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Andy Sutton Principal Network Architect Network Strategy 4th November 2014
The Route to 5G
Contents
1. We’ve come a long way in a short period of time…
2. Short-medium term traffic forecasts
3. What’s driving future growth
4. Forecasting average usage per user
5. User behaviour
6. Longer term forecasts and the impact of video
7. EE and 5G
8. 5G technical research topics
9. Summary
2
We’ve come a long way since GSM voice… GSM – GPRS (incl. EDGE) – UMTS (incl. HSDPA/HSUPA/HSPA+) – LTE (incl. VoLTE & LTE-A)
3
Data Demand is set for considerable growth over the next 5 years as the UK becomes increasingly mobile-centric
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MONTHLY DATA DEMAND (PB)
2G
3G
4G
Smartphone penetration grows Early 4G adoption Limited LTE Device portfolio Diversification and increase in available content drives usage
Device capability drives usage LTE Device portfolio diversifies Strong growth in 4G adoption High-bandwidth services proliferate
Mature data adoption LTE devices dominate 4G becomes default technology Behavioural shifts in usage
2x 4x
6.5x
9.5x
12x
Key growth drivers
COVERAGE
DEVICES SERVICES/APPS
DEMAND
PERFORMANCE
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12x growth
2018 67% VIDEO
The increase in AUPU seen on devices using the 4G network is a key driver for growth as the 4GEE base grows
Non-4G AUPU set to double over next 5 years
5 x increase in 4G AUPU
2013 – 4G device AUPU was 50% higher than 3G device AUPU
2018 – 4G device AUPU will be 6.3 x non-4G device
Device type and performance both impact usage
Long-term UK market forecast
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Dec-15 Dec-20 Dec-25 Dec-30
Mo
nth
ly D
ata
Dem
an
d (
PB
)
E-mail/IM/Browsing/Download/MusicAugmented RealityMobile Gaming
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030
Vid
eo
Data
rate
(M
bp
s)
Vid
eo
reso
luti
on
pen
etr
ati
on
8K 4K HD SD Video Bitrate
-
200
400
600
800
Dec-15 Dec-20 Dec-25 Dec-30Mo
nth
ly D
ata
Dem
an
d
(PB
)
Non-Video Data Demand
E-mail/IM/Browsing/Download/Music etc.
Augmented Reality
Mobile Gaming Other services will emerge and drive new revenue opportunities and capacity challenges
Streaming and video resolution are key drivers of long-term growth
22x
68% non-video demand
2030 76%
DEMAND VIDEO
The latest hype?
EE is pro-actively contributing to the 5G eco-system
• Platinum Founding Member of the 5G Innovations Centre at the University of Surrey
• Supporting UK Government’s objective to ensure the UK is a major player in 5G networks and services research and development - knowledge economy
• Supporting EU Horizon 2020 bids on behalf of UK academic organisations; financing leading edge research in the UK
• Working within International industry fora to develop 5G research and further understanding
• Engagements with global partners to influence the development of the 5G eco-system
Our 5G strategy?
“The same as our 4G strategy – always stay one step ahead of demand for capacity, peak & average speeds, low-latency
and innovative services.”
Sharing
SON
Security… Massive MIMO
Full duplex
NFV SDN
Ultra-high definition video
And what does 5G look like….
5G Network (with 4G and evolved WiFi)
Ultra high capacity
On demand services
Ultra low-latency
Ultra reliable
Always sufficient rate (speed)
Wide area coverage
In-building coverage
Stadiums and hot-spots
New spectrum
Ultra dense networks
New waveforms
Separation of control and user plane
Energy efficient
Application aware
Seamless mobility
Device to device
Internet of Things
Summary
• 4G is the start of true mobile broadband – an IP based multi-media communications system
• Demand is huge, and will keep growing
• We will continue to evolve 4G to increase capacity, increase speeds and enhance the experience
• 5G is at the fundamental research stage, but will complement 4G networks
• 5G will support ultra dense networks with even higher peak and average data rates, with ultra low-latency to enable the tactile web and immersive real-time video
• 4G can take us to 1Gbps; 5G is everything beyond that…
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