50
The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 1 76 151 226 301 376 451 526 601 676 751 826 Hourly NOx Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu) Events, Sorted by Date Hourly NOx Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu) OS Exceed Day, Hourly NOx Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu)

The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership

2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

1 76

151

226

301

376

451

526

601

676

751

826

Hour

ly N

Ox

Emiss

ion

Rate

(lb

/MM

Btu)

Events, Sorted by Date

Hourly NOx Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu)

OS Exceed Day, Hourly NOx Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu)

Page 2: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Overview of Presentation

• Our Theory – The science behind our peak day reduction effort

• The Peak Day Partnership Pilot – What we did in 2018 – 2019 Updates

• What our analyses tells us to date – Who operated – Optimized controls or not optimized – Other emission sources like upwind power plants,

mobile sources and marine engines – Ozone Water Land Environmental Transition

Study (OWLETS 2)

• What’s next in 2020 and beyond? 2

Page 3: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

152 147 143 137 126 121 119 119 118 102 101 99

0

40

80

120

160

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

1-H

our O

zone

(ppb

)

1-Hour Ozone

17.1 15.8 15.9

14.5 12.9 11.7 11.3

10.3 9.8 9.5 9.1 9.1

0

4

8

12

16

20

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Annu

al P

M2.

5 (u

g/m

3)

Annual Fine Particulate 41 42 41 41 39 37 35 33

30 29 29 27 26 26 24 23 20

0

10

20

30

40

50

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Dai

ly P

M2.

5 (u

g/m

3)

Daily Fine Particulate

8-Hour Ozone

107 107 104 94 93 91 89 93

85 77 73 76 75 75

0

40

80

120

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

8-H

our O

zone

(ppb

)

What Have We Learned from All of This?

3

Progress in Cleaning Maryland’s Air

* 2018 data is preliminary

Page 4: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

8-Hour Ozone

1990

Shrinking Ozone

2018*

The Shrinking Ozone Problem: Not just the magnitude, but its nature: “We’re going local”

1998

4 *Preliminary Data: Subject to Change

Page 5: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

EPA Annual Standard 12 µg/m3

5

17.1

15.9 15.8 16.2 15.9 15.6 14.5

12.9 11.7 11.1 11.3

10.5 10.3 9.8 9.5 9.1 9.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annu

al P

M2.

5 (u

g/m

3)

Fine Particle Air Pollution Lower Levels Across the State

* 2018 data is preliminary

Page 6: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

4/1/2018 5/1/2018 6/1/2018 7/1/2018 8/1/2018 9/1/2018

Balti

mor

e 8-

hr M

ax O

zone

(ppb

)

2018 SEASON AT A GLANCE

• 2018: 16 Exceedance Days - Second fewest ever

• Record wettest for most of Maryland and Mid-Atlantic • Randomness continues… • OWLETS-2 Campaign: June 6 – July 6

Page 7: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Our Theory for How High Ozone Days are often Created in MD

7

• Linked to our research on the “Land-Water Interface” – Why are highest levels of ozone often

right near the Bay … close to water?

• The theory 1. Ozone builds up over the Bay

• Transport plays a role … mobile plays a role … but

• How significant are stationary sources that may emit at higher levels on real hot days

2. In the afternoon, Bay breezes push pollution over the Bay to the west, north, northwest or southwest

3. Monitors directly downwind of Bay breeze record highest daily ozone

Edgewood Lights Up

Essex Lights Up

Fair Hill Lights Up

Page 8: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

So Where Does the High Ozone Over the Bay Come From?

8

• We believe there are four major contributing emission sectors to the high ozone we measure over the Bay

• Some research … some expert judgment

• The four most likely contributors:

• Longer distance transport … probably about half

• Cars and trucks - VA and MD - I-95 corridor - probably about a third

• Big and small boats - maybe up to a quarter

• Close-by HEDD Units - Maybe a quarter

Page 9: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

So What is Maryland Doing About These Sectors?

• Long Distance Transport – Huge effort - 126 Petitions, multiple legal challenges related to EPA actions on

Good Neighbor SIPs … Pushing for a SAS initiative on PA power plants that run controls poorly or not at all on peak ozone days

• Cars and Trucks – Huge effort - partially driven by climate change - Clean Cars Programs, EVs, multiple

legal challenges related to EPA backsliding on mobile source control programs

• Close-by High Electricity Demand Day (HEDD) Sources – Several initiatives including daily optimization of controls on power plant units in

Maryland and … The Peak Day ozone reduction partnership (the rest of this presentation)

• Small and Large Boats – Not doing much - still a research issue and an area of major uncertainty 9

Page 10: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The 2018 Peak Day Partnership Pilot

• A Partnership Pilot Program – 2018 … truly a “get-your-feet-wet” pilot – 2019 and beyond … track progress …

refine … adjust

• Based on recent ozone research – Reduce ozone levels on worst days

• The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership – The Partners – The Notices – What we are asking of participants

10

Reference: http://mde.maryland.gov/programs/Air/AirQualityMonitoring/Pages/index.aspx

Page 11: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The Maryland Research Partnership

• MDE works in partnership with other states, local universities (UMD at College Park, UMBC, SUNY, Rutgers, Penn State and Howard University), NASA and NOAA to study ozone and fine particulate air pollution problems

• Major focus … Transport –Airplanes … Balloons … Lidar (laser

based measurements) –Profilers … Satellites … Special

monitors … Modeling –Much, much more

11

30 years … Driving policy with science

Page 12: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Our Latest Research • Transport is still our #1 issue to resolve

– Probably 70% of our problem on any given day

• Since ~ 2013 our ozone exceedance days are very different

• Not big … not super-regional … less transport … one or 2 monitors just above the 70 ppb standard … location is random

• This has lead us to look at the 30% or 40% of our problem that is more local - especially on “Peak” Days

–Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS2) - A 2018 research effort that focused on land-water interface issues and contribution on peak days - local and transport.

12

Page 13: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Why Peak Days? • Three reasons:

– Public health risks from ozone are highest on the worst days – The monitoring attainment test focuses on peak ozone days

• We get to attainment if the 3 year average of the 4th highest level at individual monitors … during three consecutive years … is below 70 ppb … We are very close to achieving this

– A meteorology and emissions perfect storm • Peak days for ozone happen when the weather is hot • When it’s hot … energy units run the most … clean units and less clean units

• Shaving the peaks will reduce risk, help us towards attainment and reduce future regulatory burden on the energy sector 13

Page 14: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The Program in Four Simple Steps

1. We forecast that bad ozone is coming in MD

2. We send partners notices: – Multi-day advance warning when we can – Call To Action Notice for next day

3. Partners do what they can… extra action… that is reasonable… to help reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions on a few days each summer

4. We attain the standard – Less risk to the public – Less regulatory burden on partners 14

Page 15: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

2019 Program Updates 1. 3-day advance warning notice changes:

– 3-day notice often challenging to forecast; will now be labeled as “Multi-Day Advance Notice”; MDE will make effort to issue 2-3 days in advance of a “Call To Action”

– 1-day ahead notice now labeled “Call to Action Notice”

2. Day after reporting from Partners — Work with your MDE contact - Data in EXCEL spreadsheet

form including hours operated, hourly averages for the forecast day of NOx Rate, MWg generated and Heat Input (MMBTU), and urea injection rate as applicable.

— Include any notes - malfunctions, extra things done to minimize NOx, avoided NOx emissions, etc.

— Include the tons of NOx generated during the event.

3. Asking Gould Street Unit 3 and Lehigh Cement to join the partnership 15

Page 16: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Units in the 2018 Pilot

Unit COMAR 26.11.38

(MDs Optimization Reg) MWC Other Unit Brandon Shores Units 1 and 2

Chalk Point Units 1 and 2

Chalk Point Unit GT2

Dickerson Units 1, 2, and 3

H.A. Wagner Units 1, 2, 3 and 4

Morgantown Units 1 and 2

Morgantown GT3, GT4, GT5, and GT6 Perryman CT1, CT3 and CT4 Vienna 8 Westport CT5 Montgomery County RRF Wheelabrator Baltimore, LP

Total - 29 units that are likely to impact the Baltimore, Washington and Philadelphia nonattainment areas

Page 17: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Maryland Bad Ozone Days

61

46 42

19

11

20 26

17 16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exceedance Days

17

Page 18: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Peak Days are Often Bunched Really not 17 individual events

18

Maryland’s Air Quality – Summer 2017

Page 19: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The Air Quality Forecast • MDE has been forecasting future ozone

for over 20 years

• We are actually quite good at it

• What we do: – Prepare a weather forecast using various

meteorological models and data. – Look at air quality measurements, both

local and where the winds are coming from. – Look at air quality forecast model predicted

ozone concentrations. – Met and AQ data, use in-house developed

statistical models to come up with a final forecast number.

– Forecast submitted to national system run by EPA and disseminated to the public.

19

2013-2015 MODEL F FTotal O3 Intercept Climo Previous Day O3BWI Tmax BWI Tdmax

Coefficient 0.33731 0.37403 0.79693 -0.68546Value -3.19 56 70 93 72EquationVAL 18.88936 26.18 74.11 -49.35

64.74

Page 20: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The 2019 Notices • Multi-Day Advance Notice

– Only issued when significant event is highly probable – “High Ozone Expected Soon” – Offers additional timing to prepare to take action

• The Day Before Notice – Call to Action – “To the extent you can … implement the actions we are

asking you to take… tomorrow” – Very high probability of high ozone

• The meteorologist’s dilemma – “If I forecast high ozone and voluntary action keeps ozone

lower … did I blow the forecast ???”

20

Page 21: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Sample Email Notices

21

Page 22: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

MDE’s Ask of Participants

• This is a voluntary program… we asked sources to do what they can – If we succeed, then the next round of regulations needed to comply with

the 70 ppb ozone standard can be avoided.

• Our simple asks: – For units subject to the emission reduction optimization requirements of

COMAR 26.11.38.03A(2) … please make all reasonable efforts to run at rates that are at or below the indicator rates listed at 26.11.38.05A(2)

– For Municipal Waste Combustors (MWC) and Lehigh, optimize the use of your current control technologies to minimize NOx emissions and make all other reasonable efforts to reduce NOx emissions

– For other units that are not subject to COMAR 26.11.38 MDE asked that they either choose to not run the unit or to make all reasonable efforts to minimize NOx emissions from the unit if it does run

– Take any other reasonable actions that you can to reduce NOx emissions

22

Page 23: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Program Analysis

• MDE is working on a comprehensive data analysis for the 2018 pilot – Episodic meteorological analysis focusing on winds and other criteria

that allow us to link regional transport and specific local emission sources to high ozone events

– Detailed analysis of hourly and daily unit specific emissions and control technology optimization

– Numerous other analyses

• Potential Future Program Enhancements: – Adding or deleting units – Improving forecasting and notices – Refined, additional ozone forecast areas – A more focused ask (targeting fewer units for action for certain days) – More…

23

Page 24: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The “Post Mortem” Detailed Analysis of Meteorology for Every Exceedance Day

• A comprehensive meteorological analysis is completed after each bad air day.

• If desired, we can provide a one page summary that includes: – Back trajectories – Measurements taken (aloft and

surface) – Analysis of transport or local

contribution … or a combination of the two

– Number and location of monitors that exceeded

– Much more

24

Page 25: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

25

Only a few units in Maryland operating. Most of the load satisfied, yet dirty unit operating with high NOx emissions and small load produced.

Emissions Analyses - Example 1 Who Emitted … At What Rates

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

COAL

G

ross

Loa

d (M

W-h

), O

IL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

NAT

GAS

N

Ox

(pou

nds)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Uni

t 1

Uni

t 3

Uni

t 5

Uni

t 7

Uni

t 9

Uni

t 11

Uni

t 13

Uni

t 15

Uni

t 17

Uni

t 19

Uni

t 21

Uni

t 23

Uni

t 25

Uni

t 27

Uni

t 29

Uni

t 31

Uni

t 33

Uni

t 35

Uni

t 37

Uni

t 39

Uni

t 41

Uni

t 43

Uni

t 45

Uni

t 47

Gross Load (MW-h), COAL Gross Load (MW-h), OIL Gross Load (MW-h), NAT GAS NOx (pounds)

06/15/2017

Rates less than 0.075 lb NOx/MMBtu

Small energy produced … Cleaner units Available … 2 tons is a lot of NOx Emissions

Rates between

0.075 and 0.15 lb

NOx/MMBtu

Rates greater than 0.30 lb NOx/MMBtu

Rates between 0.15 and 0.30 lb NOx/

MMBtu

Page 26: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

26

NOx emission rates during ozone exceedance days can be higher than demonstrated best achievable NOx emission rate.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

1 21

41

61

81

101

121

141

161

181

201

221

241

261

281

301

321

341

361

381

401

421

441

461

481

501

521

541

561

581

601

621

641

661

681

701

721

741

761

781

801

821

841

861

881

Hour

ly N

Ox

Emis

sion

Rat

e (lb

/MM

Btu)

Hours of Operation Hourly NOx Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu) OS Exceed Day, Hourly NOx Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu)

UNIT XX, 2017 Ozone Season, Hourly NOx Emission Rate Sorted by date, hours when the unit operated only

Emissions Analysis … Example 2 Are Controls Optimized on Bad Days?

Page 28: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

28

• Pilot Program began July 16th

• When exceedance was forecast, emails were sent out to partners requesting action and more detailed record keeping

• System was only used 4 times … so this is a small sample size

• Had exceedances on 8/27 and 9/6 that were not forecast

Date Forecast MD Max O3 (ppb)

Actual MD Max O3 (ppb)

Aug 6th 72 69

Aug 10th 71 73

Aug 16th 73 68

Aug 28th 80 64

What Happened in General

Page 29: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 6th - Post Mortem - Near Exceedance

Summary Forecast: Observed: Padonia:

Furley: Beltsville Castnet:

Weather •91F High at BWI •SSW 5-7 mph •Partly Sunny, Scattered PM Showers/Storms

Radar imagery from August 6th, 2:25PM showing scattered thunderstorms across the region

Unanticipated Thunderstorm Activity •Weather models did a poor job with convection •Urban heat island aided in convection where ozone concentrations were highest 29 Did HEDD units do anything?

Page 30: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 6 Operational Data Units That Did Not Run

Unit Comment

Wagner Units 1, 2 and 4 Did Not Operate

Morgantown Units 1 and 2 Did Not Operate

Mogantown GT3, 4, 5, and 6 Did Not Operate

Chalk Point Units 1 and 2 Did Not Operate

Perryman CT 1, 3, and 4 Did Not Operate

Westport CT5 Did Not Operate

- 15 of 29 units did not operate

Page 31: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 6 Operational Data Units That Ran

Unit Duration Rate Comment

Brandon Unit 1 24 hours 0.04 lb/mmBTU

Brandon Unit 2 24 hours 0.05 lb/mmBTU

Wagner Unit 3 24 hours 0.06 lb/mmBTU

Chalk Point GT2 76 minutes 1.2 lb/mmBTU

Dickerson 1,2&3 24 hours 0.25 lb/mmBTU Unit 1 malfunction

Vienna 8 10 hours 0.16 lb/mmBTU excluding 4 startup/shut hours

Wheelabrator Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3

166 ppm 151 ppm 140 ppm

24-hour average May have doubled urea rate

MCRFF Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3

96 ppm 106 ppm 106 ppm

24-hour average

Page 32: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

COAL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

OIL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

NAT

NO

x (p

ound

s)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000 CP

V En

ergy

GT2

CP

V En

ergy

GT1

Ke

ys 1

1 Ke

ys 1

2 W

ildca

t CT1

W

ildca

t CT2

Pe

rrym

an 6

-2

Perr

yman

6-1

Br

andy

win

e 1

Bran

dyw

ine

2 Ro

ck S

prin

gs 1

Ro

ck S

prin

gs 3

Ro

ck S

prin

gs 2

Ro

ck S

prin

gs 4

M

orga

ntow

n 1

Mor

gant

own

2 Br

ando

n Sh

ores

1

Herb

ert A

Wag

ner 1

Br

ando

n Sh

ores

2

Herb

ert A

Wag

ner 3

Pe

rrym

an *

*51

Dick

erso

n G

T3

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT5

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T6

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT3

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T4

Dick

erso

n G

T2

Herb

ert A

Wag

ner 4

Ch

alk

Poin

t 3

Gou

ld S

tree

t 3

Herb

ert A

Wag

ner 2

Ch

alk

Poin

t 1

Chal

k Po

int 4

Vien

na 8

Chal

k Po

int 2

Dick

erso

n 2

Dick

erso

n 3

Chal

k Po

int S

MEC

O

Dick

erso

n 1

C P

Cran

e 1

Wes

tpor

t CT5

C P

Cran

e 2

Mor

gant

own

GT3

Mor

gant

own

GT4

Mor

gant

own

GT5

Mor

gant

own

GT6

Perr

yman

CT1

Perr

yman

CT4

Perr

yman

CT3

Chal

k Po

int G

T2

Gross Load (MW-h), COAL Gross Load (MW-h), OIL Gross Load (MW-h), NAT GAS NOx (pounds)

Forecast Ozone: 72 ppb … Actual Ozone: 69 ppb

August 6 - Are the Right Units Running?

Page 33: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Summary Forecast: Observed: Edgewood:

Essex: PG EQ Center:

Weather •91F High at BWI •WNW ~ 5 mph •Thin Cirrus

Local; City to Suburb – Classic Bay Breeze Setup •Upstream concentrations low (below 50 ppb) •Bay concentrations however were rising •Day 2 of high ozone over the bay with light NW and warm temps •Ozone bled ashore as bay breezes developed, PG was downwind of DC plume

33

August 10th - Post Mortem - Exceedance

Did HEDD units do anything?

Page 34: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 10 Operational Data Units That Did Not Run

Unit Comment

Wagner Units 2 and 4 Did Not Operate

Morgantown Units 1 and 2 Did Not Operate

Mogantown GT3 and 6 Did Not Operate

Chalk Point Units 1 and 2 Did Not Operate

Chalk Point GT2 Did Not Operate

Vienna 8 Did Not Operate

Perryman CT 1, 3, and 4 Did Not Operate

Westport CT5 Did Not Operate

- 14 of 29 units did not operate

Page 35: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 10 Operational Data Units That Ran

Unit Duration Rate Comment

Brandon Unit 1 23.83 hours 0.04 lb/mmBTU

Brandon Unit 2 24 hours 0.05 lb/mmBTU

Wagner Unit 1 10.35 hours 0.03 lb/mmBTU

Wagner Unit 3 19.92 hours 0.06 lb/mmBTU

Morgantown GT4 151 minutes 0.54 lb/mmBTU

Morgantown GT5 104 minutes 0.54 lb/mmBTU

Dickerson 1,2&3 24 hours 0.21 lb/mmBTU

Wheelabrator Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3

152 ppm 145 ppm 126 ppm

24-hour average May have doubled urea rate

MCRFF Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3

96 ppm 106 ppm 106 ppm

24-hour average

Page 36: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h), …

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

OIL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h), …

N

Ox

(pou

nds)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

CPV

Ener

gy G

T2

CPV

Ener

gy G

T1

Keys

11

Keys

12

Wild

cat C

T1

Wild

cat C

T2

Perr

yman

6-2

Pe

rrym

an 6

-1

Bran

dyw

ine

1 Br

andy

win

e 2

Rock

Spr

ings

1

Rock

Spr

ings

3

Rock

Spr

ings

2

Rock

Spr

ings

4

Mor

gant

own

1 M

orga

ntow

n 2

Bran

don

Shor

es 1

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 1

Bran

don

Shor

es 2

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 3

Perr

yman

**5

1 Di

cker

son

GT3

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T5

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT6

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T3

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT4

Di

cker

son

GT2

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 4

Chal

k Po

int 3

G

ould

Str

eet 3

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 2

Chal

k Po

int 1

Chal

k Po

int 4

Vien

na 8

Chal

k Po

int 2

Dick

erso

n 2

Dick

erso

n 3

Chal

k Po

int S

MEC

O

Dick

erso

n 1

C P

Cran

e 1

Wes

tpor

t CT5

C P

Cran

e 2

Mor

gant

own

GT3

Mor

gant

own

GT4

Mor

gant

own

GT5

Mor

gant

own

GT6

Perr

yman

CT1

Perr

yman

CT4

Perr

yman

CT3

Chal

k Po

int G

T2

Gross Load (MW-h), COAL Gross Load (MW-h), OIL Gross Load (MW-h), NAT GAS NOx (pounds)

Forecast Ozone: 71 ppb … Actual Ozone: 73 ppb

August 10 - Are the Right Units Running?

Page 37: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Summary Forecast: Observed: Glen Burnie: Weather •92F High at BWI •Winds Calm, becoming S ~5 mph •Cloudy to start, clearing, heavy smoke/aerosol screening

Unknown suspect smoke screening and vertical mixing •Slow start to ozone formation (morning clouds) •Afternoon mix out •Smoke screening limiting UV light: 10-15% Reduction

Smoke

Lidar from UMBC showing smoke i n mid-levels 37

August 16th - Post Mortem - Near Exceedance

Did HEDD units do anything?

Page 38: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 16 Operational Data Units That Did Not Run

Unit Comment

Wagner Units 1, 2, 3 and 4 Did Not Operate

Mogantown GT3, 4, 5 and 6 Did Not Operate

Dickerson Units 1, 2, and 3 Did Not Operate

Vienna 8 Did Not Operate

Perryman CT 1, 3, and 4 Did Not Operate

Westport CT5 Did Not Operate

- 16 of 29 units did not operate

Page 39: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 16 Operational Data Units That Ran

Unit Duration Rate Comment

Brandon Unit 1 24 hours 0.04 lb/mmBTU

Brandon Unit 2 24 hours 0.05 lb/mmBTU

Morgantown U1 23.77 hours 0.05 lb/mmBTU

Morgantown U2 24 hours 0.05 lb/mmBTU

Chalk Units 1&2 24 hours 0.19 lb/mmBTU Chalk 2 only ran 19.08 hours

Chalk GT2 108 minutes 1.2 lb/mmBTU

Wheelabrator Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3

155 ppm 149 ppm 129 ppm

24-hour average May have doubled urea rate

MCRFF Unit 1 Unit 3

87 ppm 67 ppm

24-hour average

Page 40: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

COAL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

OIL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h), …

N

Ox

(pou

nds)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

CPV

Ener

gy G

T2

CPV

Ener

gy G

T1

Keys

11

Keys

12

Wild

cat C

T1

Wild

cat C

T2

Perr

yman

6-2

Pe

rrym

an 6

-1

Bran

dyw

ine

1 Br

andy

win

e 2

Rock

Spr

ings

1

Rock

Spr

ings

3

Rock

Spr

ings

2

Rock

Spr

ings

4

Mor

gant

own

1 M

orga

ntow

n 2

Bran

don

Shor

es 1

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 1

Bran

don

Shor

es 2

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 3

Perr

yman

**5

1 Di

cker

son

GT3

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T5

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT6

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T3

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT4

Di

cker

son

GT2

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 4

Chal

k Po

int 3

G

ould

Str

eet 3

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 2

Chal

k Po

int 1

Chal

k Po

int 4

Vien

na 8

Chal

k Po

int 2

Dick

erso

n 2

Dick

erso

n 3

Chal

k Po

int S

MEC

O

Dick

erso

n 1

C P

Cran

e 1

Wes

tpor

t CT5

C P

Cran

e 2

Mor

gant

own

GT3

Mor

gant

own

GT4

Mor

gant

own

GT5

Mor

gant

own

GT6

Perr

yman

CT1

Perr

yman

CT4

Perr

yman

CT3

Chal

k Po

int G

T2

Gross Load (MW-h), COAL Gross Load (MW-h), OIL Gross Load (MW-h), NAT GAS NOx (pounds)

Forecast Ozone: 73 ppb … Actual Ozone: 68 ppb

August 16 - Are the Right Units Running?

Page 41: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Summary Forecast: Observed: Furley: Weather •95F High at BWI •Winds Calm, becoming SW ~5 mph •Sunny, hazy

Transient Plume of Very Local Ozone • Ozone around 90ppb developed over the Bay by midday, impacted Edgewood • Concentrations dropped 40ppb in a matter of 60 mins between 2 and 3 pm. • Limited fair weather CU suggest vertical mixing was not the culprit for sudden drop • No change in wind direction when the ozone dropped • This supports a theory of a sudden “shut off” either early Tuesday or carry over from Monday

41

August 28th - Post Mortem - Near Exceedance

Did HEDD units do anything?

Page 42: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 28 Operational Data Units That Did Not Run

Unit Comment

Wagner Units 2 and 4 Did Not Operate

Morgantown Unit 1 Did Not Operate

Mogantown GT4, 5 and 6 Did Not Operate

Chalk Point Units 1 and 2 Did Not Operate

Chalk Point GT2 Did Not Operate

Vienna 8 Did Not Operate

Perryman CT 1, 3, and 4 Did Not Operate

Westport CT5 Did Not Operate

- 14 of 29 units did not operate

Page 43: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

August 28 Operational Data Units That Ran

Unit Duration Rate Comment

Brandon Unit 1 24 hours 0.04 lb/mmBTU

Brandon Unit 2 24 hours 0.05 lb/mmBTU

Wagner Unit 1 20.72 hours 0.19 lb/mmBTU

Wagner Unit 3 24 hours 0.06 lb/mmBTU

Morgantown U2 24 hours 0.04 lb/mmBTU

Morgantown GT3 22 minutes 0.54 lb/mmBTU

Dickerson 1,2&3 21.73 hours 0.19 lb/mmBTU Unit 1 ran 0 hrs, 2 ran 2.2 hrs, 3 ran 21.73 hrs

Wheelabrator Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3

125 ppm 120 ppm 100 ppm

24-hour average May have doubled urea rate

MCRFF Unit 2 Unit 3

97 ppm 86 ppm

24-hour average

Page 44: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

COAL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h),

OIL

Gro

ss L

oad

(MW

-h), …

N

Ox

(pou

nds)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

CPV

Ener

gy G

T2

CPV

Ener

gy G

T1

Keys

11

Keys

12

Wild

cat C

T1

Wild

cat C

T2

Perr

yman

6-2

Pe

rrym

an 6

-1

Bran

dyw

ine

1 Br

andy

win

e 2

Rock

Spr

ings

1

Rock

Spr

ings

3

Rock

Spr

ings

2

Rock

Spr

ings

4

Mor

gant

own

1 M

orga

ntow

n 2

Bran

don

Shor

es 1

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 1

Bran

don

Shor

es 2

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 3

Perr

yman

**5

1 Di

cker

son

GT3

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T5

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT6

Ch

alk

Poin

t **G

T3

Chal

k Po

int *

*GT4

Di

cker

son

GT2

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 4

Chal

k Po

int 3

G

ould

Str

eet 3

He

rber

t A W

agne

r 2

Chal

k Po

int 1

Chal

k Po

int 4

Vien

na 8

Chal

k Po

int 2

Dick

erso

n 2

Dick

erso

n 3

Chal

k Po

int S

MEC

O

Dick

erso

n 1

C P

Cran

e 1

Wes

tpor

t CT5

C P

Cran

e 2

Mor

gant

own

GT3

Mor

gant

own

GT4

Mor

gant

own

GT5

Mor

gant

own

GT6

Perr

yman

CT1

Perr

yman

CT4

Perr

yman

CT3

Chal

k Po

int G

T2

Gross Load (MW-h), COAL Gross Load (MW-h), OIL Gross Load (MW-h), NAT GAS NOx (pounds)

Forecast Ozone: 80 ppb … Actual Ozone: 64 ppb

August 28 - Are the Right Units Running?

Page 45: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

Next Steps - 2019 and Beyond • Full summer implementation in 2019 - Still a pilot

• Webinars with partners on what we saw and what we learned

• Add several new partners … think about mobile and boats

• Adjust messages in notices and other communications slightly

• Continue to collect data and refine analyses

• Explore … based upon OWLETS 2 … whether we can be even more targeted in pushing for extra action

45

Page 46: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

The 2019 Peak Day Partnership Pilot

• Ozone season starts on April 1, 2019

• Partners will receive a test email notification before the end of March – Feel free to add email addresses for other individuals

in your company who would like to be cc’d

• Unlikely … but possible … for voluntary action notifications in April … More likely May

• Talk to your MDE contact to establish a clear communication process on this partnership

• Feel free to set up individual calls or meetings if desired

46

Page 47: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

47

Quick Note on 2018 Owlets Effort Much more in a few minutes

Page 48: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

OWLETS-2 Participants • Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE) • Maryland Environmental Services (MES) • Maryland Port Administration (MPA) • Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) • University of Maryland College Park (UMCP) • Howard University (HU) • Hampton University (HU) • Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) • Anne Arundel County (AAC) • Peninsula Drone Services,LLC

• PENINSULA DRONE SERVICES, WILLIAMSBURG, VA, 23185, UNITED STATES •[email protected]

• Bill’s Boats • Tolchester Marina • Interns • Many More…

48

Data available: https://www-air.larc.nasa.gov/missions/owlets/reports.2018/index.html

Page 49: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

OWLETS2 What Are Some Early Take Away Messages

• The one you always get from researchers … – More Research Needed !!!

• Still very early … definitely beginning to put the pieces together

• Some early conclusions

• Ozone above the Bay is high and fairly complicated

• We saw incredible vertical gradients in ozone above the Bay

• Did see linkages between high ozone over the Bay and specific HEDD partner sources on some days

• Also saw linkage between high ozone and large and small boats -- much more to be done

• More data analysis ongoing … much more later 49

Page 50: The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership · The Peak Ozone Day Reduction Partnership 2019 Kickoff Meeting – 3/25/19 - Tad Aburn, MDE 0.00 . 0.20 0.40 . 0.60 . 1 76 151 226 301 376

50

A

Questions … Comments … Discussion