The Southern Megalopolis and

the Challenge to Conservation in

the 21st Century

Adam Terando, Ph.D.

US Geological Survey

Southeast Climate Science Center

Department of Interior

Climate Science Center Network

Producing actionable science that helps individuals and

organizations understand and adapt to global change.

The “outher Megalopolis

CLIMATE + CARS + TASTE

New York Times

Private automobile facilitates segregation

of uses and viability of large distances

Movement away from grid network

for over 100 years

Chicago

9,912,730

Large pre-auto core. Preference for high connectivity

suburban development

Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

MORE

CONNECTED

LESS

CONNECTED

Chicago

9,912,730

Large pre-auto core. Preference for

high connectivity suburban development

Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

MORE

CONNECTED

LESS

CONNECTED

Boston

8,041,303

Large pre-auto core and suburbs. Mix of high and low

connectivity suburban development.

Chicago

9,912,730

Boston

8,041,303

Large pre-auto core. Preference for

high connectivity suburban development

Large pre-auto core and suburbs. Mix of

high and low connectivity suburban development.

Small pre-auto core. Preference for low connectivity

suburban development.Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

MORE

CONNECTED

LESS

CONNECTED

Atlanta

6,162,195

Chicago

9,912,730

Atlanta

6,162,195

Boston

8,041,303

Large pre-auto core. Preference for

high connectivity suburban development

Large pre-auto core and suburbs. Mix of

high and low connectivity suburban development.

Small pre-auto core. Preference

for low connectivity suburban development.Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

MORE

CONNECTED

LESS

CONNECTED

US DOT

Low density

development but

large spatial extent

US DOT

US DOT

Using the USGS SLEUTH model to simulate sprawl

and inform conservation decision-making

SLEUTH – Li i g ope -source urban-growth model.

SLEUTH IS A CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELWIKIMEDIA

Growth dependent on rules and transition

pro a ilities….intera tion with neigh ors

Spontaneous Growth

Spreading Growth

Edge Growth

Road Growth

FOUR TYPES

URBAN GROWTH PATTERNS

Spontaneous Growth

Spreading Growth

Edge Growth

Road Growth

WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE

SIMULATING?

1993

2010

WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?

Simulating spread of road density => Urban

Sprawl

Proceed with

calibration and

prediction for

county-based sub-

regions

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

For 2010 – 2060, projected increase is 101% – 192%in urban extent

2060 Projection

95th percentile (Red)

Piedmont

Megalopolis

LESS SO IN

SOUTHEASTERN

PLAINS

Large-scale habitat loss

Much more fragmented landscape

Piedmont, Mountains, and Coast

Calculate Distance

52% of Total

50 KM

86% of Total

100 KM

The “outher Megalopolis

So what does this mean

for conservation?

Big Lands

Big Money

Big Government

South Atlantic

Landscape Conservation Cooperative

Climate Change: One more big

consideration

Difficult to Create Conservation

Corridors for Climate Change

Adaptation

Classic suburban development is a primary

contributor to greenhouse gas emissions

Washington Post

IS OUR STUDY ALREADY OUT

OF DATE?

Ne e ide ce suggesti g e e already reached peak spra lBarrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

More connectivity in new development

since mid 90sBarrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Preferred urban development pattern is

slowly changing

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

Our development patterns are

intrinsically linked to the two biggest

challenges to conservation today

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

May need much stronger links to

urban planning community for

conservation actions to be effective

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

Alignment of conservation objectives

and changing development

prefere ces ay facilitate ore i -

i opportu ities

The Southern Megalopolis is a

choice, not our destiny.