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Private and public property prices have both slid back to 2011 levels, when soaring house prices were a hot button issue in the election. But the outlook today has changed, with private prices tipped to keep
sliding and stagnant public resale prices set for stability.
The state of Singapore’s property market
Private property prices slid for a ninth straight quarter, to the tune of 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. This has brought prices back to early 2011 levels.
Private property price index, 1995 to 2015
A record 21,906 private homes are set to be completed this year, with supply easing only from 2017 onwards. Current unsold inventory of 23,271 units could take over three more years to clear.
Private residential supply
HDB resale prices slid for nine straight quarters before rising 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. Prices are back to levels seen in the middle of 2011.
HDB resale price index, 1995 to 2015
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
50
100
150
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
50
100
150
Prices of both private property and HDB have come down from their peaks
Supply remains high Vacancy rate highest since 2005
Suburban non-landed rents took the biggest hit last year, falling faster than other regions. Rents are now down to levels last seen in late 2010.
Rental index of private homes
Rents have fallen to lows last seen in 2010 A slowing economy has also started to affect other sectors of the real estate market.
Of�ce rents, which were generally on the rise from 2010, started falling in the third quarter of last year. They are now are around levels in early 2014.Retail rents peaked most recently in the fourth quarter of 2014 and have fallen for four straight quarters. They are now at the lowest in at least �ve years.
Of�ce and retail rents have fallen too
Some 26,517 private homes were vacant at the end of last year. Vacancy rate hit 8.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, the highest in a decade.
Vacancy rate (%)
Sales have slipped to 2008 �nancial crisis levels. New sales are now just over 7,000 units a year, a far cry from close to 15,000 in 2013 and a peak of over 22,000 in 2012. Total sales were 14,117 last year.
Private residential sales, 2004 to 2015
Tougher times are ahead for private property as cooling measures continue to choke demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000New sales Total sales
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
4
6
8
10
20001995 2005 2010 2015
60
80
100
120
20001995 2005 2010 2015
Rental index
Of�ce Retail
% change over previous year2014
9.80.9
% change over previous year2015
-6.5-4.1
Conclusion: We may be in January, but buckle up for the rest of the year — it’s going to be a painful ride.
Sources: URBAN AND REDEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY, HOUSING AND DEVELOPMENT BOARD
TEXT: RENNIE WANG, JANICE HENG ST GRAPHICS ST FILE PHOTO
21,906