The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism Kumplit

7/29/2019 The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism Kumplit

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THE STRATEGIC LOGIC OFSUICIDE TERRORISM

Robert A. Pape


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What is Suicide Terrorism?
http://youtu.be/Wd2godP6zCE


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Number of Terrorism

In 1980s, 31 cases

In 1990s, 104 cases

In 2000-2001, 53 cases

0204060

80100120

Suicide Cases

Cases

0

200

400

600

800

1987 1998 2001

Terrorism Cases

Cases

In 1987, 666 cases

In 1998, 274 cases

In 2001, 348 cases


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Why Terrorist Relying on

this Form of Attack?

Religion?

Difficult to track


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5 Principal Finding

Suicide terrorism is strategic.

The strategic logic of suicide terrorism is specially designedto coerce modern democracies to make significantconcessions to national self-determination.

During the past 20 years, suicide terrorism has beensteadily rising because terrorist have learned that it pays.

Although moderate suicide terrorism led to moderateconcessions, these more ambitious suicide campaign arenot likely to achieve still greater gains and may well fail

completely. The most promising way to contain suicide terrorism is to

reduce terrorists confidence in their ability to carry out suchattacks on the target society.


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The Logic of Suicide

Terrorism Other logical strategic:

Timing all suicide attacks occur in organized,coherent campaign, not as isolated or randomly timed

incidents. Nationalist goals suicide terrorist campaigns are

directed at gaining control of what the terrorist see astheir national homeland territory, especially at

ejecting foreign forces from that territory. Target selection all suicide terrorist campaigns in the

last two decades have been aimed at democracies,which make more suitable targets from terroristspoint of view.


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Defining Suicide Terrorism

Terrorism has two purposes:

To gain supporters

To coerce opponents

Form of Terrorism:

Demonstrative

Destructive

Suicide Terrorism


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The Coercive Logic of

Suicide Terrorism

Strong

Vs

Weak


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The Record of Suicide

Terrorism, 1980 to 2001 Suicide terrorism has three properties that

are consistent with strategic logic but not

with irrational/fanatical behavior:

1. Timing (occur in organized)

2. Nationalist goals (gaining control of

what terrorists see as their nationalhomeland territory)

3. Target selection (aimed at democracies)


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Suicide

Terroris

tCampaign

, 1980-

2001


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Timing

The most important strategic: the timing

of the suspension of campaigns (most

often occurs based on a strategicdecision by leader). For instance:

Hama's suicide attacks

How if without timing? -Political goals were not articulated

-Timing either random and event-driven


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Nationalist Goals

Most important community's goal:

-Independence of its homeland

(population, property, and way of life)

-Gaining control of what the terrorists

see as their national homeland territory

-Expelling foreign military forces from

that territory


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Motivation and Targets of

Suicide Terrorist Campaigns,


Suicide Terrorist Campaign,

1980-2001


Suicide Terrorist Campaign,

1980-2001


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Nationalist Goals

Central objective coercing a

foreign government that hasmilitary forces in what they seeas their homeland to take

those forces out


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Nationalist Goals

Why did some suicide terrorist campaignsbe irrational in the sense that they arebeing waged for unrealistic goals?

Answer:- Some suicide terrorist group have not

been realistic in expecting the fullconcessions demanded of the target

- Simply the terrorists are optimistic aboutthe usefulness of violence for achievinggoals


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Democracies as the Targets

Democracies are often thought to be

especially vulnerable to coercive

punishment

Suicide terrorism is a tool to the weak,

regardless of how much punishment the

terrorists inflict, the target state almost

always has the capacity to retaliate with

far more extreme punishment or even by

exterminating the terrorists' community


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The Apparent Success of

Suicide Terrorism


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Is it successful?

6 out of 11 suicide terrorist campaigns closelycorrelate with significant policy changes

1 fully achieved (Hez vs US/F,83) 3 partial achieved (Hez vs Israel,83-85; Hamas

vs Israel 94 and 95)

1 give away to negotiation (LTTE vs SL, 93-94)

1 top leader released (Hamas vs Israel, 1997)


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Not Really


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The Limits of Suicide Terrorism

In low strategic importance, it work

But unlikely in a central things that involved

the wealth and security of the nation


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Why?

The logic of punishment and the record ofsuicide terrorism.

Unless, they acquire far more destructivetechnologies.


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Policy Implications for

Containing Suicide Terrorism

Important lessons:

1. Neither offensive militaryaction nor

concessions alone rarely work for long.


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How then?

Demographic separation

Improving domestic security

Give pause to those who favor solutions thatinvolve conquering countries in order totransform their political systems.

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The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism Kumplit