Metal Casting Conference – South Africa 2017

The Present situation and the development trends

of the worldwide foundry industry

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gotthard Wolf,

TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Foundry Department

TU Bergakademie Freiberg | Gießerei-Institut | Bernhard-von-Cotta-Str. 4 | 09599 Freiberg | Tel.: 03731 / 39-4000 |

www.gi.tu-freiberg.de | Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gotthard Wolf| South Africa 2017

Global Foundry production in 2015

1,7 1,9 2,0 2,3 2,6 2,6

4,2 5,3 5,4

10,4 10,7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

45,6

Mill

. t

Global production of Iron and Steel castings (Mio. t)

Global production of Aluminium castings (Mio. t)

Global movement of castings production and consumption

Quelle: DGV, ifo-institut

Market trends for the foundry industry

• Global or regional markets ?

• Market volume

• tendencies

• technical trends

Global or regional casting market?

Arguments pro and contra Global Regional

Logistic

(Just in time/Shipping time/ reaction time)

-- ++

Quality costs - +

Development partnership - - ++

Cultural differences - +

Wages

Production costs Materials

Energy

++

0

0

- -

0

0

Forced local content

(castings with high valence)

+ -

Shipping costs and minimal container shipping times

USA

Europe

India

9 ct pro kg

Duration: 20 Days

10 ct pro kg

Duration: 30 Days

9 ct pro kg

Duration: 35 Days

11 ct pro kg

Duration: 30 Days

9ct pro kg

Duration: 25 Days

11 ct pro kg

Duration: 55 Days

10 ct pro kg

Duration: 40 Days

China

Brazil

9ct pro kg

Duration: 20 Days

Japan

5 ct pro kg

Duration: 10 Days

The global market for castings is splitted in 5 nearly independent regional markets

The independent regional Foundry Markets

1

2

4 3

5

The volume of the future casting market

Depends from:

• the development of the regional Gross domestic product

• the development of our main customers

• automotive

• engineering

• energy management

• construction industry

• electronics

• ship building

Depends from:

• the competitiveness of the foundries (technology, costs, services for our

customers, know how) against other technologies like forging, welding,

plastic parts etc.

1,6 1,7 1,9

1

1,6

0,9

1,9 1,6 1,5 1,6

2,4 2,6

1,6

2,4 2,6

7,3

6,5 6,5 6,2

5,8

-0,1 0,6 0,7 0,5 0,5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018*

Ch

an

ge

to

pre

vio

us y

ea

r in

%

years

Germany Europe USA China Japan

* = Projection reference: DIW Berlin, national statistical

administrative bodies

Gross domestic product

Growing markets for castings until 2020 (Basis 2015)

Europe NAFTA /

USA

Asia South

America

India

Automotive + + ++ 0 +

Mechanical

engineering

0 - + 0 0

Energy

management

+ + ++ 0 +

Construction

industry

0 + ++ + +

Electronics - 0 ++ 0 0

Ship building - 0 + 0 0

Quelle: IHS Automotiv 2016)

Global production growth of passenger cars (2013-2023)

12,9%

6,1% 10,3%

7,5% 5,4%

60,7%

-2,9% -10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%D

evelo

pm

en

t o

f th

e

pro

du

ctio

n

EU Eastern North South Middle East Asia

Europe America America and Africa

Growth prognosis of the global car production (2013-2020)

Quelle: Statista, PwC)

Global production of passenger cars

Quelle: IHS Automotiv 2016

Drive types in the global production of cars (2015 to 2025)

98% 94%

79%

2% 6%

21%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

80,0%

90,0%

100,0%

2015 2020* 2025*

Share

of p

rod

uctio

n

Antrieb durch Verbrennungsmotor** ElektroantriebDrive by combustion engine Electric drive

Global sales in mechanical engineering (Mrd. Euro)

Casted components in power generators

Source: DEWI GmbH

Casted components in wind generators

Source: DEWI GmbH

New installed capacities of wind generators in MW

Summery: Tendencies in the global foundry market

1. The regional casting markets will dominate

2. In medium-term the production sites will follow the regional key markets

3. The volume follows the regional Gross Domestic Product and the local market development

4. The European and American markets remains but the economic growth will be in Asia

5. Following the OEMs, international companies build their new foundries in the emerging

markets

6. We will see a regional casting market but global enterprises

Technical trends

• Enlargement of the added value chain

- Foundry as development partner

- Inhouse machining

• SOP-optimization of production

- reaching the Crest-line

- process planning

• Trend towards complex light weight castings

- Complex castings

- Minimization of wall thickness

• Avoiding all non added value steps in production

• Automation of foundry processes, Condition monitoring of foundry

machines, traceability of castings

Enlargement of added value chain

Development performance

• component design

• design-/component calculation

Casting production

Enlargement of in-house

production depth

• machining

• assembly of modules

Basis expectations of the customer to the development partner

• Support in component development

• ability for data handling

• guaranteed component properties and costs at the time of quotation

(series production readiness)

• process and component optimization during running serial production

• cooperation with Customers and service providers (special know-how)

• Understanding the design criterions of the product

Design criterions of a modern automatic gear box

Design criterions:

• function

• dynamic strength, durability

• fluid mechanics

• NVH-behaviour

• driving dynamics

• thermodynamic balance

• machining

SOP-optimization by specific start- and quality management with all partners of supplier chain

Days of production

Units

per day

Crest-line

Goal Additional production time

= additional costs/

loss in turnover

Quelle: VDA; 2004

Importance of process planning phase will increase

• Time frame is getting closer

• Requirements to the cost calculatory accurancy will rise

• Components will be designed closer to the ‘limits‘, so the process frame is getting closer

• Compliance of assured properties in competition to alternative production technics are

demanded intensively

• Process planning with traditional tools due to the complexity of processes and demands

on the accurancy of the planning are at their limits

New tool:

• Computer aided process-simulation

– of all subprocesses in terms of production planning

– of the total process chain in terms of sequence planning

Complex light weight castings

Quelle: Verband der Aluminiumrecycling-Industrie e.V. (VAR)

Fluid management housing

Shock tower

Minimization of wall thickness (e. g. Crankcase, grey cast iron)

Finished Dimension

3,5 mm

Finished Dimension

5,6 mm

Today Thin wall

Avoiding of non added value steps in production

Energy consumption of cast iron:

Melting: 550-800 kWh/t

Ferritizing/Perlitizing: 650-750 kWh/t Avoidable by modern process technology

Stress relief heat treatment: 350-450 kWh/t No added value!

Avoiding of non added value steps in production

(Minimizing of fettling by avoiding fins and joint flash)

as cast as cast too!

Automatic breaking of the castings from the gating system

Quelle: www.robotec.de

Automation in fettling shop

Summary: Main challenges regarding the production technology in foundries

• Expansion of the value added chain by:

- installation an extended development capacity

- integrating machining as well as assembly capacities in the foundries

• Trend towards complex lightweight construction castings

- Rise in number of patterns because assembly variants will disappear

- Demand for individual material properties

- Reduction of planning stage and start-up time

- Development of production flexibility and new logistics patterns

• High capital asset in automation and mechanical processing

• Skills and qualification of staff must grow accordingly