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The New Middle AgesAuthor(s): Martin van CreveldReviewed work(s):Source: Foreign Policy, No. 119 (Summer, 2000), pp. 38-40Published by: Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLCStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1149518 .

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THENEW MIDDLEAGESMARTINANCREVELDO u r s isanage nwhich evolutionsavebeenmade asy, heap, ndplentiful.or earsnend,notaday eemedopasswithoutomeearth-shakingpheavalurstingnus: heKeynesianevolution,the MissileRevolution,heCyberneticevolution,he GeneticScienceRevolution,he SexualRevolution,heFeminist evolutionwhich on-tinued heSexualRevolutionnsomeways, utreactedgainstt inoth-ers), he RevolutionnMilitary ffairs,heTechnotronicevolution,heMonetaryevolution.... t isenougho make ne's ead evolve.Meanwhile,he onerevolution hatreallymatters asbeen allbutforgotten.Unlikemostothers, t canbepinneddownto thedayandthe hour: hemorning fAugust6, 1945.Out of a beautiful lueskythereappeared singleheavybomber. lyingoverHiroshima, cityhitherto almostuntouchedby the war,it opened its bombbay,droppeda single bomb,and turnedaway.Minutes later the skyburned, he Earth hook,anda columnof smokerose sevenmilesintothestratosphere.s thecityallbutdisappearednd75,000peo-ple laydeadordying,historyperformedU-turn.Fora thousand earsbefore1945,the storyof mankindhad beenone of politicalconsolidation.Tobe sure,empires oseandreceded,werecreatedandfell to pieces.But however wisty he road, n thelongrun t alwaysedtowardarger ndmorepowerfulnits.By1914,virtuallyhe entireEarthwasdominated yjustsevenofthem,sixofthemestablishedywhitemenand ivecentered nEurope.Needlessto say, heypromptlyelltofighting achotheronanunequaledcaleandwith an unequalederocity.Bythe timetheirstruggle nded30yearsater,80 to 100millionpeoplehadbeenkilled.In 1945,therewerebut twosuperpowerseft.Byallpreviousxpe-rience rom hetimeofThucydidesn, theyought ohaveclashedna mightywarorseriesofwars.Buttheydid not.War,whichupuntilthenhadservedasthe maininstrumentf consolidation,wassweptunder hecarpet, o to speak.The morenuclearweapons roliferated,MARTIN VAN CREVELD is professor f historyat HebrewUniversity,Jerusalem,ndauthor fThe RiseandDeclineof the State(Cambridge:ambridgeUniversityress,1999).38 FOREIGN POLICY

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the greaterhe dangerhatvictorymight eadnot to survival uttoannihilation.As a result,war could only be wagedbetween,oragainst,hird-andfourth-ratemilitary owers.A process fpoliticaldisintegrationet in, first in severalof the former mpires,hen innumerous thercountries-including neof the twosuperpowers.ythe year2000 the number f stateshad more hantrebled.From ndonesiao Scotland, ndfrom he former ovietUniontosouthernAfrica, heprocessmostcharacteristicfourageispoliticalsplintering,decentralization,ven disintegration.Hardlya monthgoesbywithout omenewstateappearingn the map.Andpoliticaltransformationxtends arbeyondgovernment. ach imeanewuseracquires TV dishor linksupto the Internet,he natureofpoliticsundergoessubtle hange.Each imeanew nternationalrganizationarises,more tates indthemselvesaught n its coils.Thesplinteringprocesshas led to vast increasesn the powerof organizationstherthan states,such as multinational orporations, ongovernmentalorganizations,ndthemedia.Witheachpassing ay hesegroups rea littlemore ndependentfgovernment.Witheachpassing ay, heinfluence heyexercisen worldaffairs rows.Already ow, heprocesss fast akingusback o theMiddleAges.Theplaceof theemperor asbeen takenbythe U.S. president,hatof the popebythe secretary eneralof the UnitedNations.Unlikethe popehe isanofficialelected, f onlyindirectly,ythepeople; othisextent the dictumvoxpopuli, oxdeihasliterally ome true.Asin the MiddleAges,president ndsecretarylashovermoney.As intheMiddleAges,thepresidentwields hemilitary owerand hesec-retary eeksto holdswayoverpublicopinion.Perhapsmostimpor-tant, the secretary eems to be gainingat the expense of thepresident-to wagewar n Kosovo,Somalia,andKuwait, he latterultimately eeded hepermissionf the former.Usinghistoryasourcrystalball,someof the mainfeatures f theNew MiddleAges maybe predictedwithreasonablelarity.Therewillbe continuedpoliticaldecentralizationccompanied ymassivepopulationmovements romone politicalunit to the next. Thesepoliticalunitswillvarywidely,rom overeigntates o internationalorganizations hat arenot sovereign,and fromthose with largeterri-tories to those that have verylittle territoryornone at all. Operatingwithin a veryloose framework f international aw,from time to timethey will go to waragainsteach other.Butcomparedwith the titanic

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struggles f the years1914-45, hesewarswill tendto be smalland,exceptto thosedirectlynvolved,harmless.Assisted ythejumbo etand he"CNNffect,"hepeoplewhomakeupthoseorganizationsillbecomemore like n someways-usingEng-lishastheiringuaranca, earingWesternress,ating amburgers,ndwatching tevenSpielbergilms. n otherrespects,owever,eligious,cultural,ndsocialdifferencesetween hemwillpersist.As cheapandreadilyvailableechnologynableshe mostnonconformistndradicalgroupsospreadheirownmessagesynewsletter,V,and heInternet,theymayeven ncrease;heendofhistorys notyetat hand.To besure, hefuture oldsmanydangers. till,compared iththerecenthorrors f HiroshimandAuschwitz,t is not an unpleasantprospect. fterall,isn't hebest hingonecansayabout nyEuropeancitythat tscoreremainsompletelymedieval?

AN AGE OF CITIZENSHIPFERNANDOHENRIQUEARDOSOt is difficult for a generation to be fully awareof the historicalexperiencen which t isplaying role.TheGerman hilosopherGeorgHegelencapsulatedhisproblemn ametaphor:heowl ofMinerva-which symbolizesnowledge-firsttakes lightwith twi-lightclosing n. Thatis, the intellectual ffort hatproduces nder-standing f aneradoesnot bear ruituntilthat eranears ts end.Around heworld,we havewitnessed strengtheningf democraticideals ver helast ewdecades,speciallyince heendof theColdWar.However,emocracyseverywherenopen-endedrocess,venin thosecountries heretwas stablishedongago.Threatsfpraetorianoups, ig-

otry, ndallkinds fintoleranceillcontinueo exist neveryountry.hiswillrequirebolsteringfinternationalemocraticolidaritymongtates.Moreover,n the internationalrena,challenges rearising hatthreaten heexercise fdemocratic,lobal itizenship.We havemanagedo createboldermechanismsor internationalcooperationnareas uchashuman ights,heenvironment,ndsocialissues.Nevertheless,t theeconomic evelahugediscrepancyeems oFERNANDO HENRIQUE CARDOSO, sociologist,spresidentf theFederativeRepublicfBrazil.40 FOREIGN POLICY