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The Multilateral Donor Chaos
Helmut Reisen, OECD Development Centre
Fall 2008
OECD Development Centre
The multilateral donor chaos
1. Mapping the multilateral development finance non-system
2. Normative & positive explanations of the rising complexity
3. The costs of multilateral chaos
4. Multilaterals & the Millennium Development Goals
5. Toward an efficient role assignment
6. Development Finance in a Deleveraged World
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OECD Development Centre
1. Mapping the multilateral development finance non-system
• Paris Declaration,• 3 HLF Accra 09/08
• I Ownership
• II Alignment
• III Harmonisation
• IV Managing for Results
• V Mutual Accountability
• Multilateral Development Finance
• Neglected in Accra and in Paris Declaration as driven by World Bank & OECD/DCD staff.
• Representation & inclusiveness on radar screen (e.g. IMF reform)
• Neglected: Simplification of non-system
• Need for mapping as 1st step
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OECD Development Centre
Rationale for Mapping Multilateral System
Such mapping identifies • overlaps - leading to reduction of multilateral remit or proposals for
consolidation; • rivalries - leading to clarification of roles; and • absences of co-ordination - leading to the design and implementation of co-
ordinating structure.
• => to help identify areas for consolidation, • => address fragmentation and poor co-ordination at country level,
and • => help identify comparative advantages for institutional role
assignments among multilateral agencies.
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OECD Development Centre
The Current Multilateral Complexity
SectoralFunds and Agencies
World Bank
UNDP
GFATM& other health funds
Global EnvironmentFacility
Others, e.g. Islamic Dev. Bank
NGOs
InternationalNGOs (e.g. Oxfam)
Regionaldevelopment banks
and agenciesUN Specialised
Agencies
National NGOsin donorcountries
National NGOsin developing
countries
MultilateralDonors
Fast Track Initiative/ Education for All
IMF
Public Private
Private Philanthropy
Private Commercial
Sector
DAC donors23 members, including
the European Commission
Other OECDcountries (non-DAC)
Emergingdonors
(e.g. China, India)
BilateralDonors
Bilateral development banks and agencies
Sources (Taxes, Donations and Markets)Sources (Taxes, Donations and Markets)
Beneficiaries (Fragile States, Low Income Countries, Emerging EcBeneficiaries (Fragile States, Low Income Countries, Emerging Economies)onomies)Indicates observer status in DAC.
Foundations such as Gates, Rockefeller,
Ford, Wellcome Trust
Households (e.g. remittances and other
private transfers)
Firms (e.g. foreign direct investment, Corporate Social Responsibility)
Commercial Banks (e.g. loans, export credits, financial guarantees)
Private Investors (e.g. portfolio and equity
investments)
SectoralFunds and Agencies
World Bank
UNDP
GFATM& other health funds
Global EnvironmentFacility
Others, e.g. Islamic Dev. Bank
NGOs
InternationalNGOs (e.g. Oxfam)
Regionaldevelopment banks
and agenciesUN Specialised
Agencies
National NGOsin donorcountries
National NGOsin developing
countries
MultilateralDonors
Fast Track Initiative/ Education for All
IMF
Public Private
Private Philanthropy
Private Commercial
Sector
DAC donors23 members, including
the European Commission
Other OECDcountries (non-DAC)
Emergingdonors
(e.g. China, India)
BilateralDonors
Bilateral development banks and agencies
Sources (Taxes, Donations and Markets)Sources (Taxes, Donations and Markets)
Beneficiaries (Fragile States, Low Income Countries, Emerging EcBeneficiaries (Fragile States, Low Income Countries, Emerging Economies)onomies)Indicates observer status in DAC.
Foundations such as Gates, Rockefeller,
Ford, Wellcome Trust
Households (e.g. remittances and other
private transfers)
Firms (e.g. foreign direct investment, Corporate Social Responsibility)
Commercial Banks (e.g. loans, export credits, financial guarantees)
Private Investors (e.g. portfolio and equity
investments)
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OECD Development Centre
The Current Multilateral ComplexityThe Current Multilateral Complexity
• Selected Multilaterals The CRS Directives for ODA Reporting Instructions list as ODA eligible:23 DAC members with a varying number of agencies47 UN agencies, funds and commissions4 EC bodies 2 IMF trust, 5 World Bank Group bodies12 regional development banks and funds other multilateral institutions (incl. GEF and GFATM)32 international non-governmental organisationsand 5 main public-private partnerships
.
Source:The Economist5th July 2008
Number of staff
Budget$ bn, 2007
World Bank(IDA/IBRD)
10,000 (+ IFC staff)
(2.1) 26.8
IMF 2,500 0.9
WFPFAOIFAD
10,600 3,600 430
3.0 0.8 0.1
UNDPUNCTADUNIDO
5,300 450 650
4.9 0.1 0.2
UNESCO 2,100 0.7
WHOGFATM
8,000 450
1.6 0.2
AfDB 1,500 0.2
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OECD Development Centre
Proliferation of International Organisations- IOs by founding decade and sector-
• 263 IOs are ODA eligible in 2008 (no info for 13!!).• Before Bretton Woods (1944) and UN (1945), only 15.• High fragmentation in health sector: 34 IOs. • Source:DAC Report on Multilateral Aid, 2008 7
OECD Development Centre
Proliferation & Size
• Core & non-core funding commitments, 2006
• Total: $ 43 bn; of which• 2/3 for 5: EC, IDA,
GFATM, ADB, AfDB• 100 agencies < $ 20 mn/yr• Source: DAC Report on Multilateral Aid, 2008
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OECD Development Centre
Normative & positive explanations of the rising complexity
Normative• Multilateral instruments needed for a global
response to:
• climate change; food ,water & energy shortages;
• rising disparities between the world’s richest and poorest countries;
• terrorism, ethnic conflict, and social fragmentation;
• financial risk, the threat of protectionism, and job insecurity.
• Unilateral action fails because each country has an incentive to under-reveal demand for a nonexcludable good (Buchanan 1968).
• Undersupply of public goods if each member state reduces expenditures as allies increase theirs (Olson and Zeckhauser 1966).
Positive• A public choice analysis of voters’ behavior :
fiscal illusion & majority voting explain inadequate finance for international cooperation.
• Two-stage principal-agent problem:
• Multilaterals receive more aid money when populations’ support for aid low (Milner 2005).
• Bureaucrats take advantage of asymmetric information in requesting annual budgets greater than optimal from a taxpayer perspective (Niskanen 1971).
• Agency slippage has a tendency to increase with the number of principals (Olson1965).
• Development agencies can’t control big organisations such as the World Bank as the bilateral to multilateral staff ratio is too low.
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OECD Development Centre
Net debt flows to developing countries, % of net capital flows
•IMF, World Bank and development banks crowded out of international lending by a decade of abundant bank credit.
•In strong contrast to rising complexity.
•Any other financial institution with those results might be wound down.
•Recipients complain about “the cost of doing business” (a term borrowed from IFC) with multilaterals: paperwork, standards, PRSPs.
•Yet the IFI’s shrunken loan book may soon be a big asset –as countries’ own balance sheets deteriorate , yet not sufficient.
•Suggestion: Introduce peak-load pricing as holding on to IFIs is akin to electricity utilities,
•Peak-load pricing: ‘costs of doing business’ with IFIs: conditions, benchmarks, rates.
•=> more efficient use of– and lower – IFIs capacity.
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OECD Development Centre
The costs of multilateral chaos
Fragmentation cost is high when LDCs have to deal with a large number of donors that provide a small share of CPA. This may weaken ownership and burden limited institutional capacity.•38 countries had 25 or more multilateral and DAC donors in 2005-06.
•Highest potential to focus aid is in the 35countries, where 9 or more IOs are providing cumulatively less than 10%of a country’s total aid.
•Fragmentation is reduced when a donor provides above its average share of global CPA to more of its partners.Source: OECD/DAC, AID FRAGMENTATION, AID ALLOCATION AND AID PREDICTABILITY, 2008
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OECD Development Centre
Donor fragmentation and bureaucratic quality
• In principle, competition is to be welcomed as it undermines donor cartels, which should be good news for recipients.
But: Donor fragmentation is associated with low-quality administrations in recipient countries. One explanation: the best are poached away from local bureaucracies to work for donor projects.
→ Aid agency competition may be fine, but bundle service delivery on the ground.
Source: 'Donor Fragmentation and Bureaucratic Quality in Aid Recipients', Journal of Development Economics, 2007, 83: 176-197
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OECD Development Centre
MDGs: Multilaterals claim a role in their annual reports, but none is accountable.
(Convenient excuse: problems are home-made; but then what role for mutilaterals?)
• Unclear institutional assignments to the MDGs
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OECD Development Centre
Multilateral fragmentation
• Scope for more country focus
•Table shows multilaterals with least country focus.
•A high percentage indicates that the agency’s co-operation programme is more concentrated.
• Top level of concentration ( 100% )for regional agencies such as IDB.
•Country overlap is most striking in Central Asia (IDA, EBRD, EIB, IMF, CE...).
•Aim:focus on fewer partners while playing a bigger role in each and concentrating on fewer sectors in each partner country.
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OECD Development Centre
Multilaterals Effectiveness- Paris Declaration (2008) -
• 3 = Alignment, i.e. % of aid flows reported in partner budgets• 4 = Capacity strengthening, i.e. % of provided through coordinated programmes• 5 = Use of country's financial management (5a) and procurement (5b) systems• 6 = No. of paralel project implementation units• 7 = Predictability, i.e. % of aid disbursed during the scheduled year• 9 = Use of common arrangements & programmes• 10= Shared analysis (% field missions, analytical work) 15
OECD Development Centre
Multilaterals Effectiveness-Other self-driven assessments-
• MOPAN: The Multilateral Organisations Performance Assessment Network was created in 2002
• as a network of like-minded donor countries.
• The Survey is based on the perceptions of MOPAN member embassies or country offices, arising from their day-to-day contacts with multilateral organizations .
• The MOPAN Annual Survey is not an evaluation and does not cover actual results on the ground.
• Avoids inter-agency comparisons => no basis for inter-agency decision making.
• Approach does not allow to draw firm conclusions about effectiveness.
• COMPAS: – The Common Performance
Assessment System
– The purpose of the COMPAS is to provide a common source of information on the results orientation of 5 MDBs – AfDB, AsDB, EBRD, IADB, WB.
– Focus on group synergies and not on individual comparisons across institutions, => not built to enhance inter-agency choice and multilateral coherence.
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OECD Development Centre
Multilateral Assessment Frameworks → Performance
measures may help improve multilaterals' performance, hence raise x-efficiency,
but they will not improve multilateral coherence, i.e. allocative efficiency for donor funds.
Performance vs Coherence
MDG A
MDG B
1
23
4
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OECD Development Centre
Toward Efficient Role Assignment
• Tinbergen Role Assignment: to achieve conomic goals effectively, there must be at least as many policy instruments at the disposal of the authorities, as there are policy targets to be met.
• Literature: Tinbergen (1952), Theil (1961), and Mundell (1962)
• n independent targets of policy => n effective and unbounded instruments of policy if the targets are all to be met.
• Suppose we had two targets, income Y and health H, and two multilateral instruments, IDA soft loans L and health grants G. We then have
• Y = α1L + α2G + A1 (1) • H = α3L + α4G + A2 (2)• A1 and A2 are all other influences on Y and H. If A1 and A2 are
known, L and G can be solved for target values of Y and H. • The instrument that produces the largest absolute change in the
other target is the one that ought to be assigned to that target.
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OECD Development Centre
Toward Efficient Role Assignment
• The Tinbergen Assignment Rule calls for institutional specialisation
• Few countries are on track to meet their MDGs
• Many IOs claim to work on MDGs• => need for accountability• Develop quantitative and qualitiative
measures of IOs' contributions to each of the MDGs to prepare division of labour & responsabilities
• => 1st Step twd Coherence & Accountability for Multilaterals.
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OECD Development Centre 20
6. Development finance in a deleveraged world
Impact of deleveraging• Mid term: push 2/3; pull 1/3
– With global growth down, flows down
– “Hunger for yield’ satisfied
– Time to rebuild bank capital → less bank credit
• FDI picks up post-crises• Helped by SWFs (no debt leverage)?
OECD Development Centre 21
5. Development finance in a deleveraged world
Multilateral ODA:
The Comeback Kids?
• Aid to be curtailed? – Deep slumps vs cycles
• IFIs will crowd back in…• …But will it be enough?• Can Asian FX reserves be leveraged
through IFIs?• Stimulate private-flow insurance Source: OECD Development Centre, based on
World Bank Global Development Finance, 2008.
OECD Development Centre 22
6. Global Governance
• Less reliance on international soft law (EITI, DSF)?• Less influence for Wall Street/City → more regulatory
independence?• Less pro-cyclicality in bank capital regulation • Less relevance for rating agencies
• More emphasis on guarantees and MDBs• More emphasis on G20, less on G8, HDP, etc.• Who represents Small Poor Countries?
OECD Development Centre 23
7. Positive aspects of the global credit crisis?
• Lower fuel & food prices→ More PP for poor, less government subsidies?
• Lower rents → less resource curse?• Less chavismo?• Tax heavens closed?• More intergenerational justice as asset prices go down• More talent allocated to real economy, less to finance