The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows

in and out of Scotlandin and out of Scotland

by

Alessandra FaggianUniversity of Southampton

&

Cher LiRobert E. Wright

University of Strathclyde

ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008

Introduction

One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of GB

Why bother?

•Not a great deal is known about this.

•Regional focus: Scotland, England and Wales

•export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services

•Information along these lines will be fed into the CGE analysis

Slide 2/23

Policy Relevance

• Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland

• Migration flows of students and graduate thought to reinforce migration flows of general population (north and west to the east)

• “Belief” that building Higher and Further Education institutions in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends

Slide 3/23

HESA (Higher Education Statistical Agency) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK.

We use two datasets:(1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (DLHE)(1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (DLHE)(2) Students in HEIs (2) Students in HEIs

12 waves available from 1994/95 to 2005/2006

For current analysis, we focus on the most recent wave (05/06) which includes information on around 2.4 million students and around 230,000 graduates.

DataData

Slide 4/23

A Brief Picture of HEIs in Scotland

20 HEIs: 8 pre-92 Universities, 6 post-92 Universities and 7 Colleges (mainly clustered around Glasgow and Edinburgh)

Total number of students in 05/06: 215, 820

Number of students went up by 44.9% between 94/95 and 05/06 (c.f. national average 49.1%; England 48.7%).

The Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama Glasgow School of Art

Edinburgh College of Art

Scottish Agricultural College

The University of Stirling

The University of Edinburgh

University of Abertay Dundee

The University of St Andrews

The University of Dundee

The University of Paisley

Glasgow Caledonian University

The University of Glasgow

Heriot - Watt University

The University of Strathclyde

The Robert Gordon University

The University of Aberdeen

Napier University

Slide 5/23

38.1

42.2

43.6

31.4

38.6

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Ra

te p

er

1,0

00

po

pu

latio

n

England Scotland Wales

NI UK

Figure 1: students per 1,000 population, by countries, 1994/95-2005/06

UK average

Scotland

Slide 6/23

Some descriptives…

Locations of HEIs and Employment Matrix, 2005/06 

Place of EmploymentEngland Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Study England

182,302(97.5%)

1,719(0.9%)

2,211(1.2%)

777(0.4%)

Scotland2,268

(10.5%)18,982(88%)

51(0.2%)

263(1.2%)

Wales4,258

(35.4%)60

(0.5%)7,707(64%)

16(0.1%)

NI229

(4%)57

(1%)5

(0.1%)5,371

(94.9%)

Total189,057(83.6%)

20,818(9.2%)

9,974(4.4%)

6,427(2.8%)

Slide 7/23

Quality of Graduates: In-Flows to and Out-Flows from Scotland)

Graduate IN-FLOWS

Graduate OUT-FLOWS

PG 32.2% 24.9%

1st 10.8% 10.6%

2.1 32.8% 26.7%

TOTAL 75.8% 62.2%

% of Graduates with PG Degrees or 1st/ 2.1 Entering the Region for Work

Scotland 75.80%

London 74.50%

SW England 72.90%

East 72.50%

SE England 72.20%

Yorkshire & Humberside 69.20%

East Midlands 68.90%

West Midlands 68.40%

NE England 67.40%

NW England 67.10%

Wales 66.10%

Slide 8/23

The HESA data provide three key postal addresses:

(1)Place of domiciledomicile(2)Place of studystudy(3)Place of employmentemployment

This allows us to identify 3 migration types3 migration types

Slide 9/23

Stayers, Interregional Movers V.S. LeaversTwo different movements studied here:

2. MEDIUM DISTANCE2. MEDIUM DISTANCE movements (interregional but within country) – interregional re-allocation of skilled labour

1.1.LONG DISTANCELONG DISTANCE movements (inter-country within GB) – ‘brain drain’

or ‘brain gain’?

Leavers (L) Interregional movers

(I)

Slide 10/23

Breakdown of Migration Type for Scotland and the Rest of GB

Migration Types 

Scotland (Model 1)

England & Wales (Model 2)

 

Stayers12,233(65.3%)

 118,799(60.9%)

Interregional Migrants

5,594(29.8%)

 75,515(38.7%)

Leavers918(4.9%)

 643(0.3%)

 

Total 18,745  194,957

Slide 11/23

Model 1Model 1

Leavers (Scottish OUT-OUT-

migrationmigration)

Stayers

Model 2Model 2

Interregional

MoverInterregiona

l

Mover

Stayers

Leavers (Scottish

IN-IN-migrationmigration)

Slide 12/23

We model both OUT-flows (Model 1) OUT-flows (Model 1) and IN- IN-

flows (Model 2) of graduatesflows (Model 2) of graduates from and to

Scotland using a Multinomial Logit Model to

identify both problems of:

• Retention Retention of graduates within Scotland

(Model 1: stayers and interregional migrants)

• AttractionAttraction of graduates from outside

Scotland (Model 2: leavers from England and

Wales)Slide 13/23

( )j q

h qq

h

eP j

e

β X

β X

MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELLING

j=Leavers,Interregional Migrant, Stayer (base category)

q=individual identifier: vector of individual-specific characteristicsqX

Slide 14/23

***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level

Base outcome: StayerInterregional Migrantsin Scotland

Leavers for England/Wales

Relative-risk ratios z-values Relative-risk ratios z-values

Graduate-specific Characteristics

Male 1.176*** 4.30 1.520*** 5.67

Age 1.000 -0.20 0.956*** -7.02

Ethnicity (Benchmark-White)

Black 0.708 -1.06 4.555*** 4.23

Asian 0.679*** -2.77 1.377* 1.66

Mixed 0.683 -1.46 0.691 -0.71

Degree Class

1st/2:1 degree 1.063 1.27 1.591*** 5.35

Postgraduate 1.374*** 6.42 1.417*** 3.18

Subject Studied (Benchmark-Arts & Humanities)

Social Sciences 0.897** -2.10 2.197*** 6.26

Sciences 1.027 0.54 3.636*** 10.81

Combined 0.946 -0.27 4.715*** 4.67

HEIs Types (Benchmark-Old University)

Ex-polytechnics 0.680*** -8.46 0.492*** -7.95

College 1.189** 2.13 0.539*** -3.28

Regional Effects (Benchmark-Strathclyde)

Lothian 2.489*** 19.35 1.628*** 5.63

Central 12.523*** 25.66 1.391 1.31

Fife 12.377*** 12.11 11.476*** 9.49

Tayside 4.272*** 25.63 1.053 0.37

Grampian 2.487*** 16.80 0.836 -1.39

Highland 8.887*** 16.51 0.401 -1.24

Estimation Results

(Model 1)

***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level

Slide 15/23

Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer

Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer

.47

-.76

.55

-.6

.65

-.43

.77

-.26

.91

-.1

1.07

.07

1.26

.23

1.49

.4

1.76

.56

I L

S

I

L S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

Male 0/1

Black Ethnicity 0/1

Asian Ethnicity 0/1

Mixed Ethnicity 0/1

1st/2.1 0/1

Postgraduate 0/1

Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 1)

Slide 16/23

Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer

Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer

.49 .74 1.11 1.66 2.48 3.72 5.58 8.36 12.52

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

Social sciences 0/1

Sciences 0/1

Combined 0/1

Ex-polytechnics 0/1

College 0/1

Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 1), cont

Slide 17/23

Base outcome: StayerInterregional Migrants inEngland/Wales

Leavers for Scotland

Relative-risk ratios z-values Relative-risk ratiosz-values

Graduate-specific Characteristics

Male 1.314*** 26.56 1.759*** 6.90

Age 0.977*** -35.74 0.971*** -4.98

Ethnicity (Benchmark-White)

Black 0.945** -2.00 1.382 1.46

Asian 0.970* -1.61 0.467*** -3.56

Mixed 1.063 1.59 1.072 0.23

Degree Class

1st/2:1 degree 1.398*** 28.39 1.560*** 4.42

Postgraduate 1.022 1.60 1.713*** 4.73

Subject Studied (Benchmark-Arts & Humanities)

Social Sciences 1.099*** 7.08 0.917 -0.71

Sciences 0.900*** -8.26 1.508*** 3.99

Combined 2.241*** 17.88 2.007* 1.75

HEIs Types (Benchmark-Old University)

Ex-polytechnics 0.537*** -56.63 0.356*** -11.33

College 0.524*** -31.15 0.657*** -2.59

Estimation Results

(Model 2)

***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level

Slide 18/23

Base outcome: StayerInterregional Migrants inEngland/Wales Leavers for Scotland

Relative-risk ratios

z-values

Relative-risk ratios

z-values

Regional Effects (Benchmark-North East)

North West 0.761*** -10.33 0.389*** -6.51

Yorkshire & Humberside 1.324*** 10.71 0.411*** -5.91

East Midlands 2.372*** 32.07 0.430*** -4.71

West Midlands 1.112*** 3.82 0.236*** -7.20

East of England 1.674*** 16.58 0.496*** -3.27

London 0.761*** -10.44 0.233*** -9.09

South East 1.860*** 24.74 0.313*** -7.36

South West 1.400*** 12.38 0.330*** -6.21

Wales 0.916*** -2.96 0.193*** -7.60

Estimation Results (Model 2, cont)

***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level

Slide 19/23

Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer

Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer

.47

-.76

.55

-.6

.65

-.43

.77

-.26

.91

-.1

1.07

.07

1.26

.23

1.49

.4

1.76

.56

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

Male 0/1

Black Ethnicity 0/1

Asian Ethnicity 0/1

Mixed Ethnicity 0/1

1st/2:1 degree 0/1

Postgraduate 0/1

Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2)

Slide 20/23

Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer

Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer

.36 .45 .56 .71 .89 1.12 1.41 1.78 2.24

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

I L

S

Social sciences 0/1

Sciences 0/1

Combined 0/1

Ex polytechnics 0/1

College 0/1

Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2), cont

Slide 21/23

Conclusions and Future Work

Future workTo incorporate more variables on regional characteristics, e.g. quality of life, social/economic environment;

To use more disaggregated regions for analysis of England/Wales, e.g. NUTS2;

Check for consistency of results over time and/or time trends by incorporating longer time series in the analysis

Preliminary ConclusionsScotland is a ‘net-loser’ of graduates in absolute terms, but vis-à-vis elsewhere in GB, it attracts the largest % of high-quality graduates

Determinants of leavers similar from and to Scotland: male(+), age(-), Asian(-), postgraduate(+), 1st/2.1(+), science(+), combined(+), ex-polytech(-), college(-), and regional effects

Regional retention of human capital crucial: high-mobility graduates are of best quality

Slide 22/23

Thanks for your attention!

For more details on this project, see

http://ewds.strath.ac.uk/iheirei/Home.aspx

Or email: Cher.Li@strath.ac.uk