THE ROLE OF EMOTIONS – HOW DO THEY AFFECT OPINIONS?By

Alan Fry

Rizwana Ahmed

OUTLINE

• Questions from the 2013 British Election Survey

• Three classes of models of the structure

• Emotions understanding 1984 US Elections

• Anxiety and Enthusiasm

Using the 0 to 10 scale, where 10 means strongly like, and 0 means strongly dislike, how do you feel about David Cameron?

10 – Strongly like

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0 – Strongly dislike

Don’t know

 PAGE 26BASE: AllUsing the 0 to 10 scale, where 10 means strongly like, and 0 means strongly dislike, how do you feel about Nick Clegg?10 – Strongly like9876543210 – Strongly dislikeDon’t know

Which, if any, of the following words describe your feelings about the country’s general economic situation? (Please tick up to FOUR)[MULTICODE]

[Angry

Happy

Disgusted

Hopeful

Uneasy

Confident

Afraid

Proud

No feelings Don’t know

Thinking about how well democracy works in this country, on the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, a little dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the way that democracy works in this country?Very satisfiedFairly satisfiedA little dissatisfiedVery dissatisfiedDon't know

THE EMOTION FOR THE BRITISH ELECTION SURVEY OF BRITAIN SEPTEMBER 2013 INFORMATION

_cons 3.602559 .1595122 22.58 0.000 3.289571 3.915546

clegg .6222483 .0292387 21.28 0.000 .5648774 .6796192

miliband -.4090144 .026426 -15.48 0.000 -.4608664 -.3571624

cameron Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

Total 9066.00815 1086 8.3480738 Root MSE = 2.2745

Adj R-squared = 0.3803

Residual 5607.99285 1084 5.17342513 R-squared = 0.3814

Model 3458.0153 2 1729.00765 Prob > F = 0.0000

F( 2, 1084) = 334.21

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1087

Total 568.55998 518.44002 1,087

10 15.674249 15.518124 31.192373

9 20.561808 9.25602057 29.817829

8 22.467335 38.206839 60.674174

7 50.438373 88.938156 139.37653

6 48.433348 59.226741 107.66009

5 79.6317517 61.89321 141.52496

4 75.807203 37.852608 113.65981

3 55.966076 45.508297 101.47437

2 48.43858 39.213615 87.652195

1 38.794483 23.141611 61.936094

0 112.34678 99.684794 212.03157

cameron 0 1 Total

gender

EMOTION DIMENSION

In a study of political communications, Roseman, Abelson, and Ewing (1986) report four dimensions.

In a study of economic issues, Conover and Feldman (1986) report three dimensions.

In a study of candidate appraisal, Abelson and his colleagues (1982) report two dimension

George Marcus “variation obtained using feeling thermometer measures are two dimensions of emotional response, mastery (positive emotionality) and threat (negative emotionality”

Three classes of models of the structure of affect are generally used: valence models, discrete models and circumplex models

Valence: study of beliefs and attitudes affect is defined as the evaluative

dimension of an attitude

Attitudes are composed of three dimensions: affect, behavioral disposition, and cognition

feeling thermometers are the most frequent application of valence models of affect

discrete models different emotions are identified as "alternative appraisals of events"

(Roseman 1984)

Davies (1980) identifies seven principal affects, Izard (1971, 1977) pro- posed a 10-fundamental-emotions model. Roseman (1979 has proposed 13 fundamental emotions that characterize the structure of emotions

fear or distress if control of the situation is attributed to oneself, anger or hatred if control is attributed to someone else.

In particular, discrete models that evaluation is to be understood in more strategic terms by positing a link between specific adaptive benefit (Pluthik 1980)

Circumplex Models

Defined the structure of affect as a two dimensional circumplex (Pluthik 1980; Russell 1980; Zevon and Tellegen 1982).

two dimensions are generally identified as positive emotionality and negative emotionality

circumplex model resolves why different studies have reported more than two dimensions

discrete model perspective, using measures intended to demonstrate the distinct influences of each primary emotion, have found, to the contrary, two dimensions of affect-positive and negative.

1984 NES PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

The 1984 NES data afford an opportunity to compare the circumplex model of emotion against valence and discrete models as it applies to emotional response to presidential candidate

1984 NES were asked to regard the presidential candidates and asked if "something about that person, or something he has done has made you have certain feelings like anger or pride. “Marcus”

Evaluating how much influence cognitive and emotional appraisals have, especially with respect to causality, is problematic, given the current state of knowledge.

Brody and Page (1973), Kelley and Mirer (1974) and Rahn and her colleagues (n.d.) argue that people compare candidate images, summarizing judgments and feelings so as to form a voting decision based on which candidate fares better in the comparative process

The circumplex model provides an economical approach to the study of emotional response

two concurrent appraisal processes, one strategically dedicated to self initiating action and one strategically dedicated to evaluating threat

The relationship between the structure of emotions and candidate appraisal can also be useful in gaining a better under- standing of the likely success of different strategies of political campaigning

running a campaign based on matching the issue positions of the voters has limited prospects for strengthening a candidate's image of leadership and competence.

issue positions of a candidate are seen to be discrepant from the issue positions of the voters, candidates risk arousing feelings of anxiety and threat among voters

It is important to add that threat feelings are elicited by the prospect of an unpredictable environment as well as by that of a hostile environment (Gray 1981).

It is perhaps appropriate to reexamine the received wisdom that emotions constitute "a regrettable imperfection in an otherwise perfect cognitive machine" (Scherer 1982).

EMOTIONAL RESPONSES

two distinct dynamic emotional responses play influential roles during election campaigns: anxiety and enthusiasm

Anxiety is defined responding to threat and novelty, stimulates attention toward the campaign and political learning and discourages reliance on habitual cues for voting.

Enthusiasm is defined powerfully influences candidate preferences and stimulates interest and involvement in the campaign

CITIZENS TO GET INVOLVED

Marcus and Mackuen argues, In particular, the analyses we shall present argue that threat powerfully motivates citizens to learn about politics

Generally inattentive to political matters, citizens may require sharp notice before they become motivated to learn anything new.

ability of political leaders to generate enthusiasm stimulates political involvement. This second claim has a long-standing and long recognized status

FIND OUT

fear (anxiety) and enthusiasm are distinctive emotional responses to political candidates and thereby eliminate a simple "valence" view of emotions.

Second, people's anxiety and enthusiasm varies with political events and is not a permanent feature of individual personalities.

Third, anxiety and enthusiasm play distinctive parts in the voting decision.

Fourth, anxiety, rather than enthusiasm, moves people to learn policy-related information about candidates.

a two-dimensional typology of emotional response that clearly distinguishes anxiety from such emotions as depression (e.g., Ax 1953; Diener and Emmons 1985; Plutchik 1980; Russell 1980; Tellegen 1985

emotional response has proven a powerful schema for the analysis of citizen response to political candidates (Abelson et al. 1982; Marcus 1988b; Masters and Sullivan 1989; Sullivan and Masters 1988).

The second class of emotional arousal monitors current behavior

The behavioral approach system provides active feedback of our ongoing behavior and marshals the physical and mental resources necessary for success.

When voters respond to a candidate with enthusiasm, they are not merely evincing passive sympathetic reactions but sharing convictions and commitment to common endeavors

a view that emotionality affects how people approach politics and emotions are complex and subtle

dual-system model that produces complex emotions as a mixture of two distinct types: enthusiasm and anxiety

first, ongoing emotional monitoring system, governs how far people allow themselves to engage with candidates and with politics more generally.

The second, behavioral inhibition, spurs people to pay closer and more attention to political matters

enthusiasm increases campaign involvement and anxiety enhances learning.

First, finding that people's approach to politics depends on their emotional state tells that "voter" model should include a conditional component

anxiety, citizens activate their political consciousness; in states of enthusiasm, they engage their hearts in political affairs

anxiety and enthusiasm suggests that voters' emphasis on conscious rational choice will be conditioned on their emotional state

individual voters thus act differently under different conditions, we can expect that the quality of the entire electorate's behavior will vary

Marcus and Mackuen wrote “exploring the connection between emotions and political consciousness should yield much. We shall begin to appreciate how democracy handles changing social, economic, and political circumstances. At the very least, we shall begin to understand that the politics of emotion and rationality are closely intertwined. “

OVERVIEW Emotional Reactions to the Economy

Theory

Affects and Cognitions

Methods

Findings

Implications of emotions

Emotions, Issue Importance and Political Learning

Theory

Emotions and Learning

Knowledge & Importance

Results

EMOTIONAL REACTIONS TO THE ECONOMY(CONOVER, FELDMAN)

Aim:

Theoretically explore the general role of emotions in political evaluation.

Empirically examine how emotional reactions to the economy have influenced evaluations of the economic performance of the Reagan administration.

THEORY

Current researchers depict individual as a “rational” information processor who carefully reviews available information about the economy, and then uses it in the most “logical and efficient way possible” to make political evaluations.

However, this view ignores the idea of EMOTIONS.

Clearly there is an emotional side to how people react to the economy e.g. feeling worried about unemployment or angry at rise in inflation. Or positive feelings like being satisfied with income, or hopeful about the economy.

Affects and Cognition

They both constitute distinguishable, independent systems of evaluation

Affect: A “generic term encompassing things such as feelings, moods and emotions” – mostly focusing on emotions for this case.

Cognition: Refers to “knowing” – “the representation of knowledge and the processes involved in acquiring such information”.

Why do they make this distinction?

WHY DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THEM?

Affective reactions to stimuli are basic and inescapable – it is difficult for us to understand something without evaluating it.

Affective reactions don’t depend on cognition – we can react to something without recognising the stimuli (Zajonc: mere exposure effect)

So affective reactions don’t depend on recalled cognition or information – they’re based on the reactions to the stimulus at the time its presented.

Affective judgements are more enduring and less vulnerable to persuasion than cognitive judgements and not subject to pressure of cognitive consistency.

WHAT DOES THIS DISTINCTION IMPLY FOR HOW ECONOMIC CONDITIONS INFLUENCE POLITICAL EVALUATION?

Because we have distinguished between affective reactions and cognition, affective reactions can give us new information about how people react to economic conditions. Why?

(1) People can react to the economy in emotional terms without fully processing the actual information – most people skim through politics and only remember bits. Even if we don’t cognitively process the information, we may still feel emotions about it.

(2) Even when we significantly react both emotionally and cognitively to economic information, the original information is soon forgotten and all that’s left is the emotion of the initial response.

(3) If someone doesn’t respond emotionally or cognitively, it is more likely that the cognitions will be subject to pressures towards cognitive consistency – so emotional reaction would be more accurate reflections of reactions.

COGNITION AND EMOTIONS WORKING TOGETHER

The two systems may not only work independently, but interact to influence political evaluations.

If we say cognition comes before affect, so the fact that people can have different emotional reactions to same economic conditions provides a lot of insight into how people think of the economy.

(Weiner) E.g. emotional reaction to a situation may be shaped by explanations of the situation, or alternative outcomes (Abelson) to that situation – someone who responds with anger to unemployment as opposed to someone feeling fear may be due to their understandings of what causes unemployment.

Other studies have shown that emotions have an effect on memory and judgement – so if we say affect comes before cognition, emotions would play a key role in the way we structure our perceptions of economic conditions.

METHOD

Affective variables:

Emotional arousal is problematic to measure, the study focuses on “subjective emotional experiences” - their awareness and labelling of their emotional state.

Participants were asked what they thought of the “nation’s economy” and their “personal economic situation”

5 negative emotions, 5 positive emotions

Cognitive Variables:

Cognitive variables relating to both nation’s economy and personal economic situation include the measures:

Working, Government benefits, personal finances , inflation, tax cuts.

Controlled Variables: Party Identification, education, gender, income, race

Dependent Variables:

1st measure – how would you rate his job? Excellent, pretty good, only fair, poor

2nd measure – how did he handle a) fighting inflation, b) unemployment? Excellent, pretty good, only fair, poor

3 part panel study – telephone surveys

FINDINGS

The Structure of Emotional Reactions to the Economy

Three factors for both personal economic conditions and nation’s economy - One for positive emotions, and two for negative feelings.

Positive emotions factor: hopeful, proud, happy and confident.

Negative emotions factor(s): “Angry, disgusted and frustrated” and “afraid, uneasy, frustrated”

Why distinguish negative emotions?

Having distinction between anger/disgust and fear/uneasiness could provide clues about the different ways that people think about the economy.

Weiner: The explanations that people make about a situation play an important role in what their emotional reaction to the situation will be.

People react with anger when they perceive a negative, self-related event to be externally caused and controllable by others.

Feelings of uneasiness or fear typically are reaction to negative, event believed to be externally caused and uncontrollable by others.

So applied to the economy, people may react angrily to unfavourable economic conditions if they believe it to be externally caused and controllable by others; however, should that same condition be externally caused but uncontrollable by others, they make react with uneasiness.

Nature of public’s emotional reactions

Positive emotional reactions were more common with respects to one’s own personal economic conditions, rather than with the nation’s economy.

Both types of negative feelings (angry/disgusted and uneasy/fear) were much more frequent with regards to nations economy than personal.

So not only are people less positive about the nation’s economy, but they also have more negative emotional reactions to it.

Affect and Cognition

When it comes to the nation’s economy, the two are generally relatively independent.

The strongest relationships are between those variables appointing emotional and cognitive reactions to personal economic situations. So in matters that concern our own economic conditions, there is more of an interaction between affects and cognition, whereas with national economic concerns they work relatively independent to each other. Why?

Possibility: Affective reactions may form quickly with minimum exposure to economic stimuli, whereas cognitive assessments develop more slowly and only after attention has been paid to economic information.

IMPLICATIONS OF EMOTIONS

Emotional reaction to personal situation has more of an effect on political evaluation than cognitive assessments.

Positive emotions are most prominent in influencing political evaluations

Anger/disgust at own situation has negative effect on evaluation of inflation, but not unemployment.

Fear/uneasiness impacts evaluation of unemployment, not inflation.

National level: Anger and disgust stronger effect

EMOTIONS, ISSUE IMPORTANCE AND POLITICAL LEARNING – NADEAU, NIEMI, AMATO

How do emotions influence political learning?

Marcus and MacKeun (1993) argued that “anxiety” about political issues was related to the degree to which individuals learned about the given issue.

Nadeau, Niemi and Amato took this one step further and argue that the role of “issue importance” and “hope of success” play a part in political learning also.

Knowledge and importance of issue have a reciprocal relationship.

EMOTIONS AND LEARNING

(1) Their focus was on “anxiety”; refers to a variety of emotions, summarized as “environmental threat”. Measured using questions asking whether a political issue (presidential campaign) made them feel “afraid” or “uneasy” or to feel “anger” or “disgust”

(2) Anxiety is not a permanent feature of personality because only when emotions change can they alter people’s felt need for information

They disagree with this; anxiety, if not permanent, is long-lasting in some lives e.g. minorities, French Quebeckers towards English-speaking Canadians. If it’s short-lived then it’s not really important; only relatively permanent anxiety would be politically consequential.

(3) Anxiety affects learning directly by interrupting citizen’s ordinary political activity – when people feel threatened they respond by gathering more information.

They argue that this is the case only when there is a degree of “hopefulness” or “hopelessness” in the population. Anxiety or a threat will only produce a reaction when there is hope or “expectation of success”.

KNOWLEDGE & IMPORTANCE

Looked at the effects of knowledge and importance in terms of political learning.

Study centred around the debate of preserving French language in Quebec.

Knowledge model: Background characteristics, Exposure to news & media, Importance

Importance model: Background factors, Self-interest, Social Identification, Value relevance, Anxiety-Hope, Knowledge

RESULTS

KNOWLEDGE

Language proportions: little more than 1/3 got it right, more than half claimed they do not know.

Knowledge was only high about what, at time of survey, was most recent Quebec law about language.

All variables above had meaningful effect on knowledge about the language issue

Found that out of all the factors, even after controlling for all these variables, it is importance that accounts for most of the variation – students who felt French debates were worthwhile and were determined to be served in French had more knowledge on the issue.

Anxiety only had effect on knowledge when it contributes to importance of issue.

RESULTS

IMPORTANCE

The degree to which a person is passionately concerned about and personally invested in an attitude

To find out importance of issue, they made two statements about French in Quebec

Background factors not as meaningful

Value relevance big effect on language importance.

Anxiety and hope: those who felt the French language was threatened were more likely to see it is an important issue, but only if they had some measure of hope. Those who have hope can still see it important without anxiety, but cannot see importance with just anxiety alone – those that think French is “lost cause” won’t see it as an important issue anymore, so anxiety won’t bother them; those who have hope will see it as central issue and anxiety doesn’t make a difference as they’d see it more crucial. Only with hope can anxiety alter people’s views.