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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Antonella Sopranzetti
Media and Communication Manager
Esso Italiana
Energy Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Energy Saved
~500
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 2040
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 2040
Tale of Two Worlds
Non OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
Biomass
Other Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Coal
Gas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
EU 27 Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity
Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
EU 27 Transportation Demand
Transportation
MBDOE
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet
Million Cars
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EV
CNG/LPG
Rail
Conv. Gasoline
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
15
30
45
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
EU 27 Natural Gas Demand
Total Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
Gas By Sector
BCFD
Oil
Coal
Gas
Other
Electricity
Generation
Industrial
Res/Comm
Transportation
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
1.0%
2040
2010
0.8%
1.7%
-0.1%
2.4% 0.4%
5.8% 1.8%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO)
North America
Europe
~100
Asia Pacific
~150
Latin America Africa
Russia/Caspian
~1,000
Middle East
~650
~200
~1,100
~1,100
Global
~4,300
Source: IEA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Liquids Supply
MBDOE
Supply by Type
Other Liquids
Biofuels
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2040
Resource*
TBO
Remaining
Resource
Cumulative
Production
* Source: IEA ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
World
Remaining Global Gas Resource
Over 200 years coverage at
current demand
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
4.0
North America
2.8
Latin America
1.6
Europe
OECD
3.1
Africa
4.8
Middle East
6.6
Russia/
Caspian*
4.8
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
BCFD
Europe Asia Pacific
BCFD
Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
Conventional
BCFD
North America
Pipeline
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
North America Energy Balance
Oil
Regional Supply
Gas
Quadrillion BTUs
Net Imports
Net Exports
Regional Supply
Net Exports
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
2010 2025 2040
Regional Supply
Total Energy Balance Net Exports
Net Imports
What is unconventional?
Shale fracturing – new application of proven technology
Water and sand with a small amount of chemicals are injected into the shale to create tiny cracks in the rock which allows gas to flow into the well
Illustration not shown to scale
• A time-tested, proven
technology used in more
than two million wells
worldwide since the
1940s1
• Comprehensive reports
have found no historical
cases in which hydraulic
fracturing contaminated
drinking water 2
No documented case of freshwater aquifer contamination from hydraulic fracturing
Sources: (1) SPE, Hydraulic Fracturing History of an Enduring Technology (2010) (2) USDOE and GWPC Study, State Oil and Natural Gas Regulations Designed to Protect Water Resources, (2009)
15
Source: Reprinted with permission from Chevron
Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA
European Unconventional Gas Potential
Tight
Shale
CBM Europe
TCM
Po
ten
tial
Reco
vera
ble
Un
co
nven
tio
na
l R
eso
urc
e
CBM
Tight
Shale
Tight gas production has been produced in Europe for decades
Shale gas still in early exploration phase
Opportunities: Economic Benefits
(1) IHS Global Insight (Dec. 2011), The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the US
(2) The Impact of Shale Gas on the U.S. Economy: CERA; March 2012
(3) Unconventional Gas: Potential Energy Market Impacts in the European Union; JRC 2012
• Shale gas supported
600,000 U.S. jobs in 2010;
900,000 by 20151
• $1.9 trillion investment into
the U.S. economy: 2010 to
20352
• Energy prices $930
lower per household per
year2
JAPAN
EUROPE
U.S.
• Europe currently imports 60% of it gas requirements
• Projected to rise to 80% by 2030 (IEA)
• 2012 JRC Study3 projects that shale gas could reduce imports to 50 to 70%
• At today’s prices, would reduce EU import bill by 20 to 60 billion Euros / year
0
20
40
60
80
100
1800 1900 20001850 1950 2040
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Percent
Global Percent Mix of Fuels
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
Biomass
www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
EU 27 Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand
Thousand Terawatt Hour
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Wind & Solar
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Shale formations and aquifers
21
• Typical European shale formations are greater than 3 km below the aquifer
• Multiple layers of impervious rock separate the shale formation from the aquifer
• Prior to selecting well locations, surface hydrology and subsurface geology are examined in detail
Well bore not to scale
Freshwater aquifer
Shale formation
Depth (metres)
Source: Reprinted with permission from Chevron
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2020 2040
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Billion Tons
By Region
0
5
10
15
20
China India U.S. Europe
Tons per Person Emissions per Capita
‘10
‘25
‘40
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India
China
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy