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MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION
NGUYEN TIEN KIEN
Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
The MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting
and
MRC Flash Flood Guidance Systems
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
Outline
1. Operational data for flood forecasting in the RFMMC
2. MRC River Flood Forecasting System
2.1 Unified River Basin Simulation model
2.2 ISIS Hydrodynamic model
2.3 Delft - FEWS
3. MRC Flood Guidance System
4. Conclusions and Individual Plans
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION
1. Operational data for flood forecasting
in the RFMMC
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
• Daily Satellite Rainfall Estimates (SRE)
and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
gridded data
• Daily rainfall manual data from 131
stations (as of May 2009)
• Water level manual data from 49 stations
(12-hrly and daily)
• AHNIP telemetry data (hourly) from 20
stations
• HYCOS telemetry data (15 min) from 34
stations
• GTS rainfall data from 112 synoptic
stations coving the entire Mekong River
Basin
Data Availability
• Daily receiving of hydro-meteorological data from the four riparian
countries:
- telemetry system
- SMS (manual) data
through a software package : HydMet management software
• The HydMet is the primary database management system by
which rainfall and water levels observations are collected from the
riparian countries and collected for use within the new flood
forecasting system.
• The HydMet is installed in the main national line agencies of the
MRC Member Countries and the RFMMC.
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION
2. MRC River Flood Forecasting System
(MRCFFS)
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
URBS
ISIS
Delft – FEWS
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
22 Stations in the mainstream1. Chiang Saen
2. Luang Prabang
3. Chiang Khan
4. Vientiane
5. Nong Khai
6. Paksane
7. Nakhon Phanom
8. Thakhek
9. Mukdahan
10. Savannakhet
11. Khong Chiam
12. Pakse
UR
BS
ISIS
+ R
eg
ress
ion
13. Stung Treng
14. Kratie
15. Kampong Cham
16. Phnom Penh Bassac
17. Phnom Penh Port
18. Prek Kdam
19. Koh Khel
20. Neak Leung
21. Tan Chau
22. Chau Doc
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
Unified River Basin Simulator (URBS)
• Semi-distributed non-linear hydrologic network model
• Ability to model spatial & temporal variability of rainfall
• Specifically tailored for flood forecasting
• Combines:
- rainfall-runoff model
- runoff-routing model
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International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
URBS (con’t)
• 52 URBS models, covering > 740,000 km2
and represented by over 2,217 sub-
catchments, were developed and calibrated:
- 49 runoff routing models are linked together
- 3 channel routing models:
Chiang Saen to Kratie
Tonle Sap system
Kratie to Tan Chau/Chau Doc.
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
ISIS Hydrodynamic Model• ISIS is a generic 1D model for the
simulation of unsteady flow in channel
networks.
• The ISIS model within the FFS starts at
Stung Treng to the South China Sea,
including the Tonle Sap Lake and
Floodplain, the Cambodian floodplains
and the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.
• The extent of downstream boundaries of
the model are at the mouths of the
Mekong (and the West Sea).
• Tributary inflows supplied to the model
are obtained from the URBS.
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
Delft-FEWS
• as a data management and modeling platform.
• FEWS collates rainfall and water level inputs, runs the set of URBS models, manages the model results and publishes the flood forecasts.
• FEWS Stand alone system : data in the database is not shared with others, but whole database can be copied
• FEWS Client-serve (on-line) system:
- central location to do the calculations and to store the data
- users in different offices are connected via RFFMC network,
synchronising with the central database when they need data
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION
3. MRC Flash Flood Guidance System
(MRCFFG)
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
• The MRCFFG system has been developed by the U.S. Hydrologic Research Center (HRC) through a program funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) - Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). Completely set up and installed at the RFMMC in early September, 2009.
• The MRCFFG is designed to provide flash flood guidanceinformation on a small basin scale across the four riparian countries MRC.
• The primary mission of the MRCFFG system is to provide real-time informational guidance products pertaining to the imminence of potential small-scale flash flooding throughout the region of application.
Background
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
• MRCFFGs is a diagnostic system for flash floods to produce
forecasts and ultimately warnings for flash floods.
It is not a predictive system
• The system provides warnings for flash floods from intense
rainfall events through the use of satellite and gauge-based
rainfall estimates.
• A user-friendly interface provides quantitative real-time
diagnostic information that may be used by the forecaster in conjunction with other local forecast information.
MRCFFG System
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
MRCFFG System Design OverviewThe RFMMC receives data
from 4 riparian countries
The products are provided to dedicated national
agencies on the Dissemination Server
These data together with Satellite rainfall data
are processed inside the Computational Server
Various models are applied
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
• to provide organized and convenient access to downloadable
data products for local acquisition
• to facilitate preliminary product review in order to focus
forecaster attention on urgent points of interest relating to
potential flash flooding
• to facilitate the quality control and operational management
efforts of forecasters and system administrators
MRCFFG Dissemination Server User Interface
MRCFFG Operational Output Products
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
Hydroestimator satellite precipitation,
un-biased corrected rainfall for 1, 3, 6, and
24 hour accumulations
HE
Mean areal precipitation for each basin for
1, 3, 6, and 24 hour accumulations based on
bias-corrected satellite rainfall estimates
MAP
Average Soil Moisture
(ASM)
• Soil water saturation fraction for the upper zone of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Model for each of the MRCFFG sub-basins.
• Updated every 6 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
the amount of rainfall of a
given duration (1 – 6 hours)
over a small basin needed to
create minor flooding
(bankfull) conditions at the
outlet of the basin.
Flash Flood Guidance
(FFG)
the amount of rainfall of a
given duration in excess of
the corresponding FFG
value.
The FFT, when used with
existing or forecast rainfall,
is an index that provides an
indication of areas where
flooding is imminent or
occurring and where
immediate action is or will
be shortly needed.
Flash Flood Threat (FFT)
The system can detect the storm activity and
compute the change of soil moisture
The FFG can show potential
critical flash flooding
The system can identify FFT in
some areas
MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION
6. Conclusions and Individual Plans
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
Conclusions• The MRC Mekong FFS is user-friendly, flexible, robust in flood forecasting and
provides a platform for the incorporation of new models.
• The availability and quanlity of both hydrological and meteorological (rainfall) data as inputs for models are highest priority because of deciding factors for forecast result and accuracy.
• Facets of the models and modelling system need to require refinement.
• The RFMMC will maintain and operate the MRCFFG servers.
• Even though the both FFGCS and FFGDS servers are designed to be
fully automated, there will always remain a critical need for ongoing
observation and quality control.
• The RFMMC will be required to perform frequent observations of the MRCFFG system processing to ensure that the system’s automated features are working properly.
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
• Improvement of forecast rainfall by using data from different sources may
provide higher frequency and better accuracy.
• Improvement for model calibration by updating the rating curves and other
parameters at stations along the Mekong mainstream to be supported by
Line Agencies, especially at main forecast stations.
• Since the current system is capable in producing medium-term forecasts up
to 10 days, in advance, forecasts can be made available to a designated
national flood forecasting agencies for their internal uses.
• A second forecast cycle and product dissemination as appropriate during
critical flood conditions should be initiated which would provide valuable
additional information for Member Countries.
• Preparation for MRCFFG implementation during flood season 2010.
Individual Plans
International Training Programme 2010 - Management of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation
China, June17—30, 2010
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
FOR
YOUR ATTENTION