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The main moisture flux sources in SAMS and evolution of the system. Iracema F.A.Cavalcanti Daniel R. Andres Adma Raia Silvio Nilo Henrique Barbosa. CPTEC/INPE. Models and simulations. AGCM CPTEC/COLA T62L28 (~200 km) 10 years simulation (1982-1991) 50 years simulation (using 1980-2002) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The main moisture flux sources in SAMS and evolution
of the system
Iracema F.A.CavalcantiDaniel R. Andres
Adma RaiaSilvio Nilo
Henrique Barbosa
CPTEC/INPE
Models and simulations
• AGCM CPTEC/COLA T62L28 (~200 km)• 10 years simulation (1982-1991)
• 50 years simulation (using 1980-2002)
• Eta Regional Model (40 km)• DJF simulation (1996-2000)
CPTEC/COLA AGCM
MODEL VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX
NCEP REANALYSIS
NCEP VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX
REGIONAL ETA MODEL
1996 to 2000 DJF SIMULATION
Eta Regional Model 40 km
Downscale from CPTEC/COLA AGCM
MOISTURE FLUX
Moisture flux
precipitation
INTERANNUAL CHANGES
EL NINO CPTEC/COLA AGCM
LA NINA CPTEC/COLA AGCM
EL NINO 82/83- LA NINA 88/89 CPTEC/COLA AGCM
Eta Regional Model
DIURNAL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION DIURNAL CYCLE
00 GMT
06 GMT 12 GMT
18 GMT
DJF
WIND FLOW AT 850 hPa
00 GMT
06 GMT 12 GMT
18 GMT
DJF
ETA MODEL
Submonthly monsoon variabilityZCASLLJ
Dependence on the low level flow
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MODELS
DJF 10 YEARS AVERAGE GRELL ENSEMBLE CONVECTION SCHEME MCGA CPTE/COLA
MONTHLY AND SEASONAL CHANGES
• MONTHLY CHANGES OF MOISTURE FLUX : LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DJF AND JJA.
• MOISTURE FLUX FROM NORTH AND SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AMAZON REGION AND THEN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BRAZIL AND FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC DIRECTLY TO SE, IN DJF.
• IN JJA THE MOISTURE FLUX IS DIRECTED FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTHWEST S.A.
CHANGES IN MOISTURE FLUX /WIND FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
• DIURNAL SCALE• SUBMONTHLY SCALE• SEASONAL SCALE• INTERANNUAL SCALE• INTRASEASONAL SCALE ?
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
VAMOS/CLIVAR, JOSS/UCAR