006

307 Citations


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The Myths

We are fishing down food chains and will have

nothing but jellyfish

80-90% of the large fish of the ocean were

gone by 1980

If current trends continue all stocks will be

collapsed by 2048


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NCEAS working group: Finding common ground in marine

conservation and management


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Stock assessments

Building a data base of abundance, catch,

fishing mortality, recruitment and SSB from as

many stock assessments as possiblethe RAM

Myers Legacy Project

So far about 350 stocks


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1980 2005


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New England Groundfish Biomass 1985-2007


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Stock Size

FishingPressur

e MaximumSustainable Yield


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S

Stock Size

Stock Size

above

targetlevel

Stock Size

below

targetlevel


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Exploitation Rate Higher Than Target Level

FishingPressur

e

Exploitation Rate Below TargetLevel


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Stock Size

FishingPressure

Fully

Exploited

Overfishing

Under

exploited

Overfished

andoverfishing

Over

fished


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Stock Size

FishingPressure

Okay

Possible

Future

Problem

Okay

Current

and FutureProblem

CurrentProblem

Better

Future


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Wormetal.200

9

Stock Size

FishingP

ressure

Assessed stocks in industrial and developed countries


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Wormetal.200

9

Stock Size

FishingP

ressure

Assessed stocks in industrial and developed countries

Rebuilding

Stocks

ProblemStocks


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A detailed history of the demersal

species of the west coast U.S.


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Overfished

Overfished

and

overfishing

Overfishing


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2,500,000


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-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

Yellowtail rockfish

Gopher rockfish

Shortspine thornyhead

Starry flounder S

Starry flounder N

Petrale sole S

Petrale sole N

Lingcod S

Lingcod N

Longspine thornyhead

Kelp greenling

Dover sole

Blue rockfish

Blackgill r ockfish

Yelloweye rockfish

Widow rockfish

Sablefish

Pacific ocean perch

Longnose skate

English sole

Darkblotched rockfish

Cowcod

Chilipepper

Canary rockfish

Bocaccio

Blue rockfish

Black rockfish S

Black rockfish N

Groundfish off west coast

Totalabu

ndance


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The common ground

(for the fisheries examined)

Fishing has reduced the abundance in most

ecosystems, and caused collapse of a

significant fraction of stocks

BUT this is expected when maximizing

sustainable yield, and heavily fished

ecosystems appear to stabilize and be

sustainable in their transformed condition


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Correcting the myths

M th I W b i fi hi l l bl fi h d


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Myth I. We begin fishing large valuable fish and

move down the food web, ending up with

jellyfish

Two papers from the Worm et al group

Sethi et al showed that there is no correlation

between price and trophic level or between

trophic level and when a fishery begins Branch et al showed the MTL in catch is

increasing, not declining, and the results of Pauly

et al. 1998 cannot be replicated

Global catch MTLPaulys 1998 data on mean trophic level


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Pauly et al. (1998)

Pauly s 1998 data on mean trophic level

Global catch MTL


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Current data

Pauly et al. (1998)

Branch et al. (2010) Nature 468:431-435

Myth II The large fish of the ocean


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Myth II. The large fish of the oceanwere 90% depleted by 1980


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World catch of Tuna and Billfish

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Longbill spearfish

Black skipjack

Atlantic white marlin

Blackfin tuna

Black marlin

Billfishes

Striped marlin

Pacific bluefin tuna

Atlantic blue marlin

Southern bluefin tuna

Northern bluefin tuna

Swordfish

Tunas, bonitos, billfishes

Frigate tuna

Albacore

Bigeye tuna

Yellowfin tuna

Skipjack tuna


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Abundance of tuna and billfish

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

SPC-YFINCWPAC-1952-2006-JENSEN

SPC-SKJCWPAC-1972-2007-JENSEN

SPC-BIGEYEWPO-1952-2007-JENSEN

SPC-ALBASPAC-1959-2007-JENSEN

ICCAT-YFINATL-1970-2006-JENSEN

ICCAT-SWORDSATL-1950-2005-JENSEN

ICCAT-SWORDNATL-1978-2007-JENSEN

ICCAT-SKJWATL-1952-2006-JENSEN

ICCAT-SKJEATL-1950-2006-JENSEN

ICCAT-BIGEYEATL-1950-2005-JENSEN

ICCAT-ATBTUNAEATL-1969-2007-WORM

ICCAT-ALBANATL-1929-2005-WORM

The large fish of the ocean were 90%


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The large fish of the ocean were 90%depleted by 1980

The major tuna fisheries of the world (except

bluefin) are not overfished in 2010

Some are less than BMSY but not significantly so

Most are near BMSY

Even Bluefin were not overfished in 1980

Catches since 1980 have been 3 times the

catches prior to 1980

M th III All fi h ill b b 2048


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Myth III. All fish will be gone by 2048

Worm et al. 2009 showed that exploitation

rates had been reduced to MSY levels in most

of the areas for which we had data

For these areas rebuilding is happening not

continued depletion

Wh t li i k t b ild


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What policies work to rebuild

industrial fisheries?

Worm et al 2009 suggests the existing

toolbox is sufficient

There is no silver bullet

Neither MPAs or ITQs were either necessary or

sufficient

A broad range of tools including catch and

effort limitation, temporary or seasonal closed

areas, effort restrictions


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Fisheries have environmental impacts

Abundance is reduced

Some species will be depleted

Ecosystems will be changed


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PRINCIPLE 2:Fishing operations should allow for the

maintenance of the structure, productivity,

function and diversity of the ecosystem(including habitat and associated dependent

and ecologically related species) on which the

fishery depends.

From the MSC web site


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What is the environmental cost of organic

vegetable production


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Fisheries may have less biodiversity cost

than organic agriculture


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How have fisheries been vilified

Foundations and NGOs have spent over 100

million per year on marine issues

Ocean campaigns with gloom and doom are

a major fundraiser

BUT

The data have begun to convince many NGOs

and Foundations that many fisheries are well

managed and sustainable


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World

War I

poster


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Oxford University Press

publication date March

2012


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References

Worm, B., Hilborn, and 19 others. 2009. Rebuilding Global Fisheries. Science. 325:578-585.

Branch, T. A., Jensen, O. P., Ricard, D., Ye, Y., and Hilborn, R. 2011. ContrastingGlobal Trends in Marine Fishery Status Obtained from Catches and from StockAssessments. Conservation Biology. DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01687.x.

Branch, T. A., Watson, R., Fulton, E. A., Jennings, S., McGilliard, C. R., Pablico, G. T.,and Ricard, D. 2010. The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries. Nature. 468: 431-435.

Sethi, S. A., Branch, T. A., and Watson, R. 2010. Global fishery developmentpatterns are driven by profit but not trophic level. Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences of the United States of America. 107: 12163-12167.

Hutchings, J. A., Minto, C., Ricard, D., Baum, J. K., and Jensen, O. P. 2010. Trends inabundance of marine fishes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 67: 1205-1210.

Hilborn, R., Stewart, I. J., Branch, T. A., and Jensen, O. P. In Press. Defining trade-offs among between conservation of species diversity abundances, profitability,and food security in the California Current bottom- trawl fishery. ConservationBiology.

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The Sustainability of America’s Fisheries: Will all fish really be gone by 2048?