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The owner-occupied dwelling services estimation in Hungary
Technical Workshop on Owner Occupied Housing (OOH)Compilation in the National Accounts
Astana, Kazakhstan3-4 December 2014
Dwelling services
Dwelling services are estimated for the following categories in Hungary:
• actual rent for• local government owned dwellings• private dwellings
• imputed rent for• owner-occupied dwellings• holiday homes• garages
2
First calculations
• Owner-occupied dwelling services: a price-volume grossing approach with a small element of stratification (simplified version of stratification method).
• Public sector rental values were based on administrative sources
(rents paid by tenants)
• No estimation for holiday homes and garages.
3
First calculations
• Owner-occupied dwelling services:• adjusted market rents for three different strata:
• the capital
• other towns
• villages
• Rents based on a simply survey conducted by HCSO in 1993 and 2000, figures were extrapolated with the geometric mean of consumer price index and construction price index
• CFC: stock data were calculated using square meter data and the average construction price, depreciation rate was fix 1.5 per cent
• Intermediate consumption was estimated using the Household Budget Survey
• Net operating surplus was calculated as a residual
• GVA from o-o dwelling services was around 6 per cent of total GVA
4
EU regulation
• COMMISSION REGULATION (EC) No 1722/2005 of 20 October 2005 on the principles for estimating dwelling services for the purpose of Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1287/2003 on the harmonisation of gross national income at market prices
• Article 21. Member States shall apply the stratification method based on
actual rentals in order to compile the output of dwelling services.• Article 3
1. In exceptional and duly justified cases, Member States may apply other objective methods, such as the user-cost method. No justification shall be required for use of the user-cost method in compiling the output of owner-occupied dwellings, provided that both of the following conditions are met:(a) privately rented dwellings must represent less than 10 % of the
dwelling stock; and(b) the disparity between private and other paid rentals must
exceed a factor of three.
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Owner- occupied dwelling services in Hungary
• First have a look at the criteria and the structures of dwellings:
Are the conditions met?
Table 1. The distribution of occupied dwellings (m²) in Hungary by type of occupation in 2002
Table 2. Different types of rents figures, HUF/month/m²
Privately owned,owner-occupied
Privately owned,private rented
Local government owned, rented
Total
Stock(thousand m²)
265 136 7 282 7 649 280 066
% 94.67 2.60 2.73 100.0
Year Private Local government
2002 668 172
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Owner- occupied dwelling services in Hungary
• The tables show that nearly 95 percent of the dwellings were owner occupied, and the disparity between private and other paid rentals almost reached a factor of four, so the conditions were met in 2002.
• Started working on the adaptation of user-cost method in 2000, participating in several projects and Task Forces organised by Eurostat.
• Two main problems: • The dwelling stocks and consumption of fixed capital• Net operating surplus
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Owner- occupied dwelling services in Hungary – net operating surplus at first glance
• Types of different combinations of reference rates
1. Unweighted rates of mortgage loans, unweighted CoPI and CPI
2. Unweighted mortgage rates, weighted CoPI and CPI
3. Weighted enterprise long term loans, weighted CoPI and CPI
4. Unweighted residential loan, unweighted CoPI, CPI
5. Fixed reference rate:R=2.5%
6. Real ROR is obtained from the „old” method
8
Owner- occupied dwelling services in Hungary – net operating surplus at first glance
Share of owner-occupied dwelling services in GDP according to the applied reference rate, 1998
Effect of different RORs on GDP level, 1998
20,1%
13,6%
10,4%
18,4%
6,6% 6,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
22,0%
1 2 3 4 5 6
18,5%
9,7%
5,7%
16,1%
1,4%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
1 2 3 4 5
These graphs are illustrating the reason why we chose the fixed 2.5 per cent real rate of return.
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Owner- occupied dwelling services in Hungary
• Estimation is made using the user cost method for the following categories:
• owner-occupied dwellings• holiday homes• garages
• At first, we made estimation for owner-occupied dwellings only, than the calculation was extended to the holiday homes and garages
10
The building blocks of the user cost method
UC01 Consumption of fixed capital (on owner-occupied dwellings) valued at current prices
UC05 Expenditures on maintenance and repair of owner-occupied dwellings
UC07 Taxes on dwellings and lands
UC08 Net insurance premiums paid by owner occupants
FISIM
UC11 Average value of net stock of owner-occupied dwellings, valued in current prices
UC14 Average value of land associated with owner-occ. dwell. in curr. prices
UC16 Value of net (mortgage) debt on owner-occupied dwellings and associated land
UC18 Net stock of dwellings and land (net of loans) [(UC11+UC14)-UC16 ]
UC18/a Fixed (2.5%) rate for real return
UC19 Imputed real return on owner-occupied dwellings and associated land [UC18*UC18/a]
UC23Imputed rental value of services of owner-occupied dwellings, [estimated thus: UC01 + UC05 +UC08 + UC19]
11
Owner- occupied dwellings:Consumption of fixed capital
• Dwelling stock data was compiled by using the population census of 2001 and data of the dwelling survey of 1999.
• The dwelling stock is split into 28 types by regions, comfort levels, and other characteristics of the dwellings.
• The gross value of the stocks could be constituted from the construction costs and from the physical data (m2) of selected dwelling types. The dwelling stock was categorized by sector and vintage .
• The age group structure and service lives estimation are based on the Population Censuses and the dwelling survey of 1999.
• The service life was estimated taking into account the changes in the number of existing dwellings by age groups.
12
Owner- occupied dwellings:Consumption of fixed capital
• The stock data of the reference year are extrapolated using the investment and discard data, for gross and net value.
• CFC of dwellings is calculated by data of net capital stock. Linear depreciation function is applied on the basis of average remaining service lives.
13
Owner- occupied dwellings:Consumption of fixed capital (UC01)
Private Government TotalNET CAPITAL STOCK of 2003.01.01 at 2002 prices 18 644 454 720 132 19 364 586NET CAPITAL STOCK of 2002.01.01 at 2002 prices 18 416 178 734 406 19 150 584
Investment of 2002 595 501 18 420 613 921
Stock Modifying Items of 2002 17 358 -17 358 0
Consumption of fixed capital of 2002 384 583 15 336 399 919
Table 3. CFC of dwellings, 2002 (million HUF)
Table 4. The value of net stock and CFC of inhabited dwellings, 2002, (million HUF)
Net value of stock CFC
Total dwellings 19 364 586 399 919
Total inhabited dwellings 17 428 127 359 928
Of which: owner-occupied dwellings 16 267 868 335 579
local government owned, rented dwellings 648 119 13 803
privately owned, private rented dwellings 512 140 10 54714
Owner- occupied dwellings:Intermediate consumption
Items of intermediate consumption:
• Expenditure on maintenance and repairs• Net insurance premium• FISIM
15
Owner-occupied dwellings: Intermediate consumption -
expenditure on maintenance and repairs (UC05)
• The estimates on maintenance and repairs are based on Household Budget Survey.
• Expenditure on maintenance and repairs has to be divided into two parts:
• one is the small repairs made by both tenants and owners (to be recorded as final consumption expenditure)
• and the other is minor repairs carried out by owners only, recorded as intermediate consumption for owner-occupied
dwelling services.
• The distinction is made using the HBS data.16
Owner- occupied dwellings:Intermediate consumption –
expenditure on maintenance and repairs (UC05)
• First, the expenditure on maintenance and repairs per rented dwelling is calculated by the quotient of the total amount of maintenance and repairs of rented dwellings and the number of rented dwellings.
• Then, assuming that the maintenance and repairs made by owners per owner-occupied dwelling is the same as those made by the tenants in the case of the rented dwellings, the maintenance and repairs per rented dwelling is multiplied by the number of owner-occupied dwellings.
• This amount is recorded as household final consumption expenditure.
17
Owner- occupied dwellings:Intermediate consumption –
expenditure on maintenance and repairs (UC05)
• Then the maintenance and repairs made by tenants and owners are deducted from the total maintenance and repairs figures,
• which gives the expenditure on maintenance and repairs made by owners and recorded as part of the intermediate consumption of owner-occupied dwellings services.
• There are other services relating to the dwellings, like charges for gardening, stairwell cleaning, heating and lighting, maintenance of lifts and refuse disposal chutes, etc. in multi-occupied dwellings.
• The HBS data used, and it is divided between rented and owner-occupied dwellings according to their share of dwelling stock.
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Owner- occupied dwellings:Intermediate consumption expenditure on maintenance and repairs (UC05)
Table 5. Distribution of the maintenance and repairs of the dwellings
Item 2002
Total expenditure on maintenance and repairs (million HUF) (a) 96 598
Of which: total expenditure on small maintenance and repairs of rented dwellings (million HUF)
(b) 3 535
Number of dwellings (million) (c) 3.7476
Of which: number of rented dwellings (million) (d) 0.2557
Maintenance and repairs per rented dwellings (HUF/dwelling) (e)=b/d 13 828
Number of owner-occupied dwellings (million) (f)=c-d 3.4919
Total expenditure on maintenance and repairs of owner-occupied dwellings (million HUF) = Household final consumption
(g)=e*f 48 285
Total expenditure on maintenance and repairs of owner-occupied dwellings, recorded as intermediate consumption (million HUF)
(h)=a-b-g 44 778
19
Owner- occupied dwellings:Intermediate consumption expenditure on maintenance and repairs (UC05)
Table 6. Distribution of expenditure on other services related to dwellings in 2002
Table 7. Intermediate consumption for maintenance and repairs of the dwellings in 2002 (million HUF)
Item Share of dwellings to the total dwelling stock (in
m²), %
Million HUF
Total other services relating to the dwellings 71 522
of which: owner-occupied dwellings 94.67 67 709
local government owned, rented dwellings 2.73 1 953
privately owned, private rented dwellings 2.60 1 860
Maintenance and repairs
Other services Total IC for
maintenance and repairs
Owner-occupied dwellings 44 778 67 709 112 486
Local government owned, rented dwellings
2 685 1 953 4 638
Privately owned, private rented dwellings 2 556 1 860 4 41520
Owner- occupied dwellings:Intermediate consumption – FISIM
• FISIM (ESA2010 14.01)„… The difference between the reference rate and the rate actually paid
to depositors and charged to borrowers is a financial intermediation service charge indirectly measured (FISIM). The total FISIM is the sum of the two implicit fees paid by borrower and the lender.
• ESA 2010 14.12 par.FISIM attributable to households is broken down into 3 categories:
(a) IC of households in their capacity as owners of dwellings
(b) IC of households in their capacity of unincorporated enterprises and
(c) Final consumption of households
• The estimated value of FISIM was 25 620 million HUF in 2002.
21
Owner- occupied dwellingsIntermediate consumption –
Insurance premiums and claims (UC08)
• The estimation of insurance of dwellings is based on reports of insurance companies
• The output of non-life insurance services is divided among the sectors using the distribution of policies by types of insurance (life and non-life, dwellings or other non-life).
• The insurance on dwellings is divided for owner-occupied dwellings and other dwellings the share of the owner-occupied dwellings to the total dwellings stock in square meter.
• The estimated value of net insurance premiums paid by owner-occupants was 18 188 million HUF in 2002.
22
Net operating surplus (imputed real return, UC19)
For estimation of the imputed real return we need the following data:
• Average value of net stock (UC11)• Average value of land (UC14)• Value of mortgage debt (UC16)• Imputed real rate of return (UC18/a)
23
Average value of net stock (UC11) and average value of land (UC14)
• Average value of net stock (UC11):• The average value of net stock of inhabited owner-
occupied dwelling was 16 267 868 million HUF in 2002, estimated as described earlier
• Average value of land (UC14)• It was estimated by a research institue, as an average
20 per cent of the net stock of dwellings• The estimated value was 3 253 547 million HUF in
2002.
24
Value of mortgage debt (UC16)
• This item covers all types of residential loans taken up under market conditions on owner-occupied dwellings and associated land.
• Data are obtained from commercial banks via the National Bank of Hungary.
• The value of net (mortgage) debt on owner-occupied dwellings and associated land was 605 960 million HUF in 2002.
25
Imputed real rate of return (UC18/a) and imputed real return (UC19)
• The user cost method incorporates acceptable real return on the invested capital; i.e. some return on dwelling and the associated land is estimated.
• This return should be related to the net value of the specific capital, net of any loans.
• After several estimations for finding the best rate of return, a common agreement on the application of a fixed rate, namely 2.5% was accepted.
• This rate was mainly indicated by experimental compilations of countries that apply in their national accounts the stratification method.
26
ResultTable 8. Estimation of owner-occupied dwelling services applying
the user cost method with a fixed (2.5%) real ROR
Item 2002
UC01Consumption of fixed capital (on owner-occupied dwellings) valued at current prices; (million HUF)
335 579
UC05Expenditures on maintenance and repair of owner-occupied dwellings; (million HUF)
112 486
UC08Net insurance premiums paid by owner occupants; estimated by (UC06) - (UC07); (million HUF)
18 188
UC11Average value of net stock of owner-occupied dwellings, valued in current prices; (billion HUF)
16 267.9
UC14Average value of land associated with owner-occ. dwell. in curr. prices; (billion HUF)
3 253.6
UC16Value of net (mortgage) debt on owner-occupied dwellings and associated land; (billion HUF)
606
UC18Net stock of dwellings and land (net of loans) - (UC11+UC14)-UC16 (billion HUF)
18 915.5
UC18/a Fixed (2.5%) rate for real return (%) 2.5
UC19Imputed real return on owner-occupied dwellings and associated land - UC18*UC18/a; (million HUF)
472 887
UC23Imputed rental value of services of owner-occupied dwellings, (estimated thus: UC01 + UC05 +UC08 + UC19); (million HUF)
939 140
FISIM 25 620
Imputed rental value of services of owner-occupied dwellings (UC23+FISIM) 964 760
27
Result
Table 9. Compositon of output on owner-occupied dwelling services
(as it stands at May, 2009, at current prices, million HUF)
Item 2002
Consumption of fixed capital 335 579
Intermediate consumption 156 294
Of which:
Net insurance 18 188
Maintenance and repair 112 486
FISIM 25 620
Net operating surplus 472 887
Output of owner-occupied dwelling services (imputed rent)
964 760
28
Taxes on dwellings and land (UC07)
• Taxes on dwellings and land are taxes paid on the value of the dwelling units themselves and the land on wich they are located. These taxes are often called „property taxes”.
• We do not take into account these taxes while calculating dwelling services until 2014.
• In the frames of methodological standardization, Task Force on GFS decided that member states have to reclassify building tax, development land tax and tax on recreational homes from D.59 Other current taxes (at S.14 Households) into D.29 Other taxes on production. These taxes are levied and collected by local governments. The taxes on dwellings and land are part of these taxes.
• According to this we incorporated the figures into the dwellings calculation. The taxes on dwellings and land was 8 602 million HUF.
29
Holiday homes, garages
• The European System of Accounts states (ESA2010, 3.75) that dwelling services should estimated for holiday homes and garages, too.
• We use the user cost method for the estimation and included in the calculation only 2009.
• It turned out that there were some overlapping in the dwelling stock and maintenance figures, so after eliminating them the output figures changed sligthly only, +21 772 million HUF for 2002.
30
Final estimation for owner-occupied dwelling services
Table 10. Estimation on owner-occupied dwelling services, including FISIM, taxes on dwellings and lands, holiday homes and garages
(as it stands at September, 2014, at current prices, million HUF)
Item 2002
Consumption of fixed capital 344 456
Intermediate consumption 168 664
Of which:
Maintenance and repair and net insurance 124 520
FISIM 44 144
Taxes on dwellings and lands 8 602
Net operating surplus 485 550Output of owner-occupied dwelling services (imputed rent) 1 007 272
31
Owner- occupied dwellings abroad
• The Eurpean System of Accounts states (ESA2010, 3.75) that dwelling services should estimated non-residents owned one, too.
• The rental value of owner-occupied dwellings abroad should not be recorded as domestic production, but import of services and the corresponding net operating surplus as primary income received from rest of the world.
• For owner-occupied dwellings owned by non-residents, analogous entries are made.
• We have no estimation for these item, yet. We think it is quite small. Furthermore, we do not have data, except some information on non-residents owned dwellings in Hungary from the population census.
32
Thank you for your attention!
Zsuzsanna Boros
Hungarian Central Statistical Office
National Accounts Department
Tel: 361-345-6386
Email: [email protected]
