“The Rise of the Global State and Massively Intelligent Machines”

Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS

ARCing Mathematical Physicist andFormer Director, Artificial Brain Lab, Xiamen University, China

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I believe our global politicswill be dominated by 2 new major ideologies this century --

a) Globism (the creation of a global state (world government))

b) Cosmism (the creation of godlike massively intelligent machines)

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A) GLOBISM 3

Globism is the ideology in favor of building a democratic global state (world government)

Accelerating technologies make the creation of“Globa” more realistic.

• No more wars• No more arms trade• No more ignorance• No more poverty

GLOBISM 4

Many factors today are pushing towards the creation of a global state

The most powerful one is the growing speed of the internet.

BRAD (Bit Rate Annual Doubling)

In 30 years, the internet will be a billion times faster than today, in 40 years it will be a trillion times faster.

SO, a Global Media (“Glomedia”) will become possible giving everyone everything, i.e. all the world’s media, and in vivid 3D (“as real as real”).

FACTORS PUSHING TOWARDS 5 A GLOBAL STATE

      1.1 The Historical Size of Political Units                                     1.2 Greater tourism/travel      1.3 Economic growth      1.4 High speed trains, space planes      1.5 Internet speed doubles each year (plus other factors)                  Hence the creation of a Global Media (everyone gets all the world’s media)                   Hence the creation of a global language                  Hence cultural homogenization                       So the creation of a global state is made much easier

1.6 Economic/political blocs 6 1.7 Global Economy      1.8 World Court/International Law      1.9 Satellite TV      1.10 English, the  Global language      1.11 Global Media      1.12 Global Universities (Globiversities)      1.13 Global Media (Glomedia)      1.14 Cultural Homogenization      1.15 Global Mentality

~200 COUNTRIES COSTS OF TODAY’S GLOBAL POLITICS

  2.1 The Sovereign Nation State System vs. the Global State (World Government)  2.2 Fear - of Nuclear War  2.3 Fear  -  countries always preparing for the next war  2.4 $1.7 trillion spent each year on arms  2.5 Not tackling the planet’s problems

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WHY WE NEED A WORLD GOVERNMENT (GLOBA)

3.1 Abolishing War 3.2 Preserving the Global Commons3.3 Regulating the Global Financial System3.4 Relieving the Plight of the Third World

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BENEFITS of GLOBA

                5.1 No more wars          5.2 End of the arms trade                5.3 Everyone educated                5.4 Everyone wealthy                5.5 Greater happiness

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SKEPTICS of GLOBA 6.1 Globalony 6.2 Nationalism 6.3 National Sovereignty 6.4 Fear of Tyranny 6.5 Cultural Differences 6.6 Clash of Ideologies 6.7 Religious Differences 6.8 Charity Begins at Home 6.9 Cultural Inertia 6.10 Cultural Alienation 6.11 The Multi-Mono Clash

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ROUTES to GLOBA

7.1 A Constitutional Convention 7.2 Expand the European Union (EU)7.3 Merger of Regional Blocs7.4 Reform of the United Nations 7.5 Grass Roots Pressure7.6 A Democratizing World7.7 Dominant Bully Model 7.8 Functionalist Model 7.9 Accretion Model 7.10 Time Table to GLOBA

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INSTITUTIONS of GLOBA

                   8.1 Global Constitution                   8.2 Global President                   8.3 Global Parliament                   8.4 Global Political Parties                   8.5 Global Laws                   8.6 Global Civil Service                   8.7 Global Police                   8.8 Global Court                   8.9 Global Military                   8.10 Global Universities                   8.11 Global Education                   8.12 Global Taxation                   8.13 Global Wealth Distribution                   8.14 Global Resources                   8.15 Global Workers Unions                   8.16 Global Incomes Policies                   8.17 Global Currency Unit (the Globo)                   8.18 Global Health Insurance                                     

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TASKS of GLOBA

                    9.1 Global Ethics and Propaganda                    9.2 Global Nuclear Disarmament                    9.3 Banning the Arms Trade                    9.4 Global Environmental Challenges                    9.5 Global Poverty Elimination                    9.6 Global Taxation                    9.7 Incomes and Raw Materials Policy                    9.8 Global Education                    9.9 Global Population Migration                    9.10 Global Economics to Global Happiness                    9.11 Globa and Nanotechnology

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FIRST STEPS to GLOBA

10.1 The Strategy of Jean Monnet10.2 A Community of Democratic Nations10.3 Reform of NATO and the OECD

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B) COSMISM

The ideology in favor of humanity building godlike, massively intelligent machines

The question that will dominate our global politics this century will be --

“Should humanity build artilects (artificial intellects, with mental capacities trillions of trillions of times above the human level) in the next few decades?

This issue will divide humanity bitterly into those who “want to build gods” and those who “want to preserve human species dominance”

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DEFINITIONS

Artilect : artificial intellect, massively intelligent machineCosmist : a person who wants humanity to build artilectsTerran : a person who does not want humanity to build artilectsCyborg : cybernetic organism, part machine part humanCyborgist : a person who wants to become an artilect by adding components to his brainSpecies Dominance Debate : Should humanity build artilects in the coming decades?Artilect War : A species dominance war between the Terrans and Cosmists/Cyborgists

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THREE MAIN PHILOSOPHIES IN THE SPECIES DOMINANCE DEBATE

Cosmism, Terranism, Cyborgism

What is Cosmism?

Cosmism (based on the word cosmos) is the philosophy in favor of building artilects. Cosmists are the people who agree with Cosmist ideas.

To Cosmists, building artilects with their trillion-trillion-fold superior mental capacities compared to human beings, their million-times-faster thinking, their unlimited memory, and immortality, would be like building gods.

So Cosmists feel an almost (scientifically based) religious awe when thinking about artilect-building.

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Cosmists want humanity to climb the next rung up the evolutionary ladder.

Cosmists argue that it is human nature to be curious, to strive.

They point out that there is a whole universe to explore and master (hence Cosmists) the “big picture.”

Cosmists feel that the economic and military momentum behind the creation of home robots and soldier robots will make the rise of the artilects almost impossible to stop.

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What is Terranism?

Terranism (based on the word terra, the earth) is the philosophy that human beings should NOT build artilects.

Terrans are the people who agree with Terran ideas.

To Terrans, to build artilects would be to risk that humanity gets wiped out by vastly superior creatures whose ethics towards human beings would be unknown and unknowable, due to their vastly greater complexity and massive artificial intelligence.

The Terrans will argue that the artilects could become so superior to us, they may end up treating us the way we humans look at mosquitoes or ants, i.e., as so inferior, we kill them and not give a damn.

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Terrans will argue that the only way to ensure that the risk that humans get wiped out by artilects is zero, is that the artilects are never built in the first place.

But this Terran policy flatly contradicts the aims of the Cosmists.

When push really comes to shove, the Terrans will be prepared to wage an extermination war against the Cosmists for the sake of the survival of the human species.

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What is Cyborgism?

Cyborgism (based on the word cyborg, i.e., cybernetic organism, i.e., part machine, part human) is the philosophy that human beings can themselves become artilects. How? By modifying themselves using artilectual technology, e.g., being able to think much faster, have unlimited memory, become immortal, become disease free, etc.

Cyborgists are people who agree with Cyborgian ideas.

They argue that an Artilect War between the Cosmists and the Terrans can be avoided if all humans become Cyborgs, because there would be no Terrans and Cosmists left to fight each other.

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Thus a horrible “Artilect War” killing billions of people (“gigadeath”) using 21st century nano-weapons, could be avoided.

Cyborgists want humanity to transform itself from being humans to being artilects, to become gods themselves.

However, the Cyborgists would be as much an enemy to the Terrans as the Cosmists, because advanced Cyborgs are indistinguishable from pure artilects in their mental capacities.

(A nanoteched grain of sand has 10exp18 times the computationalcapacity of the human brain.)

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The SPECIES DOMINANCE ISSUE Topics

21st Century (Artilect Enabling) TechnologiesArtilects : Mental Capacities 10exp24 Times above Human LevelsThe Species Dominance Debate StartsCosmists, Terrrans, CyborgistsArguments of the CosmistsArguments of the TerransArguments of the CyborgistsHow the Artilect War Heats UpGigadeath

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21st CENTURY (Artilect Enabling) TECHNOLOGIES

a) Moore’s Lawb) 1 bit/atom by 2020c) Femto-second Switchingd) Reversible Computinge) Nanotech(nology)f) Artificial Embryologyg) Evolutionary Engineeringh) (Topological) Quantum Computingi) Nanotech Impact on Brain Sciencej) Artificial Brains

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The Artilect : Capacities 10exp24 Times above Human Levels

Artilect = Artificial Intellect

The human brain has a switching capacity of about 10exp16bit flips per second.

An Artilect could have 10exp40 bit flips per second.

So, an Artilect has a trillion trillion times the human braincapacity.

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THE SPECIES DOMINANCE DEBATE STARTS

As the IQ gap between humans and artilects closes, humanbeings will split into 3 main groups –

The Cosmists (favorable to building Artilects)The Terrans (opposed to building Artilects)The Cyborgists (who will become Artilects themselves)

Should humanity build these godlike massively intelligentmachines?

This is the most important question of the 21st century, Dominating our global politics, comparable with : “Who should own capital?” of the 19th and 20th centuries.

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ARGUMENTS OF THE COSMISTS

a) Big Picture Argument

b) Scientific Religion

c) Building Artilect Gods

d) Human Striving, Cant be Stopped

e) Economic Momentum

f) Military Momentum

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ARGUMENTS OF THE TERRANS

a) Preserve the Human Species

b) Fear of Difference

c) Rejection of the Cyborgs

d) Unpredictable Complexity

e) Cosmist Inconsideration

f) Time Window, to React against the Cosmists/ Cyborgists/Cyborgs/Artilects

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ARGUMENTS OF THE CYBORGS

a) Become Artilect Gods Ourselves

b) Avoid the Cosmist/Terran Clash

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HOW THE ARTILECT WAR HEATS UP

Nanotech revolutionizes NeuroscienceNeuro-engineering weds with Neuro-scienceArtificial Brain technology creates massive industriesIntelligence Theory (IT) is developedArtilects get smarter every yearDebate begins to rage, political parties formDebate turns violent, assassination, sabotageTerrans strike, before its too late for themCosmists anticipate this strike, and are readyLater 21st century weapons, leads to Gigadeath war

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TIMELINE FOR THE SPECIES DOMINANCE DEBATE

a) The 2010s will be the decade of massive artificial brain research.

a) The 2020s will be the decade of the growth of a massive trillion dollar artificial brain industry to e.g. control home robots.

c) During the 2020s and 2030s billions of people will notice the IQ gap between human intelligence and machine intelligence closing as they upgrade their home robots every year or so.

d) As that IQ gap closes, people will be asking with ever growing passion “Should humanity allow artilects to be built?”

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e) Since the stakes have never been so high (the survival of the human species) the passion level in the species dominance debate will be extremely high.

f) The Terrans will freak out being surrounded by Cyborgs and Artilects all around them with threateningly high artificial intelligence.

g) The Terrans will first strike before they become too stupid. The Cosmists/Cyborgs will hit back Artilect War

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1800 21002000

Number ofPeople Killed in Major Wars

Napoleonic Wars, 1 Million

WW1, 20 Million

WW2, 50-100 Million

Artilect War, Billions

GIGADEATH

1900

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Pollyannists vs. Jeremaists (i.e. Optimists vs. Pessimists)

The species dominance community has split into two major ideological camps, the Pollyannists and the Jeremaists.

The Pollyannists are all “sweetness and light”. All of humanitywill become cyborgs in small increments, and hence becomedisease free, far more intelligent, immortal, etc. – all veryoptimistic and positive. (Chief protagonist – Ray Kurzweil)

The Jeremaists are all “doom and gloom”. Not all humans will accept becoming advanced cyborgs. The Terrans will first strike the Cosmists/Cyborgists/Artilects/Cyborgs before they are too stupid to win an “Artilect War” – all very pessimistic and negative. (Chief protagonist – Hugo de Garis).

SO, use questionnaires (the wisdom of the crowd), to settle this.

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QUESTIONNAIRE In the last minutes of this talk, please fill in the questionnaire(about 20 questions)

The results of this questionnaire will be used as the basis for apress release to a dozen countries, to help raise global awarenessof the “Species Dominance Issue”

The following dozen countries will be approached --

US, Canada, Australia, NZ, UK, France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Japan, Korea, India

Hence this questionnaire is important!

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TAKE HOME MESSAGE

The take home message of this talk, is that the rise of the artilect is not some vague, distant 22nd century, science fiction maybe, but rather something that will become very real in the next few decades, due to the exponential increase in the advance of artilect enabling technologies and knowledge.

The species dominance issue will not go away.

As the IQ gap between human and machine closes in the 2020s and 2030s, the “species dominance debate” will heat up and may lead to an “Artilect War” killing billions of people(“gigadeath”)

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CONTACT

Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS

profhugodegaris@yahoo.com

Website (books, media, essays, etc)

http://profhugodegaris.wordpress.com

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