© C.A.Bishop Consulting Ltd 2005

CONSULTING LTD

The Old BishopThe Old Bishop’’s Almanacs Almanac

Prognostications for the Prognostications for the future of Vacuum Coatingfuture of Vacuum Coating

2005

This is my view of the industryThis is my view of the industry

These may NOT represent the views of AIMCAL

If

you disagree & think I am wrong

shout out & let us know why

Agenda• Barrier – the measurement con

• Indium – ie ITO for Displays

• The overseas threat/opportunity

• Slitting – the myth

• Cleanliness – gap analysis

• Low cost machines

Super Barrier-

the measurement

CON

Barrier – the measurement con

Claims of barrier coatings of 10-6 g/m2/day

BUT calibration stops at 5 x 10-4 g/m2/day

Many coatings have a value taken before they reach steady state conditions – which (surprise, surprise) are worse!

Barrier – the measurement con

Time

truediffusion

performance

Barr

ier

per

form

an

ce

-L

og –

g/s

q m

/da

y

1 dyad more dyads bigger time lag

hours days

Barrier – the measurement con

polymer (sponge)

transparent oxide coatings

oxide/polymer pair = 1 dyadpolymer (sponge)

1st polymer = smoothing layer

substrate

moisture in atmospherediffusing into substrate

moisture that has diffusedvia a tortuous path throughwhole structure of 5 dyads

AnyAnyQuestionsQuestions

ororComments?Comments?

Audience participation

A show of hands please

Who thinks of China as a threat?

Who thinks of China a an opportunity?

I am about to double your worries!

Your options might be better than you think

The overseas threat/opportunity?

• China– Economy + 9.5% growth

– + 15 yrs growth ~<5.0%

– 10-20 yrs 2nd largest

– Business needs part Chinese ownership

– Economy stability ???s

– Hourly rate ~ $0.67

• India– Economy + 8.0% growth

– 10yrs >growth than China

– 10-20 yrs 3rd largest

– Less business constraints greater % investment allowed

– More stable economy

– Hourly rate ~ $0.58

– Educated + English speaking

AnyAnyQuestionsQuestions

ororComments?Comments?

Indium

(revisited)

Indium – ie ITO for Displays?

Nostalgia Nostalgia –– Here is what I said last yearHere is what I said last year

Indium – by product of mining zinc

Zinc price low – falling – mines closing

Indium price increasing

Indium requirement increasing

Indium price will increase further

Indium

• Indium – mined as a by-product of Zinc

• Indium – less than 400 tons mined per year

• Zinc – Mined as primary product

• Zinc – ~ 9 million tons mined each year

• Zinc – price at an all time low

• Zinc – mines being taken out of production• Some on economic grounds &

others because of problems

Indium

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Price $/kg US use Tons World Prodn Tons

IndiumThis is worse than it first appears

Indium – less than 400 tons mined per year

400 Tons of unrefined ore

~ 8 – 8.5 tons of ore = 1 ton refined metal

By 2006 LCD industry will need ~ 64 tons

***** 64 x 8.25 = 528 Tons *****

Indium

Buy now

to

avoid

disappointment

Alternatives?

• e.g. Aluminium doped Zinc Oxide

• Or others (Fluorine doped Tin Oxide)

• If you want to play – start now – (too late?)• (Threat from conducting polymers cf HP LCD’s)

AnyAnyQuestionsQuestions

ororComments?Comments?

Slitting – the myth

Slitting

Who has seen film edges like this?

or

substrate

RaisedHairyJagged

Slitting

with a poorly slit edge as the web is wound up in vacuumthere is no entrapped air to hide the problem & the edgegrows much higher than the rest of the webuntil the raised edge folds over

substrate

Final roll has the shape of a ‘dog-bone’

Slitting

Would it surprise you to know

In a variety of other industries that used mechanical (blades) for cutting they have all eventually progressed to laser cutting

Slitting

• The progression

• Blades

• Blades – harder materials

• Water jets

• Gas/plasma torches

• Lasers

(e.g. see steels & fabrics)

Slitting

• Q. Why do polymer films still get slit by blades?

• Advantages of laser slitting• Cleaner cut – no raised edges

• Cleaner cut – less debris added to web

• No blades to re-sharpen

• Easier resetting to new widths

• A. Dogma – - cost? + don’t have to until somebody else does – - - - no customer pressure

AnyAnyQuestionsQuestions

ororComments?Comments?

Cleanliness-

Gap analysis

substrate

ITO ~~ 200nm

Light Emitting Polymer (LEP) - 50nm

Polymer transport layer - 50nm

Top metal electrode

Light output

Total coating thickness <0.5 microns~ same dimension as residual debris after cleaning

0.3microns

dia

Organic light emitting display (OLED)

barriercoating

Leak throughpinhole

Both sides barrier coated. Pinholesare rarely in line & hence one layer or the other provides the barrier.

Barrier performance

Pinholes

substrate

metallization

debris

Pinhole

Debris typically >0.5 microns

metallized layer 20 – 100nm

Debris diameter in microns

Numberofdefects

Particle count

82100Polycarbonate (cast)

400 – 50023Melinex co-ex ‘B’

Not the worst tested2500 - 300023ANO

40023Mylar D

Average 1-2microns125 - 15023Melinex co-ex ‘A’

45 – 30075Melinex ‘O’ knurled

Both sides same3575Upilex

550 – 65075Mylar D

65075SKC

CommentsDefect Count

Average of 6 fields

ThicknessFilm Type

NB After slitting the defect count was, on average, 2x greater

Surface defects

cooled deposition drum cooled deposition drum

thermal expansion substrate

thermal load thermal load

As the heat load is applied the substrate wants to expand but is constrained by the friction between the substrate and cooled deposition drum

Now there is some debris preventing the web laying flat on the surface of the drum. There is then, locally, less cooling & the web wants to expand. As it is already off the surface this is easy to achieve & the wrinkle starts.

Effect of debris

Debris

Keep the drum & substrate clean

polymer webextruder

castingdrum

forwarddraw

sidewaysdraw ovens

edgetrim

rewindrolls

Areas where dust/debris can be generated or come in contact with web on a polymer web production process.

Cleanliness – Gap analysisClean

Dirty

Stateof

filmmakingsystem

Day 1 Time

accumulation of debris

in & around machine

customer requirements

AnyAnyQuestionsQuestions

ororComments?Comments?

Low cost vacuum systemsLow cost vacuum systems

Where do we start?

Lets start with a chamber

Low cost vacuum systems

The chamber

What material?

Mild steel – stainless steel - ???

Q. Why not plastic?• Engineering plastics – lightweight – easily machined

• Cylinder shape & compression loads

• Finite Element Analysis – check designs - safety

Q. Benefits from more radical thinking?

Drives

Chamber using thick-walledpolymer pipe

~ 600mm dia for 300mm roll width

Inner rigid frame for accurate winding system

pumps

AnyAnyQuestionsQuestions

ororComments?Comments?

where are we now? where are we now?

Flexible OLEDsFlexible OLEDs--

NanotechnologyNanotechnology

Gartner hype cyclefor emerging technologies

Technology Peak of Trough of Slope of Plateau of Trigger Inflated Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity

Expectations

Visibility

Maturity

ObsolescenceObsolescence

ObsolescenceHow many of you have machines over 10yrs old?

When you buy a new machine do you –

want the newest technology?

want computer control?

expect it to still be working in 10yrs?

Have you considered -- if anything goes wrong you may not be able to get things repaired because of obsolescence of components?

Warning

Many long term systems now have a problem with electrical components becoming obsolescent.

The speed of development & change now means that in 10yrs several generations of ‘improvements’ may have occurred & the new versions will no longer work in outdated systems.

© C.A.Bishop Consulting Ltd 2005

Good luck Good luck

&&

See you next yearSee you next year

CONSULTING LTD

Thank you.Thank you.

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