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The Quantification of Drought: The Quantification of Drought:
An Evaluation of State and Local Drought TriggersAn Evaluation of State and Local Drought Triggers
Hope Mizzell, Greg Carbone, Jason Caldwell
South Carolina Department of Natural Resources
WHY PLAN?
Recontructed Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on Tree-Rings
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1677
1687
1697
1707
1717
1727
1737
1747
1757
1767
1777
1787
1797
1807
1817
1827
1837
1847
1857
1867
1877
1887
1897
PD
SI
NOAA Paleoclimatology ProgramDr. Edward Cook, Dr. David Meko, Dr. David Stahle Dr. Malcolm Cleaveland
Hydro-Illogical CycleHydro-Illogical Cycle
PopulationPopulation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
Georgia North Carolina South Carolina
1 Dot = 10,000 People
South Carolina Drought Response ActSouth Carolina Drought Response Act
1985- Established procedures for monitoring, managing, and conserving water resources during periods of drought
SC Department of Natural Resources –Land,Water & Conservation Division serves as primary agency Monitor drought conditions Coordinate State’s response
Local Drought Committee
Local Drought Plans and Ordinances
State Drought Program
State Agency Drought Committee
Drought Act and Regulations
Chairs D.R.C. & provides support
SC State & Local Drought CommitteeSCDNR
Coordinate response
Issue Drought Declarations
Consult with stakeholders
Issue nonessential water curtailment declaration
Review request for variance
Curtail nonessential water use during severe and extreme droughts
Health & safety threatened - Report conditions & recommend actions to Governor
Mediate disputes
Governor may declare drought emergency and issue emergency water curtailment regulations
Water Systems implement drought response ordinances or plans
South Carolina Model Drought Mitigation Ordinance/Plan
•SCDNR, in cooperation with SC Water Utility Council and SCDHEC developed a model drought response ordinance/plan for water systems
Reviewed by Municipal Association and SC Drought Response Committee
•SC Drought Response Act of 2000 requires that all municipalities, counties, public service districts, special purpose districts, and commissions of public works engaged in business or activity of supplying water for any purpose develop and implement drought response ordinances or plans.
Model Drought Management Plan Model Drought Management Plan and Response Ordinanceand Response Ordinance
Section I: Declaration of Purpose and IntentSection I: Declaration of Purpose and Intent
Section II: Definition of TermsSection II: Definition of Terms
Section III: Drought Management Plan A. IntroductionB. Designation of Water System Drought Response RepresentativeC. Description of Water System Layout, Water Sources, Capacities and YieldsD. Identification of Water System Specific Drought or Water Shortage IndicatorsE. Cooperative Agreements and Alternative Water Supply SourcesF. Description of Pre-Drought Planning EffortsG. Description of Capital Planning and Investment for System Reliability and Demand Forecasting
Drought Response Ordinance (or Resolution)Drought Response Ordinance (or Resolution)
A. Declaration of Policy and AuthorityA. Declaration of Policy and Authority
B. Moderate Drought PhaseB. Moderate Drought Phase
C. Severe Drought PhaseC. Severe Drought Phase
D. Extreme Drought PhaseD. Extreme Drought Phase
E. RationingE. Rationing
F. Enforcement of RestrictionsF. Enforcement of Restrictions
G. VariancesG. Variances
H. Status of the OrdinanceH. Status of the Ordinance
Resolution of AdoptionResolution of Adoption
Importance of State and Local Drought Triggers
4 phases of drought established by regulation
Incipient PDSI -0.50 to -1.49 CMI 0.00 to -1.49 SPI 0.00 to -0.99KBDI 300 to 399 DM D0Avg daily streamflow 111%-120% of minimum flow for 2 consecutive weeksStatic water level in aquifer is 11-20 feet above trigger level for 2 cons. months Moderate PDSI -1.50 to -2.99 CMI -1.50 to -2.99 SPI -1.00 to -1.49KBDI 400 to 499 DM D1Avg daily streamflow 101%-110% of minimum flow for 2 consecutive weeksStatic water level in aquifer is 1-10 feet above trigger level for 2 cons. months Severe PDSI -3.00 to -3.99 CMI -3.00 to -3.99 SPI -1.50 to -1.99KDBI 500 to 699 DM D2Avg daily streamflow is between minimum flow and 90% of minimum for 2 cons. weeksStatic water level in aquifer is between trigger level and 10 feet below for 2 cons. months Extreme PDSI -4.00 and below CMI -4.00 and below SPI -2.00 and belowKBDI exceeds 700 DM D3 or higherAvg daily streamflow less than 90% of minimum for 2 consecutive weeksStatic water level in aquifer is more than 10 feet below trigger level for 2 consecutive months
Importance of State and Local Drought Triggers
Water System Specific Triggers
Moderate/Severe/Extreme Drought Phases1. Reservoirs ________ full2. Storage falls below ____ percentage of capacity3. Stream-flow less than ______ cubic feet per second 4. Aquifer levels less than ______________5. ____________number of days of supply remaining6. Average daily use greater than _____mgd for _____ consecutive days 7. Others: ______________________________________________
SJWD Water System
Percentage of Storage VolumePercentage of Storage Volume
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
May
JunJul
AugSep
OctNov
DecJan
FebM
arApr
May
Per
cent
age
of S
tora
ge V
olum
e
Normal
Phase 1: Incipient Drought
Phase 2: Moderate Drought
Phase 3: Severe Drought
Phase 4: Extreme Drought
Lyman Lake Drought Operating Curves
Drought Stage ThresholdsDrought Stage Thresholds
Lyman Lake Drought Operating Curves
833.0
834.0
835.0
836.0
837.0
838.0
839.0
840.0
841.0
842.0
843.0
May
JunJul
AugSep
OctNov
DecJan
FebM
arApr
May
Sta
ge [f
eet a
bove
MS
L]
Normal
Phase 1: Incipient Drought
Phase 2: Moderate Drought
Phase 3: Severe Drought
Phase 4: Extreme Drought
Operating Curve PerformanceOperating Curve Performance(50-year Simulated Record)(50-year Simulated Record)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Sto
rage [
mgal]
Simulated Volume (15.52 mgd) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Frequency of Drought Phase Indication (14.1 mgd Withdrawal)
Drought Phase
Percent of 54-year Historical
Record for Lake Lyman
Number of Weeks During 54-year Record
Public Notices During 54-year
Record
Normal 90.1% 2544 N/A
Incipient Drought (Phase 1) 1.1% 32 15
Moderate Drought (Phase 2) 2.1% 59 15
Severe Drought (Phase 3) 3.4% 97 14
Extreme Drought (Phase4) 3.3% 92 5
Frequency of Drought Phase IndicationFrequency of Drought Phase Indication
Comparison of Lake Lyman Elevation, Comparison of Lake Lyman Elevation, PDSI and 3 month SPIPDSI and 3 month SPI
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Ja
n-4
9
Jan-5
3
Jan-5
7
Jan-6
1
Jan-6
5
Jan-6
9
Jan-7
3
Jan-7
7
Jan-8
1
Jan-8
5
Jan-8
9
Jan-9
3
Jan-9
7
Jan-0
1
PD
SI/S
PI
815
820
825
830
835
840
845
Lake L
ym
an
Ele
vati
on
SPI 3 Month
PDSI
Elev, ft
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Ja
n-9
8
Jul-98
Jan-9
9
Jul-99
Jan-0
0
Jul-00
Jan-0
1
Jul-01
Jan-0
2
Jul-02
Jan-0
3
PD
SI/S
PI
815
820
825
830
835
840
845
Lake L
ym
an
Ele
vatio
n
SPI 3 Month
PDSI
Elevation ft
Comparison of Lake Lyman Elevation, Comparison of Lake Lyman Elevation, PDSI and 3 month SPI:PDSI and 3 month SPI:
1998-20031998-2003
Frequency of Drought Phase Indication
Drought Phase
Percent of 54-year Historical
Record for Lake Lyman
Percent of 54-year Historical Record for SPI
Percent of 54-year Historical Record for PDSI
Normal90.1% 53.5% 56%
Incipient Drought (Phase 1)1.1% 31.5% 13.2%
Moderate Drought (Phase 2)2.1% 9.2% 24.1%
Severe Drought (Phase 3)3.4% 2.9% 5.3%
Extreme Drought (Phase4)3.3% 2.9% 1.2%
Frequency of Drought Phase IndicationFrequency of Drought Phase Indication
National Drought Preparedness National Drought Preparedness Act of 2003Act of 2003
June 21, 2004, Western Governors, Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st Century: The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
One Goal of NIDIS
Create a drought “early warning system” capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought;
Future WorkFuture Work
Compare additional state drought indices such as KBDI, Streamflow, Groundwater with several Local Water System Triggers such as those using wells
Evaluate drought strength, frequency, mean and maximum duration of droughts of a given intensity, and trend in drought incidence as indicated by the local and State triggers