The San Simeon and Parkfield Earthquakes

What the CISN did well(and could have been done better)

M3 quake ≠ M6+ quake

• Big quakes – Have extended source regions– Are infrequent– Exercise software in unexpected

ways– Shine spotlights on systems

deficiencies– Overwhelm humans

unaccustomed to response pressures and demand for information

– Rarely happen when convenient

San SimeonMw6.5 Earthquake

• Quake occurred December 22, 2003 at 11:15:56 AM (PST)– Monday– Staff gone for

vacation• Instrumentation was

(and still is) sparse• Instrumentation was

(and still is) analogQuake occurred on edge of NC/SC networks

12/22/2003 19:15:56 00:00:00Rupture initiates

12/22/2003 19:16:20 00:00:24

?

Quick Look Hypocenter

12/22/2003 19:20:25 00:04:29Final hypocenter & Md 5.6

12/22/2003 19:20:58 00:05:02ML 6.4

12/22/2003 19:22:40 00:06:44Mechanism & Mw 6.5

12/22/2003 19:24:13 00:08:171st ShakeMap - ML 6.4

12/22/2003 19:38:28 00:22:32ShakeMap update - Mw 6.5

San Simeon “Human” Time-line

Time Elapsed(GMT) hr:mn:sc

19:32:00 00:16:04 Seismologist review and aftershock probabilities

20:00:00 00:44:04 OES conference call with CISN scientists20:16:00 01:00:04 First HAZUS runs completed20:30:00 01:14:04 Release of Internet Quick Report21:54:00 02:38:04 Seismologist review of finite source

12/22/2003 20:30:00 01:14:041st Internet Quick Report

02:38:04

12/22/2003 22:14:00 02:58:04ShakeMap update

12/22/2003 23:33:00 04:17:04ShakeMap update - line source

12/23/2003 02:34:00 07:18:04ShakeMap update - Templeton data

12/24/2003 00:28:00 29:12:04ShakeMap update - Cambria data

12/23/2003 17:34:00 22:18:04Special Earthquake Report

The Evolution of ShakeMap & HAZUS estimates ShakeMap UTC Time Building related

economic loss (Millions)

1st ShakeMap (ML6.4) 12/22 19:24:13

$30.5

ShakeMap Update: Finite-source dimension

12/22 23:33:00

$64.1

ShakeMap Update: Templeton, CA data added

12/23 02:34:00

$290.0

ShakeMap Update: Cambria, CA data added

12/24 00:28:00

$264.4

“Current” ShakeMap 03/24 $325.4

J. Fenton

So far, so good….Here’s what could have gone better

1. Technical issues– Competing EqintheNews pages on USGS servers in

Golden, CO and Menlo Park, CA (fixed)– No ability to update aftershock probabilities (now can

be done manually)– Clients inundated with automated email/pager

(potentially solvable)– Akamai/Reston firewall problems blocked recenteqs

access (fixed)– CIT ShakeMap data exchange broken (fixed)– Dedicated com links from Parkfield broke (fixed)

2. Human Response– Inconsistent statements on mapped fault and name

of quake on Day 1– No communications with ShakeMap users about

ShakeMap updates– Failure to exercise existing response procedures– SC "duty seismologist" for ShakeMap unknown in

NC– ~2 days to establish an internal scientific email

distribution list and ftp site– No 7 X 24 contact for USGS networking/security

staff. Even after contact, fix took almost 2 weeks.

• Limited station coverage and strong motion data in region compromised ShakeMap quality and science

Distribution of ShakeMap stations

= RT = Non-RT

3. Data Quality

• Prototype operational– better locations– detected more

earthquakes

4. Statewide pick exchange and association

ParkfieldOverview

• Quake occurred Tuesday, September 28, 2004 at 11:15:56 AM (PST)– Key personnel in St.

Louis for National Earthquake Conference

• Quake occurred within densely instrumented portion of NC network– SM data mostly non-RT

Parkfield time-line

Earthquake Information UTC Time Elapsed time hr:mn:scOrigin Time (OT) 09/28 17:15:24 00:00:00Quick Look hypocenter 09/28 17:15:55 00:00:31Final hypocenter & Md 5.8 09/28 17:19:57 00:04:33

First Motion mechanism 09/28 17:20:10 00:04:46Local Magnitude ML 6.0 09/28 17:20:30 00:05:06

1st ShakeMap completed 09/28 17:21:16 00:05:52Moment Tensor Solution Mw 5.9 09/28 17:22:23 00:06:59

2nd ShakeMap completed 09/28 17:28:08 00:07:44MS relocated by duty seismologist 09/28 17:46:-- 00:31:--Analyst review of moment tensor 09/28 17:47:-- 00:32:--ShakeMap update due to relocation 09/28 17:53:-- 00:38:--Finite fault line source 09/20 17:54:-- 00:39Probability statement released for ML5.9 09/28 18:00:-- 00:45:--

ShakeMap update with manual finite fault 09/28 18:20:-- 01:05:--Update to Mw6.0 & probability revision 09/28 18:23:-- 01:08:--ShakeMap update with 6 stations 09/28 21:18:-- 04:03:--Earthquake Report at cisn.org 09/28 21:45:-- 04:30:--1st Internet Quick Report at cisn-edc.org 09/29 01:56:-- 08:41:--ShakeMap update with 1 added station 09/29 05:20:-- 12:05:--Four additional IQR releases 09/29-10/27

ShakeMap updates with CGS/NSMP data 10/08 --:--:-- 10 days

Autom

atic

OE

S/C

ISN

exchange

Locations almost perfect

100 km distance weighting

28 SEP 2004, 17:15 SEQUENCE NO. 1, ID NO. 51147892 ADJUSTMENTS (KM) I ORIGIN LAT N LON W Z NWR RMS DT DLAT DLON DZ RR NF MOD 1 23.98 35 50.15 120 21.53 5.00 250 1.59 0.600 -6.516 7.195 0.000 9.707 3 PGH 2 24.58 35 46.63 120 26.32 5.00 250 1.00 -0.015 -0.476 0.404 0.000 0.624 3 PGH FREE DEPTH 3 24.57 35 46.38 120 26.58 5.00 250 1.00 -0.453 0.106 0.273 -4.461 4.470 4 PGH BEGIN DISTANCE WEIGHTING BEGIN RESIDUAL WEIGHTING DEPTH ADJUSTMENT DAMPED 4 24.11 35 46.43 120 26.77 0.54 49 0.75 9.804 3.234 -4.745 15.70216.719 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 5 33.92 35 48.18 120 23.61 16.24 51 9.97 -5.882 -1.940 2.847 -9.42110.032 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 6 28.03 35 47.13 120 25.50 6.82 51 3.82 -2.353 -0.776 1.139 -3.769 4.013 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 7 25.68 35 46.71 120 26.26 3.05 51 1.69 -0.941 -0.310 0.456 -1.507 1.605 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 8 24.74 35 46.55 120 26.56 1.54 51 0.98 -0.376 -0.124 0.182 -0.603 0.642 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 9 24.36 35 46.48 120 26.68 0.94 49 0.81 -0.151 -0.050 0.073 -0.241 0.257 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 10 24.21 35 46.45 120 26.73 0.70 49 0.77 -0.060 -0.020 0.029 -0.096 0.103 4 PGH DEPTH ADJUSTMENT DAMPED 11 24.15 35 46.44 120 26.75 0.60 49 0.75 9.334 3.234 -4.736 15.61116.631 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK

24 hours

10 days later

Web traffic• Request or hit

count peak of 630,000/min (10,500/sec)

• 300,000 different IP addresses on day 1

• 100GB transferred on day 1 (typically 8 GB)

Did You Feel It?

• 7,000 questionnaires submitted for this event in the first hour

• 14,174 total

4:30

8:41

Parkfield Issues

• Technical– Mainshock and two M5 aftershocks initially mislocated

(fixed)– Strong motion data exchange from CGS hung (fixed?)– Reviewed Mw update had to be forced (not fixed)– Incorrect aftershock M5 magnitudes (fixed?)

• Human– Duty seismologist failed to follow procedures and

aftershock message was delayed– Staff overload because key individuals in St Louis

• Data– Most strong-motion data non-RT and recorded on film

Summary

• CISN delivered rapid and reliable information for San Simeon and Parkfield quakes.

• Technical “glitches” were addressable

• Human “glitches” challenging

• Limited instrumentation and data quality remain a significant impediment