The Middle-Income Transition around the Globe: Characteristics of Graduation and Slowdown

8/9/2019 The Middle-Income Transition around the Globe: Characteristics of Graduation and Slowdown

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MGCA [nrhajk Ympdr _drads

Wed Laggbd-Ajonld Wrmjsatanj mrnujg ted Kbncd6Oemrmotdrastaos n` Krmgumtanj mjg _bnwgnwj

Ymub Pmjgdjcdrk, Babacdte Ynnt,mjg Fd``rdy Laymlntn

Jn. 4=1Lmroe 39=4

Msamj Gdvdbnpldjt Cmjh Ajstatutd


2/41

Wed [nrhajk Ympdr sdrads as m onjtajumtanj n` ted `nrldrby jmldg Gasoussanj Ympdr sdrads8ted julcdrajk n` ted pmpdrs onjtajudg watenut ajtdrruptanj nr oemjkd. MGCA‑s wnrhajkpmpdrs rd`bdot ajatamb agdms nj m tnpao mjg mrd pnstdg njbajd `nr gasoussanj. MGCA djonurmkdsrdmgdrs tn pnst tedar onlldjts nj ted lmaj pmkd `nr dmoe wnrhajk pmpdr (kavdj aj tedoatmtanj cdbnw). _nld wnrhajk pmpdrs lmy gdvdbnp ajtn ntedr `nrls n` pucbaomtanj.

_ukkdstdg oatmtanj6

Pmjgdjcdrk. Y., B. Ynnt., mjg F. Laymlntn. 39=4. Wed Laggbd-Ajonld Wrmjsatanj mrnujg tedKbncd6 Oemrmotdrastaos n` Krmgumtanj mjg _bnwgnwj. MGCA [nrhajk Ympdr 4=1. Wnhyn6 MsamjGdvdbnpldjt Cmjh Ajstatutd. Mvmabmcbd6 ettp6//www.mgca.nrk/wnrhajk-pmpdr/39=4/9?/?=/0455.laggbd.ajonld.trmjsatanj.kbncd/

Ybdmsd onjtmot ted mutenrs `nr aj`nrlmtanj mcnut teas pmpdr.

Dlmab6 pvmjgdjcdrkImgca.nrk, bpnntImgc.nrk, flaymlntnImgca.nrk

Ymub Pmjgdjcdrk as m sdjanr ompmoaty cuabgajk donjnlast mt ted Msamj Gdvdbnpldjt CmjhAjstatutd (MGCA). Babacdte Ynnt as mj donjnlaos n`àodr mt ted Donjnlao Sdsdmroe mjgSdkanjmb Onnpdrmtanj Gdpmrtldjt mt ted Msamj Gdvdbnpldjt Cmjh (MGC). Fd``rdyLaymlntn as m ompmoaty cuabgajk mssnoamtd mt MGCA.

Wed vadws dxprdssdg aj teas pmpdr mrd ted vadws n` ted mutenr mjg gn jnt jdodssmrabyrd`bdot ted vadws nr pnbaoads n` MGCA, ted MGC, ats Cnmrg n` Gardotnrs, nr ted knvdrjldjtstedy rdprdsdjt. MGCA gnds jnt kumrmjtdd ted moourmoy n` ted gmtm ajobugdg aj teas pmpdrmjg moodpts jn rdspnjsacabaty `nr mjy onjsdqudjods n` tedar usd. Wdrlajnbnky usdg lmyjnt jdodssmraby cd onjsastdjt wate MGC n`àoamb tdrls.

[nrhajk pmpdrs mrd sucfdot tn `nrlmb rdvasanj mjg onrrdotanj cd`nrd tedy mrd àjmbazdgmjg onjsagdrdg pucbasedg.

Msamj Gdvdbnpldjt Cmjh AjstatutdHmsulakmsdha Cuabgajk 5@

?-3-4 Hmsulakmsdha, Oeayngm-huWnhyn =99-0995, Fmpmj

Wdb6 +5=-?-?41?-4499@mx6 +5=-?-?41?-44;=TSB6 www.mgca.nrkD-lmab6 aj`nImgca.nrk

© 39=4 Msamj Gdvdbnpldjt Cmjh Ajstatutd


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MGCA [nrhajk Ympdr 4=1 Pmjgdjcdrk, Ynnt, mjg Laymlntn

Mcstrmot

Wed pmpdr ajvdstakmtds ted satumtanj n` laggbd-ajonld donjnlads mrnujg ted wnrbg. _ajod=104, njby =5 donjnlads wate m pnpubmtanj n` lnrd temj ? labbanj mjg jnt gdpdjgdjt nj nabdxpnrts emvd lmgd ted trmjsatanj tn cdajk eake ajonld. Lmjy lnrd emvd jnt cddj mcbd tnlnvd cdynjg ted laggbd-ajonld stmkd. [d onjguot stmtastaomb tdsts n` ga``drdjods cdtwddj

twn krnups n` donjnlads mornss m rmjkd n` krnwte mjg gdvdbnpldjt vmramcbds. Wed rdsubtssukkdst temt laggbd-ajonld donjnlads mrd pmrtaoubmrby wdmh aj ted `nbbnwajk mrdms6knvdrjmjod, aj`rmstruoturd, smvajks mjg ajvdstldjt, ajdqumbaty, mjg qumbaty‗cut jntqumjtaty‗n` dguomtanj. Wed àjgajks mrd usdg tn sukkdst wedtedr ted Ydnpbd‑s Sdpucbao nÒeajm as suoodssùbby prnkrdssajk ternuke ted laggbd-ajonld stmkd nr wedtedr at lmy kdtomuket aj m laggbd-ajonld trmp.

FDB Obmssaàomtanj6 N=7, N??, N79, N4?


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Onjtdjts

=. Ajtrnguotanj ................................................................................................................ ?

3. Yrnguot Oenaod, Wdoejnbnky, mjg Pmbud Oemajs ........................................................ 7

3.= Jmturd n` ted Wrmjsatanj mjg ted Wrmp ............................................................. 7 3.3 @motnrs temt Omj Ajguod m _ea`t ...................................................................... 7

?. [eaoe Donjnlads Mrd Lmhajk m Bnjk Wrmjsatanj> ..................................................... ;

7. Dxpbmajajk Ga``drdjods ............................................................................................... 1

7.= _truoturmb Wrmjs`nrlmtanj ............................................................................. =9 7.3 Dxpnrts mjg @nrdakj Gardot Ajvdstldjt ........................................................ == 7.? Wdoejnbnkaomb Ajjnvmtanj ............................................................................. =3

7.7 Knvdrjmjod mjg Ajstatutanjs ........................................................................ =7 7.4 Lmorndonjnlao _tmcabaty .............................................................................. =0 7.0 @ajmjoamb _ystdl Gdvdbnpldjt .................................................................... =5 7.; _mvajks mjg Ajvdstldjt ............................................................................... 3= 7.5 Ajdqumbaty ..................................................................................................... 33 7.1 Dguomtanj ..................................................................................................... 37 7.=9 Aj`rmstruoturd ................................................................................................ 3;

4. Nvdrmbb Yaoturd ......................................................................................................... ?9

0. Onjobusanjs ............................................................................................................. ?7

Mppdjgax6 Gmtm Mjmbysas ..................................................................................................... ?4

Sd`drdjods ......................................................................................................................... ?;


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=. AJWSNGTOWANJ

Aj 39=9 ted Ydnpbd‑s Sdpucbao n` Oeajm (YSO) cdomld ted sdonjg-bmrkdst donjnly ajted wnrbg. At surpmssdg Fmpmj, weaoe emg edbg temt pnsatanj `nr nvdr 79 ydmrs. Wedlnvd wms snldwemt ajdvatmcbd kavdj cnte ted YSO‑s onjsastdjtby eake krnwte rmtdsnvdr ted ? gdomgds‗ms Fmpmj stmkjmtdg‗mjg ats supdranr sazd aj tdrls n` pnpubmtanjmjg kdnkrmpey. [eabd ted sazd n` ats donjnly as bmrkd, ted YSO as stabb m gdvdbnpajkonujtry wate m lngdst pdr ompatm ajonld. Njby aj ted bmtd =119s gag at krmgumtd `rnlbnw- tn laggbd-ajonld stmtus. Ms at onjtajuds tn dxpmjg, ajordmsajk mttdjtanj as jnw`nousdg nj wedtedr at wabb cdonld m eake-ajonld onujtry bahd sdvdrmb n` ats jdakecnrs ajJnrtedmst Msam nr, ajstdmg, wedtedr at wabb su``dr ted `mtd n` Bmtaj Mldraom mjg_nutedmst Msam cy rdlmajajk mt ted laggbd-ajonld bdvdb n` gdvdbnpldjt `nr gdomgds. Ms ted prdsagdjt n` ted [nrbg Cmjh jntdg, ‒[asd bdmgdrs mjg n`àoambs mrd stmrtajk tnmsh enw Xted Ydnpbd‑s Sdpucbao n`\ Oeajm omj cdst mvnag ted laggbd-ajonld trmp“

(Vndbaoh 39=9).

Aj ted salpbd mrateldtao n` pdr ompatm ajonld moonujtajk, m onujtry lnvds up tedajonld bmggdr cy ajordmsajk ted vmbud n` wemt at prnguods mt m `mstdr pmod temjpnpubmtanj krnwte. _ustmajdg ajordmsds nvdr sdvdrmb gdomgds mbbnw m onujtry tn lnvdtn m eakedr onujtry ajonld obmssaàomtanj. Onujtrads lnvd `rnl bnw tn laggbd ajonld cylmhajk m struoturmb trmjsatanj `rnl mkraoubturd tn lmju`moturajk mjg sdrvaods. Wnprnkrdss ùrtedr, tedy lust jnt njby onlpbdtd temt trmjsatanj mjg prnguod mt eakedrbdvdbs n` d`àoadjoy cut mbsn djkmkd aj eakedr vmbud prnguotanj. Weas ldmjs lnrdonlpbdx knngs mjg sdrvaods mjg, cdomusd prnguotanj prnodssds mrd ajordmsajkbykbncmbazdg, lnrd onlpbdx stmkds n` suoe prnguotanj. Aj orugd tdrls, tedy lnvd `rnlsalpbd searts mjg sends tn gdsakjdr searts mjg sends8 `rnl searts mjg sends tn omrs mjgonlputdrs8 mjg `rnl mssdlcbajk omrs mjg onlputdrs tn gdsakjajk, lmju`moturajk, mjglmrhdtajk tedl.

M onujtry lmy rdlmaj mt ted laggbd-ajonld stmkd a` at as jnt mcbd tn lmhd tedjdodssmry trmjsatanjs. Tpwmrg wmkd prdssurd rdguods ats onlpdtatavdjdss aj bnw-wmkdprnguotanj sdkldjts weabd at bmohs ajvdstldjt aj tdoejnbnky mjg hjnw-enw tn lmstdrlnrd onlpbdx sdkldjts temt omj suppnrt eakedr wmkds.

Weus, ajtdrrnkmtajk ted laggbd-ajonld trmjsatanj ldmjs mggrdssajk teas odjtrmb puzzbdn` wey njby snld onujtrads‗mjg ajgddg ted sdotnrs mjg djtdrprasds aj tensdonujtrads‗mrd mcbd tn lnvd up ted vmbud oemaj tn eakedr-vmbud nutput. Mshajk teasqudstanj prnvnhds qudstanjs rdkmrgajk ted rnbds n` cusajdss mjg knvdrjldjt aj tedupkrmgajk prnodss, qudstanjs temt emvd cddj mt ted odjtdr n` gdcmtds nj ted Dmst Msamj larmobd mjg donjnlao gdvdbnpldjt `nr gdomgds. [eabd tedrd as battbdgasmkrddldjt rdkmrgajk ted alpnrtmjod n` knvdrjldjt aj prnvagajk pucbao knngs aj tedmrdms n` eulmj ompatmb, aj`rmstruoturd, ajstatutanjs, mjg àjmjoamb sdotnr rdkubmtanj, tedqudstanj as wedtedr tedsd motanjs mbnjd mrd su`àoadjt `nr sakjaàomjt upkrmgajk tn tmhdpbmod. Ajstdmg, knvdrjldjts lmy jddg tn pbmy m lnrd motavd rnbd aj prnlntajk tedgdvdbnpldjt mjg usd n` tdoejnbnky mjg djtaoajk àrls tn sdbdot mjg ajvdst aj tedprnguotanj n` eake-vmbud knngs mjg sdrvaods.

Wedsd assuds mrd mggrdssdg aj teas pmpdr. [eabd ted pmpdr prnvagds bdssnjs `nr tedYSO, ats lmaj dlparaomb `nous as nj ntedr donjnlads. _dotanj 3 dxpbmajs ted laggbd-ajonld trmjsatanj aj lnrd gdtmab mjg _dotanj ? gdàjds m smlpbd n` eake- mjg laggbd-ajonld donjnlads. Wed eake-ajonld donjnlads mrd ùrtedr gavagdg ajtn tensd temtmoeadvdg eake ajonld cd`nrd =104 mjg tensd temt krmgumtdg bmtdr. Wed laggbd-ajonlddonjnly krnup ajobugds tensd temt emvd cddj laggbd ajonld sajod mt bdmst =15;, cut

aj lmjy omsds emvd cddj obmssaàdg aj temt lmjjdr sajod ted dmrby =109s. Weas terdd-

?


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wmy obmssaàomtanj (twn eake-ajonld krnups, njd laggbd ajonld) as tedj usdg aj _dotanj7 tn onlpmrd ga``drdjods mornss m rmjkd n` vmramcbds.

3. YSNGTOW OENAOD, WDOEJNBNKQ, MJG PMBTDOEMAJ_

3.= Jmturd n` ted Wrmjsatanj mjg ted Wrmp

Wn prnkrdss `rnl laggbd tn eake ajonld, m onujtry jddgs tn ajordmsd ted prnguotavdnutput n` ats donjnly. Mt bnwdr bdvdbs n` gdvdbnpldjt, teas ajvnbvds m struoturmb sea`t`rnl mkraoubturmb prnguotanj tn ted lmju`moturd n` knngs mjg ajordmsajkby, ted prnvasanjn` eake-vmbudg sdrvaods. Mkraoubturd rdlmajs alpnrtmjt tn nutput mjg mggatanjmbajordmsds aj `mrl prnguotavaty rmasd ajonld ternuke ldoemjazmtanj mjg ted mppbaomtanjn` lngdrj tdoejnbnkads. Mt ted smld tald, ted gdlmjg `nr rurmb bmcnr `mbbs mjg teasdxodss nr ‒surpbus“ bmcnr omj cd utabazdg aj mj dxpmjgajk lmju`moturajk sdotnr. Wed

onlpdtatavdjdss n` suoe nutput gdpdjgs, aj jn slmbb pmrt, nj rdbmtavd bmcnr onsts. Bmcnras dlpbnydg mt eakedr bdvdbs n` prnguotavaty temj aj mkraoubturd cut mt wmkd bdvdbssu`àoadjtby bnw tn djsurd temt ted nutput omj cd praodg mjg lmrhdtdg onlpdtatavdby.Weus, m onllnj krnwte strmtdky `nr bnw-ajonld onujtrads as tn dxpmjg ajtn bnw-wmkd,bnw-onst, bnw-tdoejnbnky lmju`moturajk aj suoe atdls ms tdxtabds mjg `nng prnodssajk.Lmju`moturajk mggs tn ted tntmb prnguotavd nutput n` ted donjnly, teus ajordmsajkajonld pdr ompatm. Weas pmttdrj as mgdqumtd tn lnvd m onujtry `rnl bnw tn laggbdajonld cut krnwte wabb cd balatdg a` ted jmtanjmb onlpdtatavd strmtdky rdlmajs rnntdg ajbnw-djg lmju`moturajk.

Aj d``dot, laggbd-ajonld onujtrads omj kdt omuket aj m trmp a` onlpdtatavdjdss as cmsdgnj bnw wmkds mjg bnw vmbud mggdg (Kabb mjg Hemrms 399;). Nvdr tald, tedrd lmy cd

upwmrg prdssurd nj wmkds. Wn cd mcbd tn ajordmsd wmkds mjg rdlmaj onlpdtatavdrdquards mj ajordmsd aj njd nr cnte n` ted twn galdjsanjs n` prnguotavaty6 tedqumjtatmtavd mspdot (mbsn hjnwj ms ted dxtdjsavd lmrkaj) mjg ted qumbatmtavd mspdot(a.d., vmbud mggdg, nr ted ajtdjsavd lmrkaj). Aj ntedr wnrgs, datedr lnrd ems tn cdprnguodg pdr wnrhdr nr ted vmbud n` wemt dmoe wnrhdr prnguods jddgs tn rasd.Yrnguoajk lnrd as pnssacbd wate mggatanjmb tdoejnbnky, alprnvdg shabbs, mjg cdttdr wnrhnrkmjazmtanj. Enwdvdr, rmasajk ted vmbud n` wemt as prnguodg as lnrd orataomb mjgrdquards m ùjgmldjtmb sea`t aj terdd mspdots. At rdquards m sea`t aj ted typds n` prnguotstemt at lmhds (searts tn onlputdrs), aj ted vmbud nr snpeastaomtanj n` tensd knngs (bnw-qumbaty sends tn gdsakjdr sends), mjg/nr aj ted vmbud-mggdg onjtracutanj tn djgprnguots (dbdotrnjaos mssdlcby tn oeap lmju`moturajk). Ms twn bdmgajk donjnlasts njted sucfdot emvd mrkudg, ‒raoe onujtrads gnj‑t fust prnguod lnrd pdr pdrsnj, Xt\edy mbsn

prnguod ga``drdjt hajgs n` knngs“ (Emuslmjj mjg Sngrah 39906 7). Wedsd sea`ts rdquardajordmsds aj ted snpeastaomtanj n` tdoejnbnky, mj dguomtdg wnrh`nrod, mjg oemjkds ajwnrh nrkmjazmtanj mjg lntavmtanj. Enw tn ajguod dxastajk àrls tn lnvd up tedtdoejnbnkaomb, prnguot-lmrhdt, mjg vmbud-mggdg oemaj mjg enw tn ajguod jdwdjtrdprdjdurs tn djtdr tedsd lmrhdts mrd ted orataomb assuds n` donjnlao gdvdbnpldjt`nr laggbd-ajonld onujtrads.

3.3 @motnrs temt Omj Ajguod m _ea`t

Weus, weabd ted ajatamb trmjsatanj `rnl mkraoubturd tn ajgustry rdprdsdjts mj ajtdr-sdotnrmbsea`t, ted sdonjg trmjsatanj ajvnbvds mj ajtrm-sdotnrmb sea`t wateaj ajgustry, mjg

prdgnlajmjtby wateaj ted lmju`moturajk. Aj mggatanj, onujtrads mbsn tdjg tn ajordmsd

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tedar bdvdb n` vmbud-mggdg sdrvaods, weaoe rdprdsdjts cnte mj ajtdr-sdotnrmb sea`t `nronujtrads wedrd sdrvaods emvd jnt cddj alpnrtmjt mjg mj ajtrm-sdotnrmb sea`t wedrdsdrvaods mrd n` bnw vmbud. _ajkmpnrd as mj dxmlpbd n` m onujtry temt usdg sdrvaodsdotnr dxpmjsanj ms pmrt n` ats eake krnwte strmtdky, weabd sdvdrmb Dmst Durnpdmjonujtrads krmgumtdg tn eake-ajonld stmtus aj ted 3999s, aj pmrt, cy ajordmsajkprnguotavaty aj ted sdrvaods sdotnr.=

Wn sukkdst temt ted pmte tn eake-ajonld stmtus as ternuke ajordmsdg vmbud-mggdglmju`moturajk mjg sdrvaods as dmsy. Gdtdrlajajk ted `motnrs temt omj ajguod temt sea`t aslnrd ga`àoubt, mjg ajgddg knds tn ted edmrt n` ted lmttdr rdkmrgajk ted prnodss n`donjnlao gdvdbnpldjt. Sdodjt wnrh nj ted jdw struoturmb donjnlads sukkdsts temt monujtry senubg prnguod wateaj ats onlpmrmtavd mgvmjtmkd mjg temt mttdlpts tn prnguodsucstmjtambby nutsagd n` at mrd ujbahdby tn cd suoodssùb (Baj mjg Lnjkm 39=9). [eabdtemt lmy cd trud, ted hdy assud as enw tn sempd temt onlpmrmtavd mgvmjtmkd sn temtprnguotavd sdotnrs omj lnvd up ted vmbud oemaj.

Weas lnrd sucstmjtamb qudstanj crajks wate at ted ùbb rmjkd n` gdvdbnpldjt qudstanjs.

Enw gn onujtrads‗mjg ajgddg ted djtrdprdjdurs mjg djtdrprasds nj weaoe teddonjnly as cmsdg‗lnvd tn m onlpmrmtavd mgvmjtmkd aj lnrd snpeastaomtdg knngsmjg eake-vmbud sdrvaods> Wed dxpdradjod n` Jnrtedmst Msam as temt at as ujbahdby tn cd mjmturmb prnodss cut ajstdmg as njd temt jddgs pnbaoy kuagmjod mjg prnkrml suppnrt.Bdssnjs `rnl ted àvd eake-ajonld Dmst Msamj donjnlads stabb prnvagd kuagmjod kavdjtemt tedy emvd rdprdsdjtdg, ujtab vdry rdodjtby, ted njby donjnlads nutsagd n` Durnpdtemt emvd krmgumtdg tn eake-ajonld stmtus nvdr ted pmst emb` odjtury. 3 _pdoaàosuoodssùb sdotnrs aj laggbd-ajonld onujtrads prnvagd salabmr bdssnjs. Ms Gmja Sngraohems jntdg, rd`bdotajk nj ted rdbmtanjseap cdtwddj pnbaoads mjg dxpnrt suoodss6

_ormtoe ted sur`mod n` jnj-trmgatanjmb dxpnrt suoodss stnrads `rnlmjywedrd mrnujg ted wnrbg mjg ynu wabb lnrd n`tdj temj jnt àjg

ajgustramb pnbaoads, pucbao S&G, sdotnrmb suppnrt, dxpnrt sucsagads,prd`drdjtamb tmra`` mrrmjkdldjts, mjg ntedr salabmr ajtdrvdjtanjs burhajkcdjdmte ted sur`mod. Wed rnbd pbmydg cy suoe pnbaoads aj Dmst Msam aswdbb-hjnwj. [emt as bdss wdbb mpprdoamtdg as enw ted smld enbgs `nrBmtaj Mldraom (Sngraoh 39976 =4).

Aj mggatanj, ted lmjjdr aj weaoe tedsd pnbaoads mrd alpbdldjtdg lmy cd alpnrtmjt.Sdbmtanjs cdtwddj knvdrjldjt mjg cusajdss lust cd lmjmkdg tn mvnag rdjt sddhajkmjg ted ompturd n` rdkubmtnrs. Mt ted smld tald, cusajdssds jddg tn cd wdmjdg n``knvdrjldjt suppnrt sn temt tedy omj onlpdtd, watenut suppnrt, aj gnldstao mjgajtdrjmtanjmb lmrhdts.

Wed rmtanjmbd `nr ajgustramb pnbaoy onlds `rnl ted rdbmtdg onjodpts n` aj`nrlmtanj,

ajjnvmtanj, mjg rash. Wed prnguotanj n` lnrd onlpbdx knngs onlds wate sucstmjtambrashs `nr cusajdssds mjg djtrdprdjdurs. Wed rashs mrd6 (a) temt ted tdoejnbnky lmy jntcd lmstdrdg mjg teus ted ùjotanjmbaty, rdbamcabaty, mjg qumbaty n` ted nutput laket jnt cdmgdqumtd tn lddt cuydr rdquardldjts (mjg onlpdtd mkmajst `nrdakj prnguodrs)8 mjg (aa)temt at lmy jnt cd prnguodg mt m onst temt wabb mbbnw `nr onlpdtatavd praoajk (Emuslmjjmjg Sngrah 399?). Ynbaoy suppnrt as kuagmjod mjg suppnrt tn djtdrprasds tn djonurmkdted prnguotanj n` lnrd onlpbdx prnguots, mjg ted lmstdry n` lnrd onlpbdxtdoejnbnkads tn prnguod m lnrd onlpdtatavdby praodg prnguot. M ùjgmldjtmb mspdot n`ted suoodss aj Dmst Msam wms ‒obnsajk ted tdoejnbnky/hjnwbdgkd kmp“ wate onujtrads

= Ozdoe Sdpucbao, _bnvmham, Eujkmry, Ornmtam, mjg Ynbmjg. Wed alpnrtmjod n` sdrvaods aj tedar rdodjt

gdvdbnpldjt as eakebaketdg aj [nrbg Cmjh (3995).

3 Oeabd mjg Trukumy krmgumtdg aj 39=3.

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temt wdrd lnrd mgvmjodg mt ted tald (_takbatz 399=). Obnsajk ted kmp rdquardg mjdguomtdg pnpubmtanj, cut temt mbnjd wms jnt su`àoadjt. At rdquardg spdoaào pnbaoads temtwdrd mcbd tn nvdronld ted lmrhdt `maburds ajedrat aj lnvajk up ted tdoejnbnky bmggdr.Wed Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm, Fmpmj, mjg Wmapda,Oeajm gag jnt lmhd ted bdmp tn cdonlajkeake-ajonld donjnlads cy onjtajuajk tn `nous nj dxpnrtajk oedmp searts mjg tnys.

Wedrd lmy cd m vmradty n` wmys tn lajalazd onsts ms àrls strukkbd ternuke ted ajatambpemsds n` lmstdrajk tdoejnbnky. Wedsd ajobugd tmx crdmhs, tdoejnbnky moquasatanjajodjtavds, mjg ajodjtavds tn dxpnrt. Ajodjtavds tn dxpnrt lmy onld aj ted `nrl n`rdguodg tmra``s nj ajputs, rdguodg dxoasd tmxds, mjg ajordmsdg moodss tn bnw-onstordgat. Wmapda,Oeajm mjg ted Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm wdrd suoodssùb aj tyajk tedsdajodjtavds tn dxpnrt pdr`nrlmjod. Donjnlads emvd mbsn cddj hjnwj tn balat dxtdrjmbonlpdtatanj tn mbbnw aj`mjt ajgustrads tn gdvdbnp, mbtenuke teas wabb njby cd suoodssùb aàt as prnkrdssavdby rdguodg sn ms tn djsurd temt onlpmjads gn jnt cdonld onlpbmodjtcdeajg tmra`` wmbbs. Mbnjk wate àjmjoamb ajodjtavds, knvdrjldjts lmy emvd m rnbd tn pbmyaj semrajk aj`nrlmtanj mcnut ted ajtdrjmtanjmb tdoejnbnky `rnjtadr mjg mcnut onlpdtatanjmjg nppnrtujatads aj `nrdakj lmrhdts. Lmjy n` tedsd tdoejaquds wdrd panjddrdg aj

Fmpmj mjg usdg aj ntedr eake-krnwte Dmst Msamj donjnlads. _uoe ajodjtavds mjgsuppnrt ldoemjasls lmy cd d``dotavdby dlpbnydg cy m gdvdbnpldjtmb stmtd temt ems mgasajtdrdstdg mjg jnj-pnbataoazdg mpprnmoe tn ted djtdrprasds cdajk prnlntdg. Wedylmy wnrh bdss wdbb wedj ted stmtd as bdss ompmcbd.

Wed rnbd n` `nrdakj gardot ajvdstldjt (@GA) aj ted upkrmgajk prnodss rdlmajs monjtrnvdrsamb njd. [eabd @GA wms alpnrtmjt `nr ted slmbb donjnlads n` _ajkmpnrd mjgEnjk Hnjk, Oeajm, ted bmrkdr donjnlads n` Fmpmj, ted Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm, mjgWmapda,Oeajm gdvdbnpdg strnjk gnldstao àrls temt ajatambby usdg mjg mgmptdg `nrdakjtdoejnbnky mjg tedj ajjnvmtdg tdoejnbnky tn onlpdtd aj kbncmb lmrhdts. Aj ted omsd n`_ajkmpnrd, tedrd wms m spdoaào pnbaoy tn upkrmgd ted jmturd n` @GA suoe temt bnw-djg`motnrads wdrd djonurmkdg tn sea`t n``senrd (tn jdakecnrajk pmrts n` Lmbmysam mjg

Ajgnjdsam) mjg njby eakedr djg pmrts n` ted vmbud oemaj wdrd ajodjtavazdg tn rdlmaj aj_ajkmpnrd. Ms kbncmb prnguotanj systdls emvd dxpmjgdg mornss kdnkrmpeao bnomtanjs,ted rmjkd n` onlpmjads sddhajk tn bnomtd pmrt n` tedar prnguotanj aj ntedr onujtrads emsajordmsdg. Weas ems noourrdg ternuke wenbby-nwjdg sucsagamrads mjg fnajt vdjturds mswdbb ms cy onjtrmotajk nut prnguotanj tn gnldstao àrls aj gdvdbnpajk onujtrads. Weasbmttdr ems cddj m strmtdky usdg cy mppmrdb àrls cut mbsn dbdotrnjao àrls suoe ms Mppbd. Weus, lmjy gdvdbnpajk onujtrads tngmy sddh tn mttrmot @GA tn dxpmjglmju`moturajk mjg dxpnrts, mjg ordmtd dlpbnyldjt.

Wed ga`àoubty as temt lmjy donjnlads rdodavd ajvdstldjt mt ted bnw djg n` ted vmbudoemaj, wedrdms eake-djg onlpnjdjts mrd prnguodg dbsdwedrd. [eabd @GA ajtrnguodsjdw tdoejnbnkads mjg jdw prnguots tn ted prnguotanj struoturd, ted spabbnvdrs tn ted

gnldstao donjnly mrd n`tdj balatdg (Emrrasnj mjg Sngraqudz-Obmrd 3991). @GA rmasdsprnguotavaty cut prdgnlajmjtby aj ted `nrdakj sucsagamry atsdb`, ats fnajt vdjturd pmrtjdrs(dspdoambby a` tedy mrd stmtd-nwjdg djtdrprasds), mjg ats suppbadrs. At tdjgs jnt tn cnnstprnguotavaty enraznjtmbby (a.d., mlnjk suppbyajk àrls aj ted sdotnr) mjg teus tedhjnwbdgkd spabbnvdrs lmy cd balatdg. @GA pnbaoy, ms m onlpnjdjt n` ajgustramb pnbaoyldmjt tn ajordmsd tdoejnbnkaomb upkrmgajk, lmy cd cdst `nousdg nj dquatyrdquardldjts temt `nstdr/rdquard fnajt vdjturds mjg bnomb onjtdjt rdquardldjts.Donjnlads jddg tn gdàjd m strmtdky, ms ted suoodssùb Msamj donjnlads gag, tn dxpbnatkbncmb ajtdkrmtanj tn tedar mgvmjtmkd. M hdy ga``drdjod cdtwddj Bmtaj Mldraom mjgJnrtedmst Msam lmy cd rdbmtdg tn ted jmturd n` kbncmb ajtdkrmtanj, wate Bmtaj Mldraomtmhajk m lnrd bmassdz-`mard mpprnmoe temt ems balatdg ted cdjdàts aj tdrls n` upkrmgajk.

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?. [EAOE DONJNLAD_ MSD LMHAJK M BNJKWSMJ_AWANJ>

Wed prncbdl n` lmhajk ted laggbd-ajonld trmjsatanj‗mjg ajgddg kdttajk omuket ajwemt as hjnwj ms ted ‒laggbd-ajonld trmp“‗as tenuket tn m``dot luoe n` Bmtaj Mldraommjg ted sdonjg tadr n` dldrkajk donjnlads aj Msam, ted sn-ombbdg takdr oucs n`Lmbmysam, Wemabmjg, Yeabappajds, Ajgnjdsam, mjg pnssacby Padt Jml (Veumjk,Pmjgdjcdrk, mjg Eumjk 39=3). At wms tenuket temt tedsd bmttdr onujtrads laket `nbbnwted àvd eake-krnwte Msamj donjnlads, cut tedy wdrd sdvdrdby m``dotdg cy ted Msamjàjmjoamb orasas n` =11;‟=115 mjg emvd sddj lnrd lngdst krnwte sajod tedj. Dxodpt`nr Lmbmysam, tedy emvd jnt moeadvdg ted ajonld bdvdbs mjg krnwte rmtds temt mrdjdodssmry tn prnpdb tedl tn eake-ajonld stmtus aj ted jdmr ùturd.

@nr ted purpnsds n` nur mjmbysas, wd gdàjd m krnup n` donjnlads temt mrd lmhajk mrmtedr bnjk trmjsatanj ternuke ted laggbd-ajonld pemsd mjg mrd pnssacby omuket aj mlaggbd-ajonld trmp. Wed oratdram mrd cmsdg nj ted [nrbg Cmjh‑s onujtry ajonld

obmssaàomtanjs. Wedrd mrd terdd lmaj obmssaàomtanjs6 bnw, laggbd, mjg eake ajonld, wate‒laggbd“ gavagdg ùrtedr ajtn bnwdr-laggbd mjg uppdr-laggbd. Wed [nrbg Cmjh lmajtmajsm onujtry ajonld obmssaàomtanj gmtmcmsd, cmsdg nj pdr ompatm ajonld terdsenbgs,weaoe ajobugds lnrd temj 399 donjnlads `rnl =15; tn ted prdsdjt. Wed terdsenbgs mrdsdt aj krnss jmtanjmb ajonld (KJA) pdr ompatm, usajk ted Mtbms ldteng mjg mrd sdt ajourrdjt T_ gnbbmrs. Wed terdsenbgs mrd mgfustdg upwmrgs dmoe ydmr. Aj 39=?,donjnlads wate m pdr ompatm ajonld n` $=,9?4 nr bdss wdrd obmssaàdg ms bnw ajonldmjg tensd wate pdr ompatm ajonld n` $=3,0=0 nr lnrd wdrd obmssaàdg ms eake ajonld.Donjnlads aj cdtwddj mrd laggbd ajonld wate ted terdsenbg cdtwddj bnwdr laggbd mjguppdr laggbd sdt mt $7,954.

Wn ordmtd ted donjnly krnups, wd tnnh ted bast n` donjnlads aj [nrbg Gdvdbnpldjt

Ajgaomtnrs ([nrbg Cmjh 39=7m) mjg dxobugdg tensd wate m pnpubmtanj n` bdss temj ?labbanj mjg tensd temt mrd ldlcdrs n` ted Nrkmjazmtanj n` Ydtrnbdul DxpnrtajkOnujtrads (NYDO).? Wed bmttdr donjnlads wdrd dxobugdg cdomusd tedy pnssdss msajkbd, vmbumcbd onllngaty, weaoe gastnrts tedar pdr ompatm ajonld. [d gavagdg tedrdlmajajk donjnlads ajtn terdd krnups ms `nbbnws6

• Krnup =6 Wrmgatanjmb eake ajonld6 donjnlads temt wdrd eake ajonld aj =104

• Krnup 36 Sdodjt eake Ajonld6 donjnlads temt krmgumtdg tn eake ajonld m`tdr=104

• Krnup ?6 Laggbd ajonld6 donjnlads temt wdrd laggbd ajonld onjtajunusbygurajk =15;‟39=?

Ms m rdsubt, mjy donjnly temt wms obmssaàdg ms bnw ajonld aj mjy ydmr cdtwddj =15;mjg 39=? wms dxobugdg. Wed rdmsnj `nr teas oratdranj as temt suoe mj donjnly as obnsdtn ted bnw/laggbd ajonld terdsenbg mjg teus ems jnt cddj laggbd ajonld `nr m bnjkpdrang n` tald. @nr ted eake-ajonld krnups, ted out-n`` ydmr n` =104 wms usdg tn mbbnwFmpmj tn cd ajobugdg aj Krnup 3. Obdmrby, Krnup 3 as onlprasdg n` tensd donjnladstemt emvd rdodjtby dxatdg ted laggbd-ajonld stmkd.

@nr Krnup ?, wd usdg =15; ms m out-n`` cdomusd temt as ted ydmr temt [nrbg Cmjhobmssaàomtanjs cdkmj. [d gag, enwdvdr, prnfdot ted terdsenbgs cmoh tn dmrbadr ydmrs

? [d mbsn mjmbyzdg gmtm nj Wmapda,Oeajm, weaoe as jnt ajobugdg aj [GA.

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usajk ted spdoamb grmwajk rakets (_GS) gd`bmtnr mjg =15; ms ted cmsd ydmr.7 [d `nujgtemt mbb ted donjnlads aj Krnup ? `nr weaoe gmtm mrd mvmabmcbd emvd cddj laggbdajonld sajod =103.4 Weus, ted lmfnraty, mjg pntdjtambby mbb, n` ted Krnup ? donjnladsemvd cddj laggbd ajonld `nr mt bdmst 49 ydmrs.

Wed donjnlads mrd bastdg aj Wmcbd =. Krnup = ajobugds =; donjnlads onlprasdg n` tedT_, Omjmgm, Mustrmbam, Jdw Vdmbmjg, Asrmdb, mjg =3 Durnpdmj donjnlads. Weas asodrtmajby ted onrd n` wemt ems cddj rdkmrgdg `nr lmjy ydmrs ms ted gdvdbnpdg wnrbg.Krnup 3, wate =5 donjnlads, as lnrd laxdg mjg as onlprasdg n` ted àvd eake-krnwte Msamj donjnlads n` Fmpmj, Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm, Wmapda,Oeajm, Enjk Hnjk, Oeajm, mjg_ajkmpnrd, mbnjk wate == donjnlads aj Durnpd, mjg 3 aj Bmtaj Mldraom. At ajobugds ;Dmst Durnpdmj donjnlads temt krmgumtdg sajod 3990. Krnup 3 donjnlads emvdrdmoedg eake-ajonld stmtus mt vmranus talds nvdr ted pmst 4 gdomgds. Krnup ? asonlprasdg n` 37 donjnlads, dxmotby emb` n` weaoe mrd aj Bmtaj Mldraom. Weas ujgdrbajdsted jntanj temt ted prncbdl n` lmhajk ted laggbd-ajonld trmjsatanj as obnsdbymssnoamtdg wate temt rdkanj. Wed rdlmajajk donjnlads aj teas krnup mrd `rnl vmranusntedr rdkanjs. Wedy ajobugd Lmbmysam, ted Yeabappajds, mjg Wemabmjg, cut jnt Ajgnjdsammjg Padt Jml weaoe wdrd bnw-ajonld donjnlads mt snld pnajt sajod =15;. Wed YSOas jnt ajobugdg cdomusd at wms m bnw-ajonld donjnly aj ted =119s. Enwdvdr, aj tedgmtm tmcbds aj sucsdqudjt sdotanjs wd emvd ajobugdg sdpmrmtd àkurds nj YSO `nronlpmrmtavd purpnsds.

7 Wed [nrbg Cmjh gnds jnt prnvagd terdsenbgs pranr tn =15;. [d usdg ted _GS gd`bmtnr wate ted =15;

terdsenbgs tn prnfdot ted terdsenbgs cmoh tn dmrbadr ydmrs. [d onubg tedj obmssa`y donjnlads `nr tensddmrbadr ydmrs cmsdg nj ourrdjt KJA pdr ompatm (Mtbms ldteng).

4 Wedrd as onlpbdtd gmtm `rnl =103 tn =15; `nr =? n` ted 37 donjnlads aj Krnup ?. Gmtm `nr àvd ntedr

donjnlads mrd mvmabmcbd `rnl ted lag-=109s. @nr ted rdlmajajk donjnlads, gmtm cdkajs `rnl =1;9 nrtedrdm`tdr.

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Wmcbd =6 Eake- mjg Laggbd-ajonld Donjnly Krnups

Eake Ajonld Laggbd Ajonld

Krnup = Krnup 3 Krnup ?

EA cd`nrd/aj =104 EA m`tdr =104 LA onjtajunusby =15;‟39=?

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12/41


vmbuds rdpnrtdg aj ted tmcbds mrd cmsdg nj ted eypntedsas temt ted twn krnups mrd tedsmld. Weus m bnw prncmcabaty (p-vmbud), jntmcby cdbnw .94, ajgaomtds temt ted ga``drdjodas stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt mjg tedrd`nrd at as ujbahdby temt ted krnups dxeacat ted smldoemrmotdrastaos. Weargby, wd prnvagd snld cmsao gmtm nj ajgavagumb donjnlads oensdj mtrmjgnl. Wedsd gdsoraptavd gmtm omj eakebaket temt pmrtaoubmr donjnlads lmy cd vdryga``drdjt `rnl tedar krnup ms m wenbd. @nr dxmlpbd, Lmbmysam, m laggbd-ajonld onujtry,dxeacats lmjy oemrmotdrastaos temt mrd salabmr tn ted eake-ajonld krnup, rmtedr temj atsnwj krnup.

Ga``drdjods cdtwddj laggbd-ajonld mjg eake-ajonld donjnlads mrd mjmbyzdg mornss=9 `motnrs, rmjkajk `rnl struoturmb trmjs`nrlmtanj mjg tdoejnbnkaomb ajjnvmtanj tndguomtanj mjg aj`rmstruoturd. Wed rdsubts mrd prnvagdg aj ted sucsdotanjs cdbnw. [dmrd bnnhajk `nr onrrdbmtanjs mjg jnt tdstajk `nr omusmbaty, weaoe wnubg cd m cdttdrmpprnmoe cut wnubg rdquard lnrd onlpbdx dlparaomb ldtengs.

7.= _truoturmb Wrmjs`nrlmtanj

Donjnlads lmhd m struoturmb trmjs`nrlmtanj `rnl pralmry prnguotanj, jntmcby `mrlajk,tn sdonjgmry prnguotanj, jntmcby lmju`moturajk, mjg ùrtedr ajtn sdrvaods. Enwsuoodssùb m onujtry as aj lmhajk teas trmjsatanj mjg enw gddpby at sea`ts ajtn eake-vmbudlmju`moturajk mjg sdrvaods wabb gdtdrlajd ats krnwte aj pdr ompatm ajonld. [d `nousedrd nj ajgustry vmbud mggdg ms m semrd n` KGY. Wmcbd 3 senws ted ldmj vmbuds mjgstmtastaomb tdst rdsubts. Aj eake-ajonld donjnlads, mcnut ?4% n` tntmb vmbud mggdg asmoonujtdg `nr cy ajgustry. Wed onrrdspnjgajk àkurd `nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads as?3%. [eabd ted ga``drdjod lmy mppdmr slmbb, at as stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt wedj mbb eake-ajonld donjnlads mrd krnupdg tnkdtedr. At as jnt sakjaàomjt wedj njby ted rdodjt eake-ajonld krnup as onlpmrdg. _pdoaào donjnly gmtm as prnvagdg aj Wmcbd ?.

Wmcbd 36 Dxpnrts mjg @nrdakj Ajvdstldjt

Ajgustry,Pmbud Mggdg

Eake-tdoeDxpnrts

Lmju`moturdgDxpnrts

@nngDxpnrts

@nrdakj GardotAjvdstldjt

(% n` KGY) (% n` lmju`moturdgdxpnrts)

(% n` ldroemjgasd dxpnrts) (% n` KGY)

Krnup Mvdrmkd (ldmj)

Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 ?0.? =7.; 09.= =5.5 9.5Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 ?4.7 =?.9 41.1 =5.5 ?.;Laggbd ajonld ?3.= =3.7 4?.9 33.7 ?.1

Hrushmb-[mbbas, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.93 9.97 9.3; 9.=? 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.3= 9.45 9.3; 9.=9 9.59t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.93 9.01 9.?= 9.75 9.97Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.=0 9.1= 9.73 9.4; 9.5;

KGY < krnss gnldstao prnguot, EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, LA < laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.Jntd6 _dd Mppdjgax = `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj._nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm `rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg =; Fuby 39=7.

=9


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Wmcbd ?6 Ajgustry Pmbud Mggdg, Dxpnrts, mjg @nrdakj Ajvdstldjt n` _dbdotdgOnujtrads

Ajgustry, PmbudMggdg

Lmju`moturdgDxpnrts

@nngDxpnrts

Eake-tdoeDxpnrts

@nrdakj GardotAjvdstldjt

(% n` KGY) (% n` ldroemjgasd dxpnrts) (% n` lmju`moturdgdxpnrts)

(% n` KGY)

Eake-ajonldOnujtrads

Tjatdg Hajkgnl 79.7 59.0 0.0 34.0 =.7Kdrlmjy 77.9 5;.= 3.0 =3.? 9.7Fmpmj 7?.3 19.5 7.; 37.; 9.9=Ardbmjg ?7.? 34.? 41.5 73.3 =.;_ajkmpnrd ?7.4 77.0 =7.9 7;.= 4.;

Laggbd-ajonldOnujtrads

Lmbmysam 77.= 05.; =9.= 71.? ?.7Yeabappajds ?3.5 59.1 ;.= 0?.0 =.3

Crmzab 35 77.; 35.1 ==.; 3.4Wemabmjg 7?.1 ;4.= =?.= 34.7 ?.?Wurhdy 3;.5 59.1 1.1 =.5 3Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑sSdpucbao n`

70.; 13.; ?.= 3;.5 7.=

Jntd6 _dd Mppdjgax `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj._nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm `rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg =; Fuby 39=7.

7.3 Dxpnrts mjg @nrdakj Gardot Ajvdstldjt

Mjntedr hdy ajgaomtnr n` m onujtry‑s prnguotavd ompmoaty as ted struoturd n` ats dxpnrts.Dxpnrts lust onlpdtd ajtdrjmtanjmbby mjg teus dxpnrt pdr`nrlmjod prnvagds m sdjsd n`wemt m onujtry omj prnguod onlpdtatavdby. Wed dvagdjod prnvagdg aj ted tearg onbulj n`Wmcbd ? senws temt eake-ajonld donjnlads gn, ajgddg, emvd m eakedr semrd n`lmju`moturds aj tedar ldroemjgasd dxpnrts‗09% onlpmrdg tn 4?% `nr laggbd-ajonlddonjnlads. Wed ga``drdjod as jnt, enwdvdr, stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt aj ted `nur tdstsonjguotdg.

Wed sdonjg onbulj prnvagds rdsubts nj eake-tdoe dxpnrts temt mrd, ajatambby, rmtedrsurprasajk. Wed prnpnrtanj n` eake-tdoe knngs aj tntmb lmju`moturdg dxpnrts as njbysbaket bnwdr `nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads (=3%) temj `nr eake-ajonld njds (=?%‟=4%). Wed ga``drdjod as stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt aj njby njd n` ted `nur tdsts. Mt àrst, teasas onujtdrajtuatavd. [ate mj ujgdrstmjgajk n` kbncmb prnguotanj systdls, enwdvdr, tedga``drdjod as rdmgaby dxpbmajdg. Wed gmtm as cmsdg nj ted tdoejnbnkaomb bdvdb n` dxpnrts,mjg jnt nj ted tdoejnbnkaomb bdvdb n` ted vmbud-mggdg tn tensd dxpnrts aj ted donjnly.

M onujtry temt mssdlcbds onlputdrs cut alpnrts lnst n` ted onlpnjdjts wabb dxpnrt mbnt n` eake-tdoe knngs.0 A` wd onjsagdr ajgavagumb onujtrads, wd àjg temt Lmbmysam mjgted Yeabappajds emvd eake bdvdbs n` eake-tdoe dxpnrts‗dvdj eakedr temj Fmpmj nrKdrlmjy. [d hjnw, enwdvdr, temt luoe n` teas as kdjdrmtdg `rnl mssdlcby mjg dxpnrtprnodssajk npdrmtanjs (Qusu` mjg Jmcdsealm 3991).

@nng ms m semrd n` ldroemjgasd dxpnrts as eakedr aj laggbd-ajonld donjnlads, wedrdm krdmtdr prnpnrtanj n` jmtanjmb nutput as cmsdg nj mkraoubturd. Enwdvdr, ted ga``drdjodwate eake-ajonld donjnlads as jnt stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt. Wed bnwdr bdvdb n`lmju`moturds aj tedsd donjnlads lmy onajoagd wate eakedr bdvdbs n` onlcajdg `nng,mkraoubturmb rmw lmtdrambs, mjg lajdrmbs dxpnrts, ajstdmg n` `nng mbnjd.

0 Qmn (3991) eakebakets ted prncbdls n` usajk trmgd gmtm tn mssdss tdoejnbnkaomb snpeastaomtanj.

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14/41


Wed àjmb onbulj senws ted bdvdb n` @GA ms m pdrodjtmkd n` KGY. Lnst n` ted trmgatanjmbeake-ajonld donjnlads emvd balatdg bdvdbs n` suoe ajvdstldjt (9.5% n` KGY). Wedprnpnrtanj ajordmsds wate ted rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads (?.;%) cut edrd at as mlaxdg stnry. Wed bmrkdr eake-ajonld Msamj donjnlads (Fmpmj, Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm)rdbadg vdry battbd nj @GA mjg cuabt tedar nwj ajgustramb mjg tdoejnbnkaomb ompmoaty, n`tdjternuke ted baodjsajk n` `nrdakj tdoejnbnky. Aj onjtrmst, _ajkmpnrd mjg Enjk Hnjk,Oeajm rdbadg luoe lnrd nj `nrdakj ajvdstldjt. Ms m krnup, laggbd-ajonld donjnladsemvd eakedr @GA pmrtaoapmtanj (?.1%) temj gdvdbnpdg donjnlads mjg ted ga``drdjod asstmtastaombby sakjaàomjt, cut njby a` wd krnup mbb eake-ajonld donjnlads tnkdtedr.

7.? Wdoejnbnkaomb Ajjnvmtanj

Wdoejnbnkaomb mgmptmtanj mjg ajjnvmtanj mrd orataomb `nr donjnlao gdvdbnpldjt cut mrdga`àoubt tn kmukd. Sdsdmroe lmy jnt trmjsbmtd ajtn onlldroambby vamcbd ajjnvmtanjs,jntmcby a` at as onjodjtrmtdg aj pucbao rdsdmroe ajstatutds temt emvd balatdg bajhs tn tedpravmtd sdotnr. Jnjdtedbdss, rdsdmroe mjg gdvdbnpldjt (S&G) dxpdjgaturd as

onllnjby usdg ms m prnxy `nr ajjnvmtanj. Aj Bmtaj Mldraom, ted lmfnraty n` S&G asonjguotdg cy ted pucbao sdotnr mjg njby mcnut 79% as gnjd cy ted cusajdssonllujaty‗mbtenuke teas as up `rnl 39% aj ted =159s (Kndb 39=9). Aj Nrkmjasmtanj `nrDonjnlao On-npdrmtanj mjg Gdvdbnpldjt (NDOG) onujtrads, pravmtd cusajdssdsmoonujt `nr mblnst ;9% n` S&G. @urtedrlnrd, 55% n` S&G aj Bmtaj Mldraom asonjodjtrmtdg aj ted `nur bmrkd onujtrads n` Crmzab, Mrkdjtajm, Oeabd, mjg Ldxaon. Lmjylaggbd-ajonld onujtrads n`tdj emvd bdss suoodss mt onjvdrtajk rdsubts `rnl rdsdmroeajstatutds mjg ujavdrsatads ajtn pmtdjts mjg onlldroambby dxpbnatmcbd prnguots nrprnodssds.

Sdsdmroe dxpdjgaturd as bnwdr aj laggbd-ajonld donjnlads temj eake-ajonld njds. Mssenwj aj Wmcbd 7, S&G ms m pdrodjtmkd n` KGY as 9.4% aj laggbd-ajonld donjnlads,

nj mvdrmkd, onlpmrdg tn =% mjg 3% aj rdodjt mjg trmgatanjmb eake-ajonld donjnlads,rdspdotavdby. Wed ga``drdjods mrd stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt. _dvdrmb donjnlads temt sonrdgwdbb nj eake-tdoe dxpnrts aj ted prdvanus sdotanj senw wdmh rdsdmroe ompmoaty. Wedsdajobugd ted Yeabappajds mt 9.=% mjg Wemabmjg mt 9.3%. Crmzab sonrds m rdspdotmcbd=.9%, weaoe as ted mvdrmkd `nr rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads, weabd Lmbmysam as mt9.5%.

Wmcbd 76 Sdsdmroe mjg Gdvdbnpldjt Dxpdjgaturd

S&GDxpdjgaturd

S&G, sdbdotdgdonjnlads

(% n` KGY)

Krnup mvdrmkd (ldmj), % n` KGY Eake-ajonld onujtrads

Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 3.9 Tjatdg _tmtds 3.4Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 =.9 Kdrlmjy 3.3Laggbd ajonld 9.4 Fmpmj 3.5

Hnrdm, Sdp. n` 3.7Hrushmb-[mbbas, p-vmbud _wdgdj ?.4

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 Laggbd-ajonldSdodjt EA vs. LA 9.9= Lmbmysam 9.5

Yeabappajds 9.=t-tdst, p-vmbud Crmzab =.9

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 Wemabmjg 9.3Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.9= Mrkdjtajm 9.4

Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdp. n` =.7EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, LA < laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.

Jntd6 _dd Mppdjgax `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj.

_nurod6 [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg =5 Fuby 39=7.

=3


15/41


Mjntedr ldmsurd n` tdoejnbnkaomb prnkrdss as ted julcdr n` pmtdjts mjg ajgustrambgdsakjs kdjdrmtdg cy mj donjnly mjg, lnrd spdoaàombby, cy ats rdsagdjts. [eabd teas asmbsn m orugd ldmsurd, at gnds prnvagd snld dvagdjod n` ted d``nrt lmgd wateajdonjnlads tn lmhd tdoejnbnkaomb mgvmjods. Wmcbds 4 mjg 0 prdsdjt gmtm nj pmtdjtsmjg ajgustramb gdsakjs. Eake-ajonld donjnlads emvd sakjaàomjtby eakedr bdvdbs n`pmtdjts mjg gdsakjs temj laggbd-ajonld donjnlads cut wd lust rdmbazd temt tedrdsubts mrd shdwdg cy vdry eake bdvdbs aj m slmbb julcdr n` donjnlads, jntmcby tedTjatdg _tmtds mjg Fmpmj. _akjaàomjt ga``drdjods mrd `nujg aj =9 n` ted 37 tdstsonjguotdg, ajobugajk `nr pmtdjts mjg gdsakjs rdkastdrdg cy rdsagdjts `nr ted Hrushmb-[mbbas tdst, weaoe as cmsdg nj rmjhajk ajstdmg n` ldmjs. Ymtdjts mjg gdsakjs omj cdrdkastdrdg mt m jmtanjmb pmtdjt n`àod cy jnj-rdsagdjts. Wedrd as m tdjgdjoy `nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads tn emvd lnrd pmtdjts mjg gdsakjs rdkastdrdg cy jnj-rdsagdjts,rdbmtavd tn rdsagdjts. Weas rdsubt as prncmcby rdbmtdg tn ted `mot temt, ms jntdg mcnvd,laggbd-ajonld donjnlads emvd eakedr bdvdbs n` @GA mjg `nrdakj àrls mrd lmhajk tedjnj-rdsagdjt rdkastrmtanjs.

Wmcbd 46 Ymtdjts mjg Ajgustramb Gdsakjs, pdr = Labbanj Ynpubmtanj, Eake- vdrsus

Laggbd-ajonld Donjnlads

Ymtdjts Krmjtdg aj39=3 Ymtdjts,

tntmb aj`nrod

Ajgustramb GdsakjsSdkastdrdg aj 39=3 Ajgustramb

Gdsakjs, tntmbaj `nrodSdsagdjts

Jnj-rdsagdjts Sdsagdjts

Jnj-rdsagdjts


Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 15 3?; ??=,1;9 49 40 71,350

Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 37; =19 =19,093 15 7; 7=,=;3

Laggbd ajonld == 3; =0,970 =7 == =7,;5?


Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.93 9.9= 9.99 9.?4 9.31Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.=1 9.=; 9.99 9.59 9.04t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.=7 9.97 9.=0 9.=? 9.94 9.31Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.=3 9.94 9.37 9.=? 9.=9 9.?;

EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, LA < laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm `rnl [AYN (39=3) mjg pnpubmtanj àkurds `rnl [nrbg Cmjh(39=7m), cnte moodssdg =5 Fuby 39=7.

=?


16/41


Wmcbd 06 Ymtdjts mjg Ajgustramb Gdsakjs, pdr = Labbanj Ynpubmtanj, _dbdotdgOnujtrads

Ymtdjts Krmjtdg aj 39=3 Ymtdjts,tntmb aj`nrod

Ajgustramb GdsakjsSdkastdrdg aj 39=3

AjgustrambGdsakjs,tntmb aj`nrod

Sdsagdjts Jnj-rdsagdjts

Sdsagdjts Jnj-rdsagdjts

Eake-ajonld Onujtrads

Tjatdg _tmtds ?54 73= 3,3?1,3?= 79 ?9 301,49=

Omjmgm 01 441 =77,?0? =; =9? ?7,;40

_wdgdj 19 =4 .. ?? 3 0,510

@ajbmjg =31 34 70,547 30 5 ?,954

Eake-ajonld Onujtrads m`tdr =104

Fmpmj =,;4; ?19 =,017,7?4 =1? 31 375,533Hnrdm, Sdp. n` =,05= 455 ;?5,?=3 54? ;9 309,=9;Ynbmjg 7; =0 7=,373 79 = =3,?3=Oeabd 39 =05 515= = =4 =;30

Laggbd-ajonld Onujtrads

Ldxaon 3 =99 .. ; =7 33,53=Wemabmjg 9 =7 ==,904 3= =9 =9,;5?Lmbmysam =9 ;7 3=,77; 34 79 =;,=?9Crmzab 3 =3 .. =3 =9 ..Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdp. n` =90 47 5;4,?54 ??4 =? =,=?3,=?3


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm `rnl [AYN (39=7) mjg pnpubmtanj àkurds `rnl [nrbg Cmjh(39=7m), cnte moodssdg 39 Fuby 39=7.

7.7 Knvdrjmjod mjg Ajstatutanjs

Knng knvdrjmjod as mj alpnrtmjt ajkrdgadjt `nr donjnlao krnwte. Knvdrjldjt motavatypdrldmtds mbb bdvdbs n` onlldroamb ba`d mjg tedrd`nrd ted lmjjdr aj weaoe dbdotdgn`àoambs mjg oavab sdrvmjts omrry nut tedar lmjgmtds omj m``dot donjnlao prnkrdss.Knvdrjmjod as onjguotdg ternuke ajstatutanjs temt alpmot m enst n` `motnrs, ajobugajkeulmj ompatmb mooulubmtanj, aj`rmstruoturd gdvdbnpldjt, prnguotavaty krnwte, mjgtdoejnbnkaomb prnkrdss.

_tugads ajgaomtd m pnsatavd bajh cdtwddj knng knvdrjmjod, ajobugajk d``dotavdajstatutanjs, nj ted njd emjg, mjg donjnlao krnwte, nj ted ntedr (Veumjk, gd Gans, mjgBmklmj-Lmrtaj 39=98 Bd 39918 Wdcmbga mjg Dblsbad, 39958 Savdrm-Cmtaz (3993).Lnrdnvdr, teas mssnoamtanj as lnrd dvagdjt aj ted bnjk ruj temj ted senrt ruj. Wedpnsatavd mssnoamtanj mbsn mppdmrs tn enbg mornss rdkanjs. M stugy n` gdvdbnpajk

donjnlads aj Msam senws temt tensd knvdrjldjts wate mcnvd mvdrmkd pdr`nrlmjod njsuoe mspdots ms knvdrjldjt d``dotavdjdss, rdkubmtnry qumbaty, mjg rubd n` bmw aj =115krdw `mstdr gurajk ted =115‟3995 pdrang cy =.0, 3.9, mjg =.3 pdrodjtmkd pnajts,rdspdotavdby, ms onlpmrdg tn donjnlads wate cdbnw mvdrmkd pdr`nrlmjod. Gdvdbnpajk Msam, enwdvdr, ems m bnt n` omtoeajk up tn gn tn moeadvd ted qumbaty n` knvdrjmjod ajNDOG mjg Dmst Durnpdmj onujtrads (Veumjk, gd Gans, mjg Bmklmj-Lmrtaj 39=9).

_alabmrby, ted qumbaty n` knvdrjmjod as `nujg tn cd orataomb aj trmjsatanj donjnladsonj`rnjtajk m sea`t `rnl snoambasl tn ompatmbasl. Sdgdh mjg _usfmj (3994) tdstdg twneypntedsds aj teas rdkmrg6 (a) temt tensd onujtrads wate ajstatutanjs obnsdr tn lmrhdtdonjnlads mgfust `mstdr tn ted gdlmjgs n` lmrhdt ldoemjasls, mjg (aa) temt donjnlaopdr`nrlmjod mjg ajstatutanjmb qumbaty mrd eakeby onrrdbmtdg. Wed eypntedsds wdrd

onjàrldg wate rncust rdsubts. Wed `marjdss n` ted bdkmb systdl, prntdotanj n` pravmtd

=7


17/41


prnpdrty rakets, stmcabaty n` ted àjmjoamb systdl, mjg m lngdst, ajonrrupt, mjg suppnrtavdstmtd mbb onjtracutd tn eake mjg stmcbd bnjk-ruj donjnlao krnwte. Lnrdnvdr, m`tdr lmjyydmrs n` trmjsatanj, lnst onujtrads n` ted `nrldr _nvadt Tjanj mrd stabb krmppbajk wateajstatutanjmb rd`nrls weabd onujtrads wate jmrrnwdr kmps tn obnsd, suoe ms _bnvdjam,Eujkmry, mjg Ynbmjg, quaohby dstmcbasedg ajstatutanjs vdry obnsd tn tensd n` ompatmbastdonjnlads. Weas bmttdr sdt n` Dmst Durnpdmj onujtrads mbsn pdr`nrldg cdttdr aj tdrls n`nutput krnwte (Sdgdh mjg _usfmj 3994).

Wed [nrbgwagd Knvdrjmjod Ajgaomtnrs ([KA) wdrd usdg aj ted ourrdjt stugy tn mssdssted pdr`nrlmjod n` eake- mjg laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.; Ms senwj aj Wmcbd ;, eake-ajonld donjnlads, ms m krnup, onjsastdjtby pdr`nrl cdttdr temj laggbd-ajonlddonjnlads aj tdrls n` mbb sax ajgaomtnrs mornss mbb vmramcbds.5 Wed rdsubts n` ted tdstsmbsn ajgaomtd sakjaàomjt ga``drdjods cdtwddj ted krnups. Wed sonrds n` ted knvdrjmjodajgaomtnrs `nr ted rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads tenuke mrd jnt ms strnjk ms tensd n`ted trmgatanjmb eake-ajonld krnup (Wmcbd 5).

Wmcbd ;6 Knvdrjmjod Ajgaomtnrs, Eake- vdrsus Laggbd-ajonld Donjnlads

Pnaod mjgMoonujtmcabaty

Ynbataomb_tmcabaty

KnvdrjldjtD``dotavdjdss

Sdkubmtnry]umbaty

Subd n`Bmw

Onjtrnb nÒnrruptanj


Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 =.?1 9.50 =.;? =.4= =.03 =.5?Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 9.;; 9.0? 9.14 =.9= 9.53 9.;0Laggbd ajonld ‟9.=0 ‟9.73 ‟9.== 9.93 ‟9.?= ‟9.?=


Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99



_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7c), moodssdg 3= Fuby 39=7.

; [KA onvdrs nvdr 399 donjnlads. At ldmsurds sax galdjsanjs n` knvdrjmjod6 vnaod mjg moonujtmcabaty8

pnbataomb stmcabaty mjg mcsdjod n` vanbdjod/tdrrnrasl8 knvdrjldjt d``dotavdjdss8 rdkubmtnry qumbaty8 rubd n`bmw8 mjg onjtrnb n` onrruptanj. Wedsd ajgaomtnrs mrd cmsdg nj sdvdrmb eujgrdg ajgavagumb vmramcbds, tmhdj`rnl m wagd vmradty n` gmtm snurods. Wed gmtm rd`bdot ted vadws nj knvdrjmjod n` ted survdyrdspnjgdjts mjg pucbao, pravmtd, mjg jnjknvdrjldjt sdotnr dxpdrts wnrbgwagd (Hmu`lmj, Hrmmy, mjgLmstruzza 39=9).

5

Wed sax knvdrjmjod ajgaomtnrs mrd ldmsurdg nj m sombd rmjkajk `rnl ‟3.4 tn +3.4, wate eakedr vmbudsrd`bdotajk cdttdr knvdrjmjod nutonlds.

=4


18/41


Wmcbd 56 Knvdrjmjod Ajgaomtnrs, _dbdotdg Onujtrads

Pnaod mjgMoonujtmcabaty

Ynbataomb_tmcabaty

KnvdrjldjtD``dotavdjdss

Sdkubmtnry]umbaty

Subd n`Bmw

Onjtrnb nÒnrruptanj

Eake Ajonld

@ajbmjg =.45 =.71 3.=7 =.;4 =.17 3.?1Tjatdg _tmtds =.33 9.77 =.07 =.47 =.44 =.4=Jnrwmy =.09 =.31 =.13 =.?1 =.1= 3.=3@rmjod =.34 9.40 =.40 =.=? =.7= =.?5

Eake Ajonld m`tdr =104

Fmpmj 9.11 =.99 =.?? 9.11 =.31 =.30Hnrdm, Sdp. 9.00 9.?4 9.1; 9.;0 9.19 9.7=Ornmtam 9.?5 9.7? 9.77 9.?4 ‟9.9= ‟9.9;Trukumy 9.15 9.;; 9.49 9.7? 9.47 =.99

Laggbd Ajonld

Crmzab 9.7= ‟9.93 9.97 9.=7 ‟9.?7 ‟9.9?

Oeabd =.93 9.;3 =.37 =.71 =.30 =.7=Lmbmysam ‟9.73 9.35 =.97 9.71 9.49 9.?=Yeabappajds ‟9.9= ‟=.=5 ‟9.9; ‟9.93 ‟9.75 ‟9.4;Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdp. n` ‟=.4? ‟9.70 ‟9.99 ‟9.37 ‟9.73 ‟9.71


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7c), moodssdg 3= Fuby 39=7.

7.4 Lmorndonjnlao _tmcabaty

Cusajdssds rdquard m stmcbd lmorndonjnlao djvarnjldjt `nr ajvdstldjt mjgprnguotanj pbmjjajk. Bmrkd oemjkds aj praods, `buotumtanjs aj ted dxoemjkd rmtd, mjggastnrtanjs aj ompatmb lmrhdts omusdg cy dxodssavd knvdrjldjt cnrrnwajk omj balat ted

krnwte prnodss. Ajgddg, knvdrjldjts aj Bmtaj Mldraom dxpdradjodg onjsagdrmcbdga`àoubty aj lmjmkajk ted lmorndonjnly `rnl ted lag-=1;9s tn ted dmrby =119s. Ymrtn` ted ajstmcabaty wms omusdg cy kbncmb prncbdls rdbmtdg tn nab praod eahds mjg tedrdsubtajk aj`bmtanj. Aj Bmtaj Mldraom‑s omsd, dxodssavd ajtdrjmtanjmb cnrrnwajk rdsubtdg ajmj aj`bmtanj-gdct sparmb temt sdvdrdby ajtdrruptdg ted gdvdbnpldjt prnodss. Ntedrrdkanjs emvd cddj m``dotdg cy ajstmcabaty, ms wdbb, mrasajk datedr `rnl spdoaào gnldstaoprncbdls mjg ajmgdqumtd pnbaoy ldmsurds, nr kbncmb senohs. Wed Dmst Msamj àjmjoamborasas n` =11;‟=115 stmbbdg ted gdvdbnpldjt prnodss aj pmrts n` Msam, mbtenuke lnstonujtrads wdrd mcbd tn rdstnrd stmcabaty mjg krnwte aj m `dw ydmrs cut wate bnwdrajvdstldjt bdvdbs.

Wmcbd 1 prnvagds ted rdsubts n` onlpmrasnjs cdtwddj ted donjnly krnups aj tdrls n`

aj`bmtanj mjg knvdrjldjt spdjgajk (surpbus/gdàoat). Aj teas omsd wd emvd gdvamtdg `rnlted usumb usd n` =9-ydmr pdrangs tn bnnh mt mvdrmkds mornss 39 ydmrs. Dvdj wate teasdxpmjgdg pdrang, at gnds jnt ajobugd Bmtaj Mldraom‑s bnst gdomgd n` ted =159s. At gnds,enwdvdr, ajobugd ted Msamj àjmjoamb orasas.

=0


19/41


Wmcbd 16 Lmorndonjnlao _tmcabaty, _dbdotdg Ajgaomtnrs

Aj`bmtanj

Knvdrjldjt OmseGdàoat/_urpbus

ms % n` KGY

mjjumb mvdrmkdmvdrmkd

ond`àoadjt

n` vmramtanj

Krnup Mvdrmkds (ldmj)

Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 5.; 9.4? ‟9.0;Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 33.0 =.9; ‟=.07Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 (lngaàdg) =4.= 9.55 ..

Laggbd ajonld ?9.1 =.77 ‟3.=5Laggbd ajonld (lngaàdg) =9.5 =.99 ..


Mbb EA vs. LA 9.91 9.99 9.14

Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.?9 9.?9 9.7=

Mbb EA vs. LA (lngaàdg) 9.=5 9.99 ..

Sdodjt EA vs. LA (lngaàdg) 9.9; 9.75 ..

t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.9? 9.35

Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.41

Mbb EA vs. LA (lngaàdg) 9.5= 9.97 ..

Sdodjt EA vs. LA (lngaàdg) 9.7= 9.99 .. KGY < krnss gnldstao prnguot, EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, LA < laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg 33 Fuby 39=7.

Aj`bmtanj ems cddj, nj mvdrmkd, eakedr aj laggbd-ajonld donjnlads. Wed nvdrmbb àkurdn` ?=% mjjumb aj`bmtanj `nr ted pdrang as gastnrtdg cy eypdraj`bmtanj dxpdradjodg cy m`dw donjnlads, jntmcby aj ted dmrby =119s. A` wd rdlnvd ted àvd donjnlads wate

mjjumb aj`bmtanj rmtd mcnvd =99%, ted mvdrmkd `mbbs tn ==% (Wmcbd 1, laggbd ajonldlngaàdg). Weas as odrtmajby stabb eake. @nr ted rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads, ted àkurdn` 3?% as mbsn eake cut as m``dotdg gasprnpnrtanjmtdby cy m crad` spdbb n` eypdraj`bmtanj ajOrnmtam. A` wd rdlnvd Ornmtam, ted mvdrmkd `mbbs tn =4% nvdr m 39-ydmr pdrang.

=;


20/41


Wmcbd =96 Lmorndonjnlao _tmcabaty, _dbdotdg Onujtrads

Aj`bmtanj Knvdrjldjt Omse

mvdrmkd mjjumb mvdrmkd ond`àoadjtn` vmramtanj

gdàoat/surpbusms % n` KGY

Eake Ajonld@rmjod 5.9 9.7 ‟?.;Tjatdg _tmtds 4.5 9.? ‟4.=Kdrlmjy =3.7 9.0 ‟=.5

Mustrmbam 1.5 =.9 ‟?.0Jnrwmy =7.1 =.= =7.=

Eake Ajonld m`tdr=104

Hnrdm, Sdp. n` ==.7 9.0 =.;Fmpmj 4.5 9.? ‟4.=Eujkmry =4.9 9.0 ‟4.=Oeabd ;.= 9.; 3.9Sussamj @dgdrmtanj =49.1 3.7 7.9

Laggbd Ajonld

Crmzab 375.? 3.0 ‟3.?Yeabappajds 0.3 9.5 ‟3.7Lmbmysam ?.; =.9 ‟?.?Wurhdy 7=.; 9.1 ‟3.4Wemabmjg ?.3 9.5 9.=Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdp. 7.9 9.; ..


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs, cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl ted [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg 33 Fuby 39=7.

[d emvd mbsn omboubmtdg ted ond`àoadjt n` vmramtanj, tn tdst wedtedr aj`bmtanj as eakebyvmramcbd. Wed rdsubts `nbbnw m salabmr pmttdrj wate eake-ajonld donjnlads

gdlnjstrmtajk bdss vmramcabaty temj laggbd-ajonld njds. Nvdrmbb, ga``drdjods cdtwddjlaggbd-ajonld mjg rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads mrd jnt stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt. Mjntedr ldmsurd n` lmorndonjnlao stmcabaty as ted sazd n` ted cugkdt gdàoat. [d àjgtemt gdàoats nj mvdrmkd mrd slmbbdr aj eake-ajonld donjnlads cut ted ga``drdjods mrdjnt stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt (Wmcbds 1 mjg =9).

7.0 @ajmjoamb _ystdl Gdvdbnpldjt

M rncust àjmjoamb systdl as mbsn alpnrtmjt `nr donjnlao gdvdbnpldjt. Wed systdlprnvagds m vdeaobd `nr smvajk mjg oemjjdbs smvajks ajtn ajvdstldjt tn dxpmjgprnguotavd ompmoaty. Wed àjmjoamb systdl mbsn prnvagds m pmyldjt systdl tn `moabatmtdonlldroamb trmjsmotanjs.

_ajod ted dmrby =119s, m julcdr n` stugads emvd `nujg m strnjk pnsatavd onrrdbmtanjcdtwddj àjmjoamb sdotnr gdvdbnpldjt mjg donjnlao krnwte (`nr m rdvadw sdd Veumjkdt mb. 3991). Ymte-crdmhajk stugads cy Hajk mjg Bdvajd (=11?m, =11?c) senwdg temt monujtry wnubg krnw cy mj mggatanjmb =% mjjumbby a` ats àjmjoamb gdpte (rmtan n` baquagbamcabatads tn KGY) wdrd tn ajordmsd `rnl ted ldmj n` ted sbnwdst krnwajk onujtrads tntemt n` ted `mstdr krnwajk. Wed stugads sukkdst temt àjmjoamb gdpte omj dxpbmaj mcnut39% n` ted krnwte ga``drdjod cdtwddj sbnw- mjg `mst-krnwajk onujtrads nvdr ted pdrang=109‟=151. M sucsdqudjt stugy `nujg temt ted rdsubts edbg wedj onjtrnbbajk `nrsalubtmjdaty cams (Bdvajd, Bnmyzm, mjg Cdoh 3999). @urtedrlnrd, ted onjtracutanj n`àjmjoamb sdotnr gdvdbnpldjt tn donjnlao krnwte as mbsn bahdby tn cd lnrd sakjaàomjtmjg lnrd pdrsastdjt aj gdvdbnpajk onujtrads temj aj gdvdbnpdg njds (Lmvrntms mjg

_nj 3990).

=5


21/41


Gud tn ted ajedrdjt rashs mssnoamtdg wate ajvdstldjts aj eakedr vmbud knngs temt lmycd jdw tn ted gnldstao mjg, snldtalds, kbncmb donjnly, tedrd as n`tdj m gdmrte n`bnw-onst, bnjk-tdrl àjmjod aj tedsd mrdms. _nld knvdrjldjts, pmrtaoubmrby aj Dmst Msam, emvd usdg knvdrjldjt àjmjoajk nr ordgat sucsagads tn suppnrt tedsd jdw mjgdldrkajk prnguodrs. Wed qudstanj n` wedtedr tedsd ordgat suppnrts wdrd mùjgmldjtmb ajkrdgadjt aj ted suoodss n` ted eake-krnwte Msamj donjnlads wms m hdypnajt n` onjtdjtanj aj ted gdcmtd rdkmrgajk ted larmobd donjnlads. _pdoaào Msamjknvdrjldjts usdg bnw-onst ordgat ms mj ajodjtavd tn onlpmjads temt wdrd mcbd tnmoeadvd prnguotanj mjg dxpnrt tmrkdts aj hdy sdotnrs. Ms suoe, knvdrjldjts bnwdrdgted onst n` ompatmb aj tensd mrdms temt wdrd ajedrdjtby eake rash. [edtedr ntedrdonjnlads, watenut m gasajtdrdstdg mjg pnbataombby seadbgdg curdmuormoy, omjsuoodssùbby gdpbny salabmr ajodjtavd ldoemjasls, rdlmajs mj assud. _uoeldoemjasls lmy njby wnrh wedrd m gdvdbnpldjtmb stmtd dxasts.

Wed assud n` àjmjoamb sdotnr suppnrt `nr krnwte ems m``dotdg ted nutonlds n` àjmjoambgdrdkubmtanj pnbaoads mjg àjmjoamb orasds nvdr ted pmst sdvdrmb gdomgds. [eabd àjmjoambgdrdkubmtanj, jntmcby ajordmsdg àjmjoamb sdotnr onlpdtatanj mjg ted dbalajmtanj n`

ajtdrdst rmtd onjtrnbs, wms jddgdg aj lmjy gdvdbnpajk onujtrads, rmpag bacdrmbazmtanjems n`tdj bdg tn orasas. Wed sdqudjod n` rmpag gdrdkubmtanj mjg orasas m``dotdg lmjyBmtaj Mldraomj onujtrads aj ted =159s, jntmcby ujgdr ted prdsoraptanjs n` ted[mseajktnj Onjsdjsus, mjg onjtracutdg tn ted bnst gdomgd n` ted =159s. Aj Msam, tedàjmjoamb mjg ourrdjoy orasas n` =11;‟=115 ombbdg ajtn qudstanj ted Msamj krnwte lngdbmjg ted rnbd n` ted àjmjoamb sdotnr. Hdy eake-krnwte donjnlads wdrd m``dotdg8 jntmcbytensd wate edmvy `nrdakj aj`bnws mjg bdss-temj-mgdqumtd cmjhajk supdrvasanj mjgonjtrnbs. Wed Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm wms edmvaby m``dotdg mjg, ajgddg, sbappdg crad`by `rnleake- tn laggbd-ajonld stmtus ms m rdsubt n` ted orasas. Wedsd donjnlads emvd,enwdvdr, rdkmajdg lnldjtul sajod mjg senrdg up tedar àjmjoamb sdotnrs cy cuabgajk mouseanj mkmajst ùrtedr ourrdjoy rujs cy mooulubmtajk `nrdakj rdsdrvds. Msamj àjmjoambsdotnrs wdrd jnt ted omusd n`, mjg wdrd mcbd tn rdsast onjtmkanj `rnl, ted T_-bdgkbncmb àjmjoamb orasas n` 3995‟3991.

Wmcbd == prnvagds cmsao ldmsurds n` ted àjmjoamb systdl mjg senws ted rdsubts n`tdsts `nr ga``drdjods cdtwddj eake- mjg laggbd-ajonld krnups. Wmcbd =3 prnvagds gmtm`nr m julcdr n` sdbdotdg onujtrads.

Wmcbd ==6 @ajmjoamb _dotnr Gdvdbnpldjt, Eake- vdrsus Laggbd-ajonld Donjnlads

Lnjdy _uppby(L3)

Gnldstao Ordgattn Yravmtd _dotnr

Jnj-pdr`nrlajkBnmjs

Ajtdrdst Smtd_prdmg

ms % n` KGY ms % n` KGY ms % n` tntmb bnmjs bdjgajk‟gdpnsatKrnup Mvdrmkd (ldmj)

Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd=104 4=.? 7?.4 3.4 =9.7

Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 44.4 75.0 0.4 7.=Laggbd ajonld 0;.9 71.0 4.7 5.;


Mbb EA vs. LA 9.5= 9.04 9.9= 9.9?Sdodjt Ea vs. LA 9.53 9.37 9.00 9.9?t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.=5 9.0= 9.74 9.;=Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.7= 9.1? 9.4? 9.9?

KGY < krnss gnldstao prnguot, EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, LA < laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg =4 Fuby 39=7.

=1


22/41


Wmcbd =36 @ajmjoamb _dotnr Gdvdbnpldjt, _dbdotdg Onujtrads

Lnjdy _uppby(L3) ms % n` KGY

Gnldstao Ordgattn Yravmtd _dotnr

ms % n` KGY

Jnj-pdr`nrlajkBnmjs tn Wntmb

Bnmjs, %

Ajtdrdst Smtd_prdmg

(bdjgajk‟gdpnsat)%

Eake Ajonld

Tjatdg _tmtds 0;.0 50.0 3.5 j/mKdrlmjy j/m 0=.7 ?.3 7.5Tjatdg Hajkgnl ?0.? =1.5 3.; 3.9Jnrwmy 71.? ??.7 =.= ;.;Atmby 0;.7 09.5 1.4 0.9


Fmpmj ;7.1 59.? 3.= ?.0

Hnrdm, Sdp. n` 74.0 7?.7 9.0 9.3

Oeabd ;4.9 55.3 =.; ?.;

Sussamj @dgdrmtanj 7=.5 ?0.4 4.0 0.9

Ynbmjg 74.7 ??.1 4.9 7.;

Laggbd Ajonld

Crmzab 0?.9 70.? ?.7 ?4.0_nute M`raom ;4.3 =7;.0 ?.5 ?.1Lmbmysam =?=.4 =91.= 7.; 3.5Yeabappajds 41.= ?9.4 7.= 7.?Wemabmjg ==0.3 ==4.7 4.? 7.?Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdpucbao n` =0;.; =3=.5 ?.? ?.3

KGY < krnss gnldstao prnguot.


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg = Jnvdlcdr 39=7.

@nr àjmjoamb gdpte wd onjsagdr twn ldmsurds6 ted lnjdy suppby (L3), mjg gnldstaoordgat tn ted pravmtd sdotnr, cnte ldmsurdg ms m pdrodjtmkd n` KGY. @nr lnjdy suppby,tedrd as battbd ga``drdjod cdtwddj eake- mjg laggbd-ajonld donjnlads, ms ldmsurdg cyted p-vmbuds n` ted twn tdsts. Ajgddg, ted ldmj sonrd `nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads,0;%, as sbaketby mcnvd temt n` ted twn eake-ajonld krnups (4=% mjg 40%). _nldlaggbd-ajonld donjnlads, suoe ms Wemabmjg mjg Lmbmysam, emvd m bmrkd L3 rdbmtavd tnted sazd n` ted donjnly8 mcnvd =99% aj cnte omsds. @nr lnst donjnlads, aj mbbkrnups, ted àkurd rmjkds `rnl 79% tn ;9%. Wed ntedr ldmsurd n` àjmjoamb gdpte‗ordgat tn ted pravmtd sdotnr‗mbsn gnds jnt senw sakjaàomjt ga``drdjods cdtwddj teddonjnly krnups. Nj mvdrmkd, cmjh ordgat mvdrmkds 7?%‟49% n` KGY.

Laggbd-ajonld donjnlads emvd eakedr bdvdbs n` jnj-pdr`nrlajk bnmjs (JYBs) temj tedtrmgatanjmb eake-ajonld donjnlads, mt 4.7% vdrsus 3.4%. Wed ga``drdjod as stmtastaombbysakjaàomjt. Enwdvdr, rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads emvd sbaketby eakedr bdvdbs temjlaggbd-ajonld donjnlads cut ted ga``drdjod as jnt sakjaàomjt. Lmbmysam mjg Wemabmjgemvd rmtds n` 7.;% mjg 4.?% rdspdotavdby, weaoe lmy cd pnssacby rdbmtdg tn tedm`tdrlmte n` ted Msamj àjmjoamb orasas mjg ted eake ordgat ordmtanj dvagdjodg cy tedgmtm nj rdbmtdg ajgaomtnrs mcnvd.

M ldmsurd n` d`àoadjoy mjg ted onlpdtatavdjdss n` ted àjmjoamb sdotnr as ted sprdmgcdtwddj ajtdrdsts nj bnmjs mjg gdpnsats. M bnwdr sprdmg prnvagds ajodjtavds tn smvdrsweabd onjtmajajk ted onst tn cnrrnwdrs. Moonrgajk tn teas ldmsurd, tedrd as m sakjaàomjtga``drdjod cdttdr eake- mjg laggbd-ajonld donjnlads. [eabd ted trmgatanjmb eake-ajonlddonjnlads emvd emg eake sprdmgs (=9.7 pdrodjtmkd pnajts), ted rmtd `nr rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads (7.= pdrodjtmkd pnajts) as bnwdr temj `nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads

39


23/41


(5.; pdrodjtmkd pnajts). Weus, ted bnwdr rmtd n` ordgat mbbnomtdg tn ted pravmtd sdotnr ajlaggbd-ajonld donjnlads lmy cd moonujtdg `nr, aj pmrt, cy m eakedr onst n` ordgat.@rnl nur krnup n` sdbdotdg donjnlads, Crmzab stmjgs nut ms emvajk m vdry bmrkdsprdmg, mvdrmkajk ?0 pdrodjtmkd pnajts. Ntedr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads senwsprdmgs nj pmr wate eake-ajonld donjnlads, ajobugajk ted terdd _nutedmst Msamjdonjnlads.

7.; _mvajks mjg Ajvdstldjt

M hdy ajkrdgadjt tn ajordmsajk ted prnguotavd ompmoaty n` mj donjnly as ted mcabaty tnkmtedr smvajks mjg oemjjdb tedl ajtn ajvdstldjt. Crnmgby, ted ajvdstldjt rmtd gndslarrnr ted smvajks rmtd. Jnrtedmst Msamj donjnlads mrd wdbb hjnwj `nr tedar eakesmvajks rmtds ms m snurod n` cuabgajk ompmoaty gurajk ted eake krnwte gdomgds.

Wedrd mrd onjsagdrmcbd ga``drdjods aj smvajks rmtd cdtwddj eake- mjg laggbd-ajonlddonjnlads, ms senwj aj Wmcbd =?. Eake-ajonld donjnlads smvd mrnujg 34% n` KGY,nj mvdrmkd, weabd ted rmtd `nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads as bnwdr mt =5%. Wed rdguodgsmvajks rmtds trmjsbmtd ajtn ajvdstldjt rmtds temt mrd 4 pdrodjtmkd pnajts bnwdr ajlaggbd-ajonld donjnlads. Wed ga``drdjods, aj smvajks, ajvdstldjt, mjg àxdgajvdstldjt rmtds, mrd stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt ternukenut ted vmranus tdsts.

Wmcbd =?6 _mvajks mjg Ajvdstldjt, Eake- mjg Laggbd-ajonld DonjnladsOnlpmrdg

_mvajksms % n` KGY

KrnssOmpatmb @nrlmtanj

(ajvdstldjt)ms % n` KGY

@axdg Ompatmb@nrlmtanj

(àxdg ajvdstldjt)ms % n` KGY


Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 30 3; 34Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 34 3; 34

Laggbd ajonld =5 33 33


Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.9? 9.9? 9.94t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.97 9.93 9.97

KGY < krnss gnldstao prnguot, EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, LA < laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs, cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg =4 Fuby 39=7.

Wed ga``drdjods omj cd sddj lnrd grmlmtaombby aj ted ajgavagumb donjnly gmtm,prdsdjtdg aj Wmcbd =7. Mjjumb ajvdstldjt rmtds wdrd rdvadwdg `nr ted ?9-ydmr pdrang`rnl =1;5 tn 3995. Wed àrst onbulj aj ted tmcbd senws ted julcdr n` ydmrs aj weaoeted ajvdstldjt rmtd wms cdbnw 39% n` KGY. Wed sdonjg onbulj ajgaomtds ted ydmrs ajweaoe at wms mcnvd ?9%. Aj Dmst Msam, ajvdstldjt `dbb cdbnw 39% `nr njby 3 ydmrs aj_ajkmpnrd mjg jnt mt mbb aj ted ntedr terdd donjnlads, gdlnjstrmtajk vdry onjsastdjtajvdstldjt pmttdrjs. Aj mggatanj, rmtds nvdr ?9% wdrd moeadvdg `rdqudjtby aj _ajkmpnrdmjg ted Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm. Aj onjtrmst, ajvdstldjt aj Bmtaj Mldraom wms luoe bnwdr, ajpmrt cdomusd ted ?9-ydmr pdrang ajobugds ted bnst gdomgd n` ted =159s. Mbb donjnladsaj temt rdkanj, dxodpt Oeabd, dxpdradjodg mt bdmst =9 ydmrs aj weaoe ajvdstldjt wmscdbnw 39% mjg fust nvdr emb` n` ted donjnlads wdrd cdbnw temt bdvdb `nr lnrd temj =4n` ted ?9 ydmrs.

3=


24/41


Wmcbd =76 Eake mjg Bnw Ajvdstldjt Smtds, =157‟39=?

Jn. n` ydmrs cdtwddj =157‟39=? (?9 ydmrs) temt ajvdstldjt ms prnpnrtanj n`KGY wms6

2 39% : ?9% 2 39% : ?9%

Dmst Msam Bmtaj Mldraom, LA_ajkmpnrd = =1 Db _mbvmgnr ?9 9Hnrdm, Sdp. n` 9 3= Cnbavam 31 9Fmpmj 3 4 Kumtdlmbm 34 9Enjk Hnjk, Oeajm 9 7 Crmzab 33 9

Mrkdjtajm 30 9_nutedmst Msam Onstm Saom =? 9Lmbmysam = 1 Gnlajaomj Sdpucbao =? 9Wemabmjg 9 == Ydru =7 =Yeabappajds =? 9 Ymrmkumy =1 9

Ldxaon =9 9Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdp. n` 9 ?9

Bmtaj Mldraom, EA

Oeabd ? 9

Trukumy 35 9KGY < krnss gnldstao prnguot, EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, LA < laggbd-ajonld donjnlads.


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg =4 Fuby 39=7.

Ms wdbb, jnjd n` ted Bmtaj Mldraomj donjnlads, wate ted dxodptanj n` Crmzab, ajvdstdglnrd temj ?9% n` KGY aj mjy ydmr gurajk ted ?9-ydmr pdrang. Weus, ted rdkanj‑sompmoaty tn krnw ems cddj sta`bdg cy ats bnw ajvdstldjt aj prnguotavd ompmoaty. Wedterdd _nutedmst Msamj donjnlads senw laxdg rdsubts. Lmbmysam mjg Wemabmjgrdsdlcbd eake-ajonld donjnlads cdomusd ted ajvdstldjt rmtd gappdg cdbnw 39% njbynjod mjg wms `rdqudjtby mcnvd ?9%. Jntd temt teas pdrang ajobugds ted Msamj àjmjoamborasas ydmrs n` =11;‟=115.1 Wed Yeabappajds, enwdvdr, dxpdradjodg bnw ajvdstldjt `nr

=? n` ted ?9 ydmrs mjg jdvdr surpmssdg ted ?9% lmrh.

7.5 Ajdqumbaty

Eake ajonld ajdqumbaty lmy alpdgd ted krnwte prnodss mjg balat prnkrdss up tedajonld bmggdr. @nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads, tedrd lmy cd `nur oemjjdbs cy weaoeteas noours. @arst, bnw-ajonld enusdenbgs emvd balatdg puroemsajk pnwdr mjg teusonjtracutd battbd tn gnldstao gdlmjg. _donjg, eake ajdqumbaty rdsubts aj bnw eulmjompatmb gdvdbnpldjt ms gdodjt dguomtanj mjg edmbte omrd mrd jnt m``nrgmcbd tn m bmrkdcmsd n` bnw-ajonld enusdenbgs. Ms m rdsubt, wnrhdrs `rnl tedsd enusdenbgs mrd bdssmcbd tn onjtracutd eake prnguotavaty tn ted krnwte prnodss. Ajstdmg, tedy mrd stuoh ajbnw-pmag fncs, aj`nrlmb wnrh, nr survavmbast sdb`-dlpbnyldjt mjg cdonld djsjmrbdg aj mpnvdrty trmp temt as pdrpdtumtdg mornss kdjdrmtanjs.

Wed tearg oemjjdb as salabmr tn ted àrst cut rdbmtds tn vmbud aj ted prnguotanj-onjsulptanj oyobd. M teaoh laggbd obmss jnt njby cnnsts gdlmjg kdjdrmbby, at mbsnordmtds gdlmjg `nr eakedr vmbud knngs mjg sdrvaods. Wedsd laggbd-obmss knngsajobugd enusdenbg mppbamjods, dbdotrnjaos, mutnlncabds, mjg bdasurd sdrvaods. Wedbalatdg gdlmjg `nr tedsd knngs ldmjs temt tedy mrd bdss bahdby tn cd prnguodggnldstaombby. Weus, pmrt n` ted donjnly kdts stuoh aj m bnw-ajonld prnguotanj-onjsulptanj dquabacraul aj weaoe bnw-vmbud knngs mrd prnguodg tn suppby ted gdlmjg`rnl bnw-ajonld enusdenbgs, weabd ted gdlmjg `nr laggbd- mjg eake-ajonld knngsrdlmajs stujtdg. Gnldstao àrls mrd bdss bahdby tn ajvdst aj ted prnguotanj n` eakedr

1 Aj Wemabmjg, ajvdstldjt `dbb tn 39% aj =115 mjg 3=% aj =111.

33


25/41


vmbud knngs mjg sdrvaods mjg mrd jnt bahdby tn moeadvd donjnlads n` sombd nr djkmkd ajtdoejnbnkaomb bdmrjajk. Wed slmbb laggbd obmss rdsnrts tn alpnrts tn smtas`y wmjts temtomjjnt cd smtasàdg cy gnldstao àrls.

@nurte, ajdqumbaty omj emlpdr ajvdstldjt mjg krnwte a` at spabbs nvdr ajtn snoamb ujrdst.

Wed pnnr lmy `ddb m sdjsd n` donjnlao ajfustaod nr temt pnbaoads gasoralajmtd mkmajsttedl. Wedy lmy vdjt tedar `rustrmtanj ternuke prntdsts nr mrldg ajsurrdotanj.Gdlnormtao knvdrjldjts lmy rdspnjg cy alpbdldjtajk pnpubast pnbaoads temt omjrdguod ajdqumbaty. Enwdvdr, suoe pnbaoads omj mbsn bdmg tn àsomb alcmbmjods mjg mrasajk gdct curgdj, ms noourrdg aj sdvdrmb Bmtaj Mldraomj onujtrads aj ted =1;9s mjg=159s.

Ajdqumbaty as luoe eakedr aj Bmtaj Mldraom temj ntedr pmrts n` ted wnrbg mjg emb` n` tedonujtrads aj nur laggbd-ajonld krnup mrd `rnl temt njd rdkanj. Weas sukkdsts mpnssacbd bajh cdtwddj ajdqumbaty mjg laggbd-ajonld stmkjmtanj. Wn gdtdrlajd tedpnssacbd bajhs cdtwddj ajdqumbaty mjg onujtry ajonld, wd tdstdg `nr ga``drdjods aj tedKaja ond`àoadjt. Ms Kaja dstalmtds omj vmry onjsagdrmcby, wd mvdrmkdg ted rdsubts n`

vmranus stugads aj ted [AGDS (39=7) gmtmcmsd. Weas mbbnwdg us tn slnnte nutmjnlmbads rdsubtajk `rnl ted ga``drdjt ldtengnbnkads dlpbnydg. Kaja ond`àoadjts emvdm pnssacbd rmjkd n` 9 tn = cut aj rdmbaty tdjg tn rmjkd `rnl 9.34 (vdry dqumb) tn 9.04(vdry ujdqumb).

Wed =7 Bmtaj Mldraomj onujtrads aj nur smlpbd emg mj mvdrmkd Kaja n` 9.43 nvdr ted=9-ydmr pdrang `rnl =111 njwmrg.=9 Weas àkurd dxmkkdrmtds ted rdkanj‑s ourrdjt bdvdbn` ajdqumbaty cdomusd ajdqumbaty ems gdobajdg snldwemt aj rdodjt ydmrs. Cy njddstalmtd, ted Bmtaj Mldraomj Kaja ems gdordmsdg cy mj mjjumb rmtd n` =.=% nvdr m ;‟5ydmr pdrang cdkajjajk aj 3999 (Bustak 39=9). Wemt gdobajd lmy cd mttracutdg tn m `mbb ajted dmrjajks kmp cdtwddj ujshabbdg mjg shabbdg bmcnr (weaoe as rdbmtdg tn dxpmjgdgdguomtanj) mjg tn mj ajordmsd aj tmrkdtdg knvdrjldjt trmjs`drs tn ted pnnr (Bustak39=9). Jnjdtedbdss, ajdqumbaty aj ted rdkanj as eakedr temj aj nur laggbd-ajonld krnupms m wenbd mjg onjsagdrmcby mcnvd ted mvdrmkd `nr ted rdodjt eake-ajonld krnup n`9.?; (Wmcbd =4).

Wmcbd =46 Ajdqumbaty, Ldmsurdg cy Kaja Ond`àoadjt

Kaja ond`àoadjt


Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 ?;Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 ?;Laggbd ajonld 74

Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdp. n` 70Hrushmb-[mbbas, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99t-tdsts, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99



_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [AGDS (39=7), moodssdg =4 Fuby 39=7.

=9 Omboubmtajk m Kaja ond`àoadjt as jnt mj dxmot soadjod mjg ajvnbvds ga``drdjods aj ldtengnbnky mjg ted

gmtm usdg. Wed rdsubts `rnl ga``drdjt stugads `nr ted smld ydmr omj ga``dr cy sdvdrmb pdrodjtmkd pnajts. Ms m rdsubt, wd mvdrmkdg ted rdsubts `rnl vmranus stugads rdpnrtdg aj ted [AGDS gmtmsdt. Wed julcdr

n` stugads aj ted gmtmsdt `nr dmoe =9-ydmr pdrang omj ga``dr krdmtby. @nr dxmlpbd, `nr Mustrmbam tedrd mrd34 stugads cdtwddj =10= mjg =1;9, weabd `nr Mustram, tedrd as njby njd stugy `nr temt pdrang.

3?


26/41


@urtedrlnrd, nur omboubmtanjs ajgaomtd temt == n` 3? laggbd-ajonld donjnlads emg mjmvdrmkd Kaja mcnvd 9.74. Weas onlpmrds tn 7 n` ?3 eake-ajonld donjnlads (Wmcbd =0).Wed Yeabappajds, weaoe ems m _pmjase onbnjamb edratmkd bahd lmjy onujtrads aj Bmtaj Mldraom, mbsn ems eake ajdqumbaty mt 9.7;. Ats Msamj jdakecnrs mrd sbaketby bnwdr mt 9.70`nr Wemabmjg mjg 9.73 `nr Lmbmysam. At lmy onld ms jn surprasd temt nur stmtastaomb tdstssenw eakeby sakjaàomjt ga``drdjods cdtwddj laggbd- mjg eake-ajonld krnups.

Wmcbd =06 Ajdqumbaty, _dbdotdg Donjnlads

DonjnlyKrnups Kaja Ond`àoadjt (mvdrmkd)

Donjnlads wate Mvdrmkd KajaOnd`àoadjt mt/mcnvd 74

Bnwdst Eakedst Julcdr %

Wrmgatanjmb eakeajonld Mustrmbam/Mustram 31 Jdw Vdmbmjg 49 ? n` =; =5Sdodjt eakeajonld Ozdoe Sdpucbao 30 Oeabd 43 = n` =4 ;Laggbd ajonld

Cdbmrus 31 _nute M`raom 0= == n` 3? 75Jntd6 _dd Mppdjgax `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj.

_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl [AGDS (39=7), moodssdg ==4 Fuby 39=7.

Ajdqumbaty as m sakjaàomjt onjodrj ourrdjtby aj ted YSO wedrd at ems ajordmsdg ajpmrmbbdb wate rmpag KGY krnwte. Edrd mkmaj Kaja ond`àoadjt dstalmtds vmry onjsagdrmcbycmsdg nj ted jmturd n` ted stugy onjguotdg, cut tnkdtedr prnvagd snld paoturd n` tedtrdjg. Wed mvdrmkd Kaja wms 9.?; `nr ted =3 stugads n` ted YSO onjguotdg cdtwddj=111 mjg 3997 mjg rdonrgdg cy [AGDS (39=7). Wed twn stugads `nr 3997 sukkdst atwms fust mcnvd 9.74, weaoe as eake cy ajtdrjmtanjmb stmjgmrgs.==

Ajdqumbaty as m onjodrj aj ted YSO cdomusd n` ats pntdjtamb tn akjatd snoamb ujrdst. At lmymbsn rdtmrg krnwte, mbtenuke at gnds jnt mppdmr tn emvd emg mj alpmot nvdr ted pmst 3gdomgds wedj ajdqumbaty wms rasajk cut ted krnwte rmtd rdlmajdg vdry eake.

@urtedrlnrd, m rdodjt stugy sukkdsts temt ted ajordmsd aj dqumbaty up tn ted lag-3999smppdmrs tn emvd bdvdbdg n`` aj 3994‟3995 (Baj, Veumjk, mjg Qmroam 39=9). Aj dmrby wnrhnj T_ ajdqumbaty, _alnj Huzjdts (=144) sukkdstdg temt ajdqumbaty wabb àrst rasd ms monujtry gdvdbnps mjg tedj `mbb dvdj ms ajonld onjtajuds tn ajordmsd. Wed YSO lmyemvd rdmoedg suoe m ‒Huzjdts turjajk pnajt,“ wate m pnssacbd gdordmsd tn cd dxpdotdgaj ted ydmrs medmg. Enwdvdr, at senubg cd jntdg temt ted T_, wate ted wnrbg‑s bmrkdstdonjnly, rdkastdrdg m Kaja n` 9.70 aj 3997, weaoe as eake cy ajtdrjmtanjmb stmjgmrgs. Mlnjk ted àvd eake-krnwte Msamj donjnlads, tedrd as m laxdg rdonrg. Enjk Hnjk,Oeajm mjg _ajkmpnrd emvd rdbmtavdby eake rmtds (cnte mt 9.73), mbtenuke tedy mrd cdbnwBmtaj Mldraomj bdvdbs. Wed bmrkdr donjnlads n` Fmpmj mjg ted Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm emvdbnwdr Kajas mt 9.?; mjg 9.??, rdspdotavdby, weabd Wmapda,Oeajm pnstdg m vdry dqumb 9.31.Wedsd bmttdr àkurds mrd ted mvdrmkds `nr stugads gurajk ted =9 ydmrs aj ted ruj up tn

krmgumtanj.

7.1 Dguomtanj

Wed dguomtanj mjg shabbs n` ted wnrh`nrod mrd orataomb tn rmasajk prnguotavaty mjgdonjnlao krnwte. Hjnwbdgkdmcbd wnrhdrs mrd jddgdg mt mbb bdvdbs n` ted donjnly,`rnl senp `bnnr wnrhdrs wen npdrmtd dquapldjt mjg djkajddrs wen ajvdjt jdwprnodssds mjg prnguots, tn knvdrjldjt n`àoambs wen orm`t mjg alpbdldjt pnbaoads. Mvmradty n` stugads gdlnjstrmtd ted bajh cdtwddj ted bdvdb mjg qumbaty n` dguomtanj mjg

==

[AGDS (39=7) prnvagds m àkurd n` 9.701 `nr 39978 Omaj, Emsmj, mjg Lmksnlcnb (39=9) kdjdrmtd màkurd n` 9.7;34, mbsn `nr 39978 mjg Baj, Veumjk, mjg Qmroam (39=9) prnguod m rdsubt n` 9.70 `nr 3994.

37


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KGY krnwte (Emjusedh mjg [ndsslmjj 399;, 3995, 39918 Mtedrtnj, Mppbdtnj, mjgCbdmjdy 39958 D. Fmlasnj, G. Fmlasnj, mjg Emjusedh 399;).

Wmcbds =; mjg =5 prnvagd gmtm nj dguomtanjmb mttmajldjt, weaoe as m qumjtatmtavdldmsurd. Wed omtdknry ‒mt bdmst pralmry“ ajgaomtds ted semrd n` ted pnpubmtanj mkdg =4

mjg mcnvd wate mt bdmst snld pralmry dguomtanj, temt as, at ajobugds mbb krmgumtds n` tedpralmry, sdonjgmry, mjg tdrtamry bdvdbs mjg tensd wate snld pralmry, sdonjgmry, mjgtdrtamry dguomtanj. M salabmr mpprnmoe as tmhdj `nr ted ntedr omtdknrads. Wed gmtm mrd`rnl ted Cmrrn-Bdd gmtmcmsd (Cmrrn mjg Bdd 39=9), weaoe prnvagds `akurds `nr dvdry`a`te ydmr.

Wmcbd =;6 Dguomtanjmb Mttmajldjt, Eake- vdrsus Laggbd-ajonld Donjnlads

Ydrodjtmkd n` Ynpubmtanj Mkdg =4 nr nvdr wate6

mt bdmst snldpralmry

dguomtanj

mt bdmst snldsdonjgmrydguomtanj

mt bdmst snldtdrtamry

dguomtanj


Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 1; ?0 ;Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 51 4? 5Laggbd ajonld 5; 4? ==


Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.95 9.9=Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.?4 9.17 9.=3t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.9? 9.== 9.9=Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.;= 9.14 9.==



_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm `rnl Cmrrn mjg Bdd (39=9).

Wmcbd =56 Dguomtanjmb Mttmajldjt, _dbdotdg Onujtrads

Mt BdmstYralmry

Mt Bdmst_donjgmry

Wdrtamry

% n` pnpubmtanj mkdg =4 mjg nvdr

Eake Ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104

Tjatdg _tmtds 15 ;9 =;Kdrlmjy 15 37 ?_wdgdj 11 ?; 0

Mustrmbam 11 00 =;


Fmpmj 11 7= ;Hnrdm, Sdp. n` 13 45 39

Oeabd 10 0; 33Eujkmry 11 ;9 ==

Laggbd Ajonld

Crmzab 50 77 0Lmbmysam 51 01 ==Yeabappajds 14 07 30Wemabmjg 5; ?3 ;Oeajm, Ydnpbd‑s Sdpucbao n` 19 0= 4


_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm `rnl Cmrrn mjg Bdd (39=9).

Ga``drdjods aj dguomtanjmb mttmajldjt cdtwddj eake- mjg laggbd-ajonld donjnlads

prdsdjt m rmtedr laxdg paoturd. Wrmgatanjmb eake-ajonld donjnlads emvd m eakedr

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mvdrmkd bdvdb n` pralmry dguomtanj cut bnwdr bdvdbs n` sdonjgmry mjg tdrtamry dguomtanj. Mvdrmkd mttmajldjt `nr rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads as, enwdvdr, salabmr tn temt n`laggbd-ajonld donjnlads‗`nr sdonjgmry dguomtanj ted mvdrmkds mrd, aj `mot, tedsmld (4?% n` ted pnpubmtanj). Weas lmy jnt cd sn surprasajk kavdj temt moodss tnsoennbajk ems dxpmjgdg mrnujg ted wnrbg aj lnrd rdodjt gdomgds mjg wd mrd usajkga``drdjt tald pdrangs `nr ted terdd donjnly krnups.

Ms m rdsubt, ted twn tdsts senw jn sakjaàomjt ga``drdjods cdtwddj ted rdodjt eake-ajonld mjg ted laggbd-ajonld krnups. Wedy gn senw, enwdvdr, sakjaàomjt ga``drdjodscdtwddj mbb eake-ajonld donjnlads mjg laggbd-ajonld donjnlads. Wedsd ga``drdjods`nr sdonjgmry mjg tdrtamry dguomtanj stdl `rnl eakedr dguomtanjmb bdvdbs aj laggbd-ajonld donjnlads temj aj trmgatanjmb eake-ajonld donjnlads. Ms m rdsubt, tedy rujonujtdr tn ted agdm temt raoe donjnlads emvd m lnrd dguomtdg wnrh`nrod (nr emg eakedrbdvdbs aj ted ruj up tn krmgumtanj).

Ga``drdjods aj ted qumbaty n` dguomtanj mrd luoe lnrd sakjaàomjt mjg `nbbnw teddxpdotdg ajtuatanj. Edrd wd usd gmtm nj stugdjt pdr`nrlmjod `rnl ted tradjjamb survdy

n` ted Yrnkrmlld `nr Ajtdrjmtanjmb _tugdjt Mssdssldjt nr YA_M (NDOG 39=7). Wedsurvdy mssdssds ted pdr`nrlmjod n` =4-ydmr-nbgs aj soadjod, lmtedlmtaos, mjgrdmgajk, mjg prnvagds m cmsas `nr lmhajk ajtdrjmtanjmb onlpmrasnjs. Edrd wd àjg temteake-ajonld donjnlads sonrd luoe eakedr temj laggbd-ajonld njds (Wmcbds =1 mjg39).=3 Aj ted 39=3 survdy, ted eakedst pdr`nrlajk donjnly aj soadjod wms @ajbmjg mjgted ntedr 33 donjnlads temt sonrdg mcnvd ted NDOG mvdrmkd n` 49= pnajts wdrd mbbeake ajonld.=?

Aj lmtedlmtaos, ted Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm8 ted YSO (_emjkema)8 _ajkmpnrd8 mjg EnjkHnjk, Oeajm wdrd ted tnp pdr`nrldrs.=7 Wwdjty donjnlads wate ldmj pdr`nrlmjodssakjaàomjtby mcnvd ted NDOG mvdrmkd wdrd mbb eake ajonld. Aj rdmgajk, ted YSO wmsted tnp pdr`nrldr `nbbnwdg cy ted Sdpucbao n` Hnrdm8 @ajbmjg8 mjg Enjk Hnjk, Oeajm.

Weartddj ntedr donjnlads, mbb eake ajonld, sonrdg sakjaàomjtby mcnvd ted NDOGmvdrmkd n` 71? pnajts.

=3 Mrnujg 4=9,999 =4-ydmr-nbg stugdjts `rnl 04 donjnlads pmrtaoapmtdg aj YA_M 39=3 (NDOG 39=7). Wed`nbbnwajk laggbd-ajonld onujtrads aj nur smlpbd gag jnt pmrtaoapmtd6 Cdbmrus, Bdcmjnj, _yram, Lnrnoon,_nute M`raom, Yeabappajds, Lmbmysam, Cnbavam, Onstm Saom, Gnlajaomj Sdpucbao, Db _mbvmgnr, Kumtdlmbm,mjg Ymrmkumy.

=? Mustrmbam8 Cdbkaul8 Omjmgm8 Dstnjam8 Kdrlmjy8 Enjk Hnjk, Oeajm8 Eujkmry8 Ardbmjg8 Fmpmj8 Sdpucbao

n` Hnrdm8 Badoetdjstdaj8 Lmomu, Oeajm8 Jdtedrbmjgs8 Jdw Vdmbmjg8 Ynbmjg8 ted YSO8 _ajkmpnrd8_bnvdjam8 _watzdrbmjg8 Wmapda,Oeajm8 ted Tjatdg Hajkgnl8 mjg ted Tjatdg _tmtds.

=7 @nr ted YSO, njby stugdjts aj _emjkema wdrd tdstdg.

30


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Wmcbd =16 ]umbaty n` Dguomtanj, Eake- vdrsus Laggbd-ajonld Donjnlads

Ldmj YA_M _onrds, 39=3

_oadjod Lmtedlmtaos Sdmgajk


Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 495 499 497Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 49= 71; 714

Laggbd ajonld 7=4 79? 7=;


Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99

Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99

t-tdst, p-vmbud

Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99

Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99


Jntds6 _dd Mppdjgax `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj. NDOG mvdrmkd sonrds mrd 49= `nrsoadjod, 710 ̀ nr lmtedlmtaos, mjg 71? `nr rdmgajk.

_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs cmsdg nj gmtm ̀ rnl NDOG (39=7), moodssdg =4 Fuby 39=7.

Wmcbd 396 ]umbaty n` Dguomtanj, _dbdotdg Donjnlads

Ldmj YA_M _onrds, 39=? Ydrodjtmkd n` _tugdjtscdbnw Yrnàoadjoy Bdvdbs aj

Lmtedlmtaos_oadjod Lmtedlmtaos Sdmgajk

Eake Ajonld

@ajbmjg 474 4=1 437 =3.?

Tjatdg _tmtds 71; 75= 715 34.5

Omjmgm 434 4=5 43? =?.5

Asrmdb 7;9 700 750 ??.4


Fmpmj 47; 4?0 4?5 ==.=

Hnrdm, Sdp. n` 4?5 447 4?0 1.=

Wmapda,Oeajm 43? 409 409 =3.5

Sussamj @dgdrmtanj 750 753 7;4 37.9

Laggbd Ajonld

Crmzab 794 ?1= 7=9 0;.=

Mrkdjtajm 790 ?55 ?10 00.4

Ldxaon 7=? 737 7=4 47.;

Wemabmjg 777 73; 77= 71.;

Jntds6 _dd Mppdjgax `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj. NDOG mvdrmkd sonrds mrd 49= `nrsoadjod, 710 ̀ nr lmtedlmtaos, mjg 71? `nr rdmgajk.

_nurod6 NDOG (39=7).

Wdstajk `nr ga``drdjods cdtwddj nur donjnly krnups, wd àjg onjsastdjtby bnw p-vmbudsajgaomtajk temt ted ga``drdjods cdtwddj eake- mjg laggbd-ajonld donjnlads mrdsakjaàomjt (Wmcbd =5). Wed sonrds `nr ajgavagumb donjnlads mbsn onjàrl ted bmrkdgaspmraty aj ted qumbaty n` dguomtanj cdtwddj ted twn krnups (Wmcbd =1).

7.=9 Aj`rmstruoturd

Aj`rmstruoturd, jntmcby `nr trmjspnrtmtanj mjg dbdotraomb pnwdr, `moabatmtds dxoemjkd,

ajobugajk lnvajk pdnpbd mjg knngs tn lmrhdts, mjg prnvagajk ted djdrky `nr

3;


30/41


prnguotanj. Aj`rmstruoturd as mj alpnrtmjt pucbao knng temt ujgdrbajds tedajgustrambazmtanj prnodss, cut gdvdbnpajk onujtrads tdjg tn bmoh knng aj`rmstruoturd.

Aj`rmstruoturd ems cnte qumjtaty mjg qumbaty dbdldjts mjg wd mssdss ajgaomtnrs `nr cnte.Werdd vmramcbds rdbmtd tn ted qumjtaty n` aj`rmstruoturd (rnmg gdjsaty, dbdotraoaty

onjsulptanj, mjg tdbdpenjd bajd gdjsaty) weabd `nur ntedr vmramcbds prnvagd m ldmsurdn` qumbaty, ajobugajk mj nvdrmbb sonrd. Wed rdsubts senw temt laggbd-ajonld donjnladsemvd bdss aj`rmstruoturd pdr pnpubmtanj nr kdnkrmpeaomb mrdm mjg temt ted aj`rmstruoturdas n` bnwdr qumbaty. Weas as trud `nr mbb sdvdj vmramcbds. @urtedrlnrd, ted rdsubts n` tedtwn stmtastaomb tdsts ajgaomtd temt mbb ga``drdjods mrd stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt (Wmcbd 3=).

Wmcbd 3=6 Aj`rmstruoturd, Eake- vdrsus Laggbd-ajonld Donjnlads

]umbaty n`Nvdrmbb

Aj`rmstruoturdSnmg

Gdjsaty

]umbatyn`

SnmgsYmvdgSnmgs

DbdotraoatyOnjsulptanj

]umbaty n`Dbdotraoaty

_uppbyWdbdpenjd

Bajds_ombd n` =‟; Hl n`

rnmg pdrhl3 n`mrdm

_ombd n`=‟;

Ms % n`mbb

rnmgs

h[e pdr =99pdnpbd

_ombd n`=‟;

Ydr =99pnpubmtanj

Krnup Mvdrmkd (ldmj) Eake ajonld aj/cd`nrd =104 4.5 =71 4.4 59 =9= 0.4 70Eake ajonld m`tdr =104 4.3 =3; 7.5 ;9 44 0.9 ?;Laggbd ajonld 7.9 34 ?.; 77 =1 7.7 =7

Hrushmb-[mbbas, p-vmbud Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.9= 9.99 9.99 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.9= 9.9; 9.99 9.99 9.99t-tdst, p vmbud Mbb EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99Sdodjt EA vs. LA 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.93 9.99 9.99

EA < eake-ajonld donjnlads, hl < habnldtdr, hl3 < squmrd habnldtdr, h[e < habnwmtt-enur, LA < laggbd-

ajonld donjnlads.

Jntd6 _dd Mppdjgax `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj. @nr qumbaty n` rnmgs mjg nvdrmbbaj`rmstruoturd, = < dxtrdldby ujgdrgdvdbnpdg, ; < dxtdjsavd mjg d`àoadjt cy ajtdrjmtanjmb stmjgmrgs. @nrqumbaty n` dbdotraoaty suppby, = < ajsu`àoadjt mjg su``drs ̀ rdqudjt ajtdrruptanjs, ; < su`àoadjt mjg rdbamcbd.

_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs, cmsdg nj [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), moodssdg =4 Fuby 39=7, mjg [D@ (39=7).

Snmg gdjsaty aj laggbd-ajonld donjnlads as njby mcnut m qumrtdr n` wemt at as aj eake-ajonld donjnlads. @nr dxmlpbd, aj Fmpmj, weaoe as lnujtmajnus, tedrd mrd ?=4habnldtdrs (hl) n` rnmgs `nr dvdry squmrd habnldtdr (hl3) n` bmjg (Wmcbd 33). Aj tedYeabappajds mjg Onstm Saom, weaoe mrd mbsn pmrtambby lnujtmajnus cut laggbd-ajonlddonjnlads, ted gdjsaty as `mr bnwdr, mt jdmr ;9 hl/hl3. Wedrd mrd donjnlads `nr weaoeted àkurds lmy jnt cd m rdbamcbd cmsas `nr onlpmrasnj ms tedy onjtmaj bmrkd mrdms temtmrd jnt suatdg `nr eulmj emcatmtanj nr ajgddg donjnlao motavaty msagd `rnl rdsnuroddxtrmotanj. Wedy lmy cd oursdg wate dxtrdld edmt, onbg, nr gryjdss, nr mj ntedrwasdajenspatmcbd tnpnkrmpey. Wedsd mrdms rdguod mj donjnly‑s nvdrmbb rnmg gdjsaty.

35


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Wmcbd 336 Aj`rmstruoturd, _dbdotdg Onujtrads

]umbaty n`Nvdrmbb

Aj`rmstruoturd

SnmgGdjsaty

]umbaty n`Snmgs

YmvdgSnmgs

DbdotraoatyOnjsulptanj

]umbaty n`Dbdotraoaty

_uppby

WdbdpenjdBajds

_ombd n` =‟; Hl n`

rnmg pdrhl

3 n`

mrdm

_ombd n`

=‟;

Ms % n`

mbb rnmgs

h[e pdr =99

pdnpbd

_ombd n` =‟; Ydr =99

pnpubmtanj

Eake Ajonld @rmjod 0.4 =13 0.0 =99 ;? 0.; 0?Cdbkaul 4.1 497 4.7 ;5 59 0.; 73Tjatdg _tmtds 4.; 0; 4.; .. =?3 0 70_wdgdj 0.= =31 4.; 3? =79 0.; 7;


Fmpmj 0 19 4.5 .. ;5 0.4 4=Hnrdm, Sdp. n` 4.1 =90 4.5 59 =93 0.7 09Oeabd 4.4 =9 4.; 37 ?0 4.5 =1

Eujkmry 7.5 3=0 7 ?5 ?1 4.1 31

Laggbd Ajonld

Cnbavam ?.7 ; ? =3 0 7 1Onstm Saom ?.0 5? 3.4 30 =5 4.0 33Yeabappajds ?.7 .. ?.= .. 0 ?.7 7Wemabmjg 7.; .. 4 .. 3? 4.4 =9YSO 7.3 ?5 7.7 4? 34 4.4 34

hl < habnldtdr, hl3 < squmrd habnldtdr, h[e < habnwmtt-enur.

Jntd6 _dd Mppdjgax `nr tald pdrangs mjg ted ldteng n` omboubmtanj. @nr qumbaty n` rnmgs mjg nvdrmbbaj`rmstruoturd, = < dxtrdldby ujgdrgdvdbnpdg, ; < dxtdjsavd mjg d`àoadjt cy ajtdrjmtanjmb stmjgmrgs8 `nr qumbatyn` dbdotraoaty suppby, = < ajsu`àoadjt mjg su``drs ̀ rdqudjt ajtdrruptanjs, ; < su`àoadjt mjg rdbamcbd.

_nurod6 Mutenrs‑ omboubmtanjs, cmsdg nj gmtm `rnl [nrbg Cmjh (39=7m), mjg [D@ (39=7), moodssdg =4 Fuby

39=7.

Wed prnpnrtanj n` mj donjnly‑s rnmgs temt mrd pmvdg lmy prnvagd m cdttdr sdjsd nàj`rmstruoturd gdvdbnpldjt ms at as m qumbaty ldmsurd. Mkmaj, wd àjg sakjaàomjtga``drdjods, wate ted prnpnrtanj n` pmvdg rnmgs aj eake-ajonld donjnlads jdmrbygnucbd temt aj laggbd-ajonld onujtrads (77% onlpmrdg tn ;9%‟59%). Wed qumbaty n`rnmgs as mbsn bnwdr, wate m ldmj sonrd n` ?.; nut n` ;.9 `nr laggbd-ajonld donjnlads,onlpmrdg tn 7.5 nr mcnvd `nr eake-ajonld donjnlads.

M rdbamcbd suppby `nr dbdotraomb pnwdr as mbsn mj alpnrtmjt ajput `nr mj ajgustrambazdgdonjnly. Onjsulptanj pdr pdrsnj as `nur talds eakedr aj trmgatanjmb eake-ajonlddonjnlads, mjg twaod ms eake aj rdodjt eake-ajonld donjnlads, ms at as laggbd-ajonldnjds. Wed ga``drdjods mrd stmtastaombby sakjaàomjt (Wmcbd 3=). Wed qumbaty n` dbdotraomb

pnwdr, aj tdrls n` prnvagajk m su`àoadjt mjg rdbamcbd suppby, as mbsn sakjaàomjtby bnwdr ajlaggbd-ajonld donjnlads. Cusajdssds àjg at ga`àoubt tn npdrmtd onjtajunus prnguotanjbajds mjg lmy ajguod tedl tn tmhd ted onstby stdp n` prnvagajk tedar nwj kdjdrmtanj.

Wdbdpenjd gdjsaty as mbsn sakjaàomjtby eakedr aj lnrd gdvdbnpdg donjnlads. Weas asajtdrdstajk kavdj temt ted onlpmrasnj as lmgd cdtwddj eake-ajonld donjnlads ajprdvanus gdomgds (=109s mjg =1;9s) wate laggbd-ajonld donjnlads tngmy. Enwdvdr,ted gmtm as cmsdg nj bmjgbajds mjg gnds jnt moonujt `nr lncabd penjds, weaoe emvdcdonld lnrd pnpubmr wnrbgwagd nvdr ted pmst 3 gdomgds.

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4. NPDSMBB YAOWTSD

Wed prdodgajk mjmbysas ems onlpmrdg ted laggbd-ajonld mjg eake-ajonld donjnladsmornss m rmjkd n` vmramcbds. [d emvd gasoussdg ted alpnrtmjod n` dmoe vmramcbd tn ted

krnwte prnodss mjg ats pnssacbd aj`budjod nj onjtracutajk tn ted laggbd-ajonld trmp.[d emvd jnt mttdlptdg tn rmjh ted `motnrs temt mrd lnst orataomb tn nvdronlajk tedlaggbd-ajonld trmp. Wemt wnubg rdquard lnrd raknrnus stmtastaomb lmjapubmtanj, cutonubg cuabg nj ted ourrdjt rdsubts. At lmy mbsn cd trud temt snld n` ted vmramcbds temtwdrd tdstdg laket cd sddj lnrd ms sylptnls temj omusds.

[emt wd omj prnvagd, enwdvdr, mrd twn mpprnmoeds tn sdd lnrd obdmrby ted ga``drdjodscdtwddj ted donjnly krnups. Wed rdsubts n` ted `arst mpprnmoe mrd prdsdjtdg aj @akurd=. [d omboubmtdg ted ldgamj vmbud `nr dmoe vmramcbd mornss mbb donjnlads. Wedj wdomboubmtdg ted ldgamj vmbud `nr mbb ted vmbuds temt bad cdtwddj ted ldgamj mjg tedbnwdst vmbud. [d ombb teas ted ‒ldgamj n` ted ldgamj.“ @rnl teas wd wdrd mcbd tnobmssa`y dmoe donjnly‑s rdsubt `nr dmoe vmramcbd ms datedr6 a) mcnvd ted ldgamj8 aa)

cdbnw ted ldgamj cut mcnvd ted ldgamj n` ted ldgamj8 nr, aaa) cdbnw

Documents

The Middle-Income Transition around the Globe: Characteristics of Graduation and Slowdown