18 October 2019

Nico HawkinsGeneral Manager

The Maize Forum

White Maize

White Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

WHITE MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIESCEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)

S&DEC

Ton Yield

Progr.May-4 Oct

White Maize: Raw material: Imports & Exports

0

150 000

300 000

450 000

600 000

750 000

900 000

1 050 000

1 200 000

1 350 000

1 500 000

1 650 000

1 800 000

1 950 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

WHITE MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS

Imports Exports S&DEC

Ton

Progr.May-4 Oct

(2019/20 Progr. 1 May – 4 Oct ‘19)

White Maize: Exports Raw materialMajor Destinations(2019/20 Progr. 1 May – 4 Oct ‘19)

Ethiopia21.7%

Botswana23.8%

Tanzania6.8%

Somalia6.7%

Mozambique9.8%

Nambia16.9%

Lesotho5.9%

Other8.4%

White Maize Exports1 May '19 - 4 Oct '19

Progr. Total: ton340 596

White Maize: Consumption

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

5 000 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

WHITE MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC

Ton

Yellow Maize

Yellow Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

YELLOW MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES

CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC

Ton Yield

Progr.May-4 Oct

Yellow Maize: Raw Material: Imports & Exports(2019/20 Progr. 1 May – 4 Oct ‘19)

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

YELLOW MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS

Imports Exports S&DEC

Ton

Progr.May-4 Oct

Yellow Maize: Exports Raw material Major destinations(2019/20 Progr. 1 May – 4 Oct ‘19)

Botswana26.0%

Korea, Dem2.7%

Mozambique11.2%

Namibia19.6%

Zimbabwe7.0%

Eswatini29.2%

Other3.3%

Yellow Maize Exports1 May '19 - 4 Oct '19

Progr. Total: ton155 049

Yellow Maize: Consumption

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

YELLOW MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION

Human Animal/industrial S&DEC

Ton

Total Maize

Total Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

16 000 000

18 000 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

TOTAL MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATES, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIESCEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)

S&DEC

Ton Yield

Progr.May-4 Oct

Total Maize: Imports & Exports: Raw material

0150 000300 000450 000600 000750 000900 000

1 050 0001 200 0001 350 0001 500 0001 650 0001 800 0001 950 0002 100 0002 250 0002 400 0002 550 0002 700 0002 850 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

TOTAL MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS

Total Imports Exports S&DEC

Ton

(2019/20 Progr. 1 May – 4 Oct ‘19)

Progr.May-4 Oct

Total Maize: Consumption

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20Progr.

May-Aug

19/20Proj.

TOTAL MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC

Ton

Price Movements

Price Movements: Comparison JSE Commodities

2019/10/08 2019/09/09 2018/10/08Price % Month Price % Year PriceR/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton

Future prices for Dec 2019Yellow Maize 2848.00 9.75 2595.00 12.97 2521.00White Maize 2930.00 7.96 2714.00 18.38 2475.00Future prices for Mar 2020Yellow Maize 2813.00 8.28 2598.00 9.24 2575.00White Maize 2924.00 6.72 2740.00 15.57 2530.00Source: SAFEX

Price Movements: Comparison CBOT

2019/10/08 2019/09/09 2018/10/08Price % Month Price % Year Price$/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton

US NO 3 Yellow MaizeDecember '19 155.74 11.69 139.44 7.97 144.25March '20 159.99 10.68 144.56 7.40 148.97Source: CBOT

SARS FOB Prices: ImportsPrevious years: May – April2019/20: Progr. May – Aug ‘19

Progr.2019/20

May - Aug '19

2018/19(May - Apr)

2017/18(May - Apr)

Imports Quantity(Ton)

230 545 174 877 2 161

Total value of imports

FOB value(R'000)

615 211 437 350 9 970

Value per ton R/Ton 2 669 2 501 4 615

Source: SARS

1005.90.90 Maize Other1005.90.10 Maize Kernels

SARS FOB Prices: ExportsPrevious years: May – April2019/20: Progr. May – Aug ‘19

Progr.2019/20

May - Aug '19

2018/19(May - Apr)

2017/18(May - Apr)

Exports Quantity(Ton)

389 455 2 017 278 2 276 787

Total value of imports

FOB value(R'000)

1 300 422 5 407 024 5 443 620

Value per ton R/Ton 3 339 2 680 2 391

Source: SARS

1005.90.90 Maize Other1005.90.10 Maize Kernels

Transport Component

Transport componentMaize

Transport componentMaize and Wheat

MaizeProducts

Maize Products Manufactured

White maize

Yellow maize

Total Maize

White maize

Yellow maize

Total Maize

White maize

Yellow maize

Total Maize

Maize Chop 131 091 17 179 148 270 1 509 815 186 422 1 696 237 31.8 30.8 31.7Maize Rice 585 * 585 8 266 8 266 0.2 * 0.2Maize Grits 5 248 * 5 248 59 924 59 924 1.3 * 1.1Samp 9 622 * 9 622 117 055 117 055 2.5 * 2.2* Total Yellow Maize Rice / Maize Grits / Samp 26 731 26 731 0 278 347 278 347 0.0 45.9 5.2

Sifted Maize Meal 2 254 1 551 3 805 27 871 22 667 50 538 0.6 3.7 0.9Special Maize Meal 27 676 424 28 100 357 091 9 675 366 766 7.5 1.6 6.9Super Maize Meal 220 972 2 941 223 913 2 538 595 28 874 2 567 469 53.5 4.8 48.0Unsifted Maize Meal 585 0 585 8 079 8 8 087 0.2 0.0 0.2Other maize products intended for Human consumption 11 634 6 096 17 730 120 887 80 118 201 005 2.5 13.2 3.8Total 409 667 54 922 464 589 4 747 583 606 111 5 353 694 100 100 100

Whole maize milled 402 659 60 199 462 858 4 715 393 714 127 5 429 520

Diff milled and products -7 008 5 277 -1 731 -32 190 108 016 75 826

% Chop 32 31 32 32 31 32Note: The product figures do not include industrial products

% of TotalMaize Products

Manufactured

Progr. Sep '18 - Aug '19(12 months) (12 months)

Ton

Aug '19

White Maize Products

Progr. May – Aug ‘19 (4 months)

Sep ‘18 – Aug ‘19 (12 months) Super2 538 595

78.4%

Special357 09111.0% Sifted

27 8710.9%

Unsifted8 0790.2%

Other306 132

9.5%

White Maize Meal Products

Total Human Consumption (Ton): 3 237 768

Progr: 12 months

(Sep '18 - Aug '19)

Super904 39979.4%

Special113 51410.0% Sifted

10 1040.9%

Unsifted2 2000.2%

Other108 933

9.6%

White Maize Meal Products

Total Human Consumption: 1 139 150

(May - Aug '18)4 Months

Yellow Maize Products

Progr. May – Aug ‘19 (4 months)

Sep ‘18 – Aug ‘19 (12 months)

Special9 6752.3%

Super28 8746.9%

Rice/Grits/Samp

278 34766.3%

Sifted22 6675.4%

Other80 12619.1%

Yellow Maize Meal Products

Total Human Consumption (Ton): 419 689

Progr: 12 months(Sep '18 - Aug '19)

Special1 6201.1%

Super9 8306.7%

Rice/Grits/Samp101 77768.9%

Sifted8 5385.8%

Other25 93717.6%

Yellow Maize Meal Products

Total Human Consumption: 147 702

(May - Aug '18)4 Months

Maize Products: ConsumptionProgr. Sep ‘18 – Aug ‘19 (12 months)

Per capita consumption Total Maizeproducts

Total Wheatproducts

Total Oilseedsproducts

Manufactured 3 657 457 3 294 251 2 086 605+ Imports 4 750 30 781 1 434 427- Exports -77 958 -13 092 -66 442Total "consumed" 3 584 249 3 311 940 3 454 590Total population 58 780 000 58 780 000 58 780 000Per capita consumption (Kg) 60.98 56.34 58.77Note: Maize = Total less chop

12 months (1 Sep '18 - 31 Aug '19)

White Maize Products: Historic Info1949/50 – 2018/19

915 000

28 439

617 000

900 000 968 000

357 886371 301

131 000

293 000

2 388 000

2 495 637

266 000

227 00077 000 10 376

8 568

2 125 000 2 181 000 2 149 000

2 869 565

2 903 945

0

500  000

1  000  000

1  500  000

2  000  000

2  500  000

3  000  000

1975

/7619

76/77

1977

/7819

78/79

1979

/8019

80/81

1981

/8219

82/83

1983

/8419

84/85

1985

/8619

86/87

1987

/8819

88/89

1989

/9019

90/91

1991

/9219

92/93

1993

/9419

94/95

1995

/9619

96/97

1997

/9819

98/99

1999

/0020

00/01

2001

/0220

02/03

2003

/0420

04/05

2005

/0620

06/07

2007

/0820

08/09

2009

/1020

10/11

2011

/1220

12/13

2013

/1420

14/15

2015

/1620

16/17

2017

/1820

18/19

Maize products Historic InformationSifted WM Meal Special WM Meal Super WM Meal Unsifted WM Meal Total WM MealTon

Maize vs Wheat whole grain per capita: Historic Info1970/71 – 2018/19

135131

8088

59

77

89

5256

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1970

/71

1972

/73

1974

/75

1976

/77

1978

/79

1980

/81

1982

/83

1984

/85

1986

/87

1988

/89

1990

/91

1992

/93

1994

/95

1996

/97

1998

/99

2000

/01

2002

/03

2004

/05

2006

/07

2008

/09

2010

/11

2012

/13

2014

/15

2016

/17

2018

/19

Maize Whole Grain Wheat Whole Grain

kg/head

Per Capita Consumption

Maize products: Year on year price changes

2019 2018 2017Price Price Price

R R RSuper Maize 5kg 41.57 20.04 34.63 -21.86 44.32Special Maize 2.5kg 21.21 20.65 17.58 -14.24 20.50*White Maize Safex 2 865.00 26.80 2 259.47 23.79 1 825.24* Average spot priceSource: SA Statistics & JSE Safex

August

% Yearon

Year

% Yearon

Year

Maize Products: Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep-

13N

ov-1

3Ja

n-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4Se

p-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep-

15N

ov-1

5Ja

n-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6Se

p-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17M

ar-1

7M

ay-1

7Ju

l-17

Sep-

17N

ov-1

7Ja

n-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8Se

p-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19M

ar-1

9M

ay-1

9Ju

l-19

MAIZE PRODUCTS INDEX

(Special Maize) Mealie meal/Maize flour 1 Kg(Special Maize) Mealie meal/Maize flour 2.5 KgSuper Maize 1 KgSuper Maize 5 KgSAFEX Spot price White Maize

%% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %%%%%

130.31

127.85

107.96133.79

132.97

Index:

MaizeGeneral

Co-workers : Whole Grain

Processors34471%

Harbour silo owners

163%

Traders63

13%

End consumers327%

Storers316%

Maize Whole grain firms registered

486Total firms:

Co-workers : Products

Milling Industry17198%

Products: Import / Export

42%

Maize Products firms registered

Total firms: 175

Board of Directors

ChairpersonDr JL Purchase

DirectorMr Z Ngejane

Alternate DirectorMr BC Schoonwinkel

As from 18 July 2019 The Maize Industry is represented by:

Vice-ChairpersonMs M Purnell

Winter Cereal Trust

The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil our commitments:

The Maize Trust The Maize Forum Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff

Gratitude

Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS’ website under Presentations