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The Performance Framework
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Laurent Tabernier EUROCONTROLProject Episode 3
Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009
Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009
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Scope of the presentation
• Objectives of Performance Framework
• Influence Diagrams and Influence Models, what is the difference
• Where the work started (link to SESAR Definition Phase)
• What results have been obtained
• Recommendation for SESAR
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Objectives of Performance Framework
• Design of a methodology to build an ECAC-wide picture of the potential benefits across 41 countries, 2000 airports, 16 million flights/year with 180 proposed improvements is a BIG challenge.
• What were the existing models?
• We have developed a Performance Framework that establishes a methodology to build a model for future ECAC-wide assessment.
This methodology is based on …
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This methodology is based on:
A catalogue of KPIs for consistency and to capture data about the influencing factors.
A better understanding of the elements that influenceinfluence the performances (Influence diagrams) for Capacity, Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability, Safety, Environment Key Performance Areas (SESAR KPA).
Modelling activities (mechanism and mathematical formulae).
The PF provides a methodology and a starting point for acommon set of Key Performances Indicators - this will determine
“WHAT” should be measured.
Objectives of Performance Framework
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Influence Diagrams and Influence Models
• What is the difference ?
An Influence Diagram(ID) is essentially a graphical representation of the probabilistic interdependance between influencing factors.The approach originates from the field of decision analysis and uses expert judgement in its formulations.
An Influence Model represents the elements that are linked and the mechanism and mathematical formulae to combine their influences.
The addition of quantification data to the identified mechanisms will create an Influence Model that can be used to assess the potential impact of various operational improvements (OI-steps) on the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) for each Key Performance Area (KPA) considered.
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Influence Diagrams and Influence Models
Airport
Enroute
TMA
FuelEfficiency
FuelEfficiency
PIs
Taxi out
Taxi in
TMAdeparture
TMAarrival
Fuel efficiency- Airport
Fuel efficiency- TMA
Fuel efficiency- Enroute
On stand
Enroute
d
dArrival sequencing
and spacing
Interrupteddescents
Meteo
STARs
Arrival runway
Airspace structure(Arrivals)
Aircraft Spacing
Aircraft Sequencing
OI steps influencingInterrupted descents
OI steps influencingMeteo
OI steps influencingSTARS
OI steps influencingAirspace structure
OI steps influencingsequencing
OI steps influencingspacing
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Where the work started
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What results have been obtained
TMA Arrival repository
Example of input data from WP5
exercises CDA at Schiphol airport
Example of input data from WP5
exercises CDA at Koln airport
Example of input data from WP5
exercises CDA at Dusseldorf airport
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Airport
Enroute
TMA
FuelEfficiency
FuelEfficiency
PIs
Taxi-out
Taxi-in
TMAdeparture
TMAarrival
Fuel efficiency- Airport
Fuel efficiency- TMA
Fuel efficiency- Enroute
On stand
Enroute
TornadoAnalysis - Fuel
efficiency
To Environment
To Environment
To Environment
Show
resu
lt
What results have been obtained
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From Efficiency
From Efficiency
From Efficiency
What results have been obtained
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Recommendation for SESAR
• IM and PF should be started at the beginning of the validation process (to create a baseline) and should be executed and refined along the project.
• Validation exercises results and experts are necessary to populate those IM with quantification data.
• Influence diagrams and model must be consistent and further detailed where needed (D3 and D4 lesson learnt).
• Influence model should be used to prioritise validation exercises, using the sensitivity and importance analysis features of the tool.
• Influence model can be a tool to understand and explain performance behaviour and possible performance improvements.
• Extrapolation from Local to ECAC-wide is difficult but needed.
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"All models are wrong but some are useful"
G. Box
“Better to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong”
JM Keyne's, Daniel Pauly,
Humour
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28th DASC ConferenceBest of Session award