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The Perfect Storm? How do Ports Plan for the Future?. Congestion. Freight Growth. Constrained Infrastructure. Jeannie Beckett, Sr. Dir. Inland Transportation, Port of Tacoma Talking Freight Seminar, June 16,2004. Steps in the Planning Process. Strategic Business Plans Trend Forecasts - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Perfect Storm?How do Ports Plan for the Future?
Congestion
Freight Growth Constrained
Infrastructure
Jeannie Beckett, Sr. Dir. Inland Transportation, Port of TacomaTalking Freight Seminar, June 16,2004
Steps in the Planning Process
Strategic Business Plans Trend Forecasts Land Use Planning Capacity Studies Planning for the Future
Strategic Business Planning What is your Vision
and Mission? What is your core
competencies? Where are your
Growth potentials? Current Customers New Customers New Line of
Business New ideas
Forecasts World Cargo
Trends US Trends State Forecasts Individual Port
Cargo Forecasts
Issues Are Systemic
Studied 10 major international ports Handle 66% of all containers moving in
and out of the country All face similar congestion-related
problems: Sited in dense urban areas Limited ability to expand rail yards, roadways
and other infrastructure New security controls may exacerbate
congestion by drastically slowing movement of goods
According to GAO’s 12/03 Freight Transportation Study…
Issues Are Systemic Freight movement projects receive
limited visibility during planning and prioritization
Limitations of federal funding for multimodal projects – single mode focus
No comprehensive evaluation approach to implement most effective projects
According to GAO’s 12/03 Freight Transportation Study
Trends Effecting US Ports
Port Land Use Planning What do You want to look like when You grow
up?
Terminal Waterways Roads Rail
Looking inside your Port
Forecast of Cargo Opportunities at the Port of Tacoma
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
300.0%
400.0%
500.0%
600.0%19
90
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Gro
wth
Pot
entia
l fro
m 1
990
Bas
is
Intl Container- Baseline Intl Container-Forecast 1Domestic Container LogsAutos-Baseline Autos-Forecast1Breakbulk Dry Bulk
Actual Forecast
Potential Uses of Tideflats
Widened Waterway At Hyundai WharfWidened Waterway At Hyundai Wharf
732 Ft732 Ft 17 Wide17 Wide 20 Wide20 Wide 17 Wide17 Wide749 Ft749 Ft 18 Wide18 Wide 20 Wide20 Wide 18 Wide18 Wide790 Ft790 Ft 18 Wide18 Wide 22 Wide22 Wide 18 Wide18 Wide850 Ft850 Ft 22 Wide22 Wide 22 Wide22 Wide 22 Wide22 Wide
Waterway Improvements Summary - Blair 2005
Road Network Summary 2005
Rail Expansion Summary 2005
Capacity Studies
Road Rail
Looking Outside the PortThe Last Mile Getting your cargo to Final Destination
Freight Transportation – the future
Where will the needed capacity come from?
Who will pay for it? Who will Benefit? How will “Benefit”
calculations be determined?
Planning for the FutureHow Do We Ensure System Fluidity?
Planning for things we can’t control or influence
Planning for things we can control or influence
Things We Can’t Control or Influence
Mode shifts – all indicators point to more intermodal, less road freight
Longer trains – five years ago, 6,000 ft; near future, 8,000 ft;
Manufacturing trends – China is hot now, but will inevitably cool down; where will manufacturing go?
Transloading and Distribution Centers
Things We Can Control or Influence
Operational methods Local rail network capacity and
configurations Entering new or changed market
sectors Legislative intervention, assistance
and regulatory relaxation Focused funding, new Public Private
Partnerships
Planning For The Future From a Rail industry perspective:
Railroads focus on long end-to-end movements; great for primary markets, not so good for non-end markets
Inland ports, logistics centers, intermodal facilities are the current buzz
“Feeding the beast” takes priority on the West Coast
Freight is cool again, but not in urban areas
Planning For The Future From a Rail industry perspective:
Rolling stock, crew resources, capacity all in high demand, short supply
Railroads are opening up to public investment
Congestion issues are getting attention – GAO report
Feds will have to pay attention to freight mobility funding – a national concern
Planning For The Future From a Port logistics perspective:
Planned stowage by steamship lines Agile port concept (Direct to Train)
will be difficult to achieve Visibility is key; know what’s coming
at you and when Free-flowing trains to inland
intermodal yards? Eliminates much local switching, frees capacity?
Planning For The Future From a Port funding perspective:
Infrastructure improvements hard to justify if not tied to revenue enhancement
Grant funding is great, but administrative overhead can be onerous
Competing with passenger dollars Funding needs will far outweigh
financial capacity in near future
Questions?