The Race to a Renewable FutureWho is Going to Get There First?

Terry Penney, Technology ManagerNREL’s FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies Program

November 11, 2005

Transportation and Energy Challenges

• Increasing demand for a finite resource - petroleum• Emission reductions and fuel-economy gains have been

offset by:

More people More cars More vehicle miles traveled More pollution Decreasing fuel economy

Demand for Fuels Outstrips SupplyU.S. Production with Transportation Use (1970-2020)

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002

Worldwide Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Netherlands

Mexico

France

Other Industrialized Countries

Italy

United Kingdom

Canada

Other Western Europe

Germany

India

Japan

China

Eastern Europe

Other Developing Countries

United States

Million Metric Tons in 2001

Source: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 20, 2001

U.S. light duty vehicles (LDV) alone are responsible for nearly 5% of world CO2 emissions.

U.S. light duty vehicles (LDV) alone are responsible for nearly 5% of world CO2 emissions.

LDV

Vehicles and Fuels Energy Smart Buildings

Renewables =

So What Are We Doing?Changing the Paradigm

+ +

= A Renewable Community

U.S. Renewable Energy Resources

Pathways for Vehicles and Fuels

Conventional Vehicles

Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

Hydrogen Powered Vehicles (including

Fuel Cells)

Hydrogen Pathways

hydrocarbonbiomass

H2

H2

H2H2H2

H2

H2H2

water

H2 H2

H2H2H2

H2

H2

e-e- e-e-

e-e- e-e-

H2

fuel cell

e-e- e-

e-

Hydrogen must be derived from other energy sources.

A Next Step: Plug-in Vehicles

A Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) uses today’s hybrid technology, adding a bigger battery and the capability to plug into your garage (or elsewhere) to fuel the battery with electricity.

A Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) uses today’s hybrid technology, adding a bigger battery and the capability to plug into your garage (or elsewhere) to fuel the battery with electricity.

At 3 cents/mile to fill up an electric vehicle, compared to about 11 cents/mile to fill up a gasoline vehicle today, why not make a shift?

At 3 cents/mile to fill up an electric vehicle, compared to about 11 cents/mile to fill up a gasoline vehicle today, why not make a shift?

PHEV

Petroleum Savings Opportunities for HEV, PHEV, and FCHEV

PHEVs provide the best combination of rate and timing to significantly reduce fuel consumption while hydrogen fuel cell (FCHEV) technology is being developed.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Year

Pe

r V

eh

icle

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Fu

el

Sa

vin

gs

(b

arr

els

of

oil

)HEV (15-50%)

PHEV (50-95%)

HEV nominal (30%)

PHEV nominal (75%)

FCHEV nominal (100%)

High Impact PathHigh Impact PathPHEVPHEV

HEV

FCHEV

Source: NREL CTTS’ systems analysis modeling

Source: Base case projection of U.S. electric system capacity from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook)

Where Does our Electric Power Come From? Base Case Electricity Capacity

Plug-ins Impact on Renewable WindResults with 50% PHEVs by 2020

Source: High capacity PHEV case projection from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook)

PHEVs alone enabled this increase in economic wind

Wind offsets almost all carbon emissions from U.S. LDVs

Wind offsets almost all carbon emissions from U.S. LDVs

Increasing Fuel Economy Helps for Next 2 Decades, But is Not Enough to Offset Long-Term Growth

Source: EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook

Plug-in HEVs Require No New Capacity and Even Improve Utility Performance

Assumes utility controlled night-time charging for 50% of the vehicles in this utility district

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

0 2000 4000 6000 8000Hour

Lo

ad (

MW

)

No PHEVs

w/PHEVsPeak Shaving

Night-time charging of PHEV’s

Utility Sized forAnnual Peak

Excess Capacity

Hours at Load Annually

Source: NREL’s analysis office EV load tool

Transportation Fuels Use Today

Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario

Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario

Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario

Pathways for Houses and Buildings

Conventional Buildings

Energy Smart Buildings

Energy Smart Communities with Distributed Energy

Generation

Zero Energy Building:Breaking out the Savings

Site Description

Power Use (kWh)

PV Array Output (AC kWh)

Net Power Use (kWh)

Monthly Cost of Power

PV Output % of Total Loads

Zero Energy Home

837 502 335 $27 60%

Control Home

1,839 0 1,839 $147 0%

Energy Bottom Line

During the month of June 1998, the occupied Zero Energy Home in Florida, consumed only 335 kWh of utility-grid power for all its electrical needs. This compares to 1,839 kWh used by the unoccupied control home for air-conditioning only! The monthly power cost in the Zero Energy home was only 18% of the control home’s power cost.

Distribute Energy to Renewable Communities

4

Today’s Electricity …

Power park

Hydrogen Storage

Industrial DG

Tomorrow’s Choices …

Combined Heat and Power

Fuel Cell

e -

e -

Wind Farms

Rooftop Photovoltaics

Remote Loads

Load as a resource

SMES

Smart Substation

Fuel Cell

Scenario: Energy Flows Two Ways

Current Electrical Generation

RED Arrows:Power sold by central generators to homes and commercial buildings

Green Arrows:Power flowing from buildings back to substations

Future Electrical Generation

A Renewable Community Vision

A state-of-the-art, master planned community using advanced technologies and strategies to:

• Maximize sustainability, economic benefits, quality of life • Minimize environmental impacts • Integrate currently disconnected systems (e.g., transportation and building

energy systems) • Establish a viable community today while leading the transition to the

communities of tomorrow• Develop technologies and approaches applicable to communities worldwide

The community will have aggressive goals using sound strategic business and economic principles, with a short and long term focuses.

10 Critical Elements of a Renewable Community

• Community generates its own energy supply• Design and decisions based on sound business principles• Cost of living in the community is optimized for consumer • Energy conservation features are core• Vehicle miles traveled are substantially reduced • Encourages shared resources to minimize consumption• Pollution is minimal or non-existent• Integrate workplace with living place• Master planned community as an integrated system• Magnet for economic development• A community that people will demand to live in!A community that people will demand to live in!

Barriers/Challenges

Technology• High value, low cost

• Reliable

• Accessible

• Clean

Policies• Stable

• Consistent

• Long-term

Markets• Sustainable

• Accessible

• Competitive

Renewable Community Analysis

NPV $10,129,258 Total Incremental CO2 Emissions (tons) (1,303,688)Return/Household $1,013

General Information Electricity InformationDiscount Rate 10.00% Total Annual Energy Consumption/Household (kWh) 14,000Rate of Inflation 2.50% Average Peak Energy Demand/Household (kW) 4.0

Community Rate Structure (Energy-Only = 0, Energy & Demand = 1) 1Community Profile & Mortgage Information

Number of Homes in Community 10,000Total Cost of Average Home $400,000 Energy Efficiency Dow n Payment $50,000 Energy Savings: Eff iciency Measures in Home (%) 15.00%Interest Rate 6.50% Energy Eff iciency Measures Costs $1,000Interest Rate Discount 0.00% Federal Investment Tax Credit: Energy Eff iciency 10.00%Loan Term (15, 25, or 30 years) 30

Property Tax Rate Discount 0.00% Wind Farm InformationInsurance rate discount from backup pow er source 0.00% Number of Turbines in Community 10Annual Income Level: Average Community Household $125,000 Turbine Size (MW) 1.5

Incremental Cost of Energy Eff iciency Measures ($) $1,450,000Single Tax Filers (%) 50.00% Local Wind Resource (Class 1-7) 6Married Filing Jointly (%) 50.00%Married Filing Separately (%) 0.00% Construction Loan Interest Rate 15.00%Head of Household (%) 0.00% Developer's Loan Term 2

Vehicle Information (V2G & Non-V2G) Annual O&M Costs/Turbine ($/turbine) $25,000V2G size (PHEV 0,10,15,20,25,30,40,60) 10 Insurance Rate/Turbine 1.00%Batteries: Cost/ Usable kWh: $1,000 Land-use Lease Cost/Turbine $3,500Total Other Initial Costs/Vehicle $21,000 Depreciation Sched. (MACRS=0; Double Decline=1; Straight Line=2) 0Incremental Vehicle Costs (PHEV) $1,000 Production Tax Credit $0.019

Wholesale Energy Price ($/kWh) $0.0600Gasoline to electric conversion factor (kWh/gallon) 10.00 Wholesale Energy Esaclation Rate 2.50%Efficiency Benefits of Hybridization 50.00%Fuel Economy: Non-hybrid conventional vehicle (mpg) 30Fuel Economy Grow th Rate: 1.00% PV Information

Size of System/Household (kW) 1.5Vehicle Financing (Purchase = 0; Lease = 1) 0 Average Annual Energy Output (kWh/kW) 1,700Initial Vehicle Permitted in Mortgage? (Yes = 0; No =1) 1 PV Impact on Peak Demand (kW) 0.00Vehicle Lifetime (5 - 10 years) 7 Federal PV Rebate 30.00%Interest Rate 5.00% Maximum Federal Rebate Value $2,000 Lease Term (3 or 4 years) 4Lease Rate 5.00%

State/City Specific InformationGasoline Escalation Rate 4.00% TaxesCost per Gallon Gasoline $2.25 Property Tax Rate 2.80%Average Driving Profile see note A42 Sales Tax Rate 6.50%

Ancillary Services (V2G Vehicles) Electricity Rates see note D47kW Capacity/Vehicle 15.0Time Available to Grid 75.0% RebatesRegulation Rate ($/kW-hr) $0.0000 State/Local PV Rebates ($/w att) $7.00Spinning Reserve Rate ($/kW-hr) $0.000 Maximum Local Rebate Value $15,000 Spinning Reserves Dispatch Rate ($/kWh) $0.000Spinning Reserve Hours Dispatched (%) 5%

Incremental Cash Flows: Community Lifetime

($2,000)

($1,500)

($1,000)

($500)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Energy

Vehicle Fuel

Vehicles

Mortgages

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Payments

0%

After-Tax Mortgage Vehicle Payments Vehicle Fuel Costs Electricity Costs Total Costs

Non-Renewable Community

Renewable Community

Benefits Can Outweigh the BarriersA Renewable Community Can Cost Less

Than A Non-Renewable Community!

Renewable Community vs. Non-Renewable Community: Lifetime Cash Flows

Selecting Partnerships With

• Auto Manufacturers• Builders• Developers (Land use, water, infrastructure)• Utility Companies• Other Suppliers• City, County, State, Federal Government and Non-Government Entities• Others?

Paving a Way (examples)

• DestiNY Renewable MegaMall: Syracuse, New York• BioTown USA: Indiana• Sarasota, Florida: Resolution to advance plug-in

hybrids and renewables• Austin, Texas: Resolution to advance plug-in hybrids and

renewables• Plug-in Hybrid Prototypes by: Mercedes,

DaimlerChrysler, Toyota (potential), and others• Energy Smart Buildings: Japan, San Diego,

Sacramento, Austin, Chicago, etc.

Renewable Communities for Today and Tomorrow

Will You Be in the Race?