The Path to New Mobility...The information contained in this presentation is confidential. Any unauthorized use, disclosure, reproduction, or dissemination, in full or in part, in

Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

The Path to New MobilityStephanie Brinley, Principal Analyst

5 March 2019


Today

2019 CAR: Bridging Detroit and Silicon Valley

2

• Sales Outlook

• The New Mobility Business

• The Path to New Mobility


Sales Outlook


3


Global auto sales: Growth in emerging markets

4


2017 to 2027

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Mill

ions

Greater China Europe North America South Asia Japan/Korea South America Middle East/Africa

Global sales forecast

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Greater China30%

Europe22%

North America

22%

South Asia9%

Japan/Korea7%

South America

5%

Middle East/Africa

5%

Greater China31%

Europe20%North America

18%

South Asia13%

Japan/Korea6%

South America

6%

Middle East/Africa

6%


North American auto sales

5


Volume hovers around 20 million units

Third largest region—behind China, Europe

US remains second-largest market, behind China

US light-vehicle sales: Near term contraction to 16.3

mil in 2022; then return to growth

Mexico impacted by election and trade uncertainties.

Growth returns in 2020

Canadian sales declined in 2018 after 8 yrs growth

Region: 2.4% decline in 2019; growth in 2023

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

United States Canada Mexico Total

North American sales growth


0

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Mill

ions

Canada Mexico United States Total

North American light-vehicle sales



US market: Near term decline, strong volume

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7.3 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0

5.8 5.1 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Mill

ions

SUV Car Pickup Van MPV Sport

US light-vehicle sales



The New Mobility Business


7


Future

mobility

Traditional

mobility

The “New Mobility Paradigm Shift” A race to the finish?

8

FINISH



New mobility convergence

Ride

hailing

MaaS

aggregators

Regulators

Regional variation

Consumer

acceptance

Autonomous vehicle

technology

E-mobilityTraditional

mobility

The “New Mobility Paradigm Shift” Or a need for a “reality-check?”

9

Future

mobilityFINISH



The mobility (r)evolution will take some time to materializeTraditional Wall Street short-term focus on financial expectations needs to adapt

10

2000

$0

2017

$70

billion

2035

$1 Trillion

The value evolution of the new mobility market (revenue in US dollars)

Notes: MaaS could also bring economic benefits to consumers through money saved by not buying a personal car.Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit

New mobility revenue is

expected to grow almost fifteen-

fold due to the availability of so-

call robo-taxi services.

Revenue growth will mainly

originate from China and the

United States.

Initial slow start to new

mobility market; only really

becoming noticeable when

the ride-hailing sector

boomed after 2015.



On an evolutionary trajectory


11

• The US market characteristics of low urban density, high average per capita mileage, and the “built-around-

the-car” infrastructure will slow the pace of adoption and cap the potential long-term market size for new

MaaS services. Eventually, L5-capable private autonomous cars will become a tough competitor for

autonomous MaaS services.

• Cities face a difficult nexus of challenges, compounded by the quick advent of ride hailing. Hence city

policymakers’ decisions will determine the adoption speed of new mobility.

• New mobility technology and consumer awareness/comfort need to further evolve before widespread

adoption will occur in urban environments.

• The sudden “disruption” threat to our established mobility system has receded, turning the outlook more in-

line with our base-case outlook.

While still of huge importance looking forward, the much lauded mobility revolution

appears to be on a evolutionary trajectory.


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Billio

ns

Autonomy (Maas/PAC) Rivalry (Maas/PAC)

Monetizing new mobility - time/content opportunity


Reve

nu

e P

ote

nti

al

Monetizing MaaS – time, data and content services

• New mobility is not just defined by business model

and/or channels; it also is defined by the latent revenue

of time spend in the car; as well as operational cost

savings.

• How could this be monetized, and whom will benefit?

• Operational cost savings for the OEM

• Operational cost savings for the operator/owner

• Revenue gains for operator/content provider

• Revenue gains from data for 3th party

• Overall time/content assumptions include: lower

warranty cost, OTA software savings, cybersecurity

savings, connected car savings, video/non-video

content revenue, remote diagnostics savings, and

driver content revenue (telematics/premium fees/apps)

12

Note: Based on initial IHS Markit assumptions for content/data revenue; operational

savings for operator and OEM

Note: Assumptions exclude any advertising opportunity



Mobility business: Where is the real value opportunity?A conceptual look

• Mobility service business models are not expected to generate much value at the vehicle conception and design stages.

• Specialist research and design service could stand to benefit

• New technology providers could also stand to benefit

• Conceptually it is also expected that hardly any value will be generated during the vehicle manufacturing stage; especially after a dedicated vehicle solution/architecture has been designed.

• Build to print

• Potentially an opportunity for flexible smaller scale specialists utilising 3D printing/additive manufacturing concepts

• Overall the mobility service business model is conceptually expected to generate the highest value at the actual operational service stage

13

R&D

Design

Manufacturing

Mobility

Service

Valu

e A

dded

Lo

wH

igh

Stages of design/manufacture/service


Mobility service value generation potential



Mobility business: What’s critical to business success?A conceptual look

• The mobility service business model is

conceptually critically dependent upon three

factors to optimize profitability

• Energy: The lowest cost energy usage solution to

power the mobility service will be highly desirable

• Maintenance: Low maintenance cost and reduced

downtime will be critical factors

• Depreciation: Longer useful life of the vehicle

allows overall lower vehicle cost

14

Mobility

Service

Maintenance

DepreciationEnergy


Mobility service critical operational factors



The Path to New Mobility


15


Autonomous vehicle growth steadily increasesCautious early introductions expand through both shared mobility fleets

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• 33M in 2040 up from 51,000 in 2021

• First production-line L4 autonomous

vehicles in 2019, all deployed in mobility

fleets

• Mobility services drive early volumes into

fleets in China and the United States

• Ownership remains strong in Europe and

the United States

Global autonomous vehicle sales 2020–40

© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

Note: Autonomous is defined as SAE Level 4 or Level 5


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Mill

ions


The new automotive supply chain and an expanding ecosystem


17

L3 and above


FutureSource: IHS Markit

Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 18


All in

Develop vehicle

Develop autonomous drive system—either internal

or through acquisition

Develop connected car platform

Develop mobility services model and business,

also including partnerships

Examples: GM, Ford

New mobility paths: How will OEMs, tech companies reach

commercialization?

System development for MaaS

Develop autonomous drive system

Develop mobility services model, infrastructure

Develop ability to integrate on any vehicle

Use OEM for vehicle supply

Commercialization of autonomous drive system,

supply to others

Examples: Waymo, Aptiv, potentially Amazon,

Apple

Partnerships

Partnerships for developing autonomous drive

system

Independent commercialization, integration

Example: Honda, BMW-Intel-Mobileye-FCA-Aptiv-

Continental-Magna consortium

Combinations

Some OEMs are well along the way to independent

development, adding select partnerships

Example: Toyota, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen

IHS Markit Customer Care

[email protected]

Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)

Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300

Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600

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ARN July12 2018

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The Path to New Mobility...The information contained in this presentation is confidential. Any unauthorized use, disclosure, reproduction, or dissemination, in full or in part, in