The Master Trader Counter-Trend Trade Set-Ups · (if not already) a successful and consistently profitable trader… I mean that’s what the ultimate goal is, right? So, if you’re

© Trading Concepts, Inc.

The Master Trader

Counter-Trend Trade Set-Ups

© Trading Concepts, Inc. 2

The Master Trader Counter-Trend Trade Set-Ups

By Todd Mitchell

© Copyright 2014 by Trading Concepts, Inc.

All Rights Reserved

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Table of Contents

Counter-Trend Trade Strategies................................................................. 4

Retest & Failures .................................................................................... 5

NYSE Tick ............................................................................................. 8

Key Times of Day.................................................................................. 10

Floor Trader Pivots ............................................................................... 12

Powerful Price Patterns ......................................................................... 14

Counter-Trend (CT) Trade Set-Ups ........................................................... 16

RETEST of a HIGH in an UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend SELL (Entry & Trade Management) ....................................... 17

RETEST of a LOW in a DOWNTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend BUY (Entry & Trade Management) ........................................ 21

TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot in an UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range

Counter-Trend SELL (Entry & Trade Management) ....................................... 25

TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot in a DOWNTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range

Counter-Trend BUY (Entry & Trade Management) ........................................ 29


Counter-Trend Trade Strategies

Let me first start out by CONGRATULATING you by making it this far in the E-Mini

Success Formula Mentoring Program! You are definitely on your way, and you’re

now at a point where you should be able to consistently make money (day) trading

the markets. I think you’ll agree that everything you’ve studied up to this point is extremely powerful and, alone, is enough for you to go off and trade successfully.

You are now definitely armed with an advantage and ‘edge’ over other traders

that will help maximize your trading results.

What I would like to do in this training module is to help further layer your knowledge

of trading the markets by giving you more powerful trading insights that will help your

‘edge’ in taking money from other traders. As you already know, most of what you’ve already learned in Trading Success Principles and Income Generating

Strategies are trading strategies that mostly talk about trading with the trend, right?

Well, now I would like to teach you a few powerful Counter-Trend (CT) strategies using five trading principles that you’ve already learned, they are:

(1) Retest & Failures inside the Market Flow Analysis Method module (2) NYSE Tick

(3) Key Times of Day

(4) Floor Trader Pivots

(5) Powerful Price Patterns

As you know counter-trend means the opposite of trading with the trend. Counter-

Trend (CT) essentially means trying to pick a top or bottom, whether it’s a double or triple top or bottom. So, as you can already guess, this training module is geared

more towards the advanced trader (and that will come naturally with time) who is

real quick and nimble and has experience in the markets already. And my hope and sincere intent is for all of you studying the E-Mini-Success Formula to soon become

(if not already) a successful and consistently profitable trader… I mean that’s what

the ultimate goal is, right? So, if you’re not quite there yet, don’t worry, you soon

will be when you put your heart and soul into this mentoring program. And you know that I’m ALWAYS here for you!

Alright, let’s get right into the Counter-Trend (CT) strategies that I want to show you, but first understand that a majority of your trades will be trading with the trend,

just like everything you’ve already learned prior to getting to this module. Even if

you decide these counter-trend trade set-ups are not for you, that’s perfectly alright,

but please be aware of what I’m about to teach you because this will not only help keep you out of potential losing trend trades (by knowing where these trade set-ups

occur), but will also help you truly understand the ebb and flow of the markets much

better.


Alright, once again here are the Five Trading Principles that you’ve already learned

that will also be used for our Counter-Trend Strategies:

(1) Retest & Failures inside the Market Flow Analysis Method module (2) NYSE Tick


(4) Floor Trader Pivots

(5) Powerful Price Patterns

Retest & Failures (inside Market Flow Analysis Method module):

I want you to understand these simple market phenomena because this is what’s

happening all the time in the markets, and it will help you understand the natural ebb

and flow of the markets. A RETEST simply means when the market is coming back to test either a high or low that has already been established. A FAILURE is simply when

a market cannot penetrate through the high or low once a retest occurs. Think of a

double top and double bottom when visualizing the concept of retest and failures.

Therefore, when the market retests a high or low we will be looking for a potential

Counter-Trend trade to develop (a more conservative entry). And there will be those times where we will be looking for a Counter-Trend trade when the market

isn’t anywhere near testing a high or low (a more aggressive entry). Look at the

illustrations below:


If there is NO apparent RETEST of a High or Low, there may still be a Counter-

Trend set-up using the following Four Trading Principles:

(1) NYSE Tick


(3) Floor Trader Pivots (4) Powerful Price Patterns

Even though the market may look like it’s moving straight up or down on an intra-day chart, the market may be approaching a high or low on a larger time frame, so always

be on the lookout for that. Besides always watching for retests and potential

failures, we will be using the four trading principles listed above for our actual market entries.

AGGRESSIVE Counter-Trend SHORT Entry


AGGRESSIVE Counter-Trend LONG Entry

Alright, let’s now take a look at the remaining four key trading principles that will

form the basis of our Counter-Trend trading strategies since you now fully understand the concept of retest and failures.


NYSE Tick

As you recall the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) puts out an indicator called the TICK, the symbol is: $TICK. The NYSE Tick calculates the difference between the

number of stocks on the NYSE that are increasing in price and those that are

decreasing in price from the previous price quote. The NYSE Tick will help give us an

excellent leading indication of potential market direction. The NYSE Ticks are a real good way to see what’s going on “underneath the hood,” so to speak, of price action.

So let’s show how we’re going to use it here.

RULE: If the NYSE Tick hits +975/1000 (and above) or -975/1000 (and below) then

we will be looking to potentially set up a Counter-Trend trade. These are extreme

readings and typically represent the maximum amount of sustained buying or selling pressure the market can generally handle, thus representing good potential Counter-

Trend trading opportunities. At these extreme readings we also look for bearish

divergence (i.e. +975 reading with higher highs in price & lower Tick readings) and

bullish divergence (i.e. -975 reading with lower lows in price & higher Tick readings). See the examples below.

There are those rare trading days where the markets trend strongly all day. On a strong UPTRENDING day the TICK generally trades above the zero line in the

neighborhood of between -400 and 1,000+. On a strong DOWNTRENDING day the

TICK generally trades below the zero line in the neighborhood of between +400

and 1,000-.

If the TICK is mostly trading ABOVE the zero line with consistent extreme high tick readings, then absolutely no Counter-Trend trades. Do not SELL

the market.

If the TICK is mostly trading BELOW the zero line with consistent extreme

low tick readings, then absolutely no Counter-Trend trades. Do not BUY the

market.

And like I said before, these strong trending days are very rare, but when they

happen, I don’t suggest fighting them. I suggest trading in the direction of the

trend.


NYSE Tick


Key Times of Day

As you already know from studying the Key Times of Day module, there are certain times during the trading day where the market becomes very predictable. At these

times, the market will do either one of two things: 1) resume or continue in the

direction of the day’s trend and/or 2) set up some type of COUNTER-TREND move (it

may be a deeper pullback into a logical level of SUPPORT or RESISTANCE or it may be a complete reversal of the day’s trend).

Below, I have broken down these Key Times of Day when the market will most likely set up a Counter-Trend move.

(1) MORNING Price Action: 10:15am ET to 10:45am ET - expect a COUNTER-TREND move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend

or bias, if there is one.

(2) AFTERNOON Move: 2:00pm ET (give or take 15 minutes) - expect either:

a. A resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm, or

b. A COUNTER-TREND move of the day’s trend if the market is testing

the HIGH or LOW of the day.

(3) DELAYED AFTERNOON Move: 3:00pm ET (give or take 15 minutes) - the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm. Expect either:

a. A COUNTER-TREND move of the day’s trend if the market is testing

the HIGH or LOW of the day, or

b. A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around

2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day in an uptrend or up off the low of the day in a downtrend.


Key Times of Day


Floor Trader Pivots

The Floor Trader Pivots are support and resistance levels calculated by floor traders using a mathematical formula… you can refer back to the training module for the

exact calculations and for more specifics. Using these pivots in our overall trading

plan will automatically help us in our discipline (which we all need, right?), because

potential entries (and exits) are determined before the trading day even begins! They can also be used to help determine what type of trading day it’s going to be by

looking at how the market reacts at the pivot levels once the market reaches them.

We will be using the Floor Trader Pivots as one of the tools in our decision making process for the Counter-Trend trade Set-Ups.

The market will usually move up to a pivot level and either move back down off that level immediately, or just consolidate near that level before drifting back in the

direction from where the market originally came from. The pivots can be set up to be

faded as long as you understand the context of the market on that day, along with

using the other trading principles that I’m talking about here. Of course there are those times where the market blows right through these pivot levels, but that’s why

we also use the other principles when making these Counter-Trend trading decisions.

(R stands for RESISTANCE, and S stands for SUPPORT)

The PIVOT Calculations and How They Look on a Chart:

R3: R1 + (High – Low)

R2: Pivot + (High – Low)

R1: 2 X Pivot – Low

PIVOT: (High + Low + Close)/3

S1: 2 X Pivot – High

S2: Pivot – (High-Low)

S3: S1 – (High – Low)


Floor Trader Pivots


Powerful Price Patterns

As you recall there are three Powerful Price Patterns that we generally use at

support levels to buy in an established uptrend, and three Powerful Price Patterns that we use at resistance levels to sell in an established downtrend. What we’re

going to do here is use those same three price patterns for our Counter-Trend

strategies by looking for them either when the market retests a high or low, or when

the market looks like it may be reversing direction. Let’s quickly review what those three Powerful Price Patterns are from the illustrations below:

Three BULLISH Powerful Price Patterns:

For a Counter-Trend BUY Entry, you will be looking for any one of these three BULLISH Powerful Price Patterns when the market:

is in a downtrend and retests a LOW, or

Is in a downtrend and looks like it may be reversing to the UPSIDE (i.e.

extreme NYSE Tick reading, Time of Day, or testing a Floor Trader Pivot).

Three BEARISH Powerful Price Patterns:

For a Counter-Trend SELL Entry, you will be looking for any one of these three BEARISH Powerful Price Patterns when the market:

is in an uptrend and retests a HIGH, or

Is in an uptrend and looks like it may be reversing to the DOWNSIDE (i.e.

extreme NYSE Tick reading, Time of Day, or testing a Floor Trader Pivot).


Powerful Price Patterns


Counter-Trend (CT) Trade Set-Ups

Alright, now that we’ve talked about the five key principles that we’re going to be

using for our Counter-Trend strategies, and we’ve looked at a bunch of illustrations

and charts for each, let’s now put it all together.

Price Action itself will truly enable you to understand the market and is more

important than any technical indicator you could ever use. Remember, the market is

always right, traders are wrong. Therefore, traders must pay close attention to price action, and watch very closely to see what the market is trying to tell you.

Like I mentioned earlier, the criteria for a Counter-Trend trade is:

1) when the market retests a major HIGH in an UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading

Range AND a BEARISH Powerful Price Pattern develops, or when the market

retests a major LOW in a DOWNTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range AND a BULLISH Powerful Price Pattern develops, or

2) when the market is testing a Floor Trader Pivot level in an established TREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range, you need 2 of the following 3 criteria to

initiate a Counter-Trend trade:

An extreme NYSE Tick reading, or

It is the Time of Day when you would expect a potential Counter-

Trend move, and/or

The market forms any one of the Powerful Price Patterns at or near

the Floor Trader Pivot level.

Typically, when the market is moving lower (in a downtrend), the market generally drops three times quicker than it rises (making it more volatile) and bottoms are

typically put in place quicker. This is evident in any chart you look at. On the other

side of the spectrum, when the market is moving higher (in an uptrend), the market

generally moves slower and more gradual, and tops take longer to form. So, by knowing this information we need to be cognizant of this market insight when we put

on Counter-Trend trades.


RETEST of a HIGH in an UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend SELL (Entry & Trade Management)

Once an UPTREND is established or if the market is trading in a SIDEWAYS Trading Range and the market is retesting a major HIGH and any one of the three BEARISH

Powerful Price Patterns develop, a Counter-Trend Trade Strategy has set up.

SELL (SHORT) Entries:

If a BEARISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing Pattern forms, you will look to SELL the

market at or near the CLOSE of the BEARISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing Pattern.

If an IVB / “Neutral” Harami forms, you will look to SELL the market slightly

BELOW the LOW of the IVB / “Neutral” Harami.

If a Double Bar/Candlestick HIGH w/ Lower LOW and Lower CLOSE forms, you

will look to SELL the market at or near the CLOSE of a Double Bar/Candlestick HIGH w/ Lower LOW and Lower CLOSE.

Initial Stop Loss (ISL):

BEARISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing Pattern: place ISL slightly ABOVE the HIGH of the BEARISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing Pattern.

IVB / “Neutral” Harami: place ISL slightly ABOVE the HIGH of the Price Bar / Candlestick PRIOR TO the IVB / “Neutral” Harami.

Double Bar / Candlestick HIGH w/ Lower LOW and Lower CLOSE: place ISL

slightly ABOVE the equal HIGHs of the Double Bar / Candlestick HIGH w/ Lower LOW and Lower CLOSE.

If a Powerful Price Pattern develops while you are in a trade, IMMEDIATELY bring your STOP DOWN to slightly ABOVE the HIGH of the Powerful Price Pattern. This

remains true the whole time that you are in a trade.


RETEST of a HIGH Counter-Trend SELL (Entry & ISL)


Profit Objectives (POs):

These are the BEST and most RELIABLE Profit Objectives (in my opinion) when

entering SHORT a Counter-Trend trade in an established UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range.

Profit Objective #1 (P.O.#1) is Mid to Lower Keltner Channel Bands.

Profit Objective #2 (P.O.#2) is the 38%, 50%, or 62% Fibonacci Retracement level, whichever is just below the Lower Keltner Channel Band.

Profit Objective #3 (P.O. #3) is the 79/89 Moving Averages, or the very next

lower Fibonacci Retracement level (50% or 62%) below the Lower Keltner

Channel Band.

Utilizing Floor Trader Pivots in conjunction with Mid to Lower Keltner Channel

Bands, Fibonacci Retracement levels, and/or the Key Moving Averages where you

would look to take profits in a SHORT Counter-Trend trade offers an additional “weight of evidence” to confirm scaling out of your SHORT position. When you see

a Floor Trader Pivot level and a Fibonacci level in “confluence” with these logical

levels of SUPPORT where you would look to take profits, these SUPPORT levels are

very powerful BUY areas in which the market may reverse to the UPSIDE and resume in the direction of the trend.

Logical Trailing Stop (TS)

Continue to move a TRAILING STOP DOWN slightly ABOVE the Upper Keltner

Channel Band as the market moves lower in your favor.


RETEST of a HIGH Counter-Trend SELL (Profit Objectives)


RETEST of a LOW in a DOWNTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend BUY (Entry & Trade Management)

Once a DOWNTREND is established or if the market is trading in a SIDEWAYS Trading Range and the market is retesting a major LOW and any one of the three

BULLISH Powerful Price Patterns develop, a Counter-Trend Trade Strategy has set

up.

BUY (LONG) Entries:

If a BULLISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing Pattern forms, you will look to BUY the market at or near the CLOSE of the BULLISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing

Pattern.

If an IVB / “Neutral” Harami forms, you will look to BUY the market slightly ABOVE the HIGH of the IVB / “Neutral” Harami.

If a Double Bar/Candlestick LOW w/ Higher HIGH and Higher CLOSE forms, you will look to BUY the market at or near the CLOSE of a Double

Bar/Candlestick LOW w/ Higher HIGH and Higher CLOSE.


BULLISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing Pattern: place ISL slightly BELOW the LOW

of the BULLISH OVB / “Quasi” Engulfing Pattern.

IVB / “Neutral” Harami: place ISL slightly BELOW the LOW of the Price Bar /

Candlestick PRIOR TO the IVB / “Neutral” Harami.

Double Bar / Candlestick LOW w/ Higher HIGH and Higher CLOSE: place ISL slightly BELOW the equal LOWs of the Double Bar / Candlestick LOW w/

Higher HIGH and Higher CLOSE.

If a Powerful Price Pattern develops while you are in a trade, IMMEDIATELY bring

your STOP UP to slightly BELOW the LOW of the Powerful Price Pattern. This



RETEST of a LOW Counter-Trend BUY (Entry & ISL)




entering LONG a Counter-Trend trade in an established DOWNTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range.

Profit Objective #1 (P.O.#1) is Mid to Upper Keltner Channel Bands.

Profit Objective #2 (P.O.#2) is the 38%, 50%, or 62% Fibonacci Retracement level, whichever is just above the Upper Keltner Channel Band.


higher Fibonacci Retracement level (50% or 62%) above the Upper Keltner

Channel Band.

Utilizing Floor Trader Pivots in conjunction with Mid to Upper Keltner Channel


would look to take profits in a LONG Counter-Trend trade offers an additional “weight of evidence” to confirm scaling out of your LONG position. When you see a

Floor Trader Pivot level and a Fibonacci level in “confluence” with these logical

levels of RESISTANCE where you would look to take profits, these RESISTANCE levels

are very powerful SELL areas in which the market may reverse to the DOWNSIDE and resume in the direction of the trend.


Continue to move a TRAILING STOP UP slightly BELOW the Lower Keltner

Channel Band as the market moves higher in your favor.


RETEST of a LOW Counter-Trend BUY (Profit Objectives)


TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot Level in an UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend SELL (Entry & Trade Management)

Once an UPTREND is established or if the market is trading in a SIDEWAYS Trading Range and the market is testing a Floor Trader Pivot level AND 2 of the following 3

criteria are also met:


It is the Time of Day when you would expect a potential Counter-Trend

move, and/or

The market forms any one of the three BEARISH Powerful Price Patterns at

or near the Floor Trader Pivot level,

A Counter-Trend Trade Strategy has set up.

SELL (SHORT) Entries:

You will look to SELL the market slightly BELOW the Floor Trader Pivot level,

If one of the three BEARISH Powerful Price Patterns form, you will look to SELL the market per the Powerful Price Pattern Entries as defined above in

the SELL (SHORT) Entries section of the RETEST of a HIGH in an UPTREND or

SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend SELL (also defined in the Powerful

Price Pattern Trades module).


Place the ISL slightly ABOVE the Floor Trader Pivot level (or slightly ABOVE

any other significant RESISTANCE level just above the Floor Trader Pivot level),

If one of the three BEARISH Powerful Price Patterns formed, place the ISL

slightly ABOVE the Powerful Price Pattern as defined above in the Initial Stop

Loss (ISL) section of the RETEST of a HIGH in an UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend SELL (also as defined in the Powerful Price

Pattern Trades module).

If a Powerful Price Pattern develops while you are in a trade, IMMEDIATELY bring your STOP DOWN to slightly ABOVE the HIGH of the Powerful Price Pattern. This



TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot Level Counter-Trend SELL (Entry & ISL)




entering SHORT a Counter-Trend trade in an established UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range.

Profit Objective #1 (P.O.#1) is Mid to Lower Keltner Channel Bands.

Profit Objective #2 (P.O.#2) is the 38%, 50%, or 62% Fibonacci Retracement level, whichever is just below the Lower Keltner Channel Band.


lower Fibonacci Retracement level (50% or 62%) below the Lower Keltner

Channel Band.

Utilizing Floor Trader Pivots in conjunction with Mid to Lower Keltner Channel


would look to take profits in a SHORT Counter-Trend trade offers an additional “weight of evidence” to confirm scaling out of your SHORT position. When you see

a Floor Trader Pivot level and a Fibonacci level in “confluence” with these logical

levels of SUPPORT where you would look to take profits, these SUPPORT levels are

very powerful BUY areas in which the market may reverse to the UPSIDE and resume in the direction of the trend.


Continue to move a TRAILING STOP DOWN slightly ABOVE the Upper Keltner

Channel Band as the market moves lower in your favor.


TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot Level Counter-Trend SELL (Profit Objectives)


TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot Level in a DOWNTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend BUY (Entry & Trade Management)

Once a DOWNTREND is established or if the market is trading in a SIDEWAYS Trading Range and the market is testing a Floor Trader Pivot level AND 2 of the

following 3 criteria are also met:


It is the Time of Day when you would expect a potential Counter-Trend

move, and/or

The market forms any one of the three BULLISH Powerful Price Patterns at

or near the Floor Trader Pivot level,

A Counter-Trend Trade Strategy has set up.

BUY (LONG) Entries:

You will look to BUY the market slightly ABOVE the Floor Trader Pivot level,

If one of the three BULLISH Powerful Price Patterns form, you will look to BUY the market per the Powerful Price Pattern Entries as defined above in

the BUY (LONG) Entries section of the RETEST of a LOW in a DOWNTREND or

SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend BUY (also defined in the Powerful

Price Pattern Trades module).


Place the ISL slightly BELOW the Floor Trader Pivot level (or slightly BELOW

any other significant SUPPORT level just below the Floor Trader Pivot level),

If one of the three BULLISH Powerful Price Patterns formed, place the ISL

slightly BELOW the Powerful Price Pattern as defined above in the Initial Stop

Loss (ISL) section of the RETEST of a LOW in an UPTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range Counter-Trend BUY (also as defined in the Powerful Price

Pattern Trades module).

If a Powerful Price Pattern develops while you are in a trade, IMMEDIATELY bring your STOP UP to slightly BELOW the LOW of the Powerful Price Pattern. This



TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot Level Counter-Trend BUY (Entry & ISL)




entering LONG a Counter-Trend trade in an established DOWNTREND or SIDEWAYS Trading Range.

Profit Objective #1 (P.O.#1) is Mid to Upper Keltner Channel Bands.

Profit Objective #2 (P.O.#2) is the 38%, 50%, or 62% Fibonacci Retracement level, whichever is just above the Upper Keltner Channel Band.


higher Fibonacci Retracement level (50% or 62%) above the Upper Keltner

Channel Band.

Utilizing Floor Trader Pivots in conjunction with Mid to Upper Keltner Channel


would look to take profits in a LONG Counter-Trend trade offers an additional “weight of evidence” to confirm scaling out of your LONG position. When you see a

Floor Trader Pivot level and a Fibonacci level in “confluence” with these logical

levels of RESISTANCE where you would look to take profits, these RESISTANCE levels

are very powerful SELL areas in which the market may reverse to the DOWNSIDE and resume in the direction of the trend.


Continue to move a TRAILING STOP UP slightly BELOW the Lower Keltner

Channel Band as the market moves higher in your favor.


TEST of a Floor Trader Pivot Level Counter-Trend BUY (Profit Objectives)

Documents

The Master Trader Counter-Trend Trade Set-Ups · (if not already) a successful and consistently profitable trader… I mean that’s what the ultimate goal is, right? So, if you’re