The Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market: … Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market: 2012 - 2017 ... 2.9.1 Higher throughput and Low Latency ... The Public Safety LTE

The Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market: 2012 - 2017

Revision Date: 14 November 2012

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Table of Contents

List of Figures ...................................................................................................9

1 Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................... 11

1.1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 11

1.2 Topics Covered ........................................................................................................................... 14

1.3 Key Questions Answered ............................................................................................................ 15

1.4 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 16

1.5 Target Audience .......................................................................................................................... 16

1.6 Companies Mentioned ................................................................................................................ 17

2 Chapter 2: An Overview of the Public Safety Mobile Broadband Market 23

2.1 Narrowband Land Mobile Radio (LMR) Systems in Public Safety .............................................. 23

2.1.1 LMR Market Size ................................................................................................................. 24

2.1.2 The Perceived Role of Mobile Broadband in Public Safety Scenarios ............................... 25

2.1.3 The Limitations of LMR Data Capabilities ........................................................................... 25

2.2 Mobile Broadband for Public Safety ............................................................................................ 26

2.2.1 Partnerships with Commercial Carriers .............................................................................. 26

2.2.2 Private LTE and WiMAX Deployments ............................................................................... 26

2.3 How Big is the Mobile Broadband Market? ................................................................................. 26

2.3.1 Will the Public Safety Segment Witness the Same Level of Growth as the Consumer Segment? ........................................................................................................................................... 27

2.3.2 What are the Growth Drivers? ............................................................................................. 27

2.3.3 LMR Systems will Continue to Support Mission-Critical Voice ........................................... 29

2.4 Why use Commercial Mobile Broadband Technology for Public Safety .................................... 30

2.5 Why LTE? .................................................................................................................................... 30

2.5.1 Performance Metrics ........................................................................................................... 30

2.5.2 Coexistence, Interoperability and Spectrum Flexibility ....................................................... 30

2.5.3 A Thriving Ecosystem ......................................................................................................... 31

2.5.4 OPEX Reduction ................................................................................................................. 31

2.6 Public Safety LTE Technology & Architecture ............................................................................ 33

2.6.1 LTE Radio Access Network (E-UTRAN) ............................................................................. 34

2.6.2 TDD vs. FDD ....................................................................................................................... 35

2.6.3 User Equipment (UE) Categories ........................................................................................ 36 2.6.3.1 USB Data Cards ............................................................................................................................ 36 2.6.3.2 Vehicular Modems ......................................................................................................................... 36 2.6.3.3 Smartphones ................................................................................................................................. 37 2.6.3.4 Tablets ........................................................................................................................................... 37

2.6.4 Public Safety LTE EPC ....................................................................................................... 38 2.6.4.1 Serving Gateway (SGW) ............................................................................................................... 38 2.6.4.2 Packet Data Network Gateway (PGW) .......................................................................................... 38 2.6.4.3 Mobility Management Entity (MME) ............................................................................................... 38

The Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market:

2012 - 2016

© 2012 Signals and Systems Telecom

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2.6.4.4 Home Subscriber Server (HSS) ..................................................................................................... 39 2.6.4.5 Policy Charging and Rules Function (PCRF)................................................................................. 39

2.6.5 LMR Network Integration and Inter-Working ....................................................................... 40

2.6.6 The Evolution to LTE-Advanced and its Implications for Public Safety .............................. 41

2.6.7 Support for Roaming in Public Safety LTE ......................................................................... 42

2.6.8 Inter-System Roaming ........................................................................................................ 42

2.6.9 Intra-System Roaming to Commercial Carriers .................................................................. 42

2.7 Public Safety LTE Deployment Models ....................................................................................... 43

2.7.1 Private Public Satiety LTE Network Deployments .............................................................. 43

2.7.2 Shared Commercial Public Safety LTE ............................................................................... 43

2.7.3 Hosted Core Public Safety LTE Networks .......................................................................... 43

2.8 Funding Models for Private Public Safety LTE Network Deployment ......................................... 44

2.8.1 Built, Owned and Operated by Integrator/Vendor ............................................................... 44

2.8.2 Owned and Operated by the State Government ................................................................. 44

2.8.3 Local Agency Hosted Core ................................................................................................. 44

2.8.4 Multiple Networks ................................................................................................................ 45

2.9 The Public Safety LTE Business Case ....................................................................................... 46

2.9.1 Higher throughput and Low Latency ................................................................................... 46

2.9.2 Economic Feasibility ........................................................................................................... 46

2.9.3 Bandwidth Flexibility ............................................................................................................ 46

2.9.4 Spectral Efficiency ............................................................................................................... 46

2.9.5 Regional Interoperability ..................................................................................................... 47

2.9.6 Lack of Competition from Other Standards ......................................................................... 47

2.9.7 Endorsement from the Public Safety Community ............................................................... 48

2.9.8 Commitments by Infrastructure and Device vendors .......................................................... 48

2.9.9 Quality of Service (QoS) & Priority Provisioning ................................................................. 49

2.10 Challenges to the Public Safety LTE Ecosystem ........................................................................ 50

2.10.1 Spectrum Allocation ............................................................................................................ 50

2.10.2 Interworking with LMR Networks ......................................................................................... 51

2.10.3 Budgetary Issues................................................................................................................. 51

2.10.4 Security Issues .................................................................................................................... 52

2.10.5 Support for Mission-Critical Voice and Direct Mode-Operation .......................................... 52

2.10.6 Smaller Coverage Footprint to Comparison to LMR Systems ............................................ 53

2.10.7 Support for Group Communication (Multi-Casting) in Release 8 ........................................ 54

2.10.8 Lack of Specifications for Battery Life in Public Safety Scenarios ...................................... 54

2.10.9 User Profiles to fit Public Safety Requirements .................................................................. 55


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3 Chapter 3: Public Safety LTE and Mobile Broadband Industry Roadmap 56

3.1 Industry Roadmap ....................................................................................................................... 56

3.2 2012 – 2014: The Disparate Networks Era ................................................................................. 57

3.3 2014 – 2015: The Hybrid Networks Era ...................................................................................... 57

3.4 2015 – 2017: The Converged Networks Era ............................................................................... 57

3.5 Public Safety LTE Deployment & Trial Case Studies ................................................................. 58

3.5.1 Harris County ...................................................................................................................... 58

3.5.2 Qatar MOI ............................................................................................................................ 59

3.5.3 Oman Royal Office .............................................................................................................. 59

3.5.4 Turkish National Police Force ............................................................................................. 59

3.5.5 Hong Kong Police Force Trial ............................................................................................. 59

3.5.6 China TD-LTE Public Safety Trial ....................................................................................... 60

4 Chapter 4: Public Safety LTE and Mobile Broadband Applications Ecosystem ..................................................................................................... 61

4.1 Mobile Video................................................................................................................................ 61

4.2 Mobile Broadband and Seamless Mobile VPN Access .............................................................. 62

4.3 GIS (Geographical Information Systems) and Mapping ............................................................. 63

4.4 Automatic Vehicle Location Solutions (AVLS) ............................................................................ 63

4.5 Computer Aided Dispatching (CAD) ........................................................................................... 64

4.6 Remote Data Access .................................................................................................................. 64

4.7 Telemetry and Remote Diagnostics ............................................................................................ 64

4.8 Bulk Multimedia/Data Transfers .................................................................................................. 64

4.9 Situational Awareness Applications ............................................................................................ 65

4.10 PTT over LTE .............................................................................................................................. 65

4.11 The Present State of the Market: What‘s on offer ....................................................................... 66

4.12 The Numbers: How Big is the Public Safety LTE Applications Ecosystem? .............................. 67

5 Chapter 5: Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Vendor Assessment 68

5.1 Alcatel-Lucent.............................................................................................................................. 68

5.1.1 Products and Solutions ....................................................................................................... 68

5.1.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 69

5.1.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 69

5.1.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 69

5.2 Amdocs (Bridgewater) ................................................................................................................. 70


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5.2.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 70

5.2.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 70

5.2.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 70

5.3 Cassidian ..................................................................................................................................... 71


5.3.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 71

5.3.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 71

5.3.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 71

5.4 Cisco ........................................................................................................................................... 72


5.4.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 72

5.4.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 72

5.4.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 73

5.5 Ericsson ....................................................................................................................................... 74


5.5.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 74

5.5.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 74

5.5.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 75

5.6 Etherstack ................................................................................................................................... 76


5.6.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 76

5.6.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 76

5.6.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 76

5.7 Motorola Solutions ...................................................................................................................... 77


5.7.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 77

5.7.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 77

5.7.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 78

5.8 Raytheon ..................................................................................................................................... 79


5.8.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 79

5.8.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 79

5.8.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 80

5.9 IP Wireless (General Dynamics) ................................................................................................. 81


5.9.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 81


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5.9.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 81

5.9.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 81

5.10 Harris ........................................................................................................................................... 82


5.10.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 82

5.10.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 82

5.10.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 83

5.11 Huawei ........................................................................................................................................ 84


5.11.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 84

5.11.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 84

5.11.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 84

5.12 Hytera .......................................................................................................................................... 85


5.12.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 85

5.12.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 85

5.12.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 85

5.13 Tait .............................................................................................................................................. 86


5.13.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 86

5.13.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 86

5.13.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 86

5.14 Nokia Siemens Networks ............................................................................................................ 87


5.14.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 87

5.14.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 87

5.14.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 87

5.15 Reality Mobile .............................................................................................................................. 88


5.15.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 88

5.15.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 88

5.15.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 88

5.16 Thales .......................................................................................................................................... 89


5.16.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 89

5.16.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 89

5.16.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 89


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5.17 Twisted Pair Solutions ................................................................................................................. 90


5.17.2 Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 90

5.17.3 Strengths ............................................................................................................................. 90

5.17.4 Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 90

6 Chapter 6: Public Safety LTE Spectrum Allocation Strategies Worldwide 91

6.1 North America ............................................................................................................................. 91

6.2 Latin & Central America .............................................................................................................. 92

6.3 Europe ......................................................................................................................................... 92

6.4 Middle East & Africa .................................................................................................................... 93

6.5 Asia Pacific .................................................................................................................................. 94

6.6 The Prospects of Spectrum Harmonisation ................................................................................ 95

7 Chapter 7: Market Analysis and Forecasts ........................................... 96

7.1 The Global Public Safety Mobile Broadband Market .................................................................. 96

7.1.1 First Responder Data Subscriptions over Public (Commercial) Cellular Networks ............ 96

7.1.2 First Responder Data Subscriptions Over LMR Networks .................................................. 97

7.1.3 First Responder Data Subscriptions over Private Mobile Broadband ................................. 98 7.1.3.1 The Unreliability of Commercial Cellular Mobile Broadband Networks .......................................... 98 7.1.3.2 Private Public Safety LTE and WiMAX Subscriptions Compared .................................................. 98

7.1.4 Private Public Safety LTE Networks ................................................................................. 100 7.1.4.1 Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks .............................................................. 100 7.1.4.2 Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks ...................................................... 102 7.1.4.3 Private Public Safety LTE Network Service Revenue .................................................................. 104

7.1.5 Public Safety LTE over Public (Commercial) LTE Networks ............................................ 105 7.1.5.1 Public Safety Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks ...................................................... 105 7.1.5.2 Public Safety Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks .............................................. 107 7.1.5.3 Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks ................................................ 109

7.1.6 Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Compared...................................................... 110 7.1.6.1 Private and Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions Compared ......................................... 110 7.1.6.2 Private and Commercial Public Safety LTE Device Shipments Compared ................................. 111 7.1.6.3 Private and Commercial Public Safety LTE Service Revenues Compared ................................. 112

7.1.7 Public Safety LTE Device Shipments by Form Factor ...................................................... 113

7.1.8 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments ................................................................. 114 7.1.8.1 Commercial and Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments Compared ............................... 114 7.1.8.2 Regional Assessment of Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments ..................................... 116

7.1.9 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Installed Base ............................................................ 118


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7.2 Regional Market Assessment ................................................................................................... 119

7.2.1 Asia Pacific ........................................................................................................................ 119 7.2.1.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ..................... 119 7.2.1.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ............. 121 7.2.1.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ................................. 123

7.2.2 North America ................................................................................................................... 124 7.2.2.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ..................... 124 7.2.2.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ............. 126 7.2.2.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ................................. 128

7.2.3 Latin & Central America .................................................................................................... 129 7.2.3.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ..................... 129 7.2.3.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ............. 131 7.2.3.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ................................. 133

7.2.4 Middle East & Africa .......................................................................................................... 134 7.2.4.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ..................... 134 7.2.4.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ............. 136 7.2.4.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ................................. 138

7.2.5 Eastern Europe ................................................................................................................. 139 7.2.5.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ..................... 139 7.2.5.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ............. 141 7.2.5.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ................................. 143

7.2.6 Western Europe ................................................................................................................ 144 7.2.6.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ..................... 144 7.2.6.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ............. 146 7.2.6.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ................................. 148


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List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Land Mobile Radio (LMR) Subscriptions by Technology: 2011 – 2017 (Millions) .................................................................................... 24

Figure 2: Global Mobile Broadband Subscriptions by Technology: 2011 – 2017 (Millions) ................................................................................................ 27

Figure 3: Purpose of Using Mobile Broadband for Public Safety Applications (Survey Results - 2011 & 2012) ................................................................ 28

Figure 4: Global LTE Subscriptions: 2011 – 2017 (Millions) ................................................................................................................................................ 32

Figure 5: Public Safety LTE Network Architecture ............................................................................................................................................................... 33

Figure 6: Global Voice over LTE (VoLTE) Subscriptions: 2011 – 2017 (Millions) ............................................................................................................... 40

Figure 7: Public Safety LTE Industry Roadmap ................................................................................................................................................................... 56

Figure 8: Global Mobile Video Surveillance Market: 2011 – 2017 ($ Millions) .................................................................................................................... 61

Figure 9: PTT over LTE Application ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 66

Figure 10: The Public Safety LTE/Broadband Applications Market: 2011 – 2017 ($ Millions) ............................................................................................ 67

Figure 11: LTE and LMR PTT Voice Interoperability ........................................................................................................................................................... 90

Figure 12: Global First Responder Data Subscriptions over Public Cellular Networks by Technology (Millions) 2011 - 2017 .......................................... 97

Figure 13: Global First Responder Data Subscriptions over LMR Networks by Technology (Thousands) 2011 - 2017 .................................................... 97

Figure 14: Global First Responder Data Subscriptions over Private Mobile Broadband Networks by Technology (Thousands): 2011 - 2017................. 98

Figure 15: Global First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2017................................................. 100

Figure 16: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ........................................... 101

Figure 17: Global First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ................................ 102

Figure 18: Global First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ....................... 102

Figure 19: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2017........................... 103

Figure 20: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ................. 103

Figure 21: Global Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 .......................................................................... 104

Figure 22: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 .................................................................... 104

Figure 23: Global First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ............................................................... 105

Figure 24: Global First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ............................................. 106

Figure 25: Global First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ............................................... 107

Figure 26: Global First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ..................................... 107

Figure 27: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ......................................... 108

Figure 28: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2017................................ 108

Figure 29: Global Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 .................................................................. 109

Figure 30: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ............................................................ 109

Figure 31: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions Compared (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ................................................................... 110

Figure 32: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Device Shipments Compared (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ............................................................ 111

Figure 33: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Device Shipments Revenues Compared ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ............................................... 111

Figure 34: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Service Revenues Compared ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ................................................................ 112

Figure 35: Public Safety LTE Device Shipments by Category (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ................................................................................................ 113

Figure 36: Global Private (Public Safety) and Commercial LTE eNodeB Shipments Compared: 2011 - 2017 ................................................................ 114

Figure 37: Global Private (Public Safety) and Commercial LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenues Compared ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ............................... 115

Figure 38: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments by Region: 2011 - 2017 ....................................................................................................... 116

Figure 39: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ......................................................................... 117

Figure 40: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base by Region: 2011 - 2017 .................................................................................................. 118

Figure 41: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 .................................... 119

Figure 42: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 .................... 119

Figure 43: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ... 120

Figure 44: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ............................................................. 120

Figure 45: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ................................................... 121

Figure 46: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 .................................. 121

Figure 47: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ......................... 122

Figure 48: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ...................................................... 122

Figure 49: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Asia Pacific: 2011 - 2017 ................................................................................................. 123

Figure 50: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ................................................................... 123

Figure 51: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Asia Pacific: 2011 - 2017 ............................................................................................ 123

Figure 52: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ................................ 124

Figure 53: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 ............... 124

Figure 54: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 – 2017

............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 125


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Figure 55: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ......................................................... 125

Figure 56: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 .............................................. 126

Figure 57: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 ............................. 126

Figure 58: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ..................... 127

Figure 59: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ................................................. 127

Figure 60: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in North America: 2011 – 2017 ............................................................................................ 128

Figure 61: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in North America ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 .............................................................. 128

Figure 62: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in North America: 2011 – 2017 ...................................................................................... 128

Figure 63: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ................. 129

Figure 64: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 129

Figure 65: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011

– 2017 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 130

Figure 66: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 .......................................... 130

Figure 67: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ............................... 131

Figure 68: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 .............. 131

Figure 69: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ...... 132

Figure 70: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 – 2017.................................. 132

Figure 71: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Latin & Central America: 2011 – 2017 ............................................................................. 133

Figure 72: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ............................................... 133

Figure 73: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Latin & Central America: 2011 - 2017 ........................................................................ 133

Figure 74: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ...................... 134

Figure 75: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 ..... 134

Figure 76: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 –

2017 .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 135

Figure 77: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ............................................... 135

Figure 78: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ..................................... 136

Figure 79: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 .................... 136

Figure 80: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ........... 137

Figure 81: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ....................................... 137

Figure 82: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Middle East & Africa: 2011 – 2017 .................................................................................. 138

Figure 83: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ..................................................... 138

Figure 84: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Middle East & Africa: 2011 - 2017 .............................................................................. 138

Figure 85: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 .............................. 139

Figure 86: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 ............. 139

Figure 87: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2017

............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 140

Figure 88: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ....................................................... 140

Figure 89: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ............................................ 141

Figure 90: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 ........................... 141

Figure 91: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ................... 142

Figure 92: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ............................................... 142

Figure 93: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Eastern Europe: 2011 – 2017 .......................................................................................... 143

Figure 94: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ............................................................ 143

Figure 95: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Eastern Europe: 2011 - 2017 ..................................................................................... 143

Figure 96: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ............................. 144

Figure 97: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 ............ 144

Figure 98: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2017

............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 145

Figure 99: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ...................................................... 145

Figure 100: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 - 2017 ......................................... 146

Figure 101: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2017 ........................ 146

Figure 102: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ................ 147

Figure 103: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2017 ............................................ 147

Figure 104: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Western Europe: 2011 – 2017 ....................................................................................... 148

Figure 105: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 - 2017 ......................................................... 148

Figure 106: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Western Europe: 2011 - 2017 .................................................................................. 148


2012 - 2016


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1 Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Executive Summary

For more than 60 years first responders have relied on narrowband Land

Mobile Radio (LMR) systems for mission critical voice communications.

While many of these dedicated LMR systems generally support basic data

applications such as short data messaging, first responders are often

compelled to rely on commercial (cellular) mobile broadband networks to

support data intensive applications such as bulk multimedia transfers in

emergency situations.

However, commercial networks do not meet the availability and resilience

requirements for public safety operations, where a single glitch in

communications can result in a loss of human lives. Thus public safety

agencies worldwide are echoing demands for the deployment of cost

effective mobile broadband networks dedicated for public safety usage.

While a number of public safety agencies deployed a combination of private

WiMAX and proprietary technology based mobile broadband networks

between 2009 and 2011 to support data intensive applications such as

video surveillance, it soon became apparent that a solution that is

interoperable nationwide and across borders will be necessary enable

cooperation among different public safety entities, and to achieve

economies of scale.

Considering its thriving ecosystem, spectrum flexibility and performance

metrics, public safety organizations worldwide recognize LTE as the de-

facto standard for mobile broadband.


2012 - 2016


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With spectrum already allocated, public safety agencies in the Middle East

and the U.S have already begun to operate private LTE networks.

Signals and Systems Telecom estimates that the installed base of private

public safety LTE base stations (eNode Bs) will reach nearly 80,000

globally by the end of 2017, following a CAGR of nearly 80% between 2012

and 2017, and serve more than 1 Million private public safety LTE

subscribers.

However, it is important to note that, LTE will be one of the most complex

technical changes the public safety communications industry will ever

Nonetheless, service prioritization partnerships with commercial LTE

network carriers will create an ecosystem for operating public safety

devices over commercial LTE networks during this transition period. We

estimate that public safety LTE device shipments over both private and

commercial networks will account for nearly $1 Billion in annual revenue by

the end of 2017.

This report presents an in-depth assessment of the global public safety LTE

market, besides considering the wider LMR and mobile broadband

industries. In addition to covering the business case, the challenges,

spectrum allocation strategies, the industry‘s roadmap, deployment case

studies, vendor strategies, and the application ecosystem for public safety

LTE, the report also presents comprehensive forecasts for mobile

broadband, LMR and public safety LTE subscriptions from 2011 till 2017.

witness which will bring a new set of challenges in its own right. Furthermore,

will delay large scale deployments until the end of 2014.

spectrum, regulatory and budgetary issues in certain regions such as Europe


2012 - 2016


13

Also covered are public safety LTE service revenues as well as device and

infrastructure (eNodeB base stations) shipments and associated revenues.

data from all figures presented within the report, as well as a list and

associated details of 26 global private public safety LTE network

deployments (as of November 2012).

The report comes with an associated XLS datasheet covering quantitative


2012 - 2016


14

1.2 Topics Covered

The report covers the following topics

Business case for public safety LTE and mobile broadband

services

Key benefits of public safety LTE and mobile broadband

Challenges to public safety LTE adoption

Agency, carrier and vendor commitments to public safety LTE

List of public safety LTE commitments worldwide

Public safety LTE deployment case studies

The industry roadmap for the public safety mobile broadband in

general and the LTE market in particular

Public safety LTE deployment and funding models

Spectrum allocation for public safety LTE

Public safety LTE applications ecosystem

Public safety LTE vendor assessment and strategies

Subscriptions, operating service revenue, unit shipment and

revenue forecasts for (private and commercial) public safety LTE,

mobile broadband (WiMAX, WCDMA, HSPA, EV-DO) and LMR

(TETRA, TEDs, P25, Tetrapol, dPMR, PDT, Analogue Radio) user

devices and infrastructure, globally and by region


2012 - 2016


15

1.3 Key Questions Answered

The report answers to the following key questions.

Which countries will be the first to deploy and adopt LTE for public

safety applications?

How will the VoLTE ecosystem evolve and how will this impact PTT

and voice services for public safety LTE?

How much revenue will the public safety LTE application ecosystem

generate in 2017?

How will public safety LTE device shipments vary by form factor

(Handportable LMR Terminals, Mobile In-Vehicle LMR Modems,

Notebook PCs, USB Dongles, Smartphones, PDAs) overtime?

Is a 10 MHz bandwidth for LTE realistically feasible to support public

safety applications?

Does Huawei stand a chance in the public safety LTE market

following its ban in the U.S?

How many first responders rely on private and commercial mobile

broadband networks for their daily tasks?

How will private and commercial public safety LTE subscriptions

compare in 2017?

How will public safety LTE subscriptions compare to other mobile

broadband technologies such as WiMAX and HSPA in 2017?

How many private public safety LTE base stations (eNodeBs) and

user devices will ship in 2017, and how will these compare to the

wider commercial LTE market?


2012 - 2016


16

1.4 Methodology

The contents of this report have been accumulated by combining

information attained from a range of primary and secondary research

sources. In addition to analyzing official corporate announcements, policy

documents, media reports, and industry statements, Signals and Systems

Telecom sought opinions from leading industry players within the public

safety LTE and mobile broadband market to derive an unbiased, accurate

and objective mix of market trends, forecasts and the future prospects of

the public safety LTE and mobile broadband industry between 2011 and

2017.

1.5 Target Audience

The report targets the following audience.

Government/military/public safety agencies

Public safety communications integrators

Mobile network carriers

Mobile network Infrastructure, handset and sub-component

vendors

Application developers

Investment firms


2012 - 2016


17

1.6 Companies Mentioned

The following companies have been reviewed, discussed or mentioned in

the report:

3GPP

Abu Dhabi Police

Airspan Networks

Airwave Solutions

Alcatel-Lucent

Amdocs

Apple

ARASKOM

ASTRID

AT&T Mobility

Atlas Telecom

ACMA (Australian Communications and Media Authority)

Aviat Networks

BAE Systems

BayWEB (Bay Area Wireless Enhanced Broadband system)

Brazilian Army

Bridgewater (Now part of Bridgewater)

Bridgewater Systems Corporation

Cassidian

Catalyst Communications

China Mobile

Cisco

Covia Labs

Dubai Police


2012 - 2016


18

Dutch Police

EADS

Eircom

Ericsson

Etherstack

ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute)

EENA (European Emergency Number Association)

FCC (Federal Communications Commission)

First Responder Network Authority ('FirstNet')

General Dynamics

Harris

Henggeler Computer Consultants

Hong Kong Police Force

HTC

Huawei

Hytera

Hytera Mobilfunk GmbH (Formely Rohde & Schwarz PMR Division)

InterAct

ITU (International Telecommunications Union)

UIC (International Union of Railways)

Intrado

IP Wireless (Part of General Dynamics)

jNetX (Part of Amdocs)

Kenwood

KPN

Ktech Corporation

LA-RICS (Los Angeles Regional Interoperable Communications

System)


2012 - 2016


19

LG Electronics

LG Uplus

Lockheed Martin

Longshine Information Technology Company

MetroPCS

Mission Critical Partners

Motorola Mobility

Motorola Solutions

MX Telecom

NTIA (National Telecommunications and Information

Administration)

NDS Group

Net4Mobility

NetMotion

New York Police Department

Nokia

Nokia Siemens Networks

NPSTC (National Public Safety Telecommunications Council)

Oman Royal Office

Panasonic

Pikewerks Corporation (Part of Raytheon)

Police Federation of Australia

PSCR (Public Safety Communications Research)

Putian

Qatar Armed Forces

Qatar MOI

Qualcomm

Raytheon


2012 - 2016


20

Reality Mobile

RIM (Research in Motion)

Royal Canadian Mounted Police

Rohde & Schwarz

Samsung

Sao Paulo Military Police

Sapura Technologies

SANG (Saudi Arabian National Guard)

Saudi MOI

Seattle Fire Department

SELEX Elsag

Sepura

Shanghai Police

Sierra Wireless

SK Telecom

Sony

St. Petersburg Police Department

Tait Communications

TCS (TeleCommunication Systems)

Televate, LLC

TCCA (TETRA and Critical Communications Association)

TETRA Ireland Communications

TetraNed

Thales

T-Mobile

Turkish National Police Force

Twisted Pair Solutions


2012 - 2016


21

U.S Army

U.S Marine Corps

U.S. Department of Defense

U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Verizon Wireless

Vodafone

West Australian Police

ZTE


2012 - 2016


22

Copyright Signals and Systems Telecom Ltd, 2012. All rights

reserved.

This material is subject to the laws of copyright and is restricted to

registered license-holders who have entered into a Corporate, a Multi-User

or a Single-User license agreement with Signals and Systems Telecom

Ltd. It is an offence for the license-holder to make the material available to

any unauthorized person, either via e-mail messaging or by placing it on a

network.

All Signals and Systems Telecom research reports & databases are

intended to provide general information and strategic insights only, and

they do not constitute, nor are they intended to constitute, investment

advice. Signals and Systems Telecom and its employees disclaim all and

any guarantees, undertakings and warranties, whether express or implied,

and shall not be liable for any loss or damage whatsoever, and whether

foreseeable or not, arising out of, or in connection with, any use of or

reliance on any information, statements, opinions, estimates or forecasts

contained in the reports.


2012 - 2016


24

2.1.1 LMR Market Size

The primary means of instant communications with field personnel has

been narrowband Land Mobile Radio or simply LMR for the last 60 years

Figure 1: Global Land Mobile Radio (LMR) Subscriptions by

Technology: 2011 – 2017 (Millions)

Source: Signals and Systems Telecom

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Other

dPMR/NXDN (Kenwood) /PDT(China)

P25

Tetrapol

TETRA

Analogue

In all the mentioned scenarios, the public always expects government

authorities to respond with an immediate and effective action to safeguard

the human lives and restoring the services (e.g., roads, electricity,

communication, etc.) at the emergency site.

with a subscriptions base of more than 40 Million users, which is expected

to grow to over 45 Million subscriptions by the end of 2017.


2012 - 2016


33

2.6 Public Safety LTE Technology & Architecture

In the context of a public safety network deployment, LTE can follow a

number of deployment models, however, the inherit architecture would

remain the same.

Figure 5: Public Safety LTE Network Architecture


eNodeBs LTE UEs

EPC

HSS PCRF

MME

PGW SGW

Public Safety Application Servers

PTT Video

Other Apps

GIS/Mapping

Situational Awareness

CAD

LMR Base Stations

LMR Terminals

LMR Core

Inter-Working Function


2012 - 2016


61

4 Chapter 4: Public Safety LTE and Mobile

Broadband Applications Ecosystem

In this Chapter we review the public safety LTE applications ecosystem,

firstly by discussing the applications of public safety LTE and then by

reviewing the future prospects of the market.

4.1 Mobile Video

LTE makes it possible for first responders to practially use mobile video

survellience applications.

Figure 8: Global Mobile Video Surveillance Market: 2011 – 2017 ($

Millions)


The market for mobile video survellience is already expected to account for

$1 Billion in global revenues and further expected to grow at a CAGR of

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Moible Video Survellience


2012 - 2016


96

This chapter presents quantitative market analysis and forecasts for the

public safety LTE, mobile broadband and LMR market, at both a global and

regional level

7.1 The Global Public Safety Mobile Broadband

Market

Driven by the growing demand for bandwidth intensive applications such as

large file/multimedia transfers, AVLS and mobile video, public safety

agencies are taking an ever increasing interest in mobile broadband

technologies.

7.1.1 First Responder Data Subscriptions over Public (Commercial)

Cellular Networks

At present, we estimate at more than 13 Million public safety personnel

utilize mobile broadband over public carrier networks to assist in their day

to day activities.

public safety LMR subscriptions worldwide.

However, due to the their relatively slow evolution cycle, and the planned

deployment of private LTE networks for public safety applications, data

2017.

The number is expected to increase drastically at a CAGR of nearly X%

between 2012 and 2017, eventually accounting for nearly X Million

subscriptions worldwide in 2017, which represents as many as X% of all

subscriptions on LMR networks will only account for X Million by the end of

7 Chapter 7: Market Analysis and Forecasts

Documents

The Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market: … Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market: 2012 - 2017 ... 2.9.1 Higher throughput and Low Latency ... The Public Safety LTE