The SAMPERS project- an over view

By Gunnar Johansson Sveder

Transek AB

Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden

Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax: +46 8 735 20 30

e-mail: gunnarj@transek.se, web: www.Transek.se

28 April 1999 2

Background

• Long tradition of cost-benefit analysis of investment projects

• Long tradition of modelling - from 4-step to disaggregate systems

• SAMPLAN, extensive co-operation between agencies responsible for – road, rail, air, sea

• National transportation plan, investment plan, transportation policy:– maintenance, taxation, road

pricing, technical development, regulations

• Evaluation of alternative scenarios the society– efficiency, environment, safety,

regional balance

• Detailed cost-benefit analysis

28 April 1999 3

The old national traffic forecast system

National road network data bank

Public transport(train, bus, air ) Maps

EMME/2 GIS

FREDRIKregional trips

Socio-economic data

IC/3long distance

Car owner ship

EVACBA - assessment

28 April 1999 4

The project

• Contract April 1998

• New traffic demand models– Current data

• National travel survey (1994-1997)

• SP-survey (time of day)

• Fehmarn Belt, Öresund

– All trips• Regional

• National long distance

• International

– Time of day modelling• Long distance public transport trips

– Secondary destination• Regional trips

• Computer System– EMME/2

– Plenty of forecast parameters

– Integrated into one single user-friendly system

• Car ownership

• Demand models

• Impact calculation

• Cost benefit analysis

• Accessibility calculation

– Flexibility to output data

• Validation

• Delivery, spring and autumn 1999

28 April 1999 5

Data assembling

Quality control

Trips construction

Estimation

Client approval

Model implementation

Validation (Survey, Elasticity)

Validation (Traffic counts)

The project process

28 April 1999 6

Train Pedesr. BikeCar dr. Car pas. Bus

Dest1…n

Trip No trip

Bf Bp B T G C

Dest1…n

Bf Bp B T G C

Dest1…n

Bf Bp B T G C

Dest1…n

Home based Secondary destination Working place based

……. ……. …….

Trip No trip

Befolkningsutveckling 1993 - 2010

2 100

1 050

210

-210

-1 050

-2 100

Demand models - Regional trips

• Nested logit models– Secondary destinations

• Trip purposes– Home-work trip

– Recreation

– Personal visits

– School trips

– Business

– and other

• Sweden divided into five regions

• Total 8000 zones

28 April 1999 7

Demand models - National long distance trips

• Nested logit models– Time table assignment

– Time of day models

• Trip purposes– Business

• Duration 0 days

• Duration 1+days

– Private• Duration 1 day

• Duration 2-5 days

• Duration 5+ days

• Total 670 zonesCar

Trip No trip

Bus IC train

X2000train

Air

Destinations

Trip frequency

Destination

Mode

Time of day

Type of ticket

98-10-16 10:45MODULE: 6.26TRANSEK5.. .Chr

EMME/2 PROJECT: SAMPERS-modellSCENARIO : 9731 Period 3, Dag 1 (tisdag)

TRANSIT LINES: 33 LINES

3900 3906

3907 3902

3805

3813 3863 3861 3800 3853 3811 3821 3801 3865

3810

3721

3728

3942 3700

3703

3704

3502

3503

3500

0

50

100

150

200

km

16h00 16h30 17h00 17h30 18h00 18h30 19h00 19h30 20h00 20h30 21h00 21h30 22h00 22h30

28 April 1999 8

Impact & Cost benefit analysis

• Energy consumption– Petrol, Diesel

– Costs

• Exhaust emissions– NOx, HC, Particulate, CO2,

SO2

– Costs

• Traffic safety– Number of killed

– Number of severely injured

– Number of slightly injured

– Wildlife accidents

• Costs– Maintenance costs

– Consumer surplus

– CBA

28 April 1999 9

Computer system

• Technology– Windows NT

– Database• Access (ODBC)

– Software• Visual Basic 5

• PowerPlay

– Object oriented approach

• Multiprocessing

• Export file format– EMME/2

• Data bas

• Filter matrices

– Excel• Standard report

– GIS• MapInfo/ArcView

– Micro simulation system• Contram

• ...

28 April 1999 10

Computer system

Long dist.trip

Data base

SAMPERS Scenario handler system

Regional trip

Emme/2 PowerPlay

ImpactCBA

Internat.trip

28 April 1999 11

Model validation

• No “Base matrix”

• Model estimation– Value of time

– Elasticity

• After implementation– Elasticity

– Model vs Survey • Trip frequency by mode and trip

propose

• Trip length

• Traffic production (mileage)

• Assigned traffic – Counts

• Roads

• Trains

• Airports

• Ferries

28 April 1999 12

Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Hom

e-work

Oth

er pers

onel

Lesiu

re

Private

vis

its

School

Busin

ess

Total

28 April 1999 13

Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Bike

Bus

Train

Car d

r.

Car p

ass

Pedest

rian

28 April 1999 14

South region, number of home-work trips by travel distance in km

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

0-2,52,5-5

5-10

10-1515-20

20-2525-30

30-3535-40

40-4545-50 50-

Survey

Model

28 April 1999 15

Traffic production, km per day

02000000400000060000008000000

1000000012000000140000001600000018000000

Bike

Bus

Train

Car d

r.

Car p

ass

Pedest

rian

Survey

Model

28 April 1999 16

Road traffic south of Malmö city

28 April 1999 17

Road traffic west regionLINK SCATTERGRAM

99-05-02 10:39MODULE: 2.43TRANSEK5.. ..ks

EMME/2 PROJECT: VAST fr 3000 zonerSCENARIO : 1000 Bilnt 1997 Vst-Tass

LINKS: !ul1=0

391 LINKS

REGR: Y=A+BXA= -242.416B= .884073R2= .94368STD= 1177.299

2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 22500 25000 27500 30000

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

20000

22500

25000

UL1

UL2

28 April 1999 18

Road traffic around the city of Jönköping

LNKFLDEN, BIL

99-04-30 09:58MODULE: 2.13TRANSEK5.. .Chr

EMME/2 PROJECT: SYDOST fr 3000 zonerSCENARIO : 2000 Bil 1997

WINDOW:1375.8/ 6375.81429.1/6415.73

LINKS: mod=c

langv privlangv tjreg arbetereg vrigt

LAYERS:

SCALE: 651.5

28 April 1999 19

Passenger in the Stockholm underground system

28 April 1999 20

Future possibilities

• Options– Integration of a new car owner

ship model, liked by logsum variables to the demand model

– Integration of land use model