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October 26 th 2017 The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation

The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

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Page 1: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

October 26th 2017

The Navigator Company

9M 2017

Results Presentation

Page 2: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Diogo da Silveira – CEO

Fernando Araújo – CFO

António Redondo

Nuno Santos

João Paulo Oliveira

Joana Appleton – IR

Participation

1

Page 3: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

• Main highlights

• Key figures

• Group performance

• Market outlook

• Update on new projects

• Subsequent events

9M 2017 Results presentation

2

Page 4: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

3

Significant turnover growth and diversification over the last years

9M 2017 – Key Highlights

3

P&P Market YTD 2017

• Strong momentum for pulp, with prices jumping to all time highs

• Improvement in UWF demand and gradual price recovery, but average price remains lower YoY

Volumes • Record sales of UWF: 1 158 Ktons (+0.2%) • BEKP sales totalled 251 Ktons (+25%) • Tissue: strong improvement (+11%) • Energy: +16% in volume sold

Cost reduction • Efforts continue with total YTD estimated impact at € 18 Million

Financial costs and FX operations

• Financial costs reduced by 61% YoY • Hedging operations with positive results

offsetting negative impact of FX evolution

Free Cash Flow • Strong free cash flow generation in Q3

Outlook • Positive momentum for prices should continue

Page 5: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

16 37 63

79 129 189

102 0 0

106 130 156

150 187 66

171 184 222

255 140

0

27 53 80

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1.100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour

A4 – B Copy

BHKP

Index FOEX PIX (Europe ) EUR

Max /Min (€/ton):

1.046 /766 = 1,36

Max/Min (€/ton):

810 / 352 = 2,30

A4 – B Copy: index for uncotaed woodfree paper (80 g/m2)

BHKP – index for bleached harwood kraft pulp (eucalyptus or birch)

4

Page 6: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

EBITDA - Negative impact of paper price offset by cost reduction and volumes

(Mais info nos anexos)

The negative impact of paper price YoY was reduced by higher volumes and cost reductions

• Costs: include reduction in wood costs , packaging and chemicals • Non recurring items include insurance indemnities deducted from start-up costs for

pellets business, Mozambique and biological assets

5

12.6

Volume

-11.1

Costs

300.1

Non Rec. & Other

6.6

Prices EBITDA 9M 2017

-1.4

301.5

-9.5

EBITDA 9M 2916

Page 7: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

16 37 63

79 129 189

102 0 0

106 130 156

150 187 66

171 184 222

255 140

0

27 53 80

6

Paper performance in 9M 2017

• Sales of 1158 thousand tons of UWF – best first 9 Months registered

• Although Navigator lead 4 price increases in Europe and International markets in 2017, average sales price decreased 1.9% YoY; from December 2016 until September 2017 prices have been improving

• Prices have been impacted by the repositioning which occurred in October 2016, Fx impact (GBP and USD) and market mix

• Recovery in product mix: premium products share up to 49% (+1.6 pp. YoY); mill brands up to 61% (best mill brand share in Q3 2017 /63.2% ) in the last 5 years

• High load on mills: 43 days in September

Page 8: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

NVG registered record sales volume to diversified geographies

1 158 K ton

YTD Sep Sales 727 Kt Europe 63%

89 Kt USA 8%

Source: The Navigator Company

149 Kt Africa 13%

143 Kt Middle East

12%

44 Kt Latin

America 4%

6 Kt Asia /

Oceania 0.5%

7

Page 9: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

16 37 63

79 129 189

102 0 0

106 130 156

150 187 66

171 184 222

255 140

0

27 53 80

8

Navigator Pulp Performance – 9M2017

• Pulp sales increased 25% in volume to 252 thousand tons (record volume sold since 2009)

• Navigator´s average price increased 6% YoY, but gained 22% from December 2016 to September 2017

• 11% Growth YoY in Décor and Special papers segments, high contribution segments (representing 69% of European Sales)

• Increase sales to overseas markets: +43 thousand tons (YoY)

• End of September inventories at very low level (9 days) when compared to year end 2016 and well below industry´s average (36 days at the end of August)

Page 10: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

16 37 63

79 129 189

102 0 0

106 130 156

150 187 66

171 184 222

255 140

0

27 53 80

9

Tissue performance YTD 2017

• Volume of tissue sold increases 11% YoY sustained by the 2015 capacity increase

• Sales increased 11% to € 55 million (vs €50 million)

• Average sales price in 9M2017 slightly higher YoY due to improvement in product mix

AFH 52%

AH 27%

C&C 12%

Reels 9%

Tissue Sales by segment

Portugal 64%

Spain 34%

Other 2%

Tissue Sales by market

Page 11: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

M2 program continues

10

• M2 cost reduction and efficiency programme continues with estimated impact on EBITDA in 9M 2017 of € 18 million

• Of a total of 92 projects with successful initiatives, the following stand-out:

+ Wood logistics: € 3.1 million

+ Energy purchases: € 2.6 million

+ Packaging purchases: € 2.3 million

+ Pulp and paper logistics: € 1.1 million

• Company on track to achieve ambitious target of M2 impact to EBITDA in 2017 of € 20 millions

Page 12: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

11

Good operating performance but limited free cash flow

With operating cash flow in line with 9M2016, free cash flow gained € 48 million YoY, positively impacted by lower capex (-€ 25 million) and evolution of working capital (mainly reduction in inventories)

Cash Flow

CAPEX Change in inventories

Suppliers & Other *

Free Cash Flow

260

76 15

54

149

Valu

es i

n m

illio

n E

uro

s

33

Free Cash Flow at € 149 mln

Change in accounts

receivables

* Other includes accounts payable, taxes, antidumping and insurance

Page 13: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

€ -16.6

mln

€-6.5 mln

9M2016 9M2017

12

New credit facilities and extension of maturity reduce cost of debt

9M 2017 - Financial results

Significant reduction in borrowing costs

- Financial results improved from -€ 16.6 to -€ 6.5 million

- Financial costs in 2016 were negatively impacted by € 6 million due to the premium paid for the high yield call

- Interest paid were down € 4.2 million YoY

- FX effects resulting from hedging operations improved € 3.2 million

- Group contracted plain vanilla derivatives in a total amount of USD 350 million to cover 100% of net budget exposure estimated for 2017

Page 14: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

• € 21 million for pulp, paper and others; includes recurrent capex of € 6.8 million

• € 34 million for Figueira da Foz pulp capacity project

• € 17 million for Cacia tissue mill

• € 2 million in new converting lines at V.V. Rodão

• € 2 million for others, including Mozambique and Pellets

Capex of € 76 million (vs.€ 101 million)

13

Page 15: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

16 37 63

79 129 189

102 0 0

106 130 156

150 187 66

171 184 222

255 140

0

27 53 80

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 7 17 27 37 47 4 14 24 34 44 2 12 22 32 42 52

Eur

/ T

on

US

D / T

on

Week

BHKP (USD/Ton) BHKP (Eur/Ton)

14

Pulp prices have jumped since the beginning of 2017

YTD BHKP in USD: +35% and BHKP in Euros: + 22%

YoY average BHKP in Euros and USD for 9M2017: +11%

BHKP USD

BHKP EUR

PIX Europe

Prices: Week 1/ Week 39

+138 EUR/t (+22%)

+245 USD/t (+35%)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 16: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

16 37 63

79 129 189

102 0 0

106 130 156

150 187 66

171 184 222

255 140

0

27 53 80

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 6 16 26 36 46 4 14 24 34 44

European Market Price Evolution

Source: FOEX

And although Navigator has led 4 prices increases, paper prices haven´t fully recovered

829 €/ton

810 €/ton Av. YTw39

Av. YTw 39

2014 2016 2015 2017

Week

Paper Benchmark has been gradually improving but the average price for the paper benchmark is still down 2.3% YoY

Last Pix Week 39: 827 €/ton

15

Page 17: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Source:; PPPC; The Navigator Company –

Global UWF Demand increased 0.9% YoY

16

Among graphic papers, only UWF registered an increase in demand of 0.9% YoY

-1,9%

0,9%

-1,0%

-3,4%

Uncoated

Mechanical

Uncoated

Woodfree

Coated Woodfree Coated

Mechanical

World Printing &Writing Demand Growth by Grade

(8 months 2017 vs. 2016)

Page 18: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

16 37 63

79 129 189

102 0 0

106 130 156

150 187 66

171 184 222

255 140

0

27 53 80

17

Paper Market in Europe and US

Sales to other markets include Africa, Latin America, Middle East, Turkey, Asia, mainly in USD

• UWF consumption registered a slight decrease of 0.3% YoY, with cut size and folio performing better than reels

• Although imports decreased 3.4% YoY, producers from Canada and Russia

have been increasing their presence in Europe since the beginning of the year, mainly driven by price improvement, scarcity of paper and USD devaluation

Europe

• UWF consumption decreased 6.2% YoY, with imports decreasing around 12% YoY; conversely, exports from the US expanded 9% YoY, mainly to Africa, Middle East and Asia

• Global increase in UWF price announced in the USA effective October

• Capacity closures announced for Q4 2017 and 2018 (~-424 Ktons)

US

Page 19: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

EUR/t Price Evolution in Europe

Source FOEX

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016YTD

2017*

BHKP EUR 538 484 447 419 471 509 514 534 403 641 579 586 596 561 707 627 703

Copy B EUR 1002 978 910 824 786 802 840 851 803 816 870 863 846 827 822 824 810

Gap 465 493 463 405 314 292 326 317 399 175 291 276 250 266 115 197 107

+107 €/ton

And the price gap between paper and pulp is at a minimum level

18

+399 €/ton

+465 €/ton

Page 20: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Outlook for 2016

Pulp: strong performance continues, with significant reduction in market pulp due to maintenance/ strategic stoppages; however:

+ Current pace of demand growth difficult to sustain

+ Spread between short and long fibre at all-time lows

Tissue: high competition and pressure on margins due to rise in pulp price and NVG announced price increase in tissue starting October

Paper: gradual improvement in paper conditions and current comfortable

order book: Navigator has just announced another increase in

UWF price for January 2018

Positive market outlook

19

− The Group has decided to adapt the production of one of its paper machines in Setubal, to include the production of some heavyweight paper (>120 gr); this will have a positive impact on margins and will reinforce the supply to its clients, through higher quality standards and optimized commercial and logistics conditions

Page 21: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives

Operations improve at Colombo Energy

20

• During Q3 Group successfully solved production problems and operating stability was achieved ;

• Ebitda for pellets still negative but with an improvement trend

• Current quality of pellets produced is very good

Page 22: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives

Mozambique project - Reminder

• Scale down rhythm of investment and operations

• Company remains engaged and is negotiating necessary conditions to proceed with the project

• Plans to build the Moatize-Macuse railway line and the port of Macuse, due for completion in 2021-22 increase attractiveness of the project

21

Page 23: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives

Update on New Projects - Cacia Tissue

• Integrated tissue mill with capacity to produce 70 thousand tons of reels and converting products with estimated capex of 120 million (78% of project commissioned)

• Main equipment suppliers have been selected and site preparation work occurring, with 160 workers currently involved

• 80% of capex already committed

• Project on time and on budget: paper machine to start up in Q3 2018

22

Page 24: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives

Update on New Projects – Pulp F.Foz

• Target to increase production efficiency and pulp capacity at Figueira da Foz, by 70 thousand tons

• Capex of €85 million includes important environmental investments in reduction of odor, waste, air and liquid emissions and also investments in innovative manufacturing processes, improving equipment efficiency and product differentiation.

• Recent progress:

+ 83% of capex already commissioned

+ Civil construction started

+ Main equipment to be fitted in August /September

• Project on time and on budget: new capacity planned to

come online in March 2018.

23

Page 25: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Outlook for 2016

• October fires:

• Total area burned in Portugal increased to 520

thousand hectares

• Approximately 6100 hectares related to the

Group

• Financial impact is still being assessed

• Difficult to estimate the consequences of these

fires for wood supplies in future years, but at

this time no risks are anticipated to the supply

of wood to the Group's industrial units.

Subsequent Events

24

Page 26: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Fire impact by species

In Portugal,

the burnt areas evolution by occupation was as follows:

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000-2015 2016 2017

23,2%

48,9%

15,4%

18,6%

49,0%

8,6%

19,2%

40,5%

22,6%

12,5% 23,8% 17,7%

Other Bush Pine Eucalyptus

25

Page 27: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )

Disclaimer

26

This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of The Navigator Company S.A.’s business and does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding The Navigator Company S.A.. Accordingly, no representation, undertaking or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by The Navigator Company S.A. or any of its subsidiaries’ undertakings, affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisors or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied or any other material discussion in connection with this presentation. This presentation has been prepared by The Navigator Company S.A. for information purposes only. The Navigator Company S.A. or any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person shall not have any liability whatsoever (including in case of omission, negligence or otherwise) for any losses, errors or omissions howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith or with respect to their reliance upon the completeness and accuracy of any such information, as well as any damages resulting hereof.

Page 28: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation · 2018. 3. 9. · • Market outlook ... Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 – B Copy BHKP Index FOEX PIX (Europe )