The Outlook for Australias Residential Construction Industry
Housing Australians The Outlook for Australias Residential
Construction Industry Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive Industry
Policy & Media 20 September 2012
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Population Growth Australia
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NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION - NSW
Slide 4
New housing starts in New South Wales
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NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION - NSW
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POPULATION GROWTH - NSW
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MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL - NSW
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NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION - VICTORIA
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POPULATION GROWTH - VICTORIA
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MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL - VICTORIA
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NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION - QUEENSLAND
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MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL - QUEENSLAND
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POPULATION GROWTH - AUSTRALIA
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Gap between population growth and new stock
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The world is a worry Europe is a basket case, but its finding a
way to muddle through. Confidence, credit, and exposure for East
Asia are the key linkages to Australia. Updates on the US economy
are patchy One recent, large, positive the housing market seems to
be recovering China holding up okayish? China has slowed, and there
are some concerns, but these concerns still look over-played. East
Asia in general is slowing down and the focus is here to stay for a
while.
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The Australian Economy how good are we?
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The good, the bad, and the ugly
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Lets get the ugly out of the way
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The ugly: Housing starts are heading in the wrong direction,
and...
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... its a synchronised downturn and
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renovations are also sliding Renovations investment has fallen
over four consecutive quarters.
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The bad: consumers are unsure and nervous
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The good and bad: easing dwelling prices Do we really need to
scare the living daylights out of people?
Slide 25
Median Dwelling Price 17% Interest rate 6% Interest rate
Unemployment 8.5% Sydney is FULL! and GST commences 4.25% Interest
rate 6.9% unemployment 4% unemployment Baby boomer FHB aged
children Baby boomer investors GFC-induced stimulus Infrastructure
levies surge
Slide 26
The good and bad: falling interest rates Are we at the end of
the line?
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The good: housing affordability is improving
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The good: some indicators are turning
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The good: no shortage of potential
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So what does the future hold?
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Short term housing starts outlook
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The short term outlook for renovations
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So, what now? There remain many short term challenges to
residential construction, both new home building and renovations.
The renovations model is changing and that brings opportunity. So
too does state governments realising things have to change on the
new home building front. People will adjust to the new world for
housing prices and with that will come opportunity as well.
Australias housing backyard needs work and HIA will keep up the
fight. The key challenge is uncertainty around when we will see the
turn.
Slide 36
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive
Industry Policy & Media September 2012
