The SEAPLANE Project 3. November 2005, Bergamo Dr Benedikt Mandel MKmetric Gesellschaft für Systemplanung mbH, Karlsruhe Activity 3 Airport passenger market

The SEAPLANE Project

3. November 2005, Bergamo

Dr Benedikt Mandel MKmetric Gesellschaft für

Systemplanung mbH, Karlsruhe

Activity 3Airport passenger market analysisRealisation of suggested Routes Further opportunities for airports

[email protected]

Tasks

MKmetric November 2005

Establishing the simulation framework

Ex post Simulation of air passenger market potential - Computation- Analysis- Reference year 2000

Ex ante Simulation of air passenger market potential - Computation- Analysis- Forecast horizon 2006

Development of an Action Plan for inauguration of flights

Input


Socio-economy data (e.g. population, economic structure)

Consideration of urbanisation and land use,

infrastructure and motorization

Consideration of political constraints and

transport policy in all countries

Consideration of competing transport modes in all

countries

Data on the NUTS 3 level for EU and according to the

distance from EU with growing country agglomerations

Methodology


Socio- economy

Ground-basedTransport

Travel Surveys

Reference Status

System Approach - Generation - Distribution - Modal Split - Route choice - Assignment

Statistics, link counts

Workshop input, report & action Plan

Matrix B

ounding

Ex anteEx post

TransportPolicy

Methodology

MKmetric October 2005

j jnUinU

nP(i) i, jCn

Logit

nP(i)

kjnx

kjnxnP(i)

)kjnx,n(P(i)

Cross elasticity

Point elasticitynP(i)

kinx

kinxnP(i)

)kinx,n(P(i)

Specific assumptions


• Set up of scenario definitions for ex ante analysis (forecast) socio-economy, according to workshop and regional partners

infrastructure update to 2004 including indications of regional partners

network assumptions according to schedule summer 2004 ex VXO-CPH

regionalisation incl. update for UK and split up of Møre og Romsdal area

• Forecast is for 2006 (perspective for inauguration of new routes)• Economic limitations for inaugurating a new route

annual demand > 50 tsd. “weighted” passengers (5000 for charter)

business pax are counted twice,

transfer pax count 50% when travelling for private reasons

for charter and low cost flights no transfer passengers are counted

for charter flights no business travellers are counted

no double count for business travellers on low cost flights

Output I


Airports: Oostende - OST, BE

Hannover - HAJ, DE

Bremen - BRE, DE

Groningen - GRQ, NL

Aalesund - AES, NO

Kristiansand - KRS, NO

Stavanger - SVG, NO

Inverness - INV, UK Kristianstad - KID, SE

Växjö - VXO, SE

Time horizon - Scenario: Ex post - 2000

Ex ante - 2006

Promotion: European Commission

Workshop

Via partner regions andpartner airports

Action plan: Content - airport, region, routes

Lay out - two pages per route

Output II


Analysis by airport: total number of passengers p.a., conditional aircraft movements, catchment and traffic information,technical and commercial key figures.

Analysis by route: new routes,total number of passengers p.a., structure of the demand,type and structure of service,catchment and sheaf of the route,market penetration figures.

Analysis by region: socio-economic data in total andrelative to the catchment,changes in accessibility by air transport,transport key figures.

Improvement of Accessibility by new Routes

____________________________________________________________________________________MKmetric GmbH November 2005

AESAESAESAESAESAESAESAESAES

B R EB R EB R EB R EB R EB R EB R EB R EB R EGR QGR QGR QGR QGR QGR QGR QGR QGR Q

H AJH AJH AJH AJH AJH AJH AJH AJH AJ

IN VIN VIN VIN VIN VIN VIN VIN VIN V

K IDK IDK IDK IDK IDK IDK IDK IDK ID

K R SK R SK R SK R SK R SK R SK R SK R SK R S

OSTOSTOSTOSTOSTOSTOSTOSTOST

SVGSVGSVGSVGSVGSVGSVGSVGSVG

VXOVXOVXOVXOVXOVXOVXOVXOVXO

Change in Air Transport Accessib ilityby New Routes 2006 [M inutes]

-60 to -45-30 to -25-25 to -20-20 to -10-10 to -5no chang e

Action Plans


• description of the airport and the region incl. status quo catchment with socio-economic data

• for each feasible new routetotal demand by business / leisure, O&D / transfer passengers

route sheaf for transfer passengers route specific catchment

suggestions for aircraft / airline / schedule summary of relevant technical aspects • demand forecast for the airport incl. the new routes

• key figures concerning additional passenger & a/c mileage, fuel consumption, passenger hours saved

• improvement of accessibility

Action Plan Improvement


• The Action Plans were presented at the Hannover workshop in 2004.

• The Action Plan issued for Hannover airport has been used as material for the latest ROUTES conference. A review meeting at Hannover will take place in 11/2005

• Numerous routes suggested within the project have been set into service.

• Various responses to the Action Plans lead to an improvement of this form of presenting results, enriched with additional information, to be used within the forthcoming EUROPLANE project, now called Implementation Folder

New Routes inaugurated


1 year ago, more than 90 routes were identified for 2006, 22 of them are or will be in service already 2005:

Routes identifiedNo Carrier from to date No Carrier from to date

1 Britsh Midland Inverness London Heathrow Jan 04 12 Spanair Växjö Las Palmas Okt 042 easyJet Inverness Belfast Jul 05 13 Novair Växjö Antalya Mai 05

Ryanair Inverness Dublin ? 14 Iberia Hanover Madrid ?3 Transun Inverness "Cyprus" Apr 05 15 hlx Hannover Bilbao Mrz 054 Thomson Inverness "Turkey" Jun 05 16 hlx Hannover Rijeka Mrz 055 Thomson Inverness "Portugal" Mai 05 17 hlx Hannover Rome Ciampino Mrz 056 Thomson Inverness Palma de Mallorca Jun 06 18 hlx Hannover Salzburg Nov 047 Thomson Inverness "Italy" Jul 06 10 Hapag Lloyd Bremen Hurghada Nov 048 Thomson Inverness Lanzarote Jun 04 20 Transavia Groningen Tenerife Sud Nov 049 Britannia Stavanger Hurghada Mrz 05 21 Transavia Groningen Las Palmas Nov 04

10 City Star Airlines Stavanger Kristiansund Okt 05 22 Jetair Oostende Las Palmas Dez 0416 Unknown Stavanger Aruba 05/06

8 New Routes Inverness


5 New Routes Hannover


5 New Routes Scandinavia


4 New Routes other


Results for Bremen


Bremen 2002 2006 ex ante Change ATHPassengers 1,639,015 1,784,204 145,189 14,560A/C movements 44,792 46,054 1,262 102

New Routes BRI CMN GRO HRGPassengers 9,711 5,740 7,780 13,526A/C movements 68 43 60 102

New Routes KVA LCA MAD MBAPassengers 11,993 11,710 68,442 7,164A/C movements 85 77 1,326 43

New Routes MLA PUJ PVK REUPassengers 9,394 13,216 10,497 6,660A/C movements 68 102 77 51

Consultation in Bremen


From 13 suggested routes just 1 is for scheduled service, while all other focus on holiday destinations.

Only 1 of the suggested holiday routes was implemented. In addition the tour operator owing Hapagfly, home base charter carrier at BRE, reorganised its network, meaning a serious reduction of holiday destinations ex BRE in 2006 (and from other airports in .de although high loads)

network carrier reduced their presence at Bremen (outsourcing of hub connections, or give up routes)

new answers have to be found to such challenges: development of options for new or modified services

Further Options for Routes


Implementation of suggested routes by LCC instead of charter or network carrier, with or without a variation of suggested airport: The suggested flights HAJ - RJK for charter, are actually run by Hapag-Lloyd Express (with medium sized a/c, up to 3 times a week)

New LC services to additional airports in cities already connected to a SEAPLANE airport ,like the new flights from Bremen to London Luton by easyJet

Implementation or take over of existing routes by low cost or regional carrier instead of network or charter carrier, with or without code-share / interlining tariffs, ...

New routes beyond given limit (50’000 pax) with small a/c ...

Thank you for your attention.


Documents

The SEAPLANE Project 3. November 2005, Bergamo Dr Benedikt Mandel MKmetric Gesellschaft für Systemplanung mbH, Karlsruhe Activity 3 Airport passenger market