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The challengeAfter decades of decline in per capita food
production, a new optimism has emerged
about the prospects for Africa and African
agriculture. Growth in agriculture and in
the economy as a whole has outpaced
population growth in many countries,
armed conflicts have been reduced,
regional and sub-regional institutions are
being strengthened, and good progress
has been made in developing the business
environment. There is wide agreement that
African agriculture has enormous potential
for growth thanks to its abundant natural
resources, namely land and water.
As the global economic crisis eases,
new and improved market opportunities
are expected to arise for African farmers
in traditional as well as non-traditional
agricultural exports, such as biomass
feedstocks for bioenergy production.
Population growth and urbanization point
to domestic and intra-African markets as
the most promising areas for stimulating
medium- to long-term agricultural growth.
Several countries have opportunities for
expansion into high-value labour-intensive
products for both regional and international
markets. The strong potential of agriculture
in sub-Saharan Africa is welcome news:
agriculture is the backbone of overall
growth for the majority of countries in the
region and essential for poverty reduction
and food security. But, as pointed out by
the 2008 World Development Report, failure
to exploit this potential has significantly
compromised the role agriculture could play
in reducing poverty.
Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa has
responded to a better macroeconomic
environment, and improved price
incentives brought about by inter alia
reduced “taxation” of agriculture and
higher world prices. The negative rate of
protection for Africa as a whole improved
from about minus 20 percent in 1975-
79 to less than minus 10 percent in the
first half of the present decade, and to
near zero in 2005. However, this was
the easier part of the challenge. The
positive prospects for Africa’s agriculture
will not materialize without concerted
and purposeful policy action, especially
if agricultural growth is to be sustained
and if it is to result in substantial poverty
reduction. Many challenges need to
be overcome, including the widening
technology divide, slow development of
input and output markets and associated
market services, slow progress in regional
integration, governance and institutional
shortcomings in some countries, conflicts,
HIV-AIDS and other diseases. Connecting
smallholders to markets and helping them
to adapt to new conditions and become
more productive, increasing opportunities
for rural employment, reducing risk and
vulnerability, especially to extreme weather
events and price swings, and increasing
access to assets and skills will be some of
the actions to make sure that agricultural
and rural growth goes hand in hand with
poverty reduction.
the special challenge for sub-saharan africa
index of agricultural Production (1960=100)
Source: FAOStat
Africa Eastern Africa
Middle Africa northern Africa
southern Africa
Western Africa
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
1961
1962
196
319
64
1965
196
619
6719
68
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
198
019
8119
8219
8319
84
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
199
019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
96
1997
1998
1999
200
020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
06
2007
high level expert forum - how to feed the World in 2050Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Economics DivisionEconomic and Social Development DepartmentViale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
Tel: (+39) 06 57053354Fax: (+39) 06 570 53056172Email: [email protected]
The issuesnatural resourCes
The food crisis trap that threatens the
African continent is primarily the result
of lack of investment in the agricultural
sector. Its vulnerability to climate adds to
the burden. Farming in Africa is largely
done under rainfed conditions, and Africa’s
reliance on agriculture and its very low levels
of irrigation make it singularly vulnerable
to the vagaries of its highly variable and
changing climate. Despite abundant natural
water supplies at the continental level, this
abundance is not evenly distributed and it
is apparent that Africa has not been able to
intensify its agricultural production through
irrigation and improved water management
(water harvesting and storage).
Less than a quarter of the total land area
of sub-Saharan Africa suitable for rainfed
crop production is so used. FAO has
estimated that the potential additional land
area available for cultivation amounts to
more than 700 million ha. Experts point in
particular to the Guinea Savannah region –
an area twice as large as that planted with
wheat worldwide. Only 10 percent of the
Guinea Savannah – covering an estimated
600 million hectares – is farmed. The agro-
ecological conditions are rather similar to the
Cerrado region of Brazil, which has been an
engine of agricultural growth in that country.
But at the same time, it must be recognized
that to exploit this natural resource and open
up new farmlands will require enormous
investments in infrastructure and technology
and appropriate safeguards to avoid
potential negative environmental impacts
teChnology
A fundamental challenge in achieving
productivity growth in Africa is the variety
of agro-ecological environments and farming
systems (also a result of weather variability
and dependence on rain), and the large
number of staples it produces. Under such
conditions possibilities for application of
existing yield-increasing technologies or the
massive application of new ones is limited1.
However, success stories of technology
generation (NERICA rice for instance) do
exist and lessons should be drawn from
such successes. Yield gains associated with
high-yielding varieties have been much lower
in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions,
partly as a result of the inadequacies of input
and output markets and extension services
and poor infrastructure. This in turn has
resulted in a low use of irrigation, fertilizers,
advanced seeds and pesticides. Despite the
much higher need for agricultural research,
particularly research into adaptation to
climate change, Africa has not been
investing significantly in agricultural research
and development. Some experts advise
that Africa should look at ways of taking
advantage of the potential possibilities that
may be offered by biotechnology, including
transgenic crops that are proved to be safe,
while recognizing the existence of legal,
economic, social and political barriers to the
development of genetically modified crops.
Conservation Agriculture could constitute a
viable option given the infrastructure, capital
and labour situation in parts of Africa.
ProsPeCts for smallholDer farmers
Smallholder agriculture is the predominant
form of farm organization in Africa. Therefore
at least in the short and medium term,
agricultural growth (especially that of
staples) and poverty reduction will be closely
for the continent as a whole, economic growth was well above
5 percent until 2008, and for sub-saharan africa, above 5.5 percent.
agricultural growth in sub-saharan africa has been more than
3.5 percent, well above the 2 percent rate of population growth.
nevertheless, 218 million people in africa, some 30 percent of the
total population, are estimated to be suffering from chronic hunger
and malnutrition. in sub-sahara african, 38 percent of children
under five are stunted (affected by chronic malnutrition).
the population of sub-saharan africa is projected to grow from
some 770 million in 2005 to between 1.5 and 2 billion in 2050.
Despite rapid rural-urban migration and the growth in urban
population, the absolute number of rural people is also likely to
continue to grow.
there are around 33 million small farms of less than two hectares,
representing 80 percent of all farms in the continent.
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: UN
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
po
pu
lati
on
(10
0 m
illio
ns)
1950
1955
196
0
1965
1970
1975
198
0
1985
199
0
1995
200
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Gro
wth
rat
e (p
erce
nt)
population (100 millions) population growth rate (%)
3.50
3.15
2.80
2.45
2.10
1.75
1.40
1.05
0.70
0.35
0
Population estimates for sub-saharan africa: 1950 to 2050
1 According to the World Development Report 2008, Asia had two major staples ( wheat and rice) at the time of the Green Revolution vis-à-vis 8 for Africa (maize, rice, millet, sorghum, cassava, yams, and bananas/plantains.
soME bAsic fActs
associated with growth in smallholder
agriculture. However food systems are
being transformed into globally integrated,
more knowledge-based, capital-intensive
chains. Cheaper capital, the introduction of
new technologies and higher opportunities
for off-farm employment, are factors that
work towards changing the optimal size
of farms in favour of larger holdings. The
comparative advantage that smallholders
have in food production is under threat
as larger commercial farms are better
placed to handle the process of managing
risks associated with adoption of new
technologies and the diffusion of knowledge.
The result may be over time an increase in
the average farm size, land consolidation,
increased commercialization of agriculture
and possible migration out of the sector.
In this process, small-scale farmers will be
under increased pressure to adapt. This
points to the urgent need for programmes
and policies to increase the capacity of small
farmers to boost their productivity and enter
dynamic sectors for national, regional and
international markets. Such programmes
include awareness and capacity building,
reductions in transaction costs due to small
volumes and perishability, facilitating the
creation of farmers’ organizations and other
forms of business associations to ensure a
minimum optimal scale, and the control of
quality and safety of food.
inVestment Climate
Sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture is grossly
undercapitalized, with capital per person
working in agriculture being much less than
in other developing regions. This reflects
both insufficient investment as well as rapid
growth in the region’s rural population.
It is a cause for concern because many
countries with the highest prevalence and
greatest depth of hunger are located in the
region. Insufficient investment in agricultural
production value chain development and
support services can have a severely
detrimental impact on the food security of
the majority of the poor and hungry, who
live in rural areas and depend directly or
indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods.
There is a need for substantial investment
in public goods that support agriculture,
notably research and extension, irrigation
and power supply, rural roads, storage
facilities, education, health care. Given
Africa’s low population density, infrastructure
connecting farmers to markets is costly
and public-sector investment is essential. A
favourable investment climate calls for well
functioning institutions that effectively allocate
and protect property rights, promote trading,
reduce risk and facilitate collective action.
imPort DePenDenCy
Many of the least developed countries in
Africa have become increasingly dependent
on imported food in recent decades. This
dependency may not be a serious issue
per se, so long as other export sectors can
be developed to generate revenue to pay
for food imports, but in many instances this
has not been achieved. Consumers in these
countries may have benefited from the low
prices of imported food resulting from, inter
alia, OECD farm subsidies, but the recent
price spike demonstrated the precariousness
of this position, while at the same time
highlighting the challenges farmers (especially
small farmers) in developing countries face
in trying to expand production in response
to higher prices. Projections to 2050 tend
to confirm that this import dependency will
continue in many African countries, which
need to find ways of ensuring that they can
pay for their imports. A further problem has
Cereal yields have grown little and are still around 1.2 tonnes
per hectare in the region, compared to an average of some
3 tonnes per ha in the developing world as a whole.
fertilizer consumption was only 13 kg per ha in sub-saharan africa
in 2002, compared to 73 kg in the middle east and north africa and
190 kg in East Asia and the Pacific.
only 4 percent of arable land in sub-saharan africa is irrigated,
compared to about 20 percent globally and 38 percent in asia.
agricultural research and development spending in the countries of
the region between 1981 and 2000 grew at only 0.6 percent per year
on average, and actually fell during the 1990s.
some 40 percent of the population of the region lives in landlocked
countries, as against only 7.5 percent in other developing
countries, and transport costs in sub-saharan africa can be as
high as 77 percent of the value of exports.
table 2: transaction cost advantages of small and large farms
Source: Poulton et al. 2005
small farms large farms
unskilled labour supervision, motivation, etc X
Local knowledge X
food purchases and risk (subsistence) X
skilled labour X
Market knowledge X
technical knowledge X
inputs purchase X
finance & capital X
Land X
output markets X
product traceability and quality assurance X
Risk management X
Discussion points
been the low levels of intra-regional trade
resulting from physical and institutional
barriers. One of the biggest impediments to
large-scale private investment in cross-border
trading capability, particularly in Southern and
Eastern Africa, has been the unpredictable
use of export restrictions whenever there is a
fear of food shortages in local markets.
Climate Change
Climate change is expected to affect most
regions of Africa negatively including through
extreme events like floods and droughts
which will become more frequent, but it will
also open new opportunities in some regions
where rainfall and other climate parameters
may improve. Other opportunities arise from
the possibility of carbon trading and offsets.
Climate models are not yet sufficiently well
developed for Africa to predict what would
happen region by region with sufficient
certainty to engage in detailed planning.
Regardless, climate change should be
mainstreamed into general agricultural and
risk mitigation agendas, and capacities for
agricultural technology development should
be enhanced. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated
that adaptation to climate change could
cost Africa some 5 to 10 percent of its
gross domestic product. The Panel report
also predicted that climate change could
cause potential crop yields from rain-fed
agriculture to decline by 50 percent in some
African countries.
linking agriCulture to nutrition seCurity
Narrowing the nutrition gap in sub-Saharan
Africa, where the difference between actual
and optimal intake is greatest, and the
incidence of undernourishment is highest,
is imperative. Improved food security
must occur in conjunction with improved
nutrition security which refers to the “quality”
component of food production, consumption
and physiological need. Advances in
agriculture are typically framed in terms of
narrowing the gap between current and
potential production yields. However, there is
another type of gap that exists, the “nutrition
gap” which refers to 1) increasing availability
and access to the foods necessary for a
healthy diet, and 2) increasing actual intake
of those foods. Agriculture has the greatest
potential and role to play in alleviating
poverty and improving the food and nutrition
situation of vulnerable rural communities.
However, nutrition security objectives
should be taken into consideration in the
design and implementation of agricultural
development initiatives to ensure that
potential opportunities to improve nutrition
are identified and exploited.
hiV-aiDs
Africa’s failure to grow as rapidly as the rest
of the developing world has left a legacy of
poverty and hunger. Sub-Saharan Africa
has seen a huge increase in the number
of people living in absolute poverty – from
214 million in 1981 to 391 million in 2005,
with only a small decrease in percentage
terms over the same period, from 53.7 to
51.2 percent. Low growth has not only
reduced domestic resources available
for investing in infrastructure, agricultural
development, health, education and
nutrition, but it has also aggravated the HIV-
AIDS crisis, which involves a vicious spiral
of poverty and disease. In rural areas the
fight against HIV and AIDS is lagging badly
and needs to be intensified with expansion
of HIV and AIDS services to rural areas and
major improvements to social safety nets.
institutional reforms
State institutions for agriculture in Africa are
particularly weak in the poorest countries.
Lack of decentralized and bottom-up
processes are often in stark contrast
with the heterogeneity of agro-climatic
conditions and technology needs that
need specific solutions derived through
a participatory process. Institutions are
needed that strengthen the functioning of
national and regional markets (regulatory,
risk management, information, a framework
for organizations and cooperatives) and
those for the management of climatic and
other risks. Political stability and peace are
still issues that require attention.
1. Why has agricultural performance in much of africa over much
of the last 20 years or longer been disappointing? What has gone
wrong? What should be done to correct the mistakes of the past?
2. What is the potential for africa to ensure its food security?
3. What is the potential of smallholder agriculture to be the engine
of agricultural growth and poverty reduction in africa in the
long term, and what will the impact of transition in farming be
on the smallholder sector? how should smallholder farmers
be assisted?
4. What are the priorities for technological change in african
agriculture: does the continent need a green revolution of its
own, and what might be the elements of such a revolution?
5. What institutional and policy changes are needed to strengthen
support to farmers and other actors along the agri-food value
chain, and create a favourable environment for investment?
high level expert forum - how to feed the World in 2050Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Economics DivisionEconomic and Social Development DepartmentViale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
Tel: (+39) 06 57053354Fax: (+39) 06 570 56172Email: [email protected]
for further information