The Role of Renewable Fuels in Decarbonizing Road Transport · •The input file data of each country case was implemented into “ALIISA”, a Finnish-made model for calculating

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The Role of Renewable Fuels in Decarbonizing Road Transport

Scenarios and Contributions

in Selected Countries

Juhani Laurikko, VTT

IEA Bioenergy Webinar, 17/11/2020

• Specific country assessments were performed for:

• FINLAND (a model case, previously executed)

• SWEDEN

• GERMANY

• USA

• BRAZIL

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Country Assessments – General Outline

• First, Each Country Expert delivered an input data file, based on Stated Policy, consisting of separate sheets for:

• Fuel Standards and Sales of Different Fuel Types

• Projected Vehicle Sales per fuel type (and class)

• Expected Transport Work and Fuel Consumption

• Outlook on Biofuel Production and Raw Materials

• Data on Electricity Generation (for the electrofuels study)

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• The input file data of each country case was implemented into “ALIISA”, a Finnish-made model for calculating transport fuel use and the associated CO2-emissions from road vehicles

• Main variables in the input data for each vehicle category were:

• Market share (%) of each fuel/energy option

• Annual average (or total) mileages

• Specific fuel/energy consumption per vehicle category

• Vehicle categories were:

• Cars, Vans & LD Trucks, Buses, Medium & Heavy-Duty Trucks

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Country Assessments – General Outline• Vehicle powertrain/fuel options were:

• Gasoline (SI), FFV (E85), Diesel (CI), GNG/LNG, PHEV(SI), PHEV(CI), BEV, H2FCVEV

• Fuel/energy options were:

• Fossil gasoline

• Fossil diesel

• Ethanol, E5/E10/E27/E85/E100

• Renewable diesel fuel(s)

• Electricity

• Hydrogen

• These options were available for each vehicle category (car, van,

bus, trucks), but not necessarily used

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H2

Country Assessments – General Outline• The output of the process was

• Vehicle park composition

• per vehicle category and fuel/energy option

• Annual mileages – per vehicle and total for vehicle type

• Use of fuel types

• gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, methane, electricity, H2• in litres or kg’s etc.

• in ktoe and PJ, and

• divided per vehicle and fuel category

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H2


• Based on this implementation, it was possible to calculate

for each Case Country:

• Progression of CO2 emissions,

• in total and per vehicle category

• Relative and actual amounts of biofuels

• in total and per fuel type

• Biofuel “sinks”, total and not in use in present scenario

• per fuel category

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• Furthermore, for each Case Country, it s possible to outlay

separately the contributions for the CO2 reduction by:

• Electrification of transport vehicles

• Improvements in energy efficiency

• Biofuels

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EREV

BEV

ICE-PHEV


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Current Policies – FINLAND

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Electrification

Improvement in energy efficiency

Biofuels

Current Policies – Car Sales Split

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Energy Use per Vehicle Category – 2030

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1.

1.

1.

1.

FIN SWE GER

BRAUSA

Buses Make Very Large

Contribution

Cars Dominate

Van/Truck/SUVDominate

LargestTruck

Sector

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1.

1.

1.

1.

FIN SWE GER

USA BRA

1.

Energy Use per Vehicle Category – 2050

No ApparentChange, but

Share of CarsDiminishesSomewhat

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1.

1.

1.

FIN SWE GER

BRAUSA

1. 1.

Energy Use per Carrier – 2030

Diesel DominatesRenewable

Diesel in Wide Use

GasolineDominates

Ethanolabout 25%

BiomethaneElectricity

1.

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1.

1.

1.

FIN SWE GER

USA1.

1.1.

Energy Use per Carrier – 2050

Diesel Still Dominates

RenewableDiesel Over

40 %

Gasoline Still Dominates

Ethanolabout 25%

HydrogenStarts to Show

UpElectricityNearly

MatchesGasoline

Bio-CNG

1.

Country Cases – Current Policies

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Country Cases – Additional Scenarios

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Country Assessments – Electrification

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Country Assessments – Electrification - FIN

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REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS

Country Assessments – More EV

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Country Assessments – MORE EV

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Additional Cases – MAX Biofuels - FIN

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Additional Cases – MAX Biofuels

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Country Assessments – MAX Bio

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E-Fuels Scenarios

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E-Fuels Scenarios –Demand for Electricity

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E-Fuels Scenarios – Demand for CO2

In Summary

• The Cases for Country Assessment were a Good Selection because of so Different Structure in Road Transport Vehicle Pool Compositionand Different Usage Rates of Energy Carriers

• The Current Policy Cases Lead to Reductions in TTW CO2 emissions, excluding Brazil, due to their Expected Growth in Economy

• The Contributions of Electrification, Increase in Energy Efficiency and Use of Biofuels Could be Separated

• Increasing Sales of EV’s had Moderate Returns

• Maximising Use of Biofuels Brings More CO2 Reductions and Faster

• Using Renewable Electricity to Produce eFuels is an Interesting Option, but for Complete Replacement of All Remaining Fossil Fuels the Resource-demand May be too High in Some Countries

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www.ieabioenergy.com

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

Juhani Laurikko

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]

Documents

The Role of Renewable Fuels in Decarbonizing Road Transport · •The input file data of each country case was implemented into “ALIISA”, a Finnish-made model for calculating