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Blake et al. (2013)NHC report on Sandy
numbers aredates in October
Yellow = tropical stormRed = cat 1 hurricaneMagenta = cat 2
Biography of a hurricane
The Madden-Julian oscillation – a natural fluctuation of the tropicalclimate
Source: Matt Wheeler, Centre for Australian Climate and Weather Researchcawcr.gov.au
Outgoing longwave radiation 15S-15N
Blue = rainyOrange = clear
longitude
time->
Aug 2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
The Madden-Julian oscillation – a natural fluctuation of the tropicalclimate
Source: Matt Wheeler, Centre for Australian Climate and Weather Researchcawcr.gov.au
longitude
time->
Aug 2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Outgoing longwave radiation 15S-15N
Blue = rainyOrange = clear
The Madden-Julian oscillation – a natural fluctuation of the tropicalclimate
Source: Matt Wheeler, Centre for Australian Climate and Weather Researchcawcr.gov.au
longitude
time->
Aug 2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Outgoing longwave radiation 15S-15N
Blue = rainyOrange = clear
The Madden-Julian oscillation – a natural fluctuation of the tropicalclimate
Source: Matt Wheeler, Centre for Australian Climate and Weather Researchcawcr.gov.au
longitude
time->
Aug 2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Outgoing longwave radiation 15S-15N
Blue = rainyOrange = clear
Sandy formed as an active MJO passed through the northAtlantic basin – so it had Pacific ancestry
Blake et al. (2013), NHC report on Sandy
--
The other player was the North Atlantic Oscillation, naturalfluctuation of the high-latitude jet stream
source: ldeo.columbia.edu
+ -
--
The other player was the North Atlantic Oscillation, naturalfluctuation of the high-latitude jet stream
source: ldeo.columbia.edu
+
Jet stream shifted south,cold in eastern US
Source: NOAA CPC, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
+ -
In mid-October the NAO was heading into strongly negativeterritory, conducive to cold-air outbreaks in eastern US
And on Oct. 20, 2012, blocking high (typical of negative NAO) moves into the western north Atlantic
500 hPa geopotential height
And on Oct. 20, 2012, blocking high moves into thewestern north Atlantic
500 hPa geopotential height
Jet sream H
Oct. 22, 2012, NHC names Tropical Depression 18, thena few hours later upgrades to Tropical Storm Sandy
GOES visible satellite image 10/22 at 15 UTChttp://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/
Sandy near landfall was declared “post-tropical” –note high asymmetry (false color IR)
Because of this, no hurricane warnings were issued north of NC, causing some confusion…
NYC storm surge
• Landfall in Jersey at sharp angle moving westward
• Winds are stronger to right of track
• Onshore winds
• Very large wind field
• Worst possible situation
Sandy
1903
1938
1893
IreneDonna (1960)
Historic Hurricane landfalls in NY/NJ Figure by Tim Hall, NASA GISS
Synthetic track model says NJ landfall at cat 1+ at Sandy’s angle is a 700 yr event. Flood return time is probably shorter.Not accounting for climate change.
T. Hall and A. H. Sobel, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.
Sandy1903 “vagabond”
synthetic storms
Sandy
Scileppi and Donnelly, 2007, Geochem. Geophys. Geosys.
Storm tide at Battery highest ever recorded by tide gauge(since 1920); 1821 may have had larger storm surge
Zhao et al. (2009) Journal of Climate
Our latest and best models give a mixed predictions about howthe number of hurricanes will change in a warming climate
Fractional changeIn number of N. Atlantic Hurricanes
Different climate models
Dan Shaevitz, Suzana Camargo, US CLIVAR HurricaneWorking Group, NOAA/GFDL model
But we do have some confidence that the most intense storms will become stronger still
Dan Shaevitz, Suzana Camargo, US CLIVAR HurricaneWorking Group, NOAA/GFDL model
But we do have some confidence that the most intense storms will become stronger still
But Sandy was not so intense (cat 1) at landfall… the large surge was due to:
• Its huge size, due to extratropical transition – we know nothing about what warming will do to that;
• Its track – we know little about what warming will do to that, but…
Distorted jet, a la Sandy, has been associated with polar amplified global warming (Francis and Vavrus 2012)…
But climate models give the opposite result (E. Barnes, L. Polvani, AHS)
The really clear and simple link to climate is via sea level rise.
Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010, Science
1 meter
With 1m sea level rise, depending on projections of TC change,can get increase of ~2-20 in flood frequency. (i.e. 20 means 100-year flood becomes 5-year)
Lin et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change 2, 462-467.
With 1m sea level rise, depending on projections of TC change,can get increase of ~2-20 in flood frequency. (i.e. 20 means 100-year flood becomes 5-year)
Lin et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change 2, 462-467.
With 1m sea level rise, depending on projections of TC change,can get increase of ~2-20 in flood frequency. (i.e. 20 means 100-year flood becomes 5-year)
Lin et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change 2, 462-467.
With this model, 1000-year floodbecomes 70-year