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The Solar System Large Planets influence on a new Maunder Minimum Harald Yndestad *) and Jan-Erik Solheim **)
EGU2016: 20.04.2016
*)NorwegianUniversityofScienceandTechnology
**)UniversityofTromsø,Norway
10.10.16 2
Research questions
1. Is there a next minimum sun irradiation period coming? 2. A new Maunder irradiation minimum?
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Maunder minimum: A cold period from: 1640-1720
Total Solar Irradiation Sunspots
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Sola System Oscillation Mutual gravity between the sun and the planets
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
y(solarradius)
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5x (solar radius)
19402040
SunPosi)onOscilla)on Mutualgravity
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Sun Position Oscillation
Controlled by the large planets
yr0 50 100 150 200 250
R
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1SPOy Autocor.
Jupiter:12yr, Saturn: 29yr, Neptune:84yr, Uranus:164yr
Wavelet spectrum autocorrelations
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1700-2013: Total Solar Irradiation
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050Year
1356
1357
1358
1359
1360
1361
1362
1363
W/m2
TSI-HS
Stationary periods? (Scafetta and Willson 2014 ) ACRIM TSI (Hoyt-Schatten)
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160yr
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
R
TSI-HS Autocor.
Periods: 11yr (Jupiter); 29yr (Saturn); 84yr (Neptune); 164 yr (Uranus)
1700: Total Solar Irradiation Wavelet spectrum autocorrelations
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1700: Total Solar Irradiation Stationary periods
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050Year
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10W(s,t)
TSI-HS Wavelets
Wx(49,t)Wx(84,t)Wx(165,t)
Dalton
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1000-2100: Total Solar Irradiation
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200Year
1359
1359.5
1360
1360.5
1361
1361.5
1362
1362.5
1363
W/m2
TSI-LS
Estimated TSI from 1000 A.D (Velasco Herrera et al. 2015)
Longer stationary periods?
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0 50 100 150 200 250yr
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
R
TSI-LS Autocor.
Periods: 11 yr (Jupiter); 125 yr; 210yr
1000: Total Solar Irradiation Wavelet spectrum autocorrelations
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1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200Year
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10W(s,t)
TSI-LS Wavelets
W(125,t)W(210)W(373,t)Mean
Oort Wolf Sporer Maunder Dalton Next
Stationary wavelet periods and known minimum irradiation periods
1000-2100: Total Solar Irradiation
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Estimated Next Maunder period Computed Next minimum periods
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Minimum:TSI-1700:
Minimum:TSI-1000:
Min,Sunspots-1610:
Commonminimumperiod:
Dalton->Maunderlevel
Dalton->Maunderlevel
Dalton->Maunderlevel
Hvor kan du lære noe om AI?
Thank you My campus, et the end of the rainbow http://www.ntnu.no/ansatte/harald.yndestad
12 Månen og Klima/Yndestad 12
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Identified Stationary Periods The stationary periods
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Minimum Irradiation Periods Relation to known periods
