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Institute for Transport Studies
Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
The Longevity of Behaviour Change: A Case
Study of the London 2012 Olympic and
Paralympic Games
hEART 2014
10th – 12th September 2014
Stephen Parkes, Greg Marsden and Ann Jopson
Atos (2012) Rex (2012)
Overview
• Background to the research
– London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics
– Olympic panel survey
– The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
• Key findings
– What happened during the Games?
– Were any changes sustained?
– The role of employers
– Examining the value of the TTM
• Conclusions
Source: Transport for London
Research Aims
• Study of travel behaviour changes relating to London 2012,
examined over four-waves
– Longitudinal study
– Focus on commute journeys
– How important were employers?
– Were any changes sustained? (short/long-term)
• Studying travel behaviour in the context of a
large disruptive event, which may require
individuals to make distinct and significant changes
• Applying Transtheoretical Model (TTM) to a
widespread, forced disruption
Source: Transport for London
London 2012
• The Olympics – “The greatest show on Earth”
– ‘Major-event’ placing significant pressures on host city
– Up to 800,000 extra journeys on busiest day during London
2012 (Sumner, 2012)
• Great deal of planning to keep system moving
…but it can go wrong – Atlanta 1996
• Travel Demand Management was a key part of the London
preparations
− Behaviour change to complement
infrastructural improvements
Catchpole (2012)
Source: Transport for London
London 2012
Travel Hotspots
Urban Times (2012)
London 2012
• Overall performance reported as positive
• Increased pressure on system but it still coped well
– e.g. 28% increase in underground journeys on same time in 2011
(TfL, 2012, p.162)
• Examples of isolated disruptions but wider system not
compromised:
Panel Survey
• Collaboration between ITS and TfL
• TfL commissioned 3-wave panel survey (carried out by AECOM)
• Examined commute, business travel and non-work journeys
before, during and after the Games
• Explored preparations and the subsequent response by
individuals and employers to the disruption faced
• Included items relating to the TTM
Wave 1 18th to 26th July 2012
Wave 2 10th to 28th
August 2012
Wave 3 8th Nov to 3rd
Dec 2012
Olympic Games 27th July to 12th
August 2012
Paralympic Games 29th August to 9th September 2012
Panel Survey
• Wave 4 survey conducted by ITS in partnership with TfL
– 18th February – 11th March 2014
• Similar format to waves 1-3 but much shorter survey
• Allowed for an examination of the longer-term situation
• Survey responses:
Survey Wave n =
Wave 1 7,194
Wave 2 2,805
Wave 3 1,799
Wave 4 167
The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
• Limited application of the TTM in transport, therefore applied here in an
exploratory role
• Used to study behaviour at the individual level, focuses on psychological
factors that can influence change
• Accepts that a permanent change in behaviour does not always happen
at the first try
– Accounts for relapses
The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
• The stages of change:
• Processes of change
• Self-efficacy
• Decisional balance
Pre-contemplation: I am not considering changing the way I normally travel to work
Contemplation: I am considering changing the way I normally travel to work but I am not in a
position to make this change yet
Preparation: I am doing things to prepare myself to change the way I travel to work
Action: I have tried changing the way I travel to work once or twice since the beginning of this year
Maintenance: I have regularly tried changing the way I travel to work since the beginning of this
year
The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
From Nigg et al., (2011)
What happened during the Games?
• Significant amount of change to commute journeys
– 54% of the sample made at least one change to their commute
– 25% made more than one change
• More changes for those with a greater preparedness to change
Reducing and Re-timing Journeys
• Reducing (31%) or re-timing (25%) journeys most common
• Reducing more likely in those with less preparedness to change
Sustaining Changes Post-Games
Short-term (Wave 3):
• 6% of the sample sustained their changes after the Games
• Working from home (WFH) continued at the Games-time level
• Analysis of socio-demographics showed there were no statistical
differences between those who sustained and those who did not
Long-term (Wave 4):
• Levels of WFH have continued to be maintained
• Other changes have not generally been sustained (e.g. only a
very small proportion continuing to sustain changes in mode)
Value of the TTM
• Those not considering making changes to usual journey to work
were significantly less likely to have changed during the Games
• Self-efficacy important for changing modes
• However, the TTM did not reflect people’s ability to adapt their
travel behaviour over a short-term period
Two-step Cluster Analysis
• Conducted to explore inconsistencies shown in TTM
• 8 Processes of change and 7 self-efficacy items tested
• Produced four clusters that did not match to the theoretical
expectations of the TTM
Two-step Cluster Analysis
1
2
3
4
5
Cluster 1
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
Cluster 4
Strongly Agree
Agree
Neither
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Two-step Cluster Analysis
• Individuals in each cluster were not unified by their stage of
change
• Those in cluster 2 more likely to be further along behaviour
change process
The Role of Employers
• There is evidence that employees in larger business (more than
250 employees) had more support to change, as shown by the
figure
• Those who reduced or relocated journeys were significantly more likely
to be in larger businesses
• However, there were no significant differences in the remaining changes
(mode, route and time)
The Role of Employers
• Advice to change from employers was also varied:
Importance of Social Relationships
• The relationships with colleagues/friends were shown to be
particularly important during the Games
• “Colleagues and friends are discussing changing their travel”
– Large proportion of the sample agreed with this statement
– But, those changing route, time or reducing journeys were significantly more
likely to agree
• More exposure to these relationships for employees in larger
businesses
Conclusions
• As a catalyst for change, the Games was highly effective but
these changes were not sustained in the long-term
– Many people in the sample showed a flexibility to adapt their behaviour in the
short-term
• Employers provided useful channels of communication but their
role during the Games appeared to have its limits
– Main influence being on reducing and re-timing
• The TTM provided some insights but the lack of fit of the data to
the model raises questions about its applicability to the transport
disruption context
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Transport for London for their co-operation and support
in commissioning the panel survey, which was essential for this research.
We are also grateful to AECOM for their work on the panel survey.
The opinions expressed in this presentation are solely those of the
presenter and not necessarily those of Transport for London.
References
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