THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN ESTIMATING THE IMMEDIATE CASUALTIES FROM NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

Clayton S. White

Issuance Date: July 1971

N O T I C E This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. Neither the United States nor the United States Atomic Energy Commission, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.

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Price: Paper Copy $3.00 Microfiche $0.95.

.. -

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This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency Thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.

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AEC Category UC-41 CEX-71.1

THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN ESTIMATING THE IMMEDIATE CASUALTIES FROM NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

BY Clayton S. White

-

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. Neither the United States nor the United States Atomic Energy Commission, nor any of theu employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, com- pleteness or usefulness of any information, apparatus,

Approved for publication by: L. J. DEAL Chief, Civil Effects Branch Division of Biology and Medicine U. S. Atomic Energy Commission

Lovelace Foundation fo r Medical Education and Research Albuquerque, New Mexico

March 1971

This report is published in the merest of providing information which may prove of value to the reader in his study of effects data derived principally f rom nuclear weapons tests and from experiments deslgned to duplicate various characteristtcs of nuclear weapons.

This document IS based On lnformatlon available at the time of preparation which may have subsequently been expanded and re-evaluated. Also. In the preparation of this report for publication. someclassifled rnatercal may have been removed. Users are cautloned to avoid interpretations ard conclusions based o n unknown or incomplete data

PREFACE

This r epor t , an updated v e r s i o n of a pape r a s sembled f r o m

avai lable published nuc lea r e f fec ts da ta , w a s ini t ia l ly p r e p a r e d as

a contr ibut ion t o the Albuquerque Conference on D i s a s t e r Medica l

C a r e a t the invitation of the sponsor ing agencies ; namely, the A m e r i -

c a n Medica l Assoc ia t ion Commit tee on D i s a s t e r Medica l C a r e /Counci l

on Nat ional Secur i ty in cooperat ion with the New Mexico Medica l

Society.

of the Divis ion of Biology and Medicine of the U. S. Atomic E n e r g y

Commiss ion , the e n t i r e text, br ie f ly and se lec t ive ly s u m m a r i z e d be-

f o r e a t tendees on the f irst day of the conference held at the Sheraton-

W e s t e r n Skies Motor Hotel , Albuquerque, New Mexico, November 15-16,

1968, w a s reproduced a s Lovelace Foundation Document LF-1242-1

and m a d e avai lable on r eques t t o those technical ly in t e re s t ed in nuc lea r

effects. Since no f u r t h e r copies a r e avai lable , the m a n u s c r i p t w a s r e -

v i sed as a p r o g r e s s r e p o r t on AEC Con t rac t AT(29-2)-1013, so tha t

the da ta the re in could be presented on Ju ly 1, 1970, before par t ic ipants

and facul ty a t the 1970 OCD S u m m e r Inst i tute sponsored by the Office of

Civi l Defense and the Amer ican Society f o r Engineer ing Educat ion held

at the U. S. A i r F o r c e Academy, June 29-July 24, 1970, n e a r Colorado

Spr ings , Colorado.

As a cour t e sy and with the suppor t of the Civi l Ef fec ts Branch

ABSTRACT

It w a s pointed out tha t cons ide rab le p r o g r e s s h a s been m a d e i n

a s sembl ing range -yield-effects da t a f o r nuc lear detonat ions appl icable

t o a v a r i e t y of b u r s t conditions and tha t tentat ive though incomple te

b iomed ica l c r i t e r i a have been formula ted for a s s e s s i n g the h a z a r d s

of exposure t o b l a s t a s we l l as ionizing and t h e r m a l radiat ions.

so, it w a s noted tha t g r e a t c a r e m u s t be taken i f meaningful concepts

a re to come f r o m a combined u s e of the phys ica l and b iomed ica l data .

Even

In e m p h a s i s of t h i s fact , the physical ly and biological ly or ien ted

p r o b l e m areas w e r e presented and d i scussed . Also , su rv iva l da t a

fo r the Hi rosh ima explosion w e r e used t o show tha t the condi t ions of

exposure m o r e than any o ther f a c t o r s de t e rmined immedia t e su rv iva l

and m o r e than anything e l s e w a s respons ib le fo r keeping the casua l ty

f igu res as low a s they w e r e .

A m a j o r d e t e r r e n t in applying the expe r i ence in Japan t o a m o r e

gene ra l i zed s i tuat ion is the l ack of in format ion about the d i f f e rences

between "free -field" p a r a m e t e r s and the envi ronmenta l va r i a t ions tha t

w i l l ac tua l ly occur at the loca t ions of people immedia te ly following the

bu r s t . The re levant p rob lems a r e complex and difficult and t h e r e h a s

b e e n ne i the r widespread apprec ia t ion of the need t o "move out of the

streets and into exposure loca t ions" no r with one except ion much prog-

ress in t r ans l a t ing "free-f ie ld d o s e " t o t t exposure dose" at locat ions

of i n t e re s t .

coopera t ive ly by pe r sonne l f r o m Oak Ridge Nat ional Labora to ry and

the Atomic Bomb Casual ty Commiss ion .

The except ion i s the Ichiban I P r o g r a m being c a r r i e d out

A second difficulty in genera l iz ing a c r o s s the range-yield s p e c t r u m

of e f f ec t s is the fac t tha t , a l l o the r things being the s a m e , the r a t io s of

the m a j o r e f fec ts p a r a m e t e r s t o one another change with yield; v i z . , t h e

range -yield-effects c u r v e s fo r t h e r m a l and ionizing rad ia t ion and fo r

b l a s t a r e not pa ra l l e l with one another .

5

Even so, tentat ive b iomedica l c r i t e r i a c a n be combined wi th r ange -

e f fec ts da ta f o r different yields and b u r s t conditions to define the r anges

inside which and the a r e a s o v e r which specif ied poten t ia l h a z a r d s ex is t .

Also, given a completely f la t t e r r a i n , the absence of s t r u c t u r e s and a l l

people exposed in the open, ca sua l ty e s t i m a t e s fo r such "free-f ie ld"

exposure conditions migh t pe rhaps be c red ib le . In the p r e s e n c e of t e r -

r a i n va r i a t ions and the many types of buildings in c i t i e s and u r b a n com-

plexes, the r e can be no sa t i s f ac to ry predic t ions until posi t ional , geomet r i c

and or ien ta t iona l f ac to r s along with o t h e r s defining the conditions of e x -

posu re have been recognized and a s s e s s e d .

does not include th i s sophis t icat ion and any but the g r o s s e s t e s t ima t ion of

nuc lea r casua l t i e s is hard ly poss ib le today.

The s t a t e of the a r t c u r r e n t l y

6

ACKNOW LEDGMEIVTS

The w r i t e r w i shes to acknowledge specif ical ly the following: the

t ime ly and understanding act ion of M r . L. Joe Deal, Chief, Civi l

E f f e c t s Branch , Division of Biology and Medicine, U. S. Atomic

E n e r g y Commiss ion , who a r r a n g e d f o r the reproduct ion of the e a r l i e r

v e r s i o n of th i s pape r under AEC Con t rac t AT(29-1)-1242 and who en-

couraged and a r r a n g e d suppor t f o r i t s rev is ion under AEC Con t rac t

AT(29-2)-1013; the pe r suas ive ta len t of Dr . A. H. Schwichtenberg,

member of the Amer ican Medical Associat ion Commit tee on D i s a s t e r

Med ica l C a r e , who s t imula ted another a t tempt to fu r the r communi-

ca t ions between the l abora to ry and the potent ia l u s e r s of nuc lea r -

r e l a t ed da ta a s they b e a r upon envi ronmenta l medic ine and on heal th

and sa fe ty in civil ian, i ndus t r i a l and mi l i t a ry populations; the p e r -

cep t ive dec is ion of P r o f e s s o r Lowell B. Jackson , D i rec to r , The 1970

Nuc lea r Defense Design S u m m e r Inst i tute , to include immedia t e nu-

c l e a r e f fec ts information in the p r o g r a m , a c o u r s e tha t can only f u r -

the r the comple te understanding of m o d e r n explos ives and promulga te

data appl icable to a va r i e ty of n a t u r a l d i sa s t e r s ; the expe r t a n d knowl-

edgeable cooperat ion of the la te M r . I. Gerald Bowen, f o r m e r l y Head,

P h y s i c s Depar tment , Lovelace Foundation, whose competent he lp made

poss ib le inclusion of range-y ie ld-ef fec ts information fo r v a r i o u s ex-

plosive y ie lds including those cons is ten t with b e s t avai lable e s t i m a t e s

f o r the yield of the Japanese explos ions ; the he lp of D r . Rober t K. Jones ,

Dr . Donald R. Richmond and D r . E. Royce F l e t c h e r i n rev is ing tabular

da t a t o include the m o s t r e c e n t expe r imen ta l r e s u l t s ava i lab le ; aid with

i l l u s t r a t ive m a t e r i a l provided by Mr . Rober t A. Smith, M r s . Adele K.

Sphar , M r . Mar t in J. Schor t je , M r . J o e E. F o s t e r and M r . Dale Calver t ;

and the effective e f for t s of M r s . Ruth P. Lloyd, M r s . Mar tha E. Mitchel l

and M r s . K. Maureen C i lmore , a l l of whom with iMiss Mi ldred E. Blake

and M r . F r e d C. Rupprecht contr ibuted ed i tor ia l ly and who, a s s i s t e d by

M r s . C a r o l M. Riemen, p rocessed the p re l imina ry and f ina l manusc r ip t s .

~

- --

7

More general ly , grat i tude is e x p r e s s e d t o the Division of Biology

and Medicine of the Atomic E n e r g y Commiss ion and the Defense Atomic

Support Agency of the Depar tmen t of Defense f o r providing suppor t

making poss ib le a continuous invest igat ive p r o g r a m in nuc lear effects

at the Lovelace Foundation f o r a l m o s t 2 0 y e a r s ; and t o m a n y m e m b e r s

of the Lovelace staff f o r the u s e of t h e i r da ta , generously m a d e avail-

ab le f o r this and many o the r publications.

CONTENTS

PREFACE . . 4

ABSTRACT . . 5

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . 7

. 11 1 INTRODUCTION . 2 “FREE-FIELD” VERSUS “NON-FREE-FIELD” EFFECTS . . 12

2.1 General . . 12 2.2 Nevada Test Site . . 1 3 2.3 Japan . . 17 2.4 Implications . . 20

3 TENTATIVE BIOMEDICAL CRITERIA AND THEIR APPLICATION . . 21

3.1 General . . 21 3.2 Application of Tentative Biomedical Cr i te r ia . . 21 3 . 3 The Effects-Range Cascade . . 25

4 THEPROBLEMAREAS . . 28

4.1 General . . 28

4.3 Synthesis . . 32

THE ICHIBAN PROGRAM, REVISED COMPARATNE EFFECTS CHARTS FOR HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI AND THEIR RELATION TO BIOMEDICAL CRITERIA .

4.2 The Problem Areas . 29

5

. 32 5.1 The Ichiban P rogram . 32 5.2 Revised Comparative Effects Char t s for Hiroshima and Nagasaki . 33

. 34

. 39

. 42

. 44

5.3 Tentative Biomedical Cr i te r ia .

6 DISCUSSION .

7 SUMMARY

REFERENCES .

ILLUSTRATIONS 1 Plan View of 601 and 602 Shelters and Contents as Used in

Experiment I . . 14

3 Station OPS Layout Chart . . 16 2 Plan View of Partitioned Group (Blast Biology) Shelter . . 15

9

ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued)

4 5

6

7

8

9

1 0 11 1 2

13

1 2 3

4

5

6 7

Layout of Smoky Shelters . Percentage of Survivors as a Function of Range f rom Ground Zero (Hiroshima) Range- Effect Relationship for Indicated P r imary Blas Damage fro; 20-Kt Yield at Hiroshima Burst Height of 1988 F t (606 Meters) Above Sea-Level Ter ra in Comparative-Effects Data Showing Ranges Inside Which Indicated Biological Responses May Occur for Sea-Level Surface Burs t s Percentage of Hiroshima Survivors as Functions of Range and Exposure Conditions . Comparative Biological Effects as a Function of Range for 20-Mt Surface Burs t at Sea Level (Range in Mi le s ) Biomedically Oriented Problem Areas . Physically Oriented Problem Areas

.

.

ComDarative Rawe-Yield Effects Relationships for Hiroshima 12.5-Kt Burst at 1870 Ft T570 Meters) Above Sea-Lev4 Terrair . . Comparative Range- Yield Effects Relationships for Nagasaki 22-Kt Burst at 1640 F t (500 Meters) Above Sea-Level Ter ra in .

TABLES Estimates for S,, Survival Ranges for Hiroshima Fifty Percent Survival Conditions for Hiroshima Tentative Biomedical Criteria for Direct (Pr imary) Blast Effects in Young Adults Applicable to “Fast”-Rising “Long”-Duration Overpressures in Air . Tentative Criteria for Indirect Blast Effects Involving Secondary Missiles Tentative Cri ter ia for Indirect (Tert iary) Blast Effects Involving Impact . Tentative Biomedical Criteria for Thermal Radiation Tentative Biomedical Cri ter ia for Penetrating Nuclear Radiations .

.

.

.

10

18

19

21

23

24

27 29 31

34

35

19 26

36

37

38 39 40

n

T H E NATURE O F T H E PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN ESTIMATING T H E IMMEDIATE CASUALTIES FROM NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

1 INTRODUCTION

T h i s presenta t ion wi l l e n c o m p a s s a bas i c e x e r c i s e in envi ron-

m e n t a l medic ine tha t i l l u s t r a t e s a port ion of the " c u r r e n t s t a t e of the

a r t " and s o m e of the cons t r a in t s bea r ing upon the e s t ima t ion of c a s u -

a l t i e s f r o m a nuc lea r detonation of s ignif icant yield.

cep t s on the one hand and biological ones on the o the r plus the not

s t r a igh t fo rward t a s k s of br inging t h e m toge ther wi l l be p re sen ted to

he lp i l l u s t r a t e the na ture of the p r o b l e m s faced by those who would

a s s e s s the consequences of t r ans i en t but l a r g e - s c a l e va r i a t ions in

the envi ronment of man .

Phys ica l con-

Before proceeding, it is appropr i a t e to s a y s e v e r a l o the r things.

First, one should emphas ize tha t many uncer ta in t ies a r e apprec ia ted by those who think about h igh -o rde r detonations. Among t h e m a r e de -

s ign, yield, r ange , burs t height, ambien t p r e s s u r e , w e a t h e r , t e r r a i n ,

and loca le such as b u r s t s o v e r o r n e a r a s e a coas t , ove r heavi ly o r

s p a r s e l y populated a r e a s o r "high" along the t r a j e c t o r y of one of to-

day ' s ocean- and continent-spanning m i s s i l e s .

;kResearch con t r ac t s s ince 1951 wi th the Division of Biology and Medicine of the Atomic Ene rgy Commiss ion and s ince 1959 with the De- f ense Atomic Support Agency of the Depar tmen t of Defense a r e acknowl- edged with apprec ia t ion ; such suppor t h a s made possible a t the Lovelace Foundation continuous r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m s in b l a s t and shock biology and nuc lea r e f fec ts tha t a r e still unde r way. Also acknowledged a r e the con- t r ibu t ions of va r ious m e m b e r s of the Lovelace staff who ove r the y e a r s have authored m o r e than 100 publications in th i s a r e a ; v i z . , T. L. Chiffelle in Pathology; D. R. Richmond in Compara t ive Envi ronmenta l Biology; R. K. Jones in Hematology and Pathology; R. V. Tabore l l i i n Engineer ing; the l a t e I. C. Bowen and E. R. F l e t c h e r i n Phys ics .

11

Second, of necess i ty , limits m u s t be placed upon the scope of what

M a t e r i a l included wi l l b e a r m o s t l y upon highly can be set fo r th briefly.

se lec ted immedia t e e f fec ts which follow a nuc lea r detonation i n a time

period of l e s s than one, but s o m e t i m e s up to a few minutes .

though many of the pr inc ip les involved wi l l apply, t he re i s no intent ion

of talking about the in t e rmed ia t e effects - appa ren t in a m a t t e r of many days

o r weeks - o r about la te e f fec ts s e e n in s e v e r a l months o r a s p a n of

m a n y y e a r s . Nei ther wi l l t he re be da ta about fa l lout included, even

though in the c a s e of a su r face o r a nea r - su r face bu r s t , r e s idua l rad ia-

t ion, including f i ss ion products , can occur v e r y e a r l y and can be con-

s i d e r e d a la te immedia t e e f fec t o r an "ear ly" in t e rmed ia t e effect under

s o m e c i r cums tances pa r t i cu la r ly f o r high-yield sur face detonat ions.

Even

Thi rd , though i l lus t ra t ive m a t e r i a l f r o m both field and l a b o r a t o r y

expe r i ence wi l l mos t ly involve b l a s t effects - d i r e c t due t o p r e s s u r e

va r i a t ions ; i nd i r ec t due t o t r ans l a t iona l events such as penet ra t ing o r

nonpenetrat ing d e b r i s o r t o whole -body d i sp lacemen t and impac t ; and

misce l l aneous m a t t e r s such as dus t , non-l ine-of-s i te b u r n s due t o hot,

dus t - laden a i r o r blast- induced f i r e s - t he re is cons iderable common-

a l i ty in a s s e s s i n g envi ronmenta l h a z a r d s . As a consequence, m u c h

per t inent to b l a s t e f fec ts wi l l i n pr inc ip le apply a l s o t o p r o b l e m s in-

volving both t h e r m a l and ionizing radiat ions.

Four th , in what follows, a n a t t empt wi l l be made

(a) To p r e s e n t se lec ted informat ion f r o m f ie ld data obtained a t the

Nevada T e s t Site and published m a t e r i a l f r o m the l abora to ry and re levant

fu l l - sca le exper ience in Japan .

(b) To speak about the tentat ive b iomedica l c r i t e r i a and t h e i r u se in

p repa r ing range-effects and range-yield-effects d i a g r a m s .

(c ) T o s u m m a r i z e the concepts s e t fo r th and to d r a w a few s imple

conclusions about what m u s t be done in the fu ture i f ra t ional i ty is to

guide those who would b r ing even a mod icum of p rec i s ion into the in-

format ion s y s t e m employed f o r e s t ima t ing casua l t i e s f r o m m o d e r n nuc lear

and the rmor_uclear explosives .

2 "FREE - FIE LD' VERSUS "NON- FREE - FIELD" EFFECTS

2.1 General

By ! ' f ree-f ie ld" e f fec ts i s m e a n t those envi ronmenta l va r i a t ions

which occur ove r flat t e r r a i n f r e e of buildings and significant f l o r a fol-

12

n

lowing a large-yield nuc lear explosion. Many m a n u a l s , including The Effec ts of Nuclear Weapons' and scal ing p r o c e d u r e s such a s employed

by F l e t c h e r e t a l . 2 to design the nuc lear bomb effects computer p r o -

curable f r o m the U. s. Government Pr in t ing Office, a r e avai lable for

those who would l e a r n how b l a s t effects and those at t r ibutable t o ionizing

and t h e r m a l radiat ion v a r y in magnitude f o r a var ie ty of conditions.

the p r e s e n c e of above- and below-ground s t r u c t u r e s , enough var ia t ion

i n t e r r a i n and heavi ly fores ted land, m a j o r envi ronmenta l var ia t ions

quite d i f fe ren t f r o m "free-f ie ld" effects a t the s a m e range m a y wel l

o c c u r a t m a n y locat ions of i n t e r e s t . Unfortunately, sys temat ized

quantitative da ta about such "non-free-field" c i r c u m s t a n c e s a r e s p a r s e

indeed and th i s f a c t r e p r e s e n t s a s e r i o u s deficiency in the l i t e r a t u r e

b e a r i n g upon i n d u s t r i a l health and safety.

In

T h e s e s imple, but impor tan t m a t t e r s wil l be i l lus t ra ted f r o m

pos t -war e x p e r i m e n t s a t the Nevada T e s t Site and w a r exper ience in

Japan , following which a few addi t ional points wi l l be emphas ized .

2.2 Nevada Test Site

1. 1953 - F i g u r e 1 shows c r o s s sec t ions of two c i r c u l a r 7-f t d i a m e t e r ,

50-f t long, tubular underground s t r u c t u r e s en tered by walk-down r a m p s

through openings without d o o r s subjected to a 16-kt nuc lear detonation in

1953.

on one occasion a t a range s i m i l a r to tha t f o r the s t r u c t u r e .

loca t ions inside one s h e l t e r , o v e r p r e s s u r e s w e r e h igher ; they v a r i e d f r o m

12.5 to 2 5 psi. All exposed a n i m a l s w e r e recovered , but exhibited d i f fe ren t

d e g r e e s of lung h e m o r r h a g e , being p r o g r e s s i v e l y m o r e s e v e r e a t locat ions

f a r t h e r and f a r t h e r f r o m the door .

e s t i m a t e d outside t h e r m a l l e v e l s w e r e approximate ly 100 c a l / c m .

An outside o r "free-f ie ld" o v e r p r e s s u r e of 13 .5 p s i w a s r e c o r d e d

At d i f fe ren t

A few w e r e mildly singed though the 2

Also the winds a t s o m e locat ions both inside and outside

the s t r u c t u r e w e r e calculated a t t i m e s t o be n e a r o r above sonic

veloci t ies .

la t ion of the exposed a n i m a l s .

using r e s t r a i n t l ines and heavy, cus tom-f i t h a r n e s s e s t o which e a c h

a n i m a l w a s t ra ined pre-shot .

Consequently, m e a s u r e s had to be taken t o p r e v e n t t r a n s -

T h i s w a s accompl ished by carefu l ly

2 . - 1955

Figure 2 depic t s d i a g r a m m a t i c a l l y a par t i t ioned, under - ground s t r u c t u r e tes ted open in 1955 a t a ground range of 1050 f t f r o m

13

n SHELTER 601

200 D 5 l 19 0 PSI Z4 0 o s ' 492 mscc 4 3 0 mscc 496 mscc

21 0 4 4 3

I3 50Sn D I R E C T I O N O F

B L A S T WAVE

/ I E R

25 0 psi 465 mscc

SHELTER 602 I 2 5 P S I 5 5 7 m w c

14 0 psi 538 mscc

$ 1 I S 7 I - 6 0 2 I--- / 13 S c s i --

Fig. 1-Plan view of 601 and 602 shelters and contents as used in Experiment I . Maximum recorded ouer- pressures and their durations are also shown.3

a tower detonation of 29 kt.

corded w a s 91 psi .

upon the s ize of the opening through which the b las t wave e n t e r e d .

the "fast"-fi l l s ide of the s h e l t e r , the pulse c a m e down the s t a i r s ,

m a d e two 90-degree t u r n s and spi l led into the s t r u c t u r e .

r e c o r d e d p r e s s u r e s ranging f r o m 64 to 73 psi .

the b l a s t wave en tered by way of a 3-ft s q u a r e v e r t i c a l chimney.

side p r e s s u r e s , f r o m four gauges, ranged f r o m 21 to 23 psi .

T h e m a x i m a l outside o v e r p r e s s u r e r e -

The p r e s s u r e s inside averaged 67 o r 22 p s i depending

On

Eight gauges

On the "slow"-fill s ide ,

In-

Of 20 " la rge" an imals carefu l ly r e s t r a i n e d to p r e v e n t

whole-body t rans la t ion , a l l w e r e recovered al ive except one of 10 in the

"fast"-fill s ide exposed opposite the e n t r y door .

his h a r n e s s , subsequent ly suffered "instant" fa ta l i ty by violent i m p a c t

The subject , t o r n f r o m

14

0

W

0

z 5 x W

3

In In W

f I

-0

h

Fl

r- c

W

0 a

(3

W

2

v)

v)

W

a

a

n

L! I a z

>

D I D

15

PRISCILLA SHOT O P S Underground Shelter

(UK 3 7 ) Range from G 2 900ft

Nole A , B a n d C = welghled croouel bolls Helghl o f underground chamber = 7 0 '

Scale tn feet

Absorber IV (2" thick)

Fig. 3-Station OPS layout chart.5

agains t the opposite wal l .

f r o m the hot, dust- laden g a s e s en ter ing the she l t e r . However , o t h e r s

w e r e singed only on the s ide towards the e n t r y way, but no s e r i o u s b u r n s

w e r e apparent .

lung hemor rhage (most ly m i n o r ) , subendocard ia l petechiae, two h e m o r -

rhagic sp leens , m e s e n t e r i c petechiae, one l e g f r a c t u r e in two non-fatal ly

displaced an ima l s , and an 83 -pe r cent rup ture of the tympanic m e m b r a n e s .

T h i s an ima l exhibited second d e g r e e bu rns

The re w a s one pneumothorax and va r ious d e g r e e s of

3 . 1957

Among m a n y 1957 field expe r imen t s of note, two wi l l be

mentioned he re .

ground z e r o known as UK 3. 7 exposed on the 37-kt P r i s c i l l a Shot detonated

The first w a s in an underground s t r u c t u r e 900 f t f r o m

700 f t above the t e r r a i n to a "free-f ie ld" o v e r p r e s s u r e of 65 psi. F igu re 3 5

16

shows a c r o s s sec t ion of the s h e l t e r , about 2 0 f t long, in which 1 /2- in .

s t e e l ba l l s w e r e suspended in a luminum foi l envelopes f r o m the cei l ing.

The "s teel ies l l have a n a c c e l e r a t i o n coefficient n e a r tha t f o r t t a v e r a g e l '

m a n .

even though the latter passed through a "baffled" e n t r y way. T h e i r

ve loc i ty a t impac t , de t e rmined by a "mis s i l e - abso rbe r " technique,

ave raged 129 f t / s e c o r about 9 0 mph.

f r o m the S tyrofoam a b s o r b e r w e r e s m a l l s tones .

f r o m outside o r w e r e scoured f r o m the conc re t e wa l l s of the e n t r y way.

They ranged in weight mos t ly f r o m 10 t o 100 mg. The i r m e a n veloci ty

w a s 376 f t / s e c , but in many ins t ances w a s between 550 and 800 f t / s e c ,

w e l l within the range fo r pene t ra t ion of the skin, the eyebal l and the

body wa l l of thin subjec ts .

They w e r e hur led against t he downs t r eam wal l by the b l a s t winds,

A l s o caught in and r e c o v e r e d

T h e s e c a m e e i t h e r

The second g roup of expe r imen t s in 1957 involved s e v e r a l 6 -8 heavy, c losed , bur ied s t r u c t u r e s exposed to f r o m 7 .5 t o 200 ps i .

In one s e r i e s , c a r r i e d out a t the r e q u e s t of the Office of Civi l Defense,

m i c e w e r e located in s e v e r a l s h e l t e r s among those shown d i a g r a m -

ma t i ca l ly in F i g u r e 4 . 9

f t f r o m a tower explosion of 43 kt .

r e c o r d e d f r o m 7.2 to 175 psi .

at 0 .2 t o 14 .4 ps i , t he i r being a "slow" leak through the vent i la t ion

s y s t e m on one occas ion . T h e r e w e r e no e a r l y deaths a t t r ibu tab le t o

b l a s t o r o the r nuc lea r e f fec ts ; al though in one s h e l t e r , an ima l s s u c -

cumbed t o ca rbon monoxide g a s f r o m a moto r -d r iven gene ra to r .

She l te r r anges va r i ed between 4320 and 840

"Free - f i e ld" o v e r p r e s s u r e s w e r e

Inside o v e r p r e s s u r e s w e r e mon i to red

2.3 Japan

F i g u r e 5, a pe r cent s u r v i v a l v e r s u s range plot of H i rosh ima ,

w a s p r e p a r e d s e v e r a l y e a r s ago f o r a presenta t ion in Albuquerque.

The da ta w e r e t aken f r o m the text of Oughterson and W a r r e n . l o They

show t h r e e d i f fe ren t exposure condi t ions along with the a v e r a g e f o r

the en t i r e c i ty . Though subsequent s tud ie s have shown the need t o

r e v i s e the da t a , and pa r t i cu la r ly quest ion the val idi ty of the point

m a r k e d 1 on F igu re 5 , such changes have not a l t e r e d the loud and

c l e a r m e s s a g e shown by the da t a ; namely , that exposure condi t ions c a n be a m a j o r f ac to r in su rv iva l and tha t in J apan the re w a s a sub-

s t an t i a l change in the 50-per cent s u r v i v a l range depending upon the

loca t ion of individuals ;

e x p o s u r e s in the open with tha t f o r personnel inside heavy s t r u c t u r e s .

The latter w e r e only spec ia l in tha t they w e r e of s e i s m i c design.

i. e . , c o m p a r e the c u r v e f o r "free-f ie ld"

17

G Z

I75 mi -

I65 psi - 0-30.6-8004 7 8-30.6-0001 7 -0-30.6-8002 33.1 /

8- 3 0.6- 8 009 33.1

81 psi -

W

-1 f

44.5 psi -

c cn a m

I I .5 psl -

LAYOUT OF SHELTERS J

SMOKY AREA

7.4psi -

-B%& 8 4 0 ft

8- 30.7 - 8008 33.1 - 33.5

hil R A h C A a

-EZ35iq- 33 5 33.5

hil R A c CA b

8-30.7-8011 8-30.7-8012 33.1 -33.5 33.1-33.5

-[FT& 1176 f t

0-30.7-8013 33.1 -33.5

8-307-8014 33.1-33.5 -Lb 8-30.7

2430 I t

- 8015 33.1- 33.5

m

-P 8-30.7-8016 4 3 2 0 f t 33.1- 33.5

Fig. 4-Layout of S m o k y shelters.6 3 9

O v e r p r e s s u r e s , t h e r m a l and ionizing rad ia t ion leve ls

a s s o c i a t e d with the S50 r anges fo r the fou r c u r v e s , c a n now be

e s t i m a t e d as shown in Table 1.

The informat ion given in F i g u r e 5 and Table 1 of c o u r s e

r a i s e s a s ignif icant quest ion; namely , what effect o r combinat ion of

e f fec ts w e r e r e spons ib l e fo r the casua l t i e s fo r each exposure condi t ion?

The r e a d e r , along with the au thor , c a n contemplate the f igures and

ponder t h e i r meaning and look later on at s o m e m o r e r ecen t data t o b e

p re sen ted subsequent ly .

18

- -- - - -0 I ----

JOINT COMMISSION DATA FOR OVERALL

4 "UNSHIELDED" SCHOOL PERSONNEL

6 "SHIELDED" SCHOOL PERSONNEL

-@ EXPOSED INSIDE CONCRETE BUILDINGS

POINT BUILDING NO. INDIVIDUALS NO. DESIGNATION EXPOSED

I POST OFFICE 400 (?-Set

3 TELEPHONE OFFICE 474 20- 4 CITY HALL 2 I6

2 TELEGRAPH OFFICE 30 I Tex'

5 COMMUNICATIONS OFFICE 682 6 BRANCH POST OFFICE 346 7 P O SAVINGS OFFICE 7 5 0

-

1 I I

10-

,.o'

Fig. 5-Percentage o f survivors as a funct ion o f range f r o m Ground Zero (Hiroshima). ( R e f . Joint Commission Report, Vol. VI, Document NP-3041.)

TABLE 1

ESTIMATES FOR S50 SURVIVAL RANGES FOR HIROSHIMA.

(PRESSURE AND THERMAL DATA FROM ENW;l IONIZING

12.5 K T A T 1870 F T (570 METERS) ABOVE SEA-LEVEL TERRAIN

11 RADIATION A F T E R AUXIGR E T AL. )

EXPOSURE RANGE MAX. PRES. IONIZ. RAD. THER. RAD CONDITION MI PSI RAD C A L / C M ~

1.3 3 < 10 5 "OPEN"

AVERAGE

WOODEN BUILDINGS

CONCRETE BUILDINGS 0 .12

0.8 7 90 13

0.45 13 2,000 32

2 4 20 ,000 80

19

It i s a l s o impor tan t tha t the l i t e r a t u r e shows t h e r e w e r e

c lose t o 45, 000 "ea r ly" fa ta l i t i es among 255, 000 civi l ians a t r i s k in

Hiroshima. Th i s m e a n s 210, 000 p e r s o n s , m o r e o r l e s s , walked o r

w e r e helped out of the city. Of these , t h e uninjured numbered n e a r

110,000, the surv iv ing casua l t i e s between 70 and 75 thousand and the

non- su rv ivo r s about 20 to 25 thousand.

people plus bui ldings, pa r t i cu la r ly heavy ones, a re a tough t a r g e t ,

tha t t h e r e is a d i f fe rence be tween physical and biological des t ruc t ion

(the two concepts should not be confused) and tha t one should b e alert

f o r the possibi l i ty of many m o r e e a r l y s u r v i v o r s in c a s e of a nuc lea r

confl ic t than have been e s t ima ted over t he pas t s e v e r a l y e a r s .

10

Th i s of c o u r s e ind ica tes tha t

2.4 Implications

F r o m what has been p resen ted thus far, a number of things

c a n be sa id .

F i r s t , it is amply c l e a r f r o m expe r i ence a t the Nevada T e s t

Site and in Japan tha t posi t ional and or ien ta t iona l f ac to r s a r e of im-

por tance under both "free -field" and "non-free -field" s i tua t ions f r o m

the physical as we l l as biological points of view.

Second, the condi t ions of exposure , including s t r u c t u r a l

des ign , shape of openings and o the r geomet r i c f a c t o r s can c r i t i ca l ly

a l t e r the " f ree -field" p a r a m e t e r s : indeed depending on de ta i l s , the

t l ins ide" envi ronment m a y be m u c h w o r s e , the s a m e , o r less cha l -

lenging than tha t "outside. I '

Th i rd , it follows tha t the locat ion of people at b u r s t time

along with re levant posi t ional , o r ien ta t iona l and geomet r i c f a c t o r s

e m e r g e as highly s ignif icant matters in de te rmining the number , kind

and d is t r ibu t ion of potential ca sua l t i e s .

Four th , f u r t h e r re f inement in ana lys i s wil l r e q u i r e knowledge

of the envi ronmenta l va r i a t ion - t h e "dose" if you wi l l -a t the locat ion

of the t a r g e t whether "free-f ie ld" o r "non-free -field;" whether on the

s t r e e t , in the a t t ic , on the ground f loor o r in the basemen t ; whe the r

ins ide "light, I I "heavy" o r a v a r i e t y of o the r s t r u c t u r a l des igns . Th i s

m o s t l y is a p rob lem fo r eng inee r s and physical ly or iented personnel

both empi r i ca l ly and theo re t i ca l ly or iented.

Fif th , t h e r e is a need f o r adequate and indeed quite p r e c i s e

d o s e - r e s p o n s e da ta fo r s ingle effects and fo r combinat ions of env i ron -

m e n t a l s t r e s s e s . Work in th i s a r e a a imed a t formula t ing m o r e

20

meaningfu l b iomedica l c r i t e r i a for h a z a r d s a s s e s s m e n t i s not moving

ahead as rap id ly a s it should.

phys ica l ly and biomedical ly or ien ted pe r sonne l including those w i s e in

compara t ive physiology and the use of i n t r a spec ie s m a m m a l i a n s tud ie s

t o he lp make meaningful ex t rapola t ions applicable t o man.

3

This mos t ly is a p rob lem fo r bio-

TENTATIVE BIOMEDICAL CRITERIA AND THEIR APPLICATION

3.1 General The compIex, tedious, difficult and expensive t a s k of p r o -

viding informat ion f r o m which t o fo rmula t e sa t i s f ac to ry b iomedica l

c r i t e r i a cannot be d i scussed h e r e . Nei ther can the da ta be p re sen ted

f r o m which c u r r e n t l y available c r i t e r i a have been der ived . Suffice it

t o s a y that a beginning has been m a d e ''-I4 and tentative c r i t e r i a a r e

at hand. 14-19 What follows i s a b r i e f d i scuss ion of t h e i r p r o p e r

application and the c r i t i c a l p rob lems that e m e r g e .

3.2 Application of Tentative Biomedical Criteria

At t empt s have been m a d e t o ut i l ize the available b iomed ica l

c r i t e r i a and se l ec t ed examples wil l now be presented .

1. " F r e e -F ie ld"

a . F o r a Specified Yield

F igu re 619 shows , for "free-field" conditions, a r ange -e f f ec t d i a g r a m sca led for a 20-k t b u r s t a t 1988 f t (606 m e t e r s ) .

Ground Range, mi Fig. 6-Range-effect relationship for indicated primary blast damage f r o m 20-kt yield at Hiroshima burst height of 1988 f t (606 meters) above sea-level terrain.

21

Superimposed on the incident and re f lec ted p r e s s u r e c u r v e s a r e

tentat ive b l a s t c r i te ria:' f o r "fa s t - r i s ing , "long I t -durat ion over - p r e s s u r e s . T h e s e include the e s t ima ted thresholds for e a r d r u m

fa i lu re and lung damage as wel l as the magnitudes of the o v e r p r e s s u r e s

f o r va r ious leve ls of surv iva l . l 9

given, it i s poss ib le to specify the r anges ins ide which va r ious specif ied

e f fec ts can be ant ic ipated. Also, if one chooses , the a r e a m a y be p r e -

d ic ted over which t h e r e i s a potent ia l for a defined type of damage .

Such an exe rc i se might be usefu l and valid within a reasonable expec-

It i s c l e a r tha t , by using the f igu res

ta t ion f o r individuals exposed in the open.

c l e a r tha t such is not the c a s e fo r "non-free-field" condi t ions; i. e. , However, let i t be quite

the appl icat ion of the biomedical c r i t e r i a using sca l ed "free-f ie ld"

da t a c a n " say t1 absolutely nothing meaningful about the shape of the

casua l ty c u r v e s for d i f f e ren t types of biomedical damage ins ide the

range of i n t e r e s t for the s e v e r a l specif ied e f fec ts .

s c a l e exper ience and that a t the Nevada T e s t Site c i ted previous ly

m a k e th i s quite obvious.

Cer ta in ly fu l l -

b. F o r a Broad-Yield Spec t rum

C r i t e r i a f o r va r ious b l a s t e f fec ts and f o r defined

d a m a g e f r o m ionizing and t h e r m a l radiat ion c a n be a s sembled in

r ange -yield -effects d i a g r a m s tha t a r e useful. Note F igu re 7 fo r

example . 16' l 9

shown f o r s ea - l eve l su r f ace b u r s t s a c r o s s a yield s p e c t r u m f rom

one k t t o 20 Mt on a "free-f ie ld" b a s i s . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l i m -

por tan t points apparent f r o m the f igure.

The e s t ima ted r anges f o r specif ied effects a r e

T h r e e wil l be mentioned.

First, the r anges for first and second degree

b u r n s i n c r e a s e the m o s t with yield.

ionizing radiat ion i n c r e a s e the l e a s t .

hold a n in te rmedia te posit ion.

f o r whole-body t r ans l a t ion and th i s h a z a r d for l a rge yields could

e a s i l y compete with window g l a s s as the m o s t f a r - r each ing ef fec t

pa r t i cu la r ly on a cloudy day o r ove r hazy c i t i e s , which conditions

would sharp ly d e p r e s s the t r a n s m i s s i o n of t h e r m a l radiat ion.

Those for 100 and 200 r e m of

Var ious specif ied b l a s t e f fec ts

The s t eepes t cu rve on the c h a r t is

Second, the nonpara l le l na ture of the r ange -

yield-effects c u r v e s m a k e s i t n e c e s s a r y t o cons ider the changing

2 0 *These have been rev ised . See White e t al. ; I8 Richmond e t al. ;

J o n e s e t al. ;21 Bowen e t al. ;22 and Tables 3 , 4, and 5 appear ing s u b s e qu e nt 1 y .

22

Applied to Ideal or Near-ideal Wave Forms 50

IO

.- 5 E 0) 0 C 0 E

I .o

.5

0. I IKT 5 IOKT 50 IOOKT IMT 5 IOMT 20MT

Yield

Fig. 7+omparatiue-effects data showing ranges inside which indicated biological responses may occur for sea-leuel surface bursts.

r a t i o of the m a j o r effects t o one a n o t h e r when es t imat ing h a z a r d s

at v a r i o u s yields .

being equal - t h a t (a) the p a t t e r n of envi ronmenta l s t r e s s o r s changes

with yield; (b) the d is t r ibu t ion of c a s u a l t i e s could be different at low,

i n t e r m e d i a t e , and high yields and ( c ) the "mix" among different

kinds of damage among those suffer ing mult iple in jur ies wi l l a l s o

v a r y much with yield.

Among o ther things th i s m e a n s - a l l o ther things

Thi rd , t h e H i r o s h i m a and Nagasaki exper ience

appl ies only t o the 10- t o 25-kt port ion of the yield s p e c t r u m .

f o r w a r d u s e of the casua l ty d a t a would be e a s i e r if the c u r v e s in

F i g u r e 7 w e r e all para l le l , but s ince t h i s i s not t h e c a s e , extrapolat ion

c a n h a r d l y be made t o the lower and par t icu lar ly t o the h igher yields.

Any meaningful use of the ful l -scale da ta poses difficult p r o b l e m s

indeed .

Straight-

2 . "Non-Free -Field"

Be this as it may, t h e r e is no end t o m a n ' s ingenuity,

-

and p e r s o n n e l of the Dikewood Corpora t ion working under suppor t

f r o m the Atomic E n e r g y C o m m i s s i o n and the Office of Civi l Defense

have pushed ahead with ana ly t ica l s tud ies . With cons iderable p e r -

23

I I I I I I I I I

Davis, Baker, and Summers, "Analysis - se Nuclear Casualty Data", Reports DC-

Projects, Dikewaod Corp., Albuquerque, N. M.

50% Survival Range, mi. SRC : Seismic Reinforced Concrete (all) 0.20 SRC-B : SRC Basement 0. IO - S R C - L : SRC Lower Floors 0.08 SRC-M : SRC Middle Floors 0.20 SRC-U : SRC Upper Floors 0.23 NRC : Non-Seismic Reinforced Concrete 0 .3 2 L S F : Light Steel Frome 0.46 - OS : Outside, Shielded 0.48

0.48 - WFC : Wood Frame Commercial 0.49 WFD : Wood Frame Dwelling 0 . 5 5 - OU : Outside, Unshielded 0 . 7 5

-

-

I I I I I I I I I

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10,000 Horizontal Range, f t

Fig. 8-Percentage of Hiroshimn suruiuors as functions o f range and exposure conditions.

cep t iveness and m u c h ef for t , they have p r o g r e s s e d in r e a s s e s s i n g

the Japanese da t a ava i lab le today. Some of t he i r da t a wi l l now be

c i ted .

a. Survival-Range Data for Var ious S t ruc tu res

Davis , B a k e r and S u m m e r s have p r e p a r e d e s t i -

m a t e d r ange - le thal i ty c u r v e s fo r va r ious conditions for both

Hi rosh ima and Nagasaki . 23 F i g u r e 8, plotted t o depict s u r v i v a l p e r -

cen tages , shows the r e s u l t s fo r H i rosh ima . Bes ides a n e s t ima ted

c u r v e fo r "free-f ie ld" exposures (OU) and for outs ide shielded s t r u c -

t u r e s (OS), 10 o the r condi t ions w e r e identified. T h e s e included b a s e -

men t , ground and upper f loo r s of s e i s m i c , re inforced c o n c r e t e bui ldings;

non- se i smic , re inforced conc re t e s t r u c t u r e s ; light s t e e l - f r a m e bui ldings;

wood-f rame c o m m e r c i a l and c iv i l ian dwellings and vehic les .

.b

The 50-pe r cen t su rv iva l r anges (Ss0), shown in the

T h e i r a v e r a g e for all c u r v e s combined w a s 0 . 6 m i .

f igure , ranged f r o m 0 .10 t o 0 . 7 5 m i fo r the sample s tudied by the

Dikewood w o r k e r s .

.I,

" P r e p a r e d by the late I. G. Bowen, Head, Depa r tmen t of Phys ic s , Lovelace Foundat ion fo r Medical Educat ion and Resea rch , Albuquerque, New Mexico.

24

b. The S50 " F r e e - F i e l d " Effec ts Data

Table 2 , p repa red f r o m the indicated s o u r c e s , i s *

of g r e a t i n t e r e s t f o r this presenta t ion .

r e a s o n s ; among t h e m a r e :

Th i s i s s o fo r a number of

First, the S50 point on each cu rve can be taken

t o r e p r e s e n t an equivalent biological challenge, i . e . , su rv iva l w a s

50 p e r cent.

Second, the t ' f ree- f ie ld t ' a i r - d o s e va lues for the

range v a r y widely; v i z . , f r o m 25 p s i - 50 m a j o r effects a t e a c h S

80 c a l / c m 2 - 22 ,000 r ad fo r a range of 0. 1 m i t o 8 psi - 15 c a l / c m

150 r a d f o r a r ange of 0 . 7 5 mi.

2 -

Thi rd , however the " f r ee -field" p a r a m e t e r s w e r e - i n r ea l i t y a l t e r e d by the conditions of exposure , it i s unlikely tha t

the inside "dose" was the s a m e fo r e a c h effect - r a t h e r the equivalent

biological r e s p o n s e was no doubt due t o va r ious combinat ions of t he

m a j o r effects .

Four th , thus again the need f o r knowing m o r e

about envi ronmenta l conditions a t the loca t ions of exposure and f o r

having b iomedica l c r i t e r i a equal to the challenge posed by r e a l i s t i c

combinat ions of t he effects occur r ing w h e r e people a r e o r wil l be

is s t rongly emphas ized .

3.3 The Effects-Range Cascade

Severa l y e a r s ago, the author with the he lp of the la te I. G . Bowen p repa red F igu re 9 , showing by a s e r i e s of ho r i zon ta l b a r g raphs

the inc reas ing r anges for each spec i f ied effect a s e s t i m a t e d f r o m

sca led da ta for a 20-Mt s e a - l e v e l s u r f a c e b u r s t combined with the

tentative b iomedica l c r i t e r i a ava i lab le at that t ime. l 6 Moving f r o m

r ight to left and t o p to bot tom, what might be t e r m e d the "effects-

range c a s c a d e " i l l u s t r a t e s v e r y wel l on a "free -field" bas i s m a n y

of the potential immedia te cha l lenges that can be anticipated and range

ove r which e a c h might occur .

It i s a n in t e re s t ing e x e r c i s e t o contempla te "climbing" the

In doing s o , c a s c a d e f r o m the bot tom t o top and f r o m r ight to left .

.t,

' "Prepared by the la te I. G. Bowen, Head, Depar tment of Phys ic s , Lovelace Foundation for Medical Educat ion and R e s e a r c h , Albuquerque, New Mexico.

25

T A B L E 2

FIFTY - P E R CENT SURVIVAL CONDITIONS FOR HIROSHIMA

HORIZONTAL MAX OVER- THERMAL INITIAL IONIZING RANGE 2 3 PRESSUIRE RADIATION RADIATION

LOCATION mi f t p s i cal/cm rem rad

DIKEW OOD ENW E N W ~ E N W ~ O R N L ~ ~ 2

I !

/ 1 ,

,

Ei) Q)

SRC, SEISMIC REINFORCED CONCRETE (ALL)

SRC, BASEMENT

SRC, LOWER FLOORS

SRC, MIDDLE FLOORS

SRC, U P P E R FLOORS

NON - SEISMIC REINFORCED CONCRETE

LIGHT S T E E L FRAME

OUTSIDE SHIELDED

VEHICLES

WOOD FRAME COMMERCIAL

WOOD FRAME DWELLING

OUTSIDE UNSHIELDED

. 2 0

.IO

. 0 8

. 20

. 2 3

.32

. 4 6

. 4 8

. 4 8

.49

.55

.75

1 , 0 5 6

52 8

42 2

1 , 0 5 6

1 , 2 1 4

1 , 6 9 0

2 , 4 2 9

2 , 5 3 4

2 , 5 3 4

2 , 5 8 7

2 , 9 0 4

3 , 9 6 0

19 .8

25 .6

26 .4

19 .8

18 .0

14.0

13.3

13.2

13.2

13 .1

12.0

7.9

67

8 0

83

67

63

49

32

30

30

29

25

15

23, 500

37, 300

39, 800

23, 500

19 ,600

10, 500

3, 720

3, 180

3, 180

2 , 9 3 0

1, 860

430

13 , 300

2 2 , 0 0 0

23 , 100

13, 300

1 0 , 8 0 0

5 , 7 0 0

1 , 8 3 0

1 , 5 5 0

1 , 5 5 0

1 , 4 3 0

850

151

49pst 450rems 1600Col,cm2

44ps, 200rems 1500col/cm2

44ps, ZOOrems 1500cal~cm2

Thermal radiation. lethality Near 5 0 per cent

Initial nuclear radiation 41 1400co l~cmZ I miury. threshold I

I 4psi <Irem 20ca~cm'

41 PSI IOOrems 1400cal/cm2

3 ~ p s i 50rems 1300cal/crn'

Thermal rodiation- lethality Threshold

Thermal radiation Shin locerjt ions from IO-gm gloss fragments. threshold

Thermal radiation Shin b u r n t - second degree. IO-mi visibility

Primary blast Ietholity. threshold - 3ops, i l orems I ~ 0 0 c o l / c m 2 without pressure reflection I

I.opsi ',rem IIcoI,cmz

Lopsi <lrem 10col/cm2

lopsi 'Irern IocaVCm2

1 6 4 ~ 5 1 c l rem 160col/cmz I Lung doma e. threshold - moxbmum pressure rellection

Thermal radialion. threshold Skin burns-f i rst degree. 5 0 - m i visibility

I Eardrum failure. threshold - m a r ~ m u m pressure reflection

0.40psi < l rem

Impact i n p r y skull fracture, threshold * I 2 3psi c l rem 39col/cm2 I 2 3psi Clrem 39co1/cm'

2 3psi <!rem 4 2 c a 1 / c m ~ Thermal radiotion lefhollty

Impact injury. threshold' 1 1 epsi slrern 26col/cm2 I

I

Thermal radiation. threshold o,BBpsi <lrem 9Scallcmz Significant injury

I Thermal radialion. threshold 0.66psi <I tem Skin burns -second degree. 5 0 - m i visibility I

Thermal radiation, threshoid 0.62psi <Irem Skin burns - f i rs t degree, IO-mi visibility 1 4col/cmz

> i i 4 i i i 4 i i A i ; o io a b 4 o j o $ o i o m &&so Range in Mi les

Alter loft 01 travel

Fig. M o m p a r a t i v e biological e f fects as a function o f range f o r 20-Mt surface burst a t sea level. (Af ter Effects ,--, of Nuclear Weapons,' CEX-58.8,14 DASA-1341,' and DASA-1462.' See DASA-1856l-1 f o r latest revision o f

biomedical criteria.) crs 27

think first about s imple and p rogres s ive ly m o r e compl ica ted ways to

avoid o r prevent injury. Second, a s the range d e c r e a s e s , think anew

about the changing c h a r a c t e r of the "free-f ie ld" effects and a s s e s s

t h e i r haza rd potential. F o r example , the far-reaching t h e r m a l f luxes

c a n eas i ly be avoided s imply by being indoors and far enough f r o m

windows.

prevented by s taying away f r o m glazed a r e a s , d o o r s and o ther open-

ings .

un le s s one m o v e s t o b a s e m e n t s , p r e p a r e s and occupies "hardened"

a r e a s within the building, o r chooses t o vaca te the l igh ter and

occupy the heav ie r s t r u c t u r e s .

In jury f r o m g l a s s and d i sp lacemen t can be min imized o r

The f a i lu re of light s t r u c t u r e s at 3 to 5 psi poses p rob lems

Now tha t the point is made , t h e r e i s no need t o be l abor the

matter fu r the r except t o s a y tha t in J apan s o m e of the s e i s m i c

s t r u c t u r e s proved to be su rp r i s ing ly "hard .

i n s t ance was Building 402 l i s ted by Davis e t a l . as a p a r t of the

Nagasaki Universi ty Hospi ta l .

loca t ion of the building, 2145 f t f r o m the hypocenter , was 30 ps i ,

The p e r cent s t r u c t u r a l damage w a s l i s t ed a s "none" in the Dikewood

r e p o r t .

Such a n i m p r e s s i v e

The estimated o v e r p r e s s u r e at the 2 3

T h e r e w e r e s e v e r a l such heavy, conc re t e buildings in Japan .

Many s tood u p a t o v e r p r e s s u r e s ranging f r o m 15 t o 30 psi .

no te s the in t e rmed ia t e b a r of the "cascade" in F i g u r e 9 labeled

"30 p s i ,

the s h o r t e r r a n g e s and a t the same time keeps in mind the t e s t and

fu l l - sca l e exper ience a l r eady mentioned in th i s presenta t ion , t he

t a s k s facing those who would e s t i m a t e casua l t i e s fo r a "housed"

populat ion can be m o r e r ea l i s t i ca l ly apprec ia ted .

h a r d l y anyone who r e a d s th i s far and knows the old adage tha t "an

ounce of prevent ion is wor th a pound of c u r e " c a n ha rd ly e s c a p e

ask ing why m o r e advantage has not been taken of the knowledge at

hand.

t o the c r a t e r l i p f o r s u r f a c e b u r s t s is poss ib le today.

feasibi l i ty is not the p rob lem and the r e a d e r c a n we l l a s k what con-

s t r a i n t s , o ther than economic , need counter ing t o the end tha t wide-

s p r e a d pro tec t ive cons t ruc t ion wi l l become a real i ty .

If one

notes the va lues of the o ther " f ree- f ie ld" p a r a m e t e r s at

To be s u r e ,

P ro tec t ion we l l within the rad ius of the f i r eba l l and r igh t up

Technica l

4 THE PROBLEM AREAS

4.1 General

It wi l l be helpful now to br ing toge ther the points m a d e thus

28

far.

f i r s t it wi l l aid those who would improve the conceptual izat ion of the

informat ion s y s t e m r e q u i r e d for a r a t iona l approach to casua l ty

e s t ima t ion , a n d second it wi l l guide those who would move ahead

i n r e s e a r c h t o provide the m i s s i n g da ta b a s e with which the s y s t e m

c a n be improved . The re levant p rob lem a r e a s of i n t e r e s t t o phys -

ica l ly and biological ly or ien ted pe r sonne l have been outlined else - w h e r e , l 7 but wi l l be s u m m a r i z e d below.

Such a synthes is wi l l be useful in a t l e a s t two ways ; namely ,

4.2 The Problem Areas

1. Biomedical ly Or ien ted

The biomedical ly or ien ted p rob lem areas a r e de l inea ted

i n F i g u r e 10. The r e a d e r wi l l recognize tha t the s e v e r a l por t ions of

the d i a g r a m s imply outline a logical approach t o h a z a r d s a s s e s s m e n t

when the l a t t e r is to depend upon dose - re sponse re la t ionships . The

I ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGE

(Search for Biologically Significant Physical Parameters and their Quantitation)

"LOADING" FORCES

BIOPHYSICAL INTERACTION

(Energy Dissipation by or within Biologic Media)

ETIOLOGIC MECHANISMS

(Diagnosis, Therapy, Casualty Care, Rehabilitation, Acute and

Chronic Health Problems)

PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND PROTECTIVE PROCEDURES

(Identification and Quantitation of Crit i ca I Bi 01 og i c Response( s 1, Major

Medical Syndromes for Single and Combined Stresses)

INTRASPECIES STUDIES AND EXTRA PO LATI ON S

J I HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

(Biomedical Criteria for Judging Hazardous and Nonhazardous Conditions and Transient

and Permanent Effects)

INDUSTRIAL SAFETY, PROTECTIVE DESIGN, ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH

AND CONTROL

Fig. 10-Biornedically oriented problem areas.'

29

diff icul t ies c o m e when one wi shes t o w o r k quant i ta t ively and formal ize

the n e c e s s a r y c r i t e r i a encompass ing those l eve l s of specif ied e n -

v i ronmen ta l va r i a t ions tha t a r e to l e rab le ; bo the r some; a s soc ia t ed with

the threshold of injury; give a dec remen t in pe r fo rmance ; produce

f r ank minor and s e r i o u s casua l t i e s ; and a r e a s soc ia t ed with low, i n t e r -

med ia t e and high leve ls of le thal i ty .

It is n e c e s s a r y on the one hand to s e a r c h f o r one o r m o r e

of the s t r e s s i n g phys ica l p a r a m e t e r s tha t i s o r a r e s ignif icant b io-

logically. Th i s , of c o u r s e , i s bas i c t o the definit ion of "dose" and

needs be prac t ica l ly chosen to e a s e in tegra t ion with the m a j o r effects

p a r a m e t e r s .

and quant i ta te the biological r e sponse o r r e sponses tha t i s o r are

s ignif icant along with the c r i t i c a l o rgan o r port ions of the body, damage

t o which cont r ibu tes t o the biological outcome of the s t r e s s .

who work in t h e s e a r e a s apprec i a t e the need for elucidating etiologic

m e c h a n i s m s as an aid t o in te rpre t ing symptomatology, s h a r p e n diag - nos i s and the rapy and t o guide thinking about prophylact ic and p r o -

tec t ive m e a s u r e s.

On the o the r hand, i t is equally impor tan t t o identify

Most

In re la t ion t o nuc lea r e f fec ts , b iomedica l r e s e a r c h e r s

f ace two o ther impor tan t matters.

employing an ima l s t o inves t iga te hazardous s i tua t ions and the e m e r g -

ing problems of i n t r a s p e c i e s ex t rapola t ions f r o m which e s t i m a t e s

f o r m a n can be der ived . The o ther conce rns the choice of leve ls of

the m a j o r e f fec ts p a r a m e t e r s t o be s tudied, s ingly and in combina-

t ions , as we l l as the fixing of p r i o r i t i e s among e m p i r i c a l and t h e o r e t -

ical s tud ies t o opt imize p r o g r e s s in the y e a r s ahead.

cons idera t ion of physical concepts , l i a i son and physical ly or ien ted

personnel and a n apprec ia t ion of t h e i r p rob lem a r e a s a r e all e s sen t i a l .

Attention wil l now be s o d i r ec t ed .

One conce rns the necess i ty fo r

In th i s r e g a r d ,

2 . Phys ica l ly Oriented

The need f o r guidance regard ing all the envi ronmenta l

va r i a t ions that can occur at inhabited loca t ions following nuc lear

explosions c a n hard ly be overemphas ized . To he lp s u m m a r i z e the

complexi t ies involved, F i g u r e 11 i s presented . l 7 The many t a s k s

include e f for t s t o develop a quantitative understanding of the m a j o r

"free-f ie ld" p a r a m e t e r s and t h e i r r e l a t ion t o the explosive sou rce ;

t o l e a r n how and by what amount the conditions of exposure and

geomet r i c f a c t o r s augment o r a l leviate the " f ree -field" e f fec ts ; t o

9

30

g r a s p the aerodynamic pr inc ip les of the t rans la t iona l p r o c e s s where in

objects including m a n a r e "energized" by b l a s t shock and winds 5, 24

ATTENUATION AND/OR AUGMENTATION

(Modif icat ion of Free -F ie id P hen ome ria by Expo sure Conditions and Geometry

GEOMETRIC FACTORS

4

as wel l a s by ground shock and gravi ty ; and t o recognize the impor tance

of posit ional and or ientat ional f a c t o r s for exposures in t h e open a s w e l l

as in shielded o r par t ly shielded s i tuat ions.

I

PHYSICAL INTERACTION

(Energy Transfer Resulting i n Translation of Animate and

Inanimate Objects)

TRANSLATIONAL EVENTS m

L

ENERGY SOURCE

(Design, Yield, Range, Burst Conditions, Ambient

Pressure, Weather)

FREE-FIELD SCALING

POSITIONAL FACTOR

(Orientation or Posi t ion of Target Media)

r E N V 1 R O N M E y T A L VARIATIONS I A T

LOCATIONS OF INTEREST ~

Fig, 11-Physically oriented problem areas,'

T h e r e a r e many difficult ies and complexi t ies involved,

but a n i n c r e a s e d effor t t o move a h e a d wil l pay high dividends.

casua l ty e s t i m a t e s will become m o r e p r e c i s e .

"safe" and "hazardous" a r e a s in ex is t ing buildings will become m o r e

feas ib le and meaningful.

"hardened" des ign f o r "closed" o r "open" protect ive s t r u c t u r e s can

be m o r e fully explored. Analysis of the exper ience in J a p a n can be

Nuclear

The identification of

The philosophy of providing "slanted" o r

31

broadened a n d the r e s u l t s can contr ibute m o r e t o environmental

medicine and the understanding of n u c l e a r effects on man.

4.3 Synthesis

In s u m m a r y t h e r e continues t o be a need to advance the

understanding of nuc lear effects both upon a n i m a l s and m a n and

upon the environment in which they m a y be exposed.

m u s t continue working t o complete the quantitative fabr ic needed

t o i n t e r r e l a t e adequately a l l the p r o b l e m areas noted in F i g u r e s 10

and 11 above.

of percept ive individuals t r a i n e d in the phys ica l , biophysical, b io-

logical and biomedical s c i e n c e s . Much of the information needed

is s imply not a t hand. However , much m o r e is now known than in

t h e p a s t including a formal iza t ion of the conceptual base f o r t h e

information s y s t e m needed t o widen m a n ' s g r a s p of nuc lear e f for t s .

T h i s will and can be improved. Such e f f o r t s , along with r e s e a r c h

t o provide the data base for making the s y s t e m m o r e quant i ta t ive,

provide a chal lenge to the bes t minds in the land.

All concerned

F o r c e r t a i n th i s will r e q u i r e the col laborat ive e f for t s

5 THE ICHIBAN PROGRAM, REVISED COMPARATIVE EFFECTS CHARTS FOR HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI AND THEIR RELATION TO BIOMEDICAL CRITERIA

5.1 The Ichiban Program

One of the m o s t s t imulat ing and productive e f for t s in e n -

v i ronmenta l medicine a s it touches nuc lear effects was ini t ia ted by

t h e Health P h y s i c s Division of the Oak Ridge National Labora tory in

1956. ducted in col laborat ion with the Atomic Bomb Casual ty C o m m i s -

sion.

E n e r g y C o m m i s s i o n through the U. S. National Academy of Sciences,

National R e s e a r c h Counci l and c a r r i e d out in cooperat ion with the

Minis t ry of Heal th and Welfare of the J a p a n e s e Government . The

effor t , a i m e d a t de te rmining the radiat ion e x p o s u r e s of s u r v i v o r s

at Hiroshima and Nagasaki , is mentioned h e r e because it g o e s t o

the h e a r t of the impor tan t difference between "free -field" o r a i r

d o s e __. - dependent m o s t l y on yield, design, b u r s t height, range and

weather - a n d exposure dose , which, except €or unshielded s i t u -

a t ions in the open, is much d e t e r m i n e d by t h e exposure conditions including geometr ic , posit ional and or ien ta t iona l f a c t o r s noted in

F i g u r e 11 and d i s c u s s e d in the preceding material.

Known a s the Ichiban P r o g r a m , the s tud ies have b e e n con-

They have b e e n supported by the U. S. Atomic 11 ,25-31

32

The p r o g r a m h a s been highly successfu l and i l l u s t r a t e s

v e r y wel l the kind of effor t needed t o advance the understanding of

n u c l e a r effects f r o m the point of view of ionizing radiation. T h e r e

have been s ignif icant advances ( a ) in improving scaling p r o c e d u r e s

f o r set t ing for th the "free-f ie ld" dis t r ibut ion of radiation in a i r

above the a i r -ground interface and (b) in providing s implif ied m e a n s

for a s s e s s i n g the shielding f a c t o r s f o r many types of s t r u c t u r e s in-

cluding those in which people survived in Japan.

5.2 Revised Comparative Effects Charts for Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Additional de ta i l s of this r e m a r k a b l e p r o g r a m cannot be

given h e r e , but it i s appropr ia te t o point out that for s o m e t i m e

broadening the Ichiban s tudies to include a l l weapons effects h a s

P r o g r e s s of necess i ty h a s been slow. b e e n under way.

However , s ince Auxier e t a l .

b u r s t height f igures f o r H i r o s h i m a and Nagasaki , .'. there w a s a n 3 4 opportunity to move ahead. A s a consequence, the late Bowen

p r e p a r e d compara t ive effects d i a g r a m s consis tent with the Ichiban

va lues .

paper and update c h a r t s published previously, l 9 they a r e included

h e r e a s F i g u r e s 12 and 13.

1 9 , 3 z , 33

30 published r e a s s e s s e d yield and .1*

Because t h e s e a r e g e r m a n e t o the subject m a t t e r of th i s

The c u r v e s show "free-field" range-ef fec ts da ta for t h e

m a j o r effects and c e r t a i n o ther a r b i t r a r i l y chosen conditions d e -

fined in the c h a r t s .

app ropr i a t e : p r e s s u r e s in psi ; ionizing rad ia t ion in rads o r r e m ;

t h e r m a l radiat ion in c a l / c m 2 ; and t rans la t iona l veloci t ies f o r a

10-gm f ragment of window g l a s s and a n a v e r a g e , "tumbling, 1 6 8 - l b

m a n in f t / s e c . t

The lef t s c a l e (the Y a x i s ) r e p r e s e n t s , as

Though the c h a r t s a r e somewhat complex, they help one

apprec ia te the changing c h a r a c t e r of the "free -field" envi ronmenta l

var ia t ions and s o m e of t h e possible t r a n s l a t i o n a l p r o c e s s e s a s they

v a r y with range for the two explosions. T o apprec ia te both the

.L

' "Hiroshima--lZ. 5 kt a t a b u r s t height of 570 m (1570 f t ) . Nagasaki - -22 kt a t a b u r s t height of 500 m (1640 f t ) .

tThe acce lera t ion coefficient, C Y , noted in the f igures , i s d e - fined a s the a r e a of the object presented t o the wind-multiplied by the d r a g coefficient divided by the m a s s ; the units a r e sq f t / lb - - see CEX-58 . 9 . '*

33

I

I

im cAi/cm2 1 I ' j Data from' The Effects of Nuclear Weopons A l n i t i a l Nucleor Radiation

A ,-- - . - 1 i i ; exceDt where noted

Ground Range, mi

Fig. 1 2 4 o m p a r a t i v e range-yield effects relationships f o r Hiroshima 12.5-kt burst at 1870 f t (570 meters) above sea-level terrain.

signif icance of the changing r a t io of the m a j o r effects with range ,

one needs t o contemplate a t l e a s t two o the r quest ions; namely, (1)

at what l eve l s do the m a j o r envi ronmenta l var ia t ions depicted in

F i g u r e s 12 and 13 become damaging and haza rdous ? and (2) how

and by what amount a r e the effects p a r a m e t e r s shown a l t e r e d

under "non-free-f ie ld" conditions ? The answer to the second

quest ion r a i s e s m a j o r diff icul t ies and t a s k s s i m i l a r to those the

Ichiban sc i en t i s t s have worked on fo r o v e r a decade and which wi l l

occupy many competent people fo r y e a r s ahead.

could be answered if app ropr i a t e c r i t e r i a w e r e a t hand.

tentat ive though quite incomplete c r i t e r i a have been formula ted ,

they wi l l be presented below.

The f i r s t question

Since

5.3 Tentative Biomedical Criteria

The tentat ive h a z a r d s a s s e s s m e n t c r i t e r i a avai lable a r e

shown in Table 3 fo r

in Table 4 f o r b las t -energ ized m i s s i l e s , in Table 5 fo r whole-body

d isp lacement , in Table 6 for t h e r m a l rad ia t ion , and in Table 7 for

f a s t " - r i s ing o v e r p r e s s u r e s of "long"-duration,

34

Fig. 1 3 4 o m p a r a t i u e range-yield effects relationships f o r Nagasaki 22-ht burst at 1640 f t (500 meters) above sea-leuel terrain.

penetrat ing nuc lear radiat ions.

the c r i t e r i a , somewhat as i l lus t ra ted in F i g u r e 6 for p r i m a r y b l a s t

effects , t o e a c h of the a p p r o p r i a t e c u r v e s in F i g u r e s 12 and 13. A s

noted previously this wil l b e a r d i r e c t l y only upon "free-f ie ld" ex-

posures .

c r i t e r i a i s s h a r p l y l imited, but the ranges inside which the potent ia l

exists f o r a given type of damage can be rat ional ly specified.

ta inly i t is c l e a r that whether o r not in jury o c c u r s wil l depend

cr i t ica l ly upon the detai led conditions of exposure .

equally obvious that a n impor tan t quest ion h a s b e e n posed; namely,

how does one u s e b iomedica l c r i t e r i a u n d e r "non-free -field" con-

di t ions ? The a n s w e r , of c o u r s e , is first t o l e a r n how, given the

"free -field" p a r a m e t e r s , t o specify the envi ronmenta l v a r i a t i o n s

that wi l l occur at inhabited locat ions w h e r e v e r they m a y be, and

second, i f the c r i t e r i a ava i lab le a r e not a p p r o p r i a t e t o t h e kinds and

combinat ions of known v a r i a t i o n s , then one des igns and c a r r i e s out invest igat ions t o remedy the deficiency.

i t e m s among those who would advance the understanding of n u c l e a r

effects .

With a l i t t le thought one can employ

However , f o r "non-free-f ie ld ' ' conditions, u s e of the

C e r -

It should be

These should b e high pr ior i ty

35

TABLE 3

TENTATIVE BIOMEDICAL CRITERIA FOR DIRECT (PRIMARY)

BLAST E F F E C T S I N YOUNG ADULTS APPLICABLE TO "FAST"-RISING,

"LONG"-DURATION OVERPRESSURES IN AIR

AMBIENT PRESSURE: 14.7 PSI

(REVISED FROM R E F E R E N C E 17)x:

O v e r p r e s s u r e in P s i f o r Different Orientat ions

E a r d r u m Rupture Threshold 50 P e r Cent

5 . 0 2 .3 15-20 6.3-8. 0

Lung Damage T h r e s hold 10-12 4 .4-5 .4 9-10

Lethal i ty Threshold 33-50 12-17 23-31 50 P e r Cent 50-76 17-24 3 1-43 N e a r 100 P e r Cent 76-115 24-33 43-60

Pe: Maximum effective o v e r p r e s s u r e , which m a y be

( a ) the m a x i m u m ref lected o v e r p r e s s u r e if the subject is against a ref lect ing s u r f a c e ,

the incident m a x i m u m o v e r p r e s s u r e plus the assoc ia ted maximum dynamic p r e s s u r e f o r f r e e s t r e a m exposure i f the long ax is of the subjec t is perpendicular to the d i rec t ion of t r a v e l of the b las t wave,

the incident m a x i m a l o v e r p r e s s u r e f o r f r e e s t r e a m exposure i f the long ax is of the subjec t i s p a r a l l e l t o the direct ion of t r a v e l of the b l a s t wave.

(b)

( c )

: The incident m a x i m u m o v e r p r e s s u r e , which would re f lec t a t n o r m a l 'ir .

Pif: The incident m a x i m u m o v e r p r e s s u r e , which when added to the a s s o c i -

incidence to the indicated m a x i m u m effective o v e r p r e s s u r e , Pe.

ated m a x i m u m dynamic p r e s s u r e , r e s u l t s in a total o v e r p r e s s u r e equal t o the indicated m a x i m u m effective o v e r p r e s s u r e , pe *

%Data f r o m Zaleweski;35 Hirsch;36 Richmond e t al. ; 20 Bowen e t al. ;37 and White e t a l . 1 8 ~ 3 8

TABLE 4

TENTATIVE CRITElUA FOR INDIRECT BLAST E F F E C T S

INVOLVING SECONDARY MISSILES

(Reproduced f r o m Reference 18)

Kind of

Miss i le

C r i t i c a l Organ o r

Event

Re la te d Impact

Velocity f t / s e c

Nonpe ne t ra t ing 10-lb object C e r e b r a l Concussion:*

Most ly "safe" Threshold

Skull F r a c t u r e : * Most ly "safe"' Threshold N e a r 100 p e r cent

10 15

10 15 2 3

Penet ra t ing 1 0 - g m glass Skin Lace ration:$ f r a g m e n t s Threshold 50

S e r i o u s Wounds :+ Threshold 100

N e a r 100 p e r cent 300 50 p e r cent 180

*:Data f r o m L i s s n e r and Evans ;39 Zuckerman and Black;40 Gurdjian,

+Data f r o m Bowen e t a l . ;42 Goldizen e t a l . ;43 and White e t al . ;l4J W e b s t e r and Lissner . 41

f i g u r e s r e p r e s e n t i m p a c t veloci t ies with unclothed sk in , a r b i t r a r i l y defined a s a lacera t ion of the skin with m i s s i l e penetrat ion into the t i s s u e s to depth of 1 0 mm o r m o r e .

A s e r i o u s wound

It is appropr ia te t o note that the inadequacies of the c r i t e r i a

s e t for th in Tables 3 t o 7 a r e fully apprec ia ted ; they a r e deficient,

c r u d e , and r e p r e s e n t only f r a g m e n t a r y s a m p l e s of the e n t i r e h a z a r d s

fabr ic needed t o a s s e s s the b iomedica l implicat ions of immedia te

nuc lear effects . The c r i t e r i a m u s t be and wi l l b e extended and i m -

proved, They a re offered in the hope tha t the inadequacies plainly

apparent wil l s t imula te a wide segment of the scientific community

t o m a k e posit ive contr ibut ions.

a r e usefu l if employcd proper ly and c a r e should be taken t o s e e tha t

In the m e a n t i m e the c r i t e r i a a t hand

37

TABLE 5

TENTATIVE CRITERIA FOR INDIRECT (TERTIARY)

BLAST E F F E C T S INVOLVING IMPACT

(Revised f r o m Reference 18) ~

Condition C r i t i c a l Organ Related Impact

o r Velocity Event f t l s e c

Standing Stiff-legged Impact:::

Most ly safe"

No significant effect <8 ( ? )

S e v e r e d i s c o m f o r t 8 - 10

I n j u r y

T h r e shold

F r a c t u r e t h r e s hold ( h e e l s , fee t and legs)

10 - 12

13 - 16

Seated Impact :::

Most ly "safe"

No effect <8 ( ? )

S e v e r e d i s c o m f o r t 8 - 14

I n j u r y

T h r e s hold

t Skull F r a c t u r e

15 - 26

Most ly "safe"

T h r e s hold

50 p e r cent

N e a r 100 per cent

Tota l Body I m p a c t '

Most ly safe"

Letha l i ty t h r e s hold

Letha l i ty 50 p e r cent

Le tha l i ty n e a r 100 p e r cent

10

13

18

23

10

21

54

138

~ ~~~~

*:Data f r o m D r a e g e r , B a r r , Dunbar, Sager and S h e l e ~ n y a k ; ~ ~ Black, Chr is topherson and Zuckerman;45 Swearingen, McFadden, G a r n e r and Blethrow;46 Hirsch;47 and Eiband. 48

+Data f r o m Gurdjian, Webs ter and L i s s n e r ; 4 1 Zuckerman and Black. 40 tData f r o m Lewis , Lee and G ~ - a h a r n ; ~ y Richmond e t a l . ;50 and Jones e t

al. 2 1

38

TABLE 6

'TENTATIVE BIOMEDICAL CRITERIA FOR THERMAL RADIAT1ON:I:

C r i t i c a l event T h e r m a l radiat ion in c a l / c m f o r indicated explosive yield

2 0 kt 100 kt 1 Mt 1 0 M t 2 0 Mt

First d e g r e e burn 2 . 5 3 4

Second d e g r e e n burn 4 . 5 5 6.5 9 10

Lightly clothed ( s u m m e r )

Few i f any i n j u r i e s 2 . 5 3 4

Significant in jury

Lethal i ty

threshold 4 4 . 5 6 8. 5 9.5

Threshold 5 6 . 0 8 10.0 11

N e a r 50 p e r cent 9 11.0 1 4 18. 0 2 0

cent 2 0 2 4 31 40 43 N e a r 100 p e r

B u r n s due t o hot d e b r i s No biological c r i t e r i a avai lable ,

and hot, dust- laden a i r . but probably a s e r i o u s p r o b l e m

f o r la rge-y ie ld explosions.

*ENW, 1962; l Oughterson and W a r r e n , 1 9 5 6 ; l o P r o j e c t Harbor ;32 DASA- 1462.16

Note: Immedia te surv iva l in s o m e J a p a n e s e buildings w a s n e a r 90 p e r cent even though the outdoor, "free-f ie ld ' ' t h e r m a l flux ranged f r o m 50 t o 100 c a l / c m 2 .

they a r e not misappl ied by e i t h e r heal th and safety people in in-

d u s t r y o r ana lys t s i n t e r e s t e d in nuc lear effects. In th i s r e g a r d

the r e a d e r is r e f e r r e d t o the r e f e r e n c e s given. T h e s e wi l l a l s o

he lp e m p h a s i z e that, though m a n y rev is ions in the n u m e r i c a l da ta

lie ahead, it is impor tan t t o know tha t only a multi tude of sound

contr ibut ions c a n broaden and i m p r o v e the validity of what is now

at hand.

6 DISCUSSION

What h a s b e e n presented h e r e h a s b e e n l imited t o the n a t u r e

of the p r o b l e m s encountered in a t tempting t o e s t i m a t e c a s u a l t i e s

39

r

TABLE 7

TENTATIVE BIOMEDICAL CRITERIA

FOR PENETRATING NUCLEAR RADIATIONS*

Cr i t i ca l event Dose in r a d s f o r whole-

body exposure:'<*<

No d i sce rnab le immedia te effects 50

Sickness dose:

Thresho ld 100

Acceptable "emergency" dose 200f

Lethal i ty:

Threshold 200f

Near 50 p e r cent 450

Near 100 p e r cent 1000

*National Commit tee on Radiation P ro tec t ion and M e a s u r e m e n t s Repor t No. 2 9 , August 1962. 51

of a few seconds to brief ones of up to four days.

f i gu re m a y be taken a s 250 r.

if r ecove ry o c c u r s at all, i t i s c l e a r that the p r o c e s s i s prolonged and for planning pu rposes , i t i s bes t to ignore the r ecove ry p r o c e s s fo r doses in e x c e s s of 250 r.

*<*The f igu res apply to doses accumula ted f rom immedia te exposures

+If the exposure i s p ro t r ac t ed , longer than four days , t h i s

Note: The equivalent res idua l dose (ERD) i s uncer ta in in m a n and

f r o m immedia te nuc lear effects .

t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l o ther r e a s o n s for th i s . Four wi l l now be noted.

First, a s impor tan t a s i n t e rmed ia t e and la te effects admit tedly a r e ,

the w r i t e r has had only a l i t t le exper ience with fallout and o ther

delayed consequences of nuc lear explosions.

m o r e qualified m u s t speak t o t h e s e m a t t e r s .

Beyond those a l r eady mentioned,

The re fo re o thers

Second, su rv iva l needs be cons idered a s tepwise p r o c e s s tha t

ini t ia l ly r equ i r e s living fo r mi l l i seconds , seconds and minutes be - fo re su rv iva l f o r hours , days, and weeks can be r ea l i s t i ca l ly con-

s idered .

in th i s o rde r .

P r i o r i t i e s in a s s e s s i n g casua l t i e s should be ass igned

40

/

Thi rd , the e a r l y effects have been neglected all too long.

The concent ra t ion of population in the cities and urban complexes

of t h i s country, along with the abi l i ty of avai lable , v e r y high-yield

nuc lea r devices - o r mul t ip le s m a l l e r ones f o r tha t m a t t e r - t o place

l a r g e a r e a s a t r i sk , i s a potent r e a s o n fo r wanting to focus at tent ion

on m a t t e r s of s ignif icance t o what might be the ma jo r i ty and not the

minor i ty of ou r population.

Four th , the highly haza rdous c h a r a c t e r of the immedia te effects

needs emphasizing a s one m e a n s among m a n y of urging tha t m o r e

and increas ing at tent ion be d i r ec t ed to prophylaxis in g e n e r a l and

t o prevent ion of casua l t i e s spec i f ica l ly ; ce r t a in ly , this is a much m o r e des i r ab le c o u r s e than learn ing b e t t e r how t o e s t i m a t e t h e m

and then c a r e fo r those whose in jury o c c u r r e d because " soc ie ty f1

c a r e d m o r e about rocke t s , m i s s i l e s and the backs ide of the moon

than per forming r ea l i s t i ca l ly on the su r face of the ea r th .

T h e diff icul t ies and complexi t ies of the m a n y problems faced

by all i n t e re s t ed in improving the understanding of nuc lea r e f fec ts

and the i r many impl ica t ions should t h e r e be a nuc lea r w a r of ten

s e e m overwhelming and even fr ightening.

and p r o g r e s s t a k e s s o long.

however , to know tha t a l r eady the tentat ive c r i t e r i a tha t have been

developed through biological s tud ies of the consequences of exposure

t o high-yield explos ives have been usefu l in m a n y segmen t s of o u r

society. The range-safe ty manuals at mis s i l e - l aunch s i t e s c a r r y

the avai lable da t a .

and o the r "detonable" products , such as high p r e s s u r e cy l inde r s

and bo i l e r s , employ the documented da ta as safe ty c r i t e r i a t o

guide des ign of work s p a c e s and t o formula te operat ing p rocedures

tha t emphas ize safe ty and min imize the chances of s e r i o u s t r a u m a .

The work on combined effects under way p r o m i s e s to shed l ight

upon in ju r i e s occur r ing a t high speeds on the highway and among

s e r v i c e m e n in Viet N a m .

body s y s t e m s t o s e v e r e and mult iple stress is f a r f r o m understood.

Indeed they wi l l not be un le s s a m a j o r e f for t c a n be mounted i n

th i s port ion of the r e s e a r c h f ron t i e r .

New da ta c o m e slowly

In the mean t ime it is hear ten ing ,

Those who manufac tu re and use explos ives

In r ea l i t y the t i m e r e sponse of the m a j o r

T h e s e f ac t s give r e a s o n enough t o move ahead with the physical ,

b iophysical and b iomedica l s tud ies of nuc lea r - re la ted envi ronmenta l

va r i a t ions .

w a r , and with the sagac i ty and wisdom t o apply what is l ea rned ,

They wi l l be useful even i f we do not have a nuc lea r

41

the products of r e s e a r c h might not keep the peace, might not s a v e

the c i t i e s , but they might save our l ives s o we, along with the nation,

could surv ive .

7 SUMMARY

A . I- The need for dist inguishing between " f ree -field" e n v i r o n -

m e n t a l var ia t ions which follow a high-yield explosion and

those that occur a t "non-free-f ie ld ' ' locations I&& e m p h a -

s ized, by cit ing pos t -war e x p e r i m e n t s a t the -Neva-da--Tes-.---

Site and-wa.r -expe r-i.enee-irom-- Japan indicating- that-among

the m a n y var iab les influencing surviva.1, the conditions of

9

';,/ ,*! exposure e m e r g e d a s c r i t i c a l d e t e r m i n a n t s .

B..- --.Zhu.s i n addition t o such fac tors a s design, yield, range ,

b u r s t height, weather and b a r o m e t r i c p r e s s u r e all of which

influence scal i qg the "free-f ie ld" p a r a m e t e r s , or ientat ional

and posit ional a s wel l a s g e o m e t r i c f a c t o r s bear ing upon

the conditions of exposure along with the physical i n t e r -

act ion responsible for t rans la t iona l events involving both

d e b r i s and m a n , m u s t all be c o n s i d e r e d in es t imat ing

c a s u a l t i e s . \ T.h,~s-_is._s.o-becaus,e-i,t -is- ne'ce-s sa"ry.-to know

that e nv-i.,r,onme nt a-l vaz.ia t.i.o,n s-oo,~~~r-~~-.a.Fl.-. in habit e d 1 oca t i on s

whe3kver they m a y be.

,

G - addition t o such physically or iented information, - t h e r e

is a needil--for d o s e - r e s p o n s e da ta for s ingle effects and combinat ions of environmental s t r e s s e s , which information

--k.

'\ biomedica l c r i t e r i a f o r h a z a r d s a s s e s s m e n t . Until t h e

is b a s i c t o formulat ing final.ized v e r s i o n s of the tentat ive \ --<... ..7. . '<, physical a s wel l a s the b iomedica l informati.on i s adequate ,

the n u m b e r s , kinds, s e r i o u s n e s s and distribution'of i n j u r i e s

f r o m nuclear explosives c a n h a r d l y b e specified.

Tentat ive biomedical c r i t e r i a c u r r e n t l y avai lable w e r e p r e -

sented and t h e i r uti l i ty a s wel l a s t h e i r def ic iencies w e r e

..., \ Q j i $I.

/# ' ' +J 4 I (y-."( /..' /if

1 ) j.- i I ,; f. *,: .,? ,: f ' . ..%--.-->** ->J..-..""l.- .

: , A .,,: discussed . *- '-..:

k..d@ '"-E. "Free- f ie ld" range -effects d i a g r a m s f o r se lec ted y ie lds

w-e$.e p r e s e nt e d ,to i llu s,t-r.at e ia valid- u s.e -of the . G rite ria. -to-

assess-uns-hielded s i tuat ions in the open and t o specify the

ranges inside which the potential f o r a specif ied in jury

might exist under "non - f ree -field" conditions ; however ,

42

it was noted such a p rocedure alone c a n s a y nothing

of the casua l ty cu rves a t the c l o s e r , /' range.s.

F. Range-yield-effects c u r v e s a c r o s s a yield s p e c t r u m f r o m

1 kt t o 2 0 Mt w.ere presented . The nonpara l le l c h a r a c t e r

of the s e v e r a l c u r v e s w a s pointed out. This fac t , and

the a s s o c i a t e d changing r a t io s of the m a j o r " f ree- f ie ld"

effects with yield and ranges , w e r e nofed a s prohibi t ive

cons t r a in t s in scal ing the Japanese casua l ty expe r i ence

to lower and pa r t i cu la r ly t o h igher yields'.

Surv iva l - range c u r v e s under a v a r i e t y of exposure con-

diti'ons fo r H i rosh ima and Nagasaki w e r e c i ted f r o m the

r ecen t l i t e r a t u r e a s w e r e newly avai lable b u r s t heights

and y ie lds fo r the Hi rosh ima and Nagasaki explosions of

help s c a l e the"4free-field" p a r a m e t e r s a s soc ia t ed with

the 50 - p e r cen t su rv iva l r anges f o r s e v e r a l exposure

condi t ions. The wide va'riation in the va lues obtained

fo r the m a j o r effect$.were pointed out t o emphas ize the '\ need f o r m o r e infoi-mation axbout "non-free -field" v e r s u s

\

\ G .

\\

',

\ 12 . 5 and 2 2 \ t t , respec t ive ly . Such da ta w e r e used to

\ :\ '

Y,

"free-f ie ld" exposure /<' conditions \ an> fo r m o r e data f r o m /-

which t o form'ulate improved b iomedica l c r i t e r i a fo r

r e a l i s t i c combinat ions of effects occur r ing a t the occupied

locat ions of i n t e re s t .

/ .

H. The r e m a r k a b l e success of the Ichiban P r o g r a m - init iated I

in 1956 and a imed a t determining/ , f r o m adequate "free-

field" informat ion , quant i ta t ively the rad ia t ions in a i r , and i f r o m appropr i a t e shielding da ta , I ,the rad ia t ion exposure

I / of s u r v i v o r s in Japan - w a s c i ted a s a n example of a re -

m a r k a b l e contr ibut ion t o envizonmenta l medic ine . Work

under way t o extend the ana4ys'is t o the o ther m a j o r e f fec ts

was mentioned and a n acce le ra t ed e f for t w a s urged .

A / I

/

I. The physical ly - and b iomedica l ly - or ien ted p rob lem a r e a s

w e r e del ineated t o he lp conceptual ize the informat ion s y s t e m

needed by those who would, th rough a quant i ta t ive da t a

f ab r i c , improve the understanding of nuc lea r effects . The

e s sen t i a l i t y of a co l labora t ive effor t among physical ly ,

biophysical ly and b iomedica l ly or ien ted ta lent t o obtain

43

the da ta b a s e f o r improving and extending the s y s t e m w a s

emphas ized .

J. P r o g r e s s in the past h a s been such tha t it w a s now c o n -

s i d e r e d "time" t o take effects da ta "out of the s t r e e t s " and

"into" the a t t i c s , b a s e m e n t s , and in te rmedia te f loors of

h o m e s and c o m m e r c i a l s t r u c t u r e s ; and into tunnels , t r a i n s ,

vehic les , and all o ther exposure s i t e s and conditions of

i n t e r e s t t o the end tha t c a s u a l t y e s t i m a t e s m a y not only

b e m a d e ra t iona l and r e a l i s t i c , but tha t the need f o r p r a c -

t icing prevent ion through protect ive cons t ruc t ion wi l l be

judged a w i s e and n e c e s s a r y way of bringing balance b e -

tween m e d i c a l needs and capabi l i t i es in c a s e of a m a j o r

d i s a s t e r .

REFERENCES

1.

2.

3 .

4.

5.

6 .

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F l e t c h e r , E. R., R. W. Albright, R. F. D. P e r r e t , M. E. Frankl in , 1. G. Bowen and C. S. White, "Nuclear Bomb Effects Computer (Including Slide-Rule Design and Curve F i t s f o r Weapons Effec ts ) , I ' USAEC Civi l Effects T e s t Opera t ions Repor t , CEX-62.2, Office of Technical S e r v i c e s , Depar tment of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C. , F e b r u a r y 15, 1963.

Rober t s , J. E . , C. S. White and T. L. Chiffelle, "Effects of O v e r - p r e s s u r e s in Group Shel te rs on Animals and Dummies , I ' USAEC Civil Ef fec ts T e s t Group Repor t , WT-798, Office of Technical S e r v i c e s , Depar tment of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , Septem- b e r 1953.

White, C. S. , 'I. L. Chiffelle, D. R. Richmond, W. H. Lockyear , I. G. Bowen, V. C. Goldizen, H. W. Mer ide th , D. E. Kilgore, B. B. Longwell, J. T . P a r k e r , F. Sherping and M. E. Cribb, "The Biological Ef fec ts of P r e s s u r e Phenomena O c c u r r i n g Inside Pro tec t ive Shel te rs Following Nuclear Detonation, 'I USAEC Civil E f f e c t s T e s t Group Repor t , WT-1179, Office of Technica l S e r v i c e s , Depar tment of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , October 28, 1957.

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Albright, G. H . , J. C. Ledoux and R. A. Mitchel l , "Evaluat ion of Buried Conduits a s P e r s o n n e l She l t e r s , ' I USAEC Civil Ef fec ts T e s t Group Repor t , WT-1421, Off ice of Technica l Se rv ices , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , Ju ly 14, 1960.

Richmond, D. R . , C. S. White, R. T. Sanchez and F. Sherping, "The Inte r n a l Envi ronment of Unde r g round S t ruc tu re s Subjected to Nuclear Blas t . 11. She l t e r s , USAEC Civil Ef fec ts T e s t Group Repor t , WT-1507, Office of Technica l Serv ices , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washing- ton, D. C . , May 31, 1960.

Ef fec ts on Mice Located in Heavy Concre te

Oughterson, Ashley and Shields W a r r e n ( ed i to r s ) , Medical Effects of the Atomic Bomb in Japan , McGraw-Hil l , New York, 1956.

AUxier, J. A . , J. S. Cheka, F. F. Haywood, T. D. Jones and J. H. Thorngate , "F ree -F ie ld Radiation-Dose Dis t r ibu t ions f r o m the H i r o s h i m a and Nagasaki Bombings, ' I Health Phys . - 1 2 : 425-429, 1966.

White, C. S . , "Biological Blas t Effects , I ' Hear ings before the Special Subcommit tee on Radiation of the Jo in t Commit tee on Atomic Energy , Congres s of the United S ta t e s , Eighty-Sixth C o n g r e s s , First Sess ion on Biological and Envi ronmenta l Ef fec ts of Nuclear W a r , June 22-26, 1959, P a r t 1, pp. 313-372, U. S. Government P r in t ing Office, Washington, D. C . , 1959.

White, C. S. and D. R. Richmond, "B las t Biology, 'I USAEC Tech- n ica l Repor t , TID-5764, Office of Technica l Se rv ices , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , Sep tember 18, 1959. Publ ished in p a r t i n Chap. 63, Cl inical Card iopulmonary Physiology, (R. C. Kory and B. L. Gordon, ed i to r s ) , pp. 974-992, Crune and St ra t ton , Inc . , New York, 1960.

White, C. S., I. G. Bowen, D. R. Richmond and R. L. Corsb ie , "Compara t ive Nuclear Ef fec ts of Biomedical In t e re s t , ' I USAEC Civi l Ef fec ts T e s t Opera t ions Repor t , CEX-58. 8, Office of Tech- n ica l Se rv ices , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , J a n u a r y 12, 1961.

White, C. S . , I. G. Bowen and D. R. Richmond, "The Envi ron- m e n t a l Medica l Aspec ts of Nuclear Blas t , ' I Technica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA- 1341, Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depa r tmen t of Defense, Washington, D. C . , November 1962.

White, C. S. , "Tentative Biological C r i t e r i a f o r A s s e s s i n g Potent ia l H a z a r d s f r o m Nuclear Explosions, I ' Technica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA- 1462, Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depa r tmen t of Defense, Washington, D. C . , December 1963.

White, C. S . , "The Scope of Blas t and Shock Biology and P r o b l e m A r e a s in Relat ing Phys ica l and Biological P a r a m e t e r s , I ' P r o c e e d i n e s of the Conference on Prevent ion of and Pro tec t ion Aeains t Accidental

45

18.

19.

2 0.

21.

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23.

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25.

Explosion 01 hlunit:ons, Fuels and Othc r Hazardous Mixtures , New York Academy of Sc iences , N e w York, October 10-13, 1966. Re- por ted i n Ann. N . Y, Acacl. Sci . =: 89-102, 1968. Also published as Technica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA- 1856, Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depa r tmen t of Defense, Washington, D. C . , October 1966.

White, C. S. , I. G. Bowen and D. R. Richmond, "Biological To le rance to A i r B las t and Related Biomedica l C r i t e r i a , 'I USAEC Civi l E f fec t s T e s t Opera t ions Repor t , CEX-65. 4, Office of Tech- n ica l S e r v i c e s , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , October 18, 1965. (Publ ished in p a r t i n P roceed ings of the Sym- pos ium on Pro tec t ive S t ruc tu res f o r Civi l ian Populat ions, Apri l 19-23, 1965, pp. 41 -54, National Academy of Sc iences- -Nat iona l R e s e a r c h Council , Washington, D. C. )

White, C. S . , I. G. Bowen and D. R. Richmond, "A Compara t ive Analysis of Some of the Immedia te Env i ronmen ta l Ef fec ts a t Hi ro- sh ima and Nagasaki, Heal th Phys . 10: 89-150, 1964. Subsequently published a s USAEC Civi l Effects T e s t Opera t ions Repor t , CEX-63.7, Office of Technica l Se rv ices , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , August 1964.

Richmond, D. R . , E. G. Damon, E. R. F le t che r and I. G. Bowen, "The Relat ionship Between Selected Blast W a v e Parameters and the Response of M a m m a l s Exposed t o A i r Blas t , I' Proceed ings of the Conference on Prevent ion of and P ro tec t ion Against Accidental Explosion of Munitions, Fue l s and Other Hazardous Mix tu res , New York Academy of Sc iences , New York, October 10-13, 1966. Re - por ted i n Ann. N . Y . Acad. Sci. - 1 5 2 : 103-121, 1968. Also pub- l i shed as Technica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA- 1860, Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depa r tmen t of Defense, Washington, D. C . , October 1966.

Jones , R. K . , D. R. Richmond and E. R. F le t che r , "A Reappra i sa l of Man 's To le rance to Ind i r ec t ( T e r t i a r y ) B las t Injury, ' I Minutes of the Eleventh Meet ing of P a n e l N-2 (Blas t , Shock and T h e r m a l ) , Sub- g roup N, The Technical Cooperat ion P r o g r a m (TTCP) , Apr i l 21 -24, 1969. Part 11: Technica l P a p e r s and Di scuss ions , pp. 41-56, Atomic Weapons R e s e a r c h Es tab l i shmen t (AWRE), Fou lness , England, Min i s t ry of Defence, London SWI, October 1969.

Bowen, 1. G. , E. R. F l e t c h e r and D. R. Richmond, "Es t ima te of Man 's To le rance to the D i r e c t Ef fec ts of A i r Blas t , I' Technica l P r o g - ress Repor t , DASA-2113,' Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depar t - m e n t of Defense, Washington, D. C . , October 1968.

Davis , L. Wayne, William L. Bake r and Donald L. S u m m e r s , "Analysis of J apanese Nuclear Casua l ty Data , 'I Repor t No . DC-FR- 1045, The Dikewood Corpora t ion , Albuquerque, New Mexico, Apr i l 1966.

Bowen, I. G . , R. W. Albright, E. R. F l e t c h e r and C. S. White, "A Model Designed to P r e d i c t the Motion of Objects T rans l a t ed by C l a s s i c a l B las t Waves, ' I Civil Ef fec ts T e s t Operat ions, USAEC Repor t CEX-58. 9, June 29, 1961.

Ritchie, R. H. and G. S. Hurs t , "Penet ra t ion of Weapons Radiation: Application to the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Studies , I' Heaith Phys . - 1: 390-404, 1959.

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Auxier , J. A . , J. S. Cheka, H. H. Hubbell , J r . , D. R. Johnson, T . D. Jones , P. T. P e r d u e and J. H. Thorngate , "Ichiban S tud ie s , " Chap. 18, pp. 153-159, Heal th Phys ic s Division Annual P r o g r e s s Repor t f o r Pe r iod Endinc July 31, i965, OEGYL-3649, Oak Ridge Nat ional Labora to ry , Oak Ridge, Tennessee , October 1965.

Auxier , J. A . , "Ichiban: The D o s i m e t r y P r o g r a m f o r Nuc lea r Bomb Surv ivo r s , ' I P roceedings of the Symposium on P ro tec t ive S t r u c t u r e s f o r Civilian PoDulations, Washinqton, 3. C . , Apri l 19-23, 1965. Sponsored by the Subcommit tee on Pro tec t ive S t r u c t u r e s , Ad- v i s o r y Commit tee on Civi l Defense, Nat ional Academy of Sc iences- - National R e s e a r c h Council , Washington, D. C . , 1965.

Auxier , J. A . , J. S. Cheka, G. G. Conn, J. L. Ellis, F. F. Hay- wood, W. R. Hendee, D. R. Johnson, T. D. Jones and J. W. Pos ton . "Dose Distr ibut ion Funct ions f o r J apanese Houses , ' I

Chap. 17, pp. 155-159, Heal th Phvs ic s Division Annual P r o g r e s s Repor t f o r Pe r iod Ending Julv 31, 1964, ORNL-3697, Oak Ridge National Labora tory , Oak Ridge, Tennessee , October 1964.

Auxier , J. A . , J. S. Cheka, F. F. Haywood, H. H. Hubbell , J r . , T . D. J o n e s and D. R. Johnson, "Ichiban Studies , ' I Chap. 21, pp. 185-192, Health Phvs ic s Division Annual P r o g r e s s Repor t f o r Pe r iod Ending Ju ly 31, 1967, ORNL-4168, Oak Ridge National Labora to ry , Oak Ridge, Tennessee , October 1967.

Auxier , J. A . , J. S. Cheka, F. F. Haywood, H. H. Hubbell , J r . , J. E. Jackson , D. R. Johnson, T. D. J o n e s , G. D. K e r r , W. H. Shinpaugh, D. R. Stone and E. B. Wagner , "Dos imet ry f o r Human E x p o s u r e s and Radiobiology, I ' Chap. 2 0 , pp. 231-238, Heal th P h y s - i c s Annual P r o g r e s s Repor t f o r P e r i o d Ending Ju ly 31, 4316, Oak Ridge National Labora tory , Oak Ridge, Tennessee , October 1968.

1968, ORNL-

Auxier , J. A . , W. F. Fox, F. F. Haywood, H. H. Hubbell , Jr. , J. E. Jackson , T. D. Jones , W. H. Shinpaugh, W . S. Snider , D. R. Stone and E. B. Wagner , "Dos ime t ry f o r Human E x p o s u r e s and Radiobiology," Chap. 21, pp. 225-241, Health Phys ic s Division Annual P r o g r e s s Repor t €o r Per iod Endine Julv 31, 1969, ORNL- 4446, Oak Ridge National Labora tory , Oak Ridge, Tennessee , October 1969.

White, C. S., "Notes on Immedia t e Survival . I. Biomedica l P a r a m e t e r s , I ' P r o j e c t H a r b o r Study, National Academy of Sc iences , Woods Hole, Massachuse t t s . Submitted t o the Division of Biology and Medicine of the U. S. Atomic Ene rgy Commiss ion a s a Techni - c a l P r o g r e s s Repor t on Cont rac t AT(29-1)-1242, August 1963 (unpublished ).

White, C. S., "Notes on Immedia te Survival . 11. The Es t ima t ion of A r e a s a t Risk Using Biological C r i t e r i a and Scaled Weapons P a r a m e t e r s , ' I P r o j e c t H a r b o r Study, Nat ional Academy of Sc iences , Woods Hole, Massachuse t t s . Submit ted t o the Division of Biology and Medicine of the U. S. Atomic E n e r g y Commiss ion a s a Techni- c a l P r o g r e s s Repor t on Con t rac t AT(29-1 ) -1242 , September 1963 (unpublished).

Bowen, I. G. , P e r s o n a l Communicat ion, Unpublished Data , AEC Civil E f fec t s P ro jec t , Lovelace Foundation f o r Medica l Educat ion and R e s e a r c h , Albuquerque, New Mexico, 1967.

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Ze i t s ch r i f t fiir Ohrenheilkunde, - 52:

H i r sch , F. G . , "Effects of O v e r p r e s s u r e on the E a r - - A Review, Technica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA- 1858, Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depa r tmen t of Defense, Washington, D. C. , November 1966. -Subsequent ly published in Ann. N.- Y. Acad. Sci. - 152: 147- 162 (October 28) 1968.

Bowen, I. G., E. R. F l e t che r , D. R. Richmond, F. G. H i r s c h and C. S. White, "Biophysical Mechan i sms and Scaling P r o c e d u r e s Applicable in Assess ing Responses of the Thorax Energ ized by A i r - B las t O v e r p r e s s u r e s o r by Nonpenetrat ing Miss i l e s , ' ' Technica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA-1857, Defense Atomic Support Agency, De- p a r t m e n t of Defense, Washington, D. C . , November 1966. Sub- sequent ly published in Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. - 152: 122-146 (October 28) 1968.

White, C. S. , I. G. Bowen and D. R. Richmond, "The Relat ion Between E a r d r u m Fa i lu re and Blast-Induced P r e s s u r e Var ia t ions , ' I Technica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA-2064, Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depar tment of Defense, Washington, D. C. , August 1967. Subsequent ly published in Space Life Sc iences 2: 158-205 (Septem- b e r ) 1970.

L i s s n e r , H. L. and F. G. Evans , "Engineer ing Aspec t s of F r a c - t u r e s , I ' Clin. Orthop. - 8: 310-322, 1958.

Zucke rman , S. and A. N. Black, "The Effec t of Impac t on the Head and Back of Monkeys, ' I Repor t R. C. 124, Min i s t ry of Home Secur - i ty , Oxford, England, August 12, 1940.

Gurdj ian, E. S . , J. E. Webster and H. L. L i s s n e r , "Studies on Skull F r a c t u r e with P a r t i c u l a r Reference t o Engineer ing F a c t o r s , ' I A m e r . J. Surg. - 78: 736-742, 1949.

Bowen, I. G., D. R. Richmond, M. B. Wetherbe and C. S. White, "Biological Ef fec ts of B las t f r o m Bombs. Pene t r a t ing M i s s i l e s and Some of the Biological Impl ica t ions of Glass F ragmen ted by Atomic Explos ions , ' I USAEC Technica l Re- po r t , AECU-3350, Office of Technica l Se rv ices , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C . , June 18, 1956.

Goldizen, V. C . , D. R. Richmond, T. L. Chiffelle, I. G. Bowen and C. S. White, "Miss i le Studies with a Biological Ta rge t , USAEC Civil Effects T e s t Group Repor t , WT-1470, Office of Tech- nical Se rv ices , Depa r tmen t of C o m m e r c e , Washington, D. C., J a n u a r y 23, 1961.

D r a e g e r , R. H. , J. S. B a r r , J. Y . Dunbar , W. W. S a g e r and M. C. Shelesnyak, "A Study of P e r s o n n e l In jury by 'Solid Blas t ' and the De s ign and Evaluat ion of P ro tec t ive Devices , I' Repor t No. 1, R e s e a r c h P r o j e c t X-517, Naval Medical R e s e a r c h Inst i - tute , National Naval Medica l Cen te r , Bethesda, Md. , M a r c h 30, 1945.

Glass F r a g m e n t s a s

Black, A. N . , D. G. Chr i s tophe r son and S. Zuckerman, " F r a c - t u r e s of the Head and Fee t , I ' Repor t R. C. 334, Min i s t ry of Home Securi ty , Oxford, England, A.ugust 12, 1942.

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H i r sch , A. E. , "Manls Response t o Shock Motions, I ' David Tay lo r Model Bas in Repor t 1797, Depa r tmen t of the Navy, Washington, D. C . , J a n u a r y 1964.

Eiband, M. A. , "Human To le rance to Rapidly Applied A c c e l e r a - t ions : po r t , MEMO 5-19-59E1 Nat ional Aeronau t i c s and Space Admin i s - t ra t ion , Washington, D. C. , June 1959.

A S u m m a r y of the L i t e r a t u r e , ' I NASA Memorandum Re-

Lewis , W. S . , A. B. Lee and S. A. G r a h a m , ' " J u m p e r s Syn- d r o m e ' - The Tra in ing of High F r e e F a l l a s Seen a t H a r l e m Hos- pi ta l , I ' J. T r a u m a > : 6, 812-818, 1965.

Richmond, D, R. , I. G. Bowen and C. S. White, " T e r t i a r y B las t Ef fec ts : Ef fec ts of I m p a c t on Mice , Rats , Guinea P igs and Rabbi t s , I I Aerospace Med. 3 2 : 789-805 (September ) 1961. Also publ ished a s Techn ica l P r o g r e s s Repor t , DASA- 1245, Defense Atomic Support Agency, Depa r tmen t of Defense, Washington, D. C. , F e b r u a r y 28, 1961.

Anonymous, "Exposure to Radiat ion in a n E m e r g e n c y , ' I National Commi t t ee on Radiation P ro tec t ion and M e a s u r e m e n t s , R e p o r t No. 29, Univers i ty of Chicago, Chicago, I l l inois, August 1962.

49

CIVIL EFFECTS TEST OPERATIONS REPORT SERIES (CEX) Through its Division of Biology and Medicine and Civil Effects Test Operations, the Atomic Energy Commission conducts technical tests, exercises, surveys. and research directed primarily toward practical applications of nuclear effects information and toward encouraging better technical, professional, and public understanding and utilization of the facts useful in the design of countermemres against weapons effects. These studies do not require nuclear detonations. A partial list o f reports on completed studies follows. These reports are available from the National Technical Information Service, U. S. Deparanent of Commerce, Springfield, Va. 22151.

CEX-58.1, Experimental Evaluation of the Radiation Protection Afforded by Residential Structures Against Distributed Sources, 1959.

CEX-58.7, AEC Group Shelter, AEC Facilities Division, 1960. CEX-58.8, Comparative Nuclear Effects of Biomedical Interest, 1961. CEX-58.9, A Model Designed t o Predict the Motion of Objects Translated by

Classical Blast Waves, 1961. CEX-59.1. An Experimental Evaluation of the Radiation Protection Afforded

by a Large Modem Concrete Office Building. 1960. CEX-59.7B (PL I ) , Experimental Radiation Measrements in Conventional

Structures. Part 1. Radiation Measurements in Two TwoStory and Three O n e s t o r y Typical Residential Structures Before and After Modification. 1966.

CEX-59.76 (Pt. II), Experimental Radiation Measurements in Conventional Structures. Part 11. Comparison of Measurements in Above-Ground and Below-Ground Structures from Simulated and Actual Fallout Radiation, 1964.

CEX-59.76 (Pt. Ill), Experimental Radiation Measurements in Conventional Structures. PartI11. The Attenuation of Air-Scattered Radiation in a

Basement, 1965. CEX-59.13, Experimental Evaluation of the Radiation Protection Afforded by

Typical Oak Ridge Homes Against Distributed Sources, 1960. CEX-59.14, Determinations of Aerodynamic-Drag Parameters of Small Irregu-

lar Objects by Means of Drop Tests, 1961. CEX-60.1, Evaluation of the Fallout Protection Afforded by Brookhaven

Nationd Laboratory Medical Research Center, 1961. CEX-60.3, Extended- and Point-Source Radiometric Program, 1962. CEX-60.5, Experimental Evaluation of the Fallout-Radiation Protection

CEX-60.6, Experimental Evaluation of the Radiation Protection Provided by

C E X d l . 1 (Prelim.), Gamma Radiation a t the Air-Ground Interface, 1963. CEX-61.4, Experimenral Evaluation of the Fallout-Radiation Protection

CEX-62.01, Technical Concept-Operation BREN, 1962. CEX-62.2, Nuclear Bomb Effects Computer (Including Slide-Rule Design and

CEX-62.11, Distribution of Weapons Radiation in Japanese Residential

CEX-62.12, Energy and Angular Distribution of Neutrons and Gamma

CEX-62.13, Post Pulse Gamma-Radiation Spectrum-Operation BREN. 1966.

Afforded by a Southwestem Residence, 1962.

an EarthCovered Shelter, 1962.

Provided by Selecred Structures in the Los Angeles Area, 1963.

Cuwe Fits for Weapons Effects), 1963.

Structures, 1965.

Rays-Operation BREN, 1967.

CEX-62.14, An Experimental Investigation o f the Spatial Distribution of Dose

CEX-62.50, Neutron-Field and Induced-Activity Measurements-Operation

CEX62.866. Small Boy Project 62.80b Aeroradioactivity Survey, 1967. CEX-62.80c, Sedan Project 6 2 . 8 0 ~ Aeroradioactivity Survey. 1967. CEX-62.81 (F ind) , Ground Roughness Effects o n the Energy and Angular

CEX-63.3, Barrier Attenuation of Air-Scattered Gamma Radiation, 1965. CEX-63.7. A Comparative Analysis of Some of the Immediate Environmental

CEX-63.10, Design o f a Shielded Source for the Irradiation of Natural Animal

CEX-64.3, Ichiban: The Dosimetry Program for Nuclear Bomb Survivors of

CEX-64.7, Neutron and Gamma-Ray Leakage from the lchiban Cn'tical

CEX-65.01, Feasibility Study- lntcnse 14-Mev Neutron Source for Operation

CEX-65.02, Technical Concept-Operation HENRE, 1965. CEX-65.03, Operations Plan-Operation HENRE, 1965. CEXd5.04, Radiation Output Description from the T(d,n)'He Reaction in a

Large Target (1000 cm2)-Operation IIENRE, 1971. CEX-65.05, Radiation Safety Practices-Operation IIENRE, 1971. CEX-65.4, Biological Tolerance t o Air Blast and Related Biomedical Criteria,

CEX-65.11, Energy and Angular Distribution of Neutrons and Gamma

CEX-65.13, Distribution of Radiation from a 14-Mev Neutron Source in and

CEX-65.60, N a t r o n Spectrometry-Operation HENRE (Program 6), 1969. CEX-65.92, Differential (Measurements of Fast-Neutron Air- Ground Interface

Effects, Projecr 9.2-Operation HENRE, 1971. CEX-68.3, Nuclear Weapons Effects Tests of Blast Type Shelters, A

Documentary Compendium of Test Reports, 1969. CEX-68.4. Radiosensitivity of Certain Perennial Shrub Species Based on a

Srudy of the Nuclear Excavation Experiment, Palanquin. with Other Observations of Effects on the Vegetation, 1969.

CEX-69.5, Experimental Evaluation of the Fallout-Radiation Protection Provided by Structures in the Control Point Area of the Nevada Test Site, 1970.

in an Airaver-Ground Geometry, 1964.

BREN, 1965.

Distribution of Gamma Radiation from Fallout, 1964.

Effects at Hiroshima and Nagaqaki, 1964.

Populations, 1966.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki-A Status Report as of April 1. 1964. 1964.

Assembly, 1966.

HENRE, 1966.

1965.

Rays-Operation BREN. 1969.

near Structures, 1969.