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Heckman and colleagues: Family, cognitive and noncognitive skills

James HeckmanHenry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor in Economics, University of Chicago

Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, 2000

White

Black

Look again at the relationship between income and college enrollment—is something else causing the correlation?

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

Hispanic

Richest 50%

Third 25%

Look again at the relationship between income and college enrollment—is something else causing the correlation?

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

Poorest 25%

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Controls for parents education, single parent,  urban, and region

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

Strong pattern between income and enrollment decreases controlling for family background

BlackBlack--White gap = 0.5White gap = 0.5HispanicHispanic--White gap = 9.9White gap = 9.9

Drop out ratesDrop out ratesAsian 4.1%Asian 4.1%White 10.8%White 10.8%Black 21.5%Black 21.5%Hispanic 29.7%Hispanic 29.7%

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/hsgec_04272010.htm

Not clear that college entry differences are due to income

Cameron Heckman (2001)

Not controlling for early measured ability, Income difference explains 

5 points of Black‐White gap

4 points of Hispanic‐White gapp p g p

Controlling for early measured ability, income difference explains

0.5 points of Black‐White gap

0 of Hispanic‐White gap

Need to identify source of ability gap.  Heckman believes it is long‐run factors that differ between households: parental education, household composition

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Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University

MacArthur Foundation Grantee, 2011,for research on the cognitive underpinnings of racial discrimination, labor market inequalities, and, in particular, the educational trajectory of minority children. Most recently, he has developed and implemented ideas ondeveloped and implemented ideas on student motivation and teacher pay-for-performance concepts

Fryer, Roland G. Jr. and Steven D. Levitt. 2004. “Understanding the Black-White Test Score Gap in the First Two Years of School.” Review of Economics and Statistics 86(2):447–464.

Gaps already exist when kids start school, widen as schooling continues

Correcting for maternal AFQT, education, and family structure, difference disappears

Richest

Poorest

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

pp

RichestPoorest

Gaps already exist when kids start school, widen as schooling continues

Correcting for maternal AFQT, education, and family structure, difference disappears

White

Hispanic

Black

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

pp

White

BlackHispanic

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Implication

• Source of the human capital investment difference is established even before the child start school

Noncognitive skills

• Stability• Dependability• Perseverance• Consistency• Future‐orientedness• Self‐control• Self‐discipline• Empirical measure in Carneiro‐Heckman: average incidence of dishonest, cruel, noncooperative, violent or disobedient behaviors

Gaps already exist when kids start school, widen as schooling continues

Correcting for maternal AFQT, education, and family structure, diff di

Richest

Poorest

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

difference disappears

RichestPoorest

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Gaps already exist when kids start school, widen as schooling continues

Correcting for maternal AFQT, education,  and 

White

Black

Hispanic

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

family structure, difference disappears

WhiteBlack

Hispanic

noncognitive

Impact of cognitive and noncognitive ability on social outcomes

Tests administered when individual was 14-24

cognitive

Male

Female

Source: James Heckman, T.W. Schultz Memorial Lecture, 2007

Probability of incarceration by years of schooling, holding family background fixed

Lochner and Moretti, “The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self‐reports.” American Economic Review (2004)

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Probability of incarceration by years of schooling, holding family background fixed

Lochner and Moretti, “The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self‐reports.” American Economic Review (2004)

Cunha, Flavio, James J. Heckman, Lance Lochner and Dimitriy V. Masterov. 2006. “Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation.” In E. A. Hanushek and F. Welch, eds. Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V.

Cunha, Flavio, James J. Heckman, Lance Lochner and Dimitriy V. Masterov. 2006. “Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation.” In E. A. Hanushek and F. Welch, eds. Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V.

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Do families matter in developing cognitive and noncognitive skills in children?

Source: James Heckman, T.W. Schultz Memorial Lecture, 2007

Source: James Heckman, T.W. Schultz Memorial Lecture, 2007

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Cunha, Flavio, James J. Heckman, Lance Lochner and Dimitriy V. Masterov. 2006. “Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation.” In E. A. Hanushek and F. Welch, eds. Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V.

Cunha, Flavio, James J. Heckman, Lance Lochner and Dimitriy V. Masterov. 2006. “Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation.” In E. A. Hanushek and F. Welch, eds. Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V.

If early lack of nurturing leads to permanent loss f iti d iti kill thof cognitive and noncognitive skills, can the 

government intervene?  Should the intervention be preventive or remedial?

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Theory and empirical evidence supports intervention at a young age

Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

The Perry Preschool Program

65 randomly selected black children aged 3‐4 in Ypsilanti MIControl group of similar kids

Kids scored between 75‐85 on the Stanford Binet IQ testHalf had two parents

Average mother was 29 years old with 9 4 years of schoolingAverage mother was 29 years old with 9.4 years of schooling

Children spent two school years (2x30 weeks) in the program, 2.5 hours per day in class and 90 minutes per day in home visits 

involving the mother in the schoolingIn today’s dollars, cost would be about $10K

Program ends after two years – no follow‐up

Source: James Heckman, T.W. Schultz Memorial Lecture, 2007

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Source: James Heckman, T.W. Schultz Memorial Lecture, 2007

Source: James Heckman, T.W. Schultz Memorial Lecture, 2007

Source: James Heckman, T.W. Schultz Memorial Lecture, 2007

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Carneiro and Heckman. In James J. Heckman and Alan B Krueger. 2003. Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?MIT Press

Head Start gives 900,000 3‐4 year‐old children preschool at a cost of about $7,000 per child.  75% have family incomes below $15,000

Some evidence of long term effects, b t h t t iti ff tbut short term cognition effects dissipate

Similar results for State pre‐school programs

D. Blau and J. Currie. 2006. Pre-School, Day Care, and After-School Care: Who’s Minding the Kids? Handbook of the Economics of Education. Vol 2. Amsterdam: Elsevier BV.

Quantum Opportunities Program: “the most successful youth development program ever evaluated.”  American Youth Policy Forum

Participants engage in up to 250 hours each of education support, community service and development activities

Focus on highly disadvantaged youth

Modest stipend paid of $1 to $1.33 per hour, over four years totaled an average of $5K per recipient

Five pilot sites: Philadelphia, very successfulOklahoma City, moderate successSan Antonio, too much attrition for siginificant findingsSaginaw, only successful in self imageCity X dropped because it did not succeed

Second round.  Cost varied from $25K to $49K per participant

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Outcomes from the Quantum Opportunities Program 

Lang, Kevin. 2007. Poverty and Discrimination.  Princeton University Press.