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The Population of Bristol - September 2020
Key population trends in the Bristol local authority area
• Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population of Bristol stabilised in the 1990s, followed by a period of unprecedented population growth through the 2000s, particularly in central areas of Bristol. The population continued to grow up to mid-2018 but in the 12 months to mid-2019 the population remained unchanged - this is in-line with the UK population which grew at its slowest rate for 15 years.
• The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some local communities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol.
• In the 10 years since 2009 the total population of Bristol local authority is estimated to have increased by 44,400 people an increase of 10.6%, this compares to an England and Wales increase of 7.6% over the same decade. The growth in population includes a large increase in students living in Bristol during term time.
• The large increase in the population of Bristol since 2002 can be attributed to a
number of factors including a significant increase in births, a decrease deaths and an increase in net-international migration. Births are now the main driver of population change in Bristol, with net migration resulting in a loss of population.
• Nationally, EU net migration has fallen since the EU Referendum in 2016, although
more EU citizens still arrive long-term than leave. The change has mostly been driven by a decrease in EU citizens coming to the UK to work, an increase in the number of EU citizens leaving the UK, together with an increase in the number of non-EU citizens coming to the UK for work and study.
• In 2018/19 there were 56,000 students in total registered at the two main Bristol universities. Over the last 5 years (2013/14-2018/19) there has been an increase in university student numbers of 8,300 (18%). The majority of this growth can be accounted for by an increase in full time students studying at the University of Bristol.
• If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 69,300 people over the 25 year period (2018-2043) to reach a total population of 532,700 by 2043. This is a projected increase of 15% which is higher than the projection for England of 10% and the highest percentage increase of English Core Cities.
• By mid-2031 Bristol local authority is projected to have a population of more than
half a million usual residents.
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Contents
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3
2. Current population .......................................................................................................................... 4
Mid-2019 Population Estimates ...................................................................................................... 4
Population by age ............................................................................................................................ 5
Population by ward ......................................................................................................................... 7
3. Recent population trends ................................................................................................................ 8
Bristol trends ................................................................................................................................... 8
Population trends by age ................................................................................................................ 9
Components of population change ............................................................................................... 11
Small area population trends ........................................................................................................ 16
4. Population projections .................................................................................................................. 19
Population projections .................................................................................................................. 19
Population projections by age....................................................................................................... 20
Projected components of population change ............................................................................... 21
Household projections .................................................................................................................. 23
5. Population characteristics ............................................................................................................. 24
A changing population profile ....................................................................................................... 24
Ethnic group .................................................................................................................................. 24
Country of birth ............................................................................................................................. 28
Migrants ........................................................................................................................................ 29
Religion .......................................................................................................................................... 31
Language ....................................................................................................................................... 32
Students ........................................................................................................................................ 33
2011 Census topics ........................................................................................................................ 33
6. Other sources of population statistics .......................................................................................... 35
National Insurance Number Registrations (NINos) ....................................................................... 35
University Students ....................................................................................................................... 38
7. Population change and policy ....................................................................................................... 40
8. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 42
Useful links ............................................................................................................................................ 43
Contacts ................................................................................................................................................ 43
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1. Introduction 1.1 The population of Bristol is estimated to be 463,400 people1. Bristol is the largest city in the South West and one of the ten ‘Core Cities’ in Great Britain. Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population stabilised in the 1990s and increased substantially during the 2000s. If recent trends continue, Bristol’s population will increase to over half a million usual residents by mid-2031. 1.2 The 2011 Census shows that over the last decade Bristol has become increasingly diverse. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ has increased from 12% to 22% of the total population. The proportion of people living in Bristol who were not born in the UK has increased from 8% to 15% of the total population. In Bristol, there are now at least 45 religions, at least 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol. 1.3 Estimating and projecting the population of Bristol and areas within Bristol is important as it underpins local government finance, strategic planning and the provision of local facilities and services. The particular requirements and characteristics of different ethnic and cultural groups also need to be identified. 1.4 This report aims to build a picture of the population of Bristol now and in the future. The report brings together statistics on the current estimated population of Bristol, recent trends in population, future projections and looks at the key characteristics of the people living in Bristol. Bristol data in the report refers to the Bristol local authority area unless otherwise stated.
1 ONS 2019 Mid-Year Population Estimate
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2. Current population Mid-2019 Population Estimates
2.1 The mid-2019 population of Bristol local authority is estimated to be 463,400. Mid-2019 Population Estimates for local authorities were published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 24 June 2020. 2.2 Within England and Wales Bristol is the 8th largest city and the 11th largest local authority. Bristol local authority accounts for 70% of the total population of the built-up area of the city, which is often referred to as ‘Greater Bristol’, or the ‘Bristol Urban Area’. The population of the Bristol Urban Area is estimated to be 668,400 (mid-2018). Figure 1. Mid-2019 Population pyramid Source: ONS 2019 Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0 - 4
10 - 14
20 - 24
30 - 34
40 - 44
50 - 54
60 - 64
70 - 74
80 - 84
% of the population
Age
grou
p
Bristol Females Bristol Males E&W Females E%W Males
Males Females
2.3 Mid-year Population Estimates are produced for all local authorities and updated annually using a combination of registration, survey and administrative data to estimate the different components of population change. Persons included are those people usually resident2 in Bristol including students and school boarders at their term time address and long-term migrants (i.e. coming to UK for more than a year).
2 The estimated resident population of an area includes all those people who usually live there, regardless of nationality. Arriving international migrants are included in the usually resident population if they remain in the UK for at least a year. Emigrants are excluded if they remain outside the UK for at least a year.
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2.4 Short-term residents3 are not included in ONS estimates of the resident population. Estimates of short-term migration give a more complete picture of migration into and out of an area. ONS estimate that there were around 1,400 short-term migrants living in Bristol in mid-2017.
Population by age
2.5 Bristol has a relatively young age profile with more children aged 0-15 than people aged 65 and over. The median age of people living in Bristol in 2019 was 32.4 years old, this compares to the England and Wales median of 40.2 years. The profile of Bristol’s population by five year age band and sex is illustrated in Figure 1 and estimates for broad age bands and sex are shown in Table 1. Table 1. 2019 Population estimates by age and sex Source: ONS 2019 Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
Age Males Females Persons% share by age
band
0-15 44,000 41,800 85,800 18.5
16-24 35,900 37,000 72,900 15.7
25-49 92,200 86,000 178,200 38.5
50-64 32,700 33,500 66,200 14.3
65 and over 27,400 32,900 60,300 13.0
All ages 232,200 231,200 463,400 100.0 Children 2.6 Overall, there are more children living in Bristol than people aged 65 and over. Bristol’s 85,800 children make up 18.5% of the total population, i.e. almost 1 in every five people living in Bristol is aged under 16. Working age 2.7 Bristol has a higher proportion of working age (16-64 year old) people than nationally – 68% of the total population in Bristol is of working age compared to 62% in England and Wales. The highest proportions are amongst the 20-34 year olds which make up almost a third 31% of Bristol’s total population compared to 20% nationally. Many of these people in this age group will be students living in Bristol during term time. Older people 2.8 Bristol’s 60,300 older people make up 13% of the total population, i.e. 1 in every seven people living in Bristol is aged 65 or over. The proportion of older people is lower than in England and Wales as a whole where 19% of the population are aged 65 and over. There are 9,100 people living in Bristol aged 85 and over.
3 Short term residents are anyone born outside of the UK who has stayed, or intends to stay, in the UK for a period of three months or more but less than twelve months.
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Figure 2. Mid-2019 Ward population estimates by broad age band Source: ONS Small Area Population Estimates Crown Copyright For estimates of the total population see Table 5
1,300
4,800
4,200
5,000
3,400
5,100
3,400
2,800
2,800
3,500
2,500
2,400
1,200
2,300
2,500
3,000
2,900
2,500
1,900
2,500
3,000
2,900
1,900
2,700
1,900
2,400
1,100
900
2,100
2,300
2,100
1,200
400
1,100
19,800
13,200
10,900
13,300
14,400
11,200
10,000
10,100
10,000
8,700
10,200
8,800
10,600
9,400
9,600
8,700
8,400
9,100
9,800
8,600
8,300
7,800
8,900
7,600
7,500
7,600
9,700
9,600
7,900
7,000
6,700
4,600
5,400
3,700
700
3,400
4,800
1,300
1,300
2,600
3,600
1,600
1,300
1,600
1,100
2,400
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,600
2,000
1,500
1,200
1,800
1,600
2,000
1,700
2,200
2,500
1,800
1,000
1,000
1,500
2,100
2,500
800
600
1,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Central
Avonmouth & Lawrence Weston
Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze
Lawrence Hill
Ashley
Hartcliffe & Withywood
Hengrove & Whitchurch Park
Eastville
Easton
Filwood
Windmill Hill
Frome Vale
Clifton
Horfield
Bishopston & Ashley Down
Lockleaze
Knowle
Redland
Southville
St George Central
Hillfields
Southmead
Bedminster
Henbury & Brentry
Stoke Bishop
Brislington East
Cotham
Clifton Down
Brislington West
Bishopsworth
Stockwood
St George West
Hotwells & Harbourside
St George Troopers Hill
Children (0-15 year olds) Working Age (16-64 year olds) Older People (65 years and over)
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Population by ward 2.9 New 2016 Electoral Wards were introduced in Bristol City Council in May 2016. There are a total of 34 wards, represented by 70 councillors. Five wards have 3 councillors, 26 wards have 2 councillors and 3 wards have 1 councillor. 2.10 The number of electors living in each ward per councillor is fairly similar across the city with 4,787 electors per councillor on average in 2019. However, the number of residents living in each ward differs substantially. As a result, statistics presented by ward should be treated with care and rates should be used for comparison purposes rather than counts or numbers. 2.11 The latest population estimates by ward are for mid-2019. The largest ward in Bristol is Central ward with an estimated population of 21,800 people and the smallest is St George Troopers Hill with 5,800 usual residents. 2.12 The age profile within each ward also varies significantly. Figure 2 shows the population within each ward broken down by broad age group. Wards where more than a quarter of the population is aged under 16 include Hartcliffe and Withywood (27%), Lawrence Hill (26%), and Filwood (25%). 2.13 The wards with the lowest proportions of children are all in areas in the inner west and central areas of Bristol including Central (6%), Hotwells and Harbourside (6%), Clifton Down (8%), Clifton (9%) and Cotham (9%). These wards have the highest proportions of people aged 16-24, including a large number of students, as well as low proportions of people aged 65 and over. 2.14 The wards with the highest proportions of working age people are all in the inner west and central areas of Bristol. In four wards more than 80% of the usually resident population are of working age – Central (91%), Hotwells & Harbourside (85%), Clifton Down (84%) and Cotham (83%). 2.15 The highest proportions of older people (aged 65 and over) are in Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze (24%), Stockwood (22%), Stoke Bishop (21%) and Hengrove & Whitchurch Park (21%). More than a fifth of the total population in these wards is aged 65 and over.
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3. Recent population trends
Bristol trends
3.1 Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population of Bristol stabilised in the 1990s, followed by a period of unprecedented population growth through the 2000s, particularly in central areas of Bristol. The population continued to grow up to mid-2018 but in the 12 months to mid-2019 the population remained unchanged - this is in-line with the UK population which grew at its slowest rate for 15 years. 3.2 In the 10 years since 2009 the total population of Bristol local authority is estimated to have increased by 44,400 people an increase of 10.6%, this compares to an England and Wales increase of 7.6% over the same decade. The growth in population includes a large increase in students living in Bristol during term time. 3.3 High levels of population increase have also been experienced in other Core Cities, the highest percentage growth being in Manchester (14.3%), Nottingham (12.9%) and Newcastle (10.8%) (Table 2). Table 2. Population estimates 2009-2019 West of England and Core Cities Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
Area mid-2009 mid-2019change mid-
2009-2019 % change
Bath & NE Somerset 173,400 193,300 19,900 11.5
Bristol 419,000 463,400 44,400 10.6
North Somerset 201,700 215,100 13,300 6.6
South Gloucestershire 259,700 285,100 25,400 9.8
West of England 1,053,800 1,156,800 103,000 9.8
West of England Combined Authority 852,100 941,800 89,700 10.5
Core Cities
Birmingham 1,050,100 1,141,800 91,700 8.7
Cardiff 337,700 366,900 29,200 8.7
Glasgow 581,600 633,100 51,500 8.9
Leeds 743,900 793,100 49,300 6.6
Liverpool 457,500 498,000 40,500 8.9
Manchester 483,800 552,900 69,100 14.3
Newcastle upon Tyne 273,400 302,800 29,400 10.8
Nottingham 294,800 332,900 38,100 12.9
Sheffield 538,400 584,900 46,500 8.6
England and Wales 55,235,300 59,439,800 4,204,600 7.6 3.4 Annual population change in Bristol since 1951 is illustrated in figure 3. Most years between 1951 and 1990 saw Bristol’s population decrease whilst throughout the 1990s
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annual population change was more volatile. Since 2002/3, Bristol has experienced annual increases in population, particularly in 2004/5 when the A8 Accession countries joined the European Union, with the exception of the 12 months to mid-2019 when there no increase in Bristol’s population. Figure 3. Bristol annual population change 1951 to 2019 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
700
300 70
0-2
,200
-2,0
00 -900
-900
-1,0
00 -800
300
-2,9
00-3
00-1
,900
-1,2
002,
300
-4,1
00-1
,200 -6
00-8
006,
100
-2,3
00-3
,000 -1
,300
-3,3
00-4
,400
-4,4
00-4
,400
-4,6
00-2
,700
-900 -2
001,
400
-1,1
00-1
,100 -6
00-5
,500
-4,9
00 -3,4
003,
500
2,90
0-1
,600
0 400
300
-2,1
000 20
01,
600
-500
-400
-300
1,70
04,
300
9,70
03,
000
3,50
02,
900 4,
200
4,10
05,
000
5,00
05,
300
5,40
0 6,80
05,
300
3,30
04,
200
0
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Pers
ons
Population trends by age
3.5 Table 3 shows the estimated population change in Bristol’s age structure since mid-2009 by broad age band and Figure 4 shows the change by five year age band. Table 3. Bristol population change by broad age band 2009 to 2019 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
Broad age band Mid-2009 Mid-2019
% share of total
populationChange 2009-19
% change 2009-19
0-15 years 75,300 85,800 18.5 10,500 14.0
16-24 years 65,400 72,900 15.7 7,500 11.5
25-49 years 160,700 178,200 38.5 17,500 10.9
50-64 years 62,200 66,200 14.3 4,000 6.4
65 and over 55,400 60,300 13.0 4,900 8.9
All ages 419,000 463,400 100.0 44,400 10.6
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Children 3.6 Between 2009 and 2019 the number of children living in Bristol increased by 10,500 (14%), much higher than the England and Wales increase of 8.8%. The increase has been largely amongst primary school aged children, with the number of 5-11 year olds increasing by 27% over the decade. The trends reflect the substantial increase in numbers of births in Bristol in recent years, although the number of births is now falling (see section on Components of Population Change for more information). Figure 4. Bristol population change by five year age band 2009 to 2019 Source: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
700
6,500
3,200
-500
8,100
10,100
7,200
2,900
-1,900-900
2,2002,200
-400
1,9002,900
0
-300
400
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85+
Pers
ons
Age group Working age 3.7 The working age population in Bristol has increased by 29,000 people (10%) since 2009 compared to an increase of 3.4% in England and Wales as a whole. The greatest increase was in the 20-34 year olds which increased by 21%. This age group alone accounted for more than half (57%) of the total increase in population in Bristol during this period. Many of these people are likely to be students (see section on Components of Population Change for more information). 3.8 Population growth mid-2018 to mid-2019 in many local authorities with large student populations is lower than in recent years, partly reflecting smaller cohorts of 18- and 19-year-olds across the UK in mid-2019. Older people 3.9 Although the number of older people has increased year-on-year since 2007, Bristol does not have an aging population according to the official definition4. Overall, between 2009-19 the number of older people aged 65 and over in Bristol increased by just 9%, a much lower increase than in England and Wales where there was a 23% increase in the number of older people. Most of the increase in Bristol was in the 65-74 year olds.
4 Ageing of the population refers to both the increase in the average (median) age of the population and the increase in the number and proportion of older people in the population.
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3.10 The over 85 age group increased by just 400 people (4%) between 2009 and 2019 – males increased by 20% and females fell by 2%. Nationally, the number of people aged 85 and over increased by 23%. 3.11 Decreases in mortality over recent years have resulted in increasing life expectancies in the UK and a narrowing of the gap in life expectancies between men and women. This reflects a fall in the proportions of males who smoke or hold a high-risk occupation5. In 2019, Bristol males account for 35% of all people aged 85 and over compared to 31% a decade ago.
Components of population change
3.12 In the year to mid-2019 births continued to fall and the number of deaths decreased slightly. At the same time net internal migration (to/from other parts of the UK) resulted in a loss of people from Bristol, alongside a fall in international immigration and an increase in international emigration. 3.13 Since 2002 population growth in Bristol has been generated by a significant increase in births, a decrease in the number of deaths and an increase in net-international migration. There was a notable spike in international in-migration in 2004/5, the result of the Accession countries joining the European Union. In more recent years, natural change (births minus deaths) has contributed more than net migration to annual population change (see Figure 5 and Table 4). Figure 5. Components of population change in Bristol 2009/10 to 2018/19 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
6,400 6,600 6,900 6,600 6,400 6,400 6,400 6,200 5,900 5,700
-100
300 200 100 700 1,300 1,100200
-400 -700
1,6002,000 1,100 1,900 1,600
2,5001,100
300 2,100
-1,600-3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,400 -3,300 -3,400 -3,300 -3,400-3,500
-3,400
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Pers
ons
Year
Deaths International Migration Net
Internal Migration Net Births
5 ONS Statistical Bulletin July 2019
12
Births and deaths 3.14 In Bristol, there are more live births than deaths resulting in an increase in the population due to natural change (i.e. live births minus deaths) (see Figure 6). Over the last decade (2009-2019) in Bristol, there were a total of 63,400 births and 33,500 deaths, resulting in a population increase of 29,900 due to natural change alone. Natural change accounts for two thirds (67%) of the total population change in Bristol over the decade. This is in contrast to the national picture where net international migration remains the largest component of population change. 3.15 The number of births in Bristol gradually increased from the year 2000 onwards, reaching a peak of 6,800 births per annum in 2012. Since then births in Bristol have fallen gradually. In 2019 the number of births fell to 5,557, a fall of 18% since the recent peak in 2012. Births in Bristol have not been this low since the year 2005. 3.16 The story of births in England and Wales in 2019 is one of decreases and record lows, with the total number of births continuing the fall. Births in England and Wales are now at or near record low levels and are on a downward trend. The total fertility rate (TFR) for England and Wales in 2019 was 1.65 children per woman, declining for the 7th consecutive year6. Table 4. Components of population change in Bristol 2009/10 to 2018/19 Numbers may not add to total due to rounding Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Births 6,400 6,600 6,900 6,600 6,400 6,400 6,400 6,200 5,900 5,700
Deaths 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,400 3,300 3,400 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,400
Natural Change 3,100 3,300 3,600 3,200 3,100 3,000 3,100 2,800 2,400 2,300
Internal Migration In 25,400 25,200 27,300 26,900 28,500 29,300 29,500 33,800 34,700 36,400
Internal Migration Out 25,500 24,900 27,100 26,700 27,900 28,000 28,400 33,600 35,100 37,100
Internal Migration Net -100 300 200 100 700 1,300 1,100 200 -400 -700
International Migration In 5,300 6,000 5,100 5,800 6,400 7,300 7,200 6,400 7,500 7,100
International Migration Out 3,700 4,000 4,000 3,900 4,800 4,800 6,200 6,100 5,400 8,600
International Migration Net 1,600 2,000 1,100 1,900 1,600 2,500 1,100 300 2,100 -1,600
Other changes -600 -500 100 0 0 0 100 0 100 0
Migration & Other changes 1,000 1,800 1,400 2,100 2,300 3,800 2,300 500 1,800 -2,300 3.17 Fertility rates decreased in all age groups except for women aged 40 years and over. For the fifth consecutive year, the fertility rate for women aged 40 years and over (16.5 per 1,000 women of this age) was higher than the rate for women aged under 20 years (11.2 per 1,000 women of this age); this is a pattern last recorded in 1947. 3.18 Possible reasons for the decrease in TFRs in recent years could be due to improved access to contraception, the reduction in mortality rates of children aged under five years (resulting in women having fewer babies) and lower levels of fertility, or difficulties conceiving due to postponement in childbearing. Rising fertility rates at older ages have 6 ONS Statistical bulletin: Births in England and Wales: 2019
13
affected the average age of mothers’, which has been increasing since 1975, reaching 30.7 years in 2019. 3.19 The Total Fertility Rate in Bristol in 2019 was 1.44 children per woman, down from 1.52 in 2018, and lower than the England and Wales average of 1.65. The average age of mothers in Bristol is older than nationally at 32.9 years. Figure 6. Components of natural change (births minus deaths) in Bristol 2001/2 to 2018/19 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Pers
ons
Births minus Deaths
Births
Deaths
Figure 7. Live births by mother's country of birth Bristol 2001-19 Source: ONS Annual District Birth data by calendar year
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Num
ber o
f birt
hs
Births to UK born mothers Births to non-UK born mothers Total births
14
3.20 Changes in total fertility rate are driven mainly by women born in the UK as they make up the majority of the population of childbearing age (see Figure 7). However, non-UK born women made up an increasing share of the population, which also acted to push fertility rates upwards. The percentage of births in Bristol to non-UK born-mothers has increased from 13% in 2001 to 29.8% in 2019. In 2019, the Total Fertility Rate for non-UK born women in England and Wales was estimated to be 1.97 children per woman, compared to 1.57 for women born in the UK7. 3.21 Statistics are also available on the country of birth of the mother. Figure 8 shows trends in numbers of live births since 1995 in Bristol of the top five countries not including UK born mothers. 3.22 Between 2000 and 2008, the number of births to Somalia-born mothers living in Bristol increased substantially; since then the number of births have fallen year-on-year until 2015. In 2016, there were 306 births to Somalia-born mothers making up 4.7% of all births in Bristol. The increase in the number of births to Polish-born mothers (since the expansion of the EU in 2004) accounted for 236 (3.7%) births in Bristol in 2016. The next highest numbers of births were to Pakistani-born mothers (106), India-born mothers (71) and Romania-born mothers (70). All other mothers born outside of the UK had 53 or fewer births per country. Figure 8. Number of live births to non-UK born mothers Five most common countries of birth of mother - Bristol 1995-2016 Source: ONS Annual District Birth data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Num
ber o
f birt
hs
Somalia
Poland
Pakistan
India
Romania
7 ONS Statistical Bulletin: Births by parents’ country of birth, England and Wales: 2019
15
Migration 3.23 Nationally, overall migration levels have remained broadly stable in recent years, but new patterns have emerged for EU and non-EU migrants since 2016 when the EU referendum took place. 3.24 The ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: May 2020 shows EU net migration has fallen since 2016, although more EU citizens still arrive long-term than leave. The change has mostly been driven by a decrease in EU citizens coming to the UK for work-related reasons as well as a gradual increase in the number of EU citizens leaving the UK. 3.25 Non-EU net migration has gradually increased since 2013 and is now at the highest level since information by citizenship was first collected in 1975. This change has been driven by an increase in the number of non-EU citizens coming to the UK for work-related reasons and a gradual rise in the in those coming to the UK for formal study, driven by students from China and India. 3.26 Since 2009, the population of Bristol has increased by 14,500 people due to net migration and other changes, accounting for a third (33%) of all population change in Bristol over the decade. 3.27 Net international migration in Bristol increased substantially in the early part of the 2000s with a notable spike in international in-migration between 2004 and 2005, the result of the Accession countries joining the European Union in 2004. Since 2004/5 net international migration has remained fairly stable but with annual fluctuations up and down. 3.28 In the 12 months to mid-2019, however, there was a step change in this trend. In 2018/19 there were 7,100 international in-migrants (450 fewer than the previous year -6%) and 8,600 international out-migrants (3,300 more than the previous year +60%). This resulted in negative net international migration, with more people now leaving Bristol to live outside the UK than arriving from outside the UK. 3.29 Net internal migration8 has seen, for the second year running, more people move out of Bristol to other parts of the UK than moved into Bristol from other parts of the UK. The 12 months to mid-2019 saw a net loss of 700 people - all age groups saw a net loss except 18-29 year olds where there was a net gain, reflecting the recent increase in the number of students living in Bristol. 3.30 The main moves to and from Bristol were to/from the surrounding local authorities plus London, Cardiff, Wiltshire and Cornwall. Three hundred more people moved from London to Bristol (5,500) than from moved out of Bristol to London (5,200). 3.31 It is important to note that the numbers of people moving in and out of Bristol to other parts of the UK (population flows) are much larger than the numbers of international migrants to and from Bristol. In the 12 months to mid-2019 36,400 people moved into Bristol from other areas of UK whilst 37,100 moved out of Bristol to other areas of UK. In
8 Internal migration includes migration within England & Wales, plus cross-border migration flows to and from Scotland and Northern Ireland.
16
contrast, 7,100 people moved into Bristol from outside the UK and 8,600 people moved out of Bristol to go abroad. 3.32 Estimates of migration are subject to higher levels of uncertainty than numbers of births and deaths. In particular, estimates of international migration rely, to a substantial extent, on the International Passenger Survey 3.33 To summarise: the large increase in the population of Bristol since 2002 can be attributed to a number of factors including a significant increase in births, a decrease in the number of deaths and an increase in net-international migration. Births are now however the main driver of population change in Bristol, with net migration resulting in a loss of population.
Small area population trends
3.34 Figure 9 and Table 5 show population change between 2009 and 2019 by ward. The areas of highest population growth have been in central areas of Bristol. 3.35 Whilst there have been increases in population across all but three wards over the last decade, there has been exceptional increases in the central area of Bristol. The greatest increases have been in Central ward where the population has almost doubled over the decade (95%), Hotwells and Harbourside ward (48%) and Lawrence Hill ward (34%). Indeed 40% of the total increase in population in Bristol over the last decade took place in Central, Lawrence Hill and Hotwells and Harbourside wards alone. 3.36 The components of population change vary from ward to ward across Bristol. Whilst there have been significant levels of births across many wards over the decade, the population of a number of wards, notably in the central areas of Bristol, appears to be due to large increases in net-migration, including students.
17
Figure 9. Population change 2009 to 2019 by ward Source: Annual Small Area Population Estimates, Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2020
18
Table 5. Population estimates 2009-2019 by ward Source: Annual Small Area Population Estimates, Experimental Statistics, Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2020 Note: population estimates may not add to total due to rounding.
Code 2016 Ward Mid-2009 Mid-2019 number %
E05010885 Ashley 17,200 19,100 1,800 10.6
E05010886 Avonmouth & Lawrence Weston 20,100 21,400 1,300 6.4
E05010887 Bedminster 10,700 12,500 1,800 17.0
E05010888 Bishopston & Ashley Down 11,900 13,300 1,400 12.0
E05010889 Bishopsworth 10,800 11,400 600 5.2
E05010890 Brislington East 11,300 11,800 500 4.7
E05010891 Brislington West 10,700 11,500 700 6.8
E05010892 Central 11,100 21,800 10,600 95.2
E05010893 Clifton 13,100 13,500 400 2.7
E05010894 Clifton Down 11,100 11,500 500 4.1
E05010895 Cotham 11,600 11,700 100 0.6
E05010896 Easton 13,000 14,200 1,100 8.6
E05010897 Eastville 12,700 14,600 1,800 14.4
E05010898 Filwood 13,000 13,900 800 6.5
E05010899 Frome Vale 12,100 13,600 1,500 12.8
E05010900 Hartcliffe & Withywood 17,800 18,900 1,100 6.3
E05010901 Henbury & Brentry 11,400 12,500 1,100 9.3
E05010902 Hengrove & Whitchurch Park 17,200 17,000 -200 -1.4
E05010903 Hillfields 11,900 12,800 900 8.0
E05010904 Horfield 11,500 13,400 1,900 16.2
E05010905 Hotwells & Harbourside 4,300 6,400 2,100 47.8
E05010906 Knowle 13,100 13,300 200 1.7
E05010907 Lawrence Hill 14,700 19,600 4,900 33.7
E05010908 Lockleaze 11,500 13,300 1,800 15.9
E05010909 Redland 13,000 13,000 0 0.3
E05010910 St George Central 12,100 12,900 800 6.4
E05010911 St George Troopers Hill 5,700 5,800 100 1.4
E05010912 St George West 5,700 6,600 900 16.4
E05010913 Southmead 12,300 12,600 300 2.1
E05010914 Southville 10,900 12,900 1,900 17.8
E05010915 Stockwood 11,500 11,400 -200 -1.4
E05010916 Stoke Bishop 12,100 12,000 -100 -1.0
E05010917 Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze 19,400 19,800 400 2.2
E05010918 Windmill Hill 12,300 13,800 1,400 11.4
Bristol 419,000 463,400 44,400 10.6
Change 2009-2019
19
4. Population projections
Population projections
4.1 If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 69,300 people over the 25 year period (2018-2043) to reach a total population of 532,700 by 20439. This is a projected increase of 15% which is higher than the projection for England of 10% and the highest percentage increase of the other eight English Core Cities. 4.2 Over the next decade (2018-28), the population increase in Bristol in terms of numbers is projected to be the 10th highest of all LAs in England. By mid-2031 Bristol local authority is projected to have a population of more than half a million usual residents. The long term trend for Bristol is shown in Figure 10. The projections suggest slower growth than the previous 2016-based projections. Figure 10. Population trend 1951 to 2043 Source: Mid-Year Estimates and 2018-based Sub-national Population Projections ONS
0
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4.3 Figure 11 shows levels of annual population change between 2001 and 2018 together with projected levels of annual population change up to 2043. The projections are trend-based projections, which mean assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the 2013 to 2018 period. 4.4 Population projections are usually published every two years by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Sub-national population projections provide estimates of the future population of local authorities, assuming a continuation of recent local trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The projections do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances, local development 9 ONS 2018-based Sub-national Population Projections
20
policy, the capacity of an area to accommodate population or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. The potential impacts of Britain leaving the European Union or Covid-19 are not reflected in the current population projections. Figure 11. Annual population change 2001-2043 Source: Mid-Year Estimates and 2018-based Sub-national Population Projections ONS
-300
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Pers
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Population Estimates2018-based Population Projections
Population projections by age 4.5 Future changes in specific age groups have direct implications for policy making and planning, it is therefore important to understand the projected changes to the age structure of the area. In Bristol, between 2018 and 2043 all age bands are projected to increase. Table 6 shows the projected change in population by broad age band. Figure 12 shows how the age structure is projected to change over the same twenty five year period. Table 6. Population Projections by broad age band 2018-2043 Source: 2018-based Sub-national Population Projections, ONS
Age 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 number %
Age 0-15 85,700 86,800 86,400 87,900 91,500 95,600 9,900 12%
Age 16-24 73,000 76,100 83,200 87,100 83,900 81,900 8,900 12%
Age 25-49 178,200 187,500 193,300 199,000 207,800 211,500 33,300 19%
Age 50-64 66,600 67,100 65,200 64,600 66,300 71,200 4,700 7%
Age 65-74 31,800 31,500 32,800 35,000 34,900 32,900 1,100 4%
Age 75+ 28,100 30,500 32,400 34,200 36,700 39,500 11,400 40%
All ages 463,400 479,600 493,400 507,800 521,000 532,700 69,300 15%
change 2018-43
21
Figure 12. Change in Population Projections by age 2018 and 2043 Source: 2018-based Sub-national Population Projections, ONS
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Children 4.6 By 2043 there is projected to be 95,600 children (0-15 years) living in Bristol. The number of children is projected to continue to increase, with 9,900 more children in 2043 than in 2018 representing an increase of 12%. Children as a proportion of the total population is likely to remain the same at around 18% of all people living in Bristol. Working age 4.7 By 2043 there is projected to be 364,700 people of working age (16-64 years) living in Bristol. There is projected to be an increase of 46,900 working age people between 2018 and 2043, an increase of 15%. The working age population as a proportion of the total population is likely to remain the same at around two thirds of the total population. Older people 4.8 By 2043 there is projected to be 72,400 people aged 65 and over living in Bristol. In total there is projected to be an additional 12,500 older people between 2018 and 2043, an increase of 21%. The majority of this growth over the 25 year period is projected to be in people aged 75 and over which are likely to grow by 40%. Older people as a proportion of the total population is likely to increase from 13% to 14% of all people living in the city.
Projected components of population change
4.9 The projected components of population change, shown in Figure 13, illustrate continuing high levels of births in Bristol, low levels of net international migration relative to the last decade, gains from which will be offset by more people leaving Bristol to live in other parts of the UK than moving to Bristol from other parts of the UK. Births and deaths 4.10 Births are projected to continue to significantly contribute to population change in Bristol in future. The number of births is expected to reach 7,800 per annum by 2043, up from 6,200 in 2018/19. The number of deaths is expected to remain steady between 3,200
22
and 3,500 per annum up to 2043. As a result, the majority of the population increase in Bristol over the next 25 years is likely to be due to natural change (i.e. more births than deaths) rather than migration (Figure 13). 4.11 One reason for the high level of natural change is because Bristol has a relatively young age structure. Half of the population in mid-2018 were estimated to be aged between 16 and 44 years, the main childbearing ages, compared to the England average of 37%. This age structure results in high numbers of births and low numbers of deaths compared with other local authorities of a similar size but with older age structures. Figure 13. Projected components of population change for Bristol 2018-2043 Source: 2018-based Sub-national Population Projections, ONS
6,200 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,400 6,600 6,600 6,700 6,700 6,800 6,900 6,900 6,900 7,000 7,000 7,100 7,100 7,200 7,300 7,400 7,500 7,600 7,700 7,700 7,800
-3,200 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,400 -3,400 -3,400 -3,400 -3,400 -3,400 -3,400 -3,500 -3,500 -3,500 -3,500
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1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400
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International migration net Internal and cross border migration net Deaths Births
Migration 4.12 Overall, change due to net migration is projected to further decrease in future. There will be a limited increase in the population of Bristol due to net migration up to 2019/20 but from then onwards net migration is projected to result in more people moving out of Bristol to live elsewhere than moving in. 4.13 Looking at the different elements of migration – international and internal - the projections show that the numbers of international migrants moving in and out of the city is likely to remain relatively low compared to the last decade. There is projected to be an increase in the population due to net international migration of around 1,000 migrants in 2018/19, falling to 400 migrants net per annum from 2024/25 onwards. 4.14 Internal migration and cross border (ie moves to and from other parts of the UK) result in large flows of migrants into and out of the city each year but result in small overall changes to the population numbers. There is projected to be around 36,000 people migrating in from other parts of the UK and 38,000 people migrating out of Bristol to other parts of the UK each year on average. Many of these will be students. From 2019/20 onwards, more people are likely to leave Bristol to live in other parts of the UK than people moving in from other parts of the UK (Figure 13).
23
Household projections 4.15 2018-based household projections were published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 29 June 2020. They provide the projected number of households in England and local authorities up to 2043. The projections are based upon the 2018-based sub-national population projections, published by ONS in March 2020. Figure 14. Household Projections by type of household in Bristol 2018-2043 Source: Office for National Statistics © Crown copyright 2020
One person households
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4.16 The number of households in Bristol is projected to increase by 32,400 over the 25 year period, from 192,700 in 2018 to 225,000 in 2043 (see Table 7). This is a 17% increase and similar to the projected increase of 16% in England as a whole. Table 7. Household Projections by type of household in Bristol 2018-2043 Source: Office for National Statistics © Crown copyright 2020
Household type 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 number %
One person households 66,300 69,100 71,500 73,900 76,400 78,700 12,300 19%
Households with dependent children 50,300 51,800 53,700 55,400 57,000 58,300 7,900 16%
Other households with two or more adults 76,000 78,600 80,700 83,100 85,800 88,100 12,100 16%
Total households 192,700 199,500 205,800 212,400 219,100 225,000 32,400 17%
Change 2018-43
4.17 All household types are projected to increase – one person households by 19%, households with dependent children by 16% and other households with two or more adults by 16% (see Figure 14).
24
5. Population characteristics
A changing population profile
5.1 As outlined in earlier sections of this report, since 2001 there has been a large increase in the total number of people living in Bristol which has resulted in a changing population profile. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ has increased from 12% to 22% of the total population. In Bristol, there are now at least 45 religions, at least 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol. 5.2 Although all parts of the city have experienced changes in population numbers since 2001, changes to population characteristics have been concentrated in the inner city and inner east areas of the city, in particular in the wards of Lawrence Hill, Ashley, Easton and Eastville. Central ward has also experienced a large growth in population but this is mainly attributable to a large increase in the number of students since 2001, in particular international students. 5.3 The remainder of this section will outline the main characteristics of Bristol’s population (excluding age which has been covered earlier) using the 2011 Census results and look at how these characteristics have changed since 2001. The following characteristics are included:
• Ethnic group • Country of birth • Migrants • Religion • Language • Students
Ethnic group
5.4 The Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic group (BAME) population (all groups with the exception of all the White groups) make up 16% of the total population in Bristol. This is an increase from 8.2% of all people in 2001. ‘White British’ make up 78% of all people and ‘White non-British’ make up 6% of all people. ‘White non-British’ include the Eastern European population as well as ‘White Irish’ and ‘White Gypsy or Irish traveller’. 5.5 Overall, people who are not ‘White British’ make up 22% of the total population in Bristol - this is an increase from 12% of all people in 2001.
25
Figure 15. Population by ethnic group Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
White British333,432
Other White 21,950
Mixed, 15,438
African 12,085
Black Other 6,922
Pakistani 6,863 Caribbean
6,727
Indian 6,547Other Asian
4,255
Chinese 3,886
Irish 3,851Any other
ethnic group 2,543
Bangladeshi 2,104
Arab 1,272
Gypsy or Irish Traveller 359
Non-'White British' 94,802
Somali population estimate The Somali population are not identified as a separate ethnic group in the 2011 Census but are included in both the Black African and Black Other groups, depending on which tick box people chose on the Census questionnaire. The best estimate we can make of the number of Somalis living in Bristol is to take the number of Black Africans and Black Others who identified themselves as Muslims and to include only those born in Somalia (4,300), the UK (3,100) and other parts of Europe (900). This gives us a Somali population estimate of 8,300. Local knowledge suggests that it is likely that some Somalis, in particular men living in informal accommodation, may have been under estimated by the 2011 Census. Taking this into consideration, the likely number of Somalis living in Bristol in 2011 could be around 10,000. National Insurance Registrations to Overseas Nationals (NINos) can be used to supplement 2011 Census statistics and ONS migration trends. Since 2002, of all local authorities in the UK, Bristol had the second highest number of Somali nationals registering for National Insurance. In total 2,400 Somalis registered to work in Bristol. Only Birmingham had a higher number with 2,750 registrations. The number of Somalis registering for NINos in Bristol has declined sharply since 2002, with only 66 registrations in total in Bristol in 2013/14.
26
5.6 The age profile of the BAME population is much younger than the age profile of the Bristol population as a whole. The proportion of children (aged 0-15) who belong to a BAME group is 28%, the proportion of people of working age (aged 16-64) who belong to a BAME group is 15% and the proportion of older people (aged 65 and over) who belong to a BAME group is just 5%. 5.7 Table 8 shows how different ethnic groups have changed since 2001. The largest increases by ethnic group since 2001 have been in Other White, Black African, Black Other and Multiple/mixed ethnic groups. These changes reflect the large growth in the Somali and the Polish populations in Bristol, as well as an increase in international students and the increasingly mixed child population. The Somali population estimate text box has more information about the number of Somalis living in Bristol. Table 8. Population by ethnic group 2001 and 2011 Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis] Note: the 2001 Census undercounts the population in Bristol by around 10,000
2001 Census 2011 Census Ethnic group number % number % White British 335,085 88.0 333,432 77.9 White Irish 4,321 1.1 3,851 0.9 White Gypsy or Irish Traveller n/a n/a 359 0.1 White Other 10,124 2.7 21,950 5.1 Mixed ethnic group 7,934 2.1 15,438 3.6 Indian 4,595 1.2 6,547 1.5 Pakistani 4,050 1.1 6,863 1.6 Bangladeshi 1,230 0.3 2,104 0.5 Chinese 2,149 0.6 3,886 0.9 Other Asian 984 0.3 4,255 1.0 Black African 2,310 0.6 12,085 2.8 Black Caribbean 5,585 1.5 6,727 1.6 Black Other 936 0.2 6,922 1.6 Arab n/a n/a 1,272 0.3 Any other ethnic group 1,312 0.3 2,543 0.6 Total White 349,530 91.8 359,592 84.0 Total BAME 31,085 8.2 68,642 16.0 All people 380,615 100.0 428,234 100.0 Total non-‘White British’ 45,530 12.0 94,802 22.1
5.8 The BAME population varies significantly across the city - in Lawrence Hill ward 60% of all people belong to a BAME group compared to 4% in Bishopsworth. This difference is emphasised even more when looking at areas smaller than wards (see Figure 16) – in ‘St Pauls Grosvenor Road’ 80% of all people belong to a BAME group whilst just 1.4% are BAME in ‘The Coots’ in Stockwood. 5.9 Since 2001, the distribution of the BAME population of Bristol has changed considerably (Figure 17). Whilst in 2001 the BAME population largely lived in the inner city wards of Ashley, Easton, Lawrence Hill and Eastville, in 2011 the distribution of the BAME population had extended out to the north east of the city. Now wards with a BAME population above 20% include Lawrence Hill, Easton, Eastville, Ashley, Lockleaze, Central and Hillfields.
27
Figure 16. 2011 Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic population Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
28
Figure 17. Population distribution of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic residents 2001-2011 Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
Country of birth
5.10 In 2011, 15% people living in Bristol were born outside the UK, this is an increase since 2001 when the proportion of people born outside the UK was 8%. Of the 15% born outside the UK, 19,686 (4.6%) were born in other EU countries (including 10,520 in Accession countries) and 40,540 (9.5%) were born in countries outside of the EU. Figure 18. Ten most popular countries of birth of Bristol residents Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
6,4154,947
3,8093,279
3,0252,900
2,7702,478
2,329
PolandSomalia
IndiaJamaica
Other EU accession countriesIreland
PakistanOther EU member countries (March 2001)
Germany
29
5.11 There are at least 187 countries represented in Bristol. Figure 17 lists the ten most popular countries of birth of Bristol residents. On Census Day, Poland was the most popular country of birth with 6,415 Polish-born residents, followed by 4,947 people who were born in Somalia – the latter is the 4th highest number of Somali-born of all local authorities after Birmingham (7,765), Brent (6,855) and Ealing (6,468). 5.12 Lawrence Hill ward has the highest proportion of people not born in the UK at 39% of the total population. Central ward has the second highest proportion of people not born in the UK making up 33% of all residents in the ward. Many of these are students.
Migrants
5.13 For the first time in 2011, the Census asked a series of questions about migration, including questions about when people migrated to the UK and what age they were when they arrived. Figure 19. Year of arrival in the UK Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
0
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Born in the UK 365,108 Arrived 1981-1990 4,021
Arrived before 1941 301 Arrived 1991-2000 8,885
Arrived 1941-1950 952 Arrived 2001-2003 7,947
Arrived 1951-1960 2,594 Arrived 2004-2006 12,183
Arrived 1961-1970 4,274 Arrived 2007-2009 12,207
Arrived 1971-1980 3,451 Arrived 2010-2011 6,311
30
Figure 20. New migrants Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
31
5.14 Figure 19 shows the year of arrival of people living in Bristol who were born outside of the UK. Of the people living in Bristol not born in the UK, the majority (60%) have been resident in the UK for less than 10 years. The greatest number of migrants arrived between the years 2004 and 2009, when more than 24,000 people came to live in Bristol from outside of the UK. Of the people not born in the UK, 69% arrived in the UK when they were of working age and 30% arrived as children. 5.15 Figure 20 shows where recent migrants now live in Bristol. New migrants tend to live in inner city areas of Bristol in particular in Central and Lawrence Hill wards.
Religion
5.16 There are at least 45 religions represented in Bristol. However, Bristol is ranked 7th in England and Wales for the proportion of people stating that they have no religion - 37% of the population state they have no religion, up from 25% in 2001. 5.17 The largest religion in Bristol is Christian (47%), although following national trends the proportion of people stating that they are Christian has fallen from 62% in 2001. Since 2001 the religion with the biggest increase in Bristol has been Islam which increased from 2% of all people in Bristol in 2001 to 5% of all people in 2011. Figure 21. Religion Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
Christian46.8%
Buddhist0.6%
Hindu0.6%
Jewish0.2%
Muslim5.1%
Sikh0.5%
Other religion0.7%
No religion37.4%
Religion not stated8.1%
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Language
5.18 For the first time in 2011, the Census asked a question about main language spoken and proficiency in English. This found that there are at least 91 main languages spoken in Bristol. 5.19 The main languages spoken other than English are illustrated in Figure 22 whereby the size of the text represents the number of people who speak that language as their main language. English is the main language spoken in Bristol followed by Polish and Somali. Overall 9% of people do not speak English as their main language. Figure 22. Illustration of numbers of speakers by main language not including English speakers Source: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
Figure 23. Proficiency in English of People whose main language is not English Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
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5.20 Proficiency in English is categorised into people who can speak English very well, those who can speak English well, those who cannot speak English well and those who cannot speak English. Overall in Bristol 1.5% of people cannot speak English or cannot speak English very well (see Figure 23). 5.21 Interestingly, although there is a high proportion of people whose main language is not English living in Central ward (21.7%), there is a very low proportion of those who do not speak English or do not speak it well (2%). This reflects the high proportion of foreign students living in the ward who speak English well.
Students
5.22 The number of full time students aged 18 and over living in Bristol during term time has increased by just over 10,000 from 25,573 to 35,638 (2001-2011). Students now make up 8.3% of the total population of Bristol. 5.23 In Bristol, students tend to be concentrated in particular areas of the city including Central, Cotham, Clifton Down, Hotwells and Harbourside and Clifton, with concentrations also in Stoke Bishop (University of Bristol student accommodation) and Fishponds (University of the West of England accommodation) (see Figure 24). 5.24 Students make up more than half of residents in four Lower Layer Super Output Areas - Woodland Road, St James Barton and University in Cabot ward and University Halls in Stoke Bishop. Note: more information about university students in next section of the report ‘Other sources of population statistics’
2011 Census topics
The 2011 Census covers a wide range of topics in addition to those about the characteristics of the population. Other topics covered include:
• living arrangements • marital status • general health • disability • qualifications • economic activity • hours worked • socio-economic classification • industry • occupation
• mode of travel to work • accommodation type (i.e.
houses/flats) • tenure • household size and overcrowding • car availability • type of central heating • family composition • commuting patterns
More data about Bristol is available from the useful links at the end of this report including summary tables, topic reports and area profiles.
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Figure 24. Full time students aged 18 and over living in Bristol during term time Source: 2011 Census Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]
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6. Other sources of population statistics 6.1 There are a number of alternative sources of evidence that can be used to supplement estimates from the Office for National Statistics. These include administrative sources such as National Insurance records and student registration statistics. Although not able to give definitive counts of the number of people in particular groups, other sources can be used to substantiate ONS population estimates and often to provide pointers towards the most recent demographic trends.
National Insurance Number Registrations (NINos)
6.2 National Insurance Number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK (NINos) are produced by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). The DWP NINo data covers people allocated a NINo for all types of work – including the self-employed and students working part-time – and whatever the length of stay in the UK. It also covers adult overseas nationals allocated a NINo to claim benefits or tax credits. 6.3 The DWP NINo data does not show when overseas nationals subsequently depart the UK, nor does it show length of stay in the UK. The DWP figures are therefore a measure of inflow of overseas nationals registering for a NINo. For this reason, the figures do not show the number of foreign nationals working or claiming benefit at any given point nor do they distinguish between long and short-term migrants. 6.4 The NINo definition of a migrant differs from other published statistics in the area, such as International Migration statistics derived from the International Passenger Survey (IPS), and statistics on foreign workers derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The various definitions of migrants mean the data sources may have different numbers of migrants for the same time period. Figure 25. Total National Insurance Registrations in Bristol for non-UK Nationals 2002/3-2019/20 Source: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/
3,200 3,4004,000
5,500
7,300
6,4005,600
4,200
5,800 5,700 5,9006,500
9,000 8,8008,300
7,2006,500
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6.5 Figure 25 shows that the total number of National Insurance registrations in Bristol increased in 2006/7 following the expansion of the EU in 2004, this was followed by a decrease in annual numbers of registrations to 2009/10. Since then, numbers peaked at 9,000 registrations in 2014/15 before falling and then peaking again at 8,400 in 2019/20. 6.6 The trend in the number of NINo registrations can be broken down by broad World area of origin and country of origin. Figure 26 shows the trend in Bristol registrations pre- and post-EU Referendum for EU nationals, other Europe nationals, Asian nationals and people from the rest of the World. The decline in the number of EU nationals registering for National Insurance in Bristol after the EU Referendum is clear. Figure 26. National Insurance Registrations for non-UK Nationals in Bristol 2002/3-2019/20 by Broad World Area Source: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/
0
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EU total
Other Europe
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Referendum
6.7 A more detailed breakdown is possible by country of origin - figure 27 shows the top five countries based on the number of NI registrations in 2018/19. The pre-EU Referendum increase in NI registrations is mainly attributable to an increase in the number of Spanish, Romanian and Polish nationals registering for NI in Bristol, together with a steady trend in the number of Italian and French nationals. NI registrations fell for these nationalities following the EU Referendum but, with the exception of Polish nationals, a small up-turn in registrations can be seen in 2019/20. 6.8 In Bristol between January 2002 and March 2020, a total of 111,900 National Insurance numbers were issued to non-UK nationals. Of these, more than a quarter were issued to either Polish (15%) or Spanish (12%) nationals. Other countries with more than 5,000 allocations over this time period include: Romania 7,700, Italy 6,600, India 5,300 and France 5,100. Figure 28 shows those countries with more than 1,000 National Insurance numbers issued in total since January 2002. Overall, people registering for a NI number in Bristol come from more than 150 different countries.
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Figure 27. National Insurance Registrations for non-UK Nationals in Bristol Top five countries based on number of registrations in 2019/20 Source: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/
0
500
1,000
1,500
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3,000N
umbe
r of N
iNo
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India
Figure 28. National Insurance Registrations for non-UK Nationals by Nationality in Bristol Only includes countries with more than 1,000 registrations in total Source: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/
17,00013,000
7,7006,600
5,3005,100
3,1003,000
2,7002,3002,3002,2002,1002,1002,0001,9001,9001,8001,5001,5001,4001,4001,3001,3001,1001,000
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
PolandSpain
RomaniaItaly
IndiaFranceChina
HungarySomaliaPakistanAustraliaPortugalBulgaria
GermanySlovakia
NetherlandsIreland
LithuaniaGreece
Czech RepublicUnited States
NigeriaLatvia
MalaysiaSwedenCanada
Total number of registrations Jan 2002 to March 2020
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6.9 The number of annual NINo registrations by Somali nationals has declined dramatically, from 370 registrations in Bristol in 2002/3 to just 79 registrations in 2019/20. However, since 2002 Bristol has the second highest number of Somali NINo registrations of all local authorities after Birmingham. 6.10 A number of issues should be considered when using these figures. Most importantly, NINo statistics only count people arriving, not those leaving. Other issues to consider are: some workers may well have been here before accession to the EU but were able to register legally thereafter; some people get NI numbers elsewhere in the UK but move here; and some people will be working in the area without NI numbers. University Students
6.11 In 2018/19 there were 56,000 students in total registered at the two main Bristol universities - 26,000 studying at the University of Bristol and 30,000 at the University of the West of England (UWE). 6.12 Over the last 5 years (2013/14-2018/19) there has been an increase in university student numbers of 8,300 (18%). The majority of this growth can be accounted for by an increase in full time students studying at the University of Bristol (Figure 28). Figure 28. Higher Education students at the University of Bristol and the University of the West of England Source: Higher Education Statistics Authority 2020
0
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UoB Full-time UoB Part-time UWE Full-time UWE Part-time
6.13 In the last five years alone, the number of full time students studying at the University of Bristol increased by almost a third (32%), the majority of which were undergraduates. Now 94% of students at the University of Bristol study full time compared to 75% of students at the University of the West of England. The number of full time students at the University of Bristol is now higher than the number of full time students at the University of the West of England.
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6.14 The number of overseas students studying at the two Bristol universities has more than doubled since 2001/2. Overseas students now make up 25% of all students at the University of Bristol (5% EU and 20% non-EU) and 13% of all students at the University of the West of England (3% EU and 10% non-EU). 6.15 Based on information provided by the University of Bristol and the University of the West of England, it is possible to map the spatial distribution of where university students live across the city and beyond during term time. The spatial distribution of students at each of the universities differs substantially as illustrated in Figure 29. Figure 29. Distribution of Students at the University of Bristol and the University of the West of England by their Term Time Address in 2016/17 Source: Bristol City Council analysis of student statistics provided by the University of Bristol and the University of the West of England
6.16 The majority (83%) of students studying at the University of Bristol live in the Bristol local authority area. These students are concentrated in the five wards surrounding the university – Central, Cotham, Clifton Down, Clifton and Stoke Bishop. 6.17 In contrast, students studying at the University of the West of England are distributed more widely – 42% live in Bristol local authority, 24% live in South Gloucestershire local authority and 29% live outside of the West of England. Particular concentrations of UWE students are found in the city centre, Fishponds and at the UWE campuses at Filton, as well as along the length of Gloucester Road from the city centre all the way to Filton, with a particular concentration in Bishopston and Ashley Down ward.
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7. Population change and policy 7.1 The last 100 years or so witnessed unprecedented change in the UK population. Estimating exactly how the population will look in the future is not possible to say with certainty. However, recent trends in births, deaths and migration can help to form a set of assumptions about how they will shape the future population. 7.2 Understanding the size and characteristics of the population and how it is changing is important to our understanding of society and the economy. Population estimates and projections are used for planning, resource allocation, business decisions and a broad range of public policy purposes. They provide key contextual information for research and analysis and in calculating rates for key demographic measures, performance targets and economic indicators such as employment rates. 7.3 Below are some policy implications of the changing population of Bristol:
• The increase in population has service delivery implications. Concentration of this growth on particular population groups in certain areas of the city, will have localised implications on the delivery of services.
• New communities bring both advantages and new challenges around cohesion, integration and equality of opportunity.
• Increasing numbers of new dwellings to accommodate additional households is likely
to have an impact on a wide range of environmental, social and economic issues.
• The recent rise in Bristol’s birth rate will have implications for health and education provision in the city. The projected growth in the school age population has significant implications for education provision.
• Large numbers of young people move into and out of the city each year. Provision of
student and key worker accommodation can help accommodate future increases in student numbers without adding to demand on the private housing stock. Over concentrations of people living in multi-occupied households, including students, can lead to particular localised amenity issues. The student population has seasonal impacts and also provide a considerable support to local economies.
• Bristol has increasing numbers of older people, although the future changes in the
age structure of the population are not as acute as other local authorities in the South West. An older population will have implications for primary and secondary health care services and social care provision. A range of health issues, including disabilities and limiting long-term illnesses, may be more prevalent in a more elderly population.
• Population growth in Bristol and the wider sub-region can help support a growing economy through increasing demand for goods and services and moderate the impacts of an ageing labour supply. The relative economic growth of Bristol together
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with new housing provision will, to some extent, generate additional migration into the area. However a range of other factors will influence migration patterns both into and out of the area, including education, retirement, lifestyle, etc.
7.4 Nationally, overall migration levels have remained broadly stable in recent years, but new patterns have emerged for EU and non-EU migrants since 2016 when the EU referendum took place. The latest ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Report (May 2020) shows EU net migration has fallen since 2016, although more EU citizens still arrive long-term than leave. The change has mostly been driven by a decrease in EU citizens coming to the UK for work-related reasons as well as a gradual increase in the number of EU citizens leaving the UK. 7.5 Non-EU net migration has gradually increased since 2013 and is now at the highest level since information by citizenship was first collected in 1975. This change has been driven by an increase in the number of non-EU citizens coming to the UK for work-related reasons and a gradual rise in the in those coming to the UK for formal study, driven by students from China and India. 7.6 Current events we are facing – including the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving the EU, the new Hong Kong British National Overseas visa and the global climate emergency – and their potential impacts on our economy and society, are not reflected in the current population projections. A combination of factors is likely to influence future population change. These include economic performance, health and well-being, household dynamics and finances, the potential impact of conflict, cultural change, social developments, and political and policy responses to these factors, or interventions that affect them.
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8. Conclusion 8.1 Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population of Bristol stabilised in the 1990s, followed by a period of unprecedented population growth through the 2000s, particularly in central areas of Bristol. The population continued to grow up to mid-2018 but in the 12 months to mid-2019 the population remained unchanged - this is in-line with the UK population which grew at its slowest rate for 15 years. 8.2 The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some local communities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol. 8.3 If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 69,300 people over the 25 year period (2018-2043) to reach a total population of 532,700 by 2043. This is a projected increase of 15% which is higher than the projection for England of 10% and the highest percentage increase of the other eight English Core Cities. By mid-2031 Bristol local authority is projected to have a population of more than half a million usual residents.
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Useful links Bristol City Council population pages http://www.bristol.gov.uk/population Bristol Ward Profiles include demographic information on the Bristol wards Bristol City Council census pages including 2011 Census Profiles for wards and other areas and more detailed Topic Reports http://www.bristol.gov.uk/census Office for National Statistics main population pages with further links to estimates, projections, quality reports and frequently asked questions Office for National Statistics Local Area Migration Statistics
Contacts Jayne Mills, Strategic Intelligence and Performance/Strategic City Planning E: [email protected] T: 0117 90 36873 Michael Legg, Strategic City Planning E: [email protected] T: 0117 90 36872 Bristol City Council September 2020
