The role of coal in the evolving mix Coal Day 2019... · 2019-09-05 · • Today, coal supplies one quarter of the global primary energy and generates almost 40% of the electricity

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Carlos Fernández Alvarez Senior Coal Analyst, International Energy Agency

The role of coal in the evolving mix

Tokyo, 9 September, 2019


Agenda

• Global trends in the use of coal

• Challenges for the use of coal

• Status of clean coal technologies


2018 – a remarkable year for energy

Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional performance driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices.

Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18

100

200

300

400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mto

e

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Renewables


Very different regional trends on coal consumption

The big drop in coal use in US and Europe does not offset increase in Asia

Change in coal consumption, 2018 vs 2017

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

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50.0

60.0

China India SoutheastAsia

US EU28 RoW

Mt


The scale of growth for coal has changed

The amazing growth in China in the 2000s is not going to be emulated anywhere

Annual incremental coal demand by region

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-50

0

50

100

150

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250

2001-12 2012-16 2017 2018

Mt

China India ASEAN Rest of the world


One planet, two worlds

India and southeast Asia will lead coal demand growth while it will continue to decline in Europe and United States

Coal demand in select countries/regions in 2000, 2017 and 2023 (forecast)

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500

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US EU-28 Japan Korea China India Southeast Asia

Mtc

e

2000 2017 2023Source: IEA Coal 2018 Report


Where is coal used?

The share of coal used in electricity globally has increased at the expense of residential and industrial sectors

Sectoral breakdown of coal use (1980, 2017)


A large part of the world is electricity-thirsty

Increase in coal power demand largely occurs in countries where per capita electricity use is very low

Population (left) and electricity consumption (right) in select country regions


The different paths of coal demand

Stringency of environmental policies determines coal’s fortunes in the scenarios

Source: World Energy Outlook 2018


Challenges for coal use


Higher efficiency brings clear benefits

Efficiency is pivotal for the economics of the plant and the CO2 footprint. Today’s efficiency is well below 40%, whereas the state of the art is well above 45%

Estimates for fuel costs and CO2 emissions at different efficiencies

Assuming a coal price of $70/t (6,000kcal/kg) and coal specific emissions of 94.5 kg CO2/GJ

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0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

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30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

t CO

2/M

Wh

$/M

Wh

Efficiency (%)

Fuel cost for generation (left) CO2 emissions (right)


Air pollution is a growing issue in many jurisdictions

Whereas AQCS are well known and widely used, air pollution from coal is still an important issue in many jurisdictions

Air pollution emissions in 2015 and 2040 (NPS – SDS)


Flexibility of power plants, an increasing need

The deployment of wind and solar requires flexibility across the whole electricity system

Electricity generation mix (2000, 2017, 2040 NPS)

Source: World Energy Outlook 2018


Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high in 2018

Coal, the more carbon intensive fossil fuel, is the largest CO2 contributor. Reducing CO2 emissions from coal is the main challenge to overcome for coal to have a future

Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018

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0

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MtC

O2


Status of clean coal technologies


Plants are becoming more efficient

The transition from subcritical to supercritical technologies is almost done for new plants. However, there are still a large legacy of subcritical plants in the world.


Power plants dominate flexibility options today

Power plants provide over 90% of flexibility, interconnections 5%, demand response 1% and batteries less than 1%.But to unlock latent flexibility in power plants is important to run modern electricity systems

Main technical parameters• Minimum output – less shut-downs and costs• Ramp rate and start-up time – faster response• Minimum up and down times – Flexible scheduling


CCUS, slow and imbalanced progress

Today, most CCUS is applied to gas processing.Coal, despite being the largest source of CO2, represents only a small fraction of the CO2 captured

Annual capture from large-scale CCUS facilities


Key messages

• Today, coal supplies one quarter of the global primary energy and generates almost 40% of the electricity

in the world

• Our forecast for coal consumption is to stabilize in the coming years, with different regional trends:

growth in Asia, decline in Europe and North America

• Increasing electricity consumption in Asia, owing to economic growth, universal access to electricity, and a

growing middle class is the main driver for growth of coal demand in Asia

• Increasing efficiency, reducing air pollution, enhancing flexibility in power generation and reducing the

CO2 footprint are the main areas of improvement when coal is used

• Among those challenges, a rapid and urgent scale-up of investment on CCUS should be a priority if coal is

to have a place in a sustainable future

Documents

The role of coal in the evolving mix Coal Day 2019... · 2019-09-05 · • Today, coal supplies one quarter of the global primary energy and generates almost 40% of the electricity