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The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar System Meg Schwamb Queen’s University Belfast @megschwamb Image Credit: LSST/AURA/National OIR Lab

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

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Page 1: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar System

Meg Schwamb Queen’s University Belfast

@megschwamb

Image Credit: LSST/AURA/National OIR Lab

Page 2: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Image Credit: NASA

Why study the Solar System Small Bodies?

Image Credit: Nature

Page 3: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Image Credit: La Silla-QUEST Kuiper Belt Survey Rabinowitz, Schwamb et al. (2012)

How do we find Solar System objects?

Page 4: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,
Page 5: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,
Page 6: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

The Structure of the Kuiper Belt

3:2 Plutinos

2:1

Classical belt

Scattered Disk

Page 7: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

The Structure of the Kuiper Belt

3:2 Plutinos

2:1

Cold Classicals

Page 8: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Our Giant Planets Moved Stuff Around

Morbidelli & Levison (2003)

Page 9: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Image Credits: Anne Verbiscer

The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science

5+ million small bodies, 1+ billion observations

Page 10: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Slide Credit: LSST Science book/Lynne Jones

Expected LSST Yield

10 year survey - ugrizy photometry with hundreds of visits per object

Currently Known LSST Discoveries Typical number of observations

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) ~20,000 200,000 (D>250m) 60

Main Belt Asteroids (MBAs) ~650,000 6,000,000 (D>500m) 200

Jupiter Trojans ~7000 280,000 (D>2km) 300

TransNeptunian Objects (TNOs) + Scattered Disk Objects (SDOs) ~3000 40,000 (D>200km) 450

Comets ~3000 10,000 ?

Interstellar Objects (ISOs) 2 10 ?

Page 11: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

What is LSST Project Providing

Slide Credit: Mario JurićSee http://ls.st/Document-29545 for a 1 page summary sheet

Page 12: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Finding Near Earth Asteroids

What LSST Can Do

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

NEO

com

plet

enes

sH

∑22

73%

NEOs

Existing resources

LSST Only

LSST + Existing

JPL NEO (D > 140m)

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

PH

Aco

mpl

eten

ess

H∑

22

81%

PHAs

Existing resources

LSST Only

LSST + Existing

LSST Baseline

Credit: Jones et al.( 2018)

Page 13: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

About ~6M objects

200 measurements each

Precise astrometry (10 mas systematic) -> good orbits

Characterization of families

Note: assuming 10% albedo:

H=24 -> D=70mH=20 -> D=430m

LSST Discoveries of Main Belt Asteroids

Slide Credit: Mario Jurić & Lynne Jones

Page 14: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Explore the Origin of Main Belt Comets and Active AsteroidsWhat LSST Can Do

Jewitt (2012)

Ki et al (2018).Adapted by Henry Hsieh

Page 15: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Probe the Neptune Trojans Color-Inclination & Explore the Implications for Origin/Neptune Migration

What LSST Can Do

On-sky positions of Neptune Trojans in 2022 (grey) & 2032 (yellow)

Credit: Edward Lin

Lin et al. (2018)

Page 16: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Explore the Origin of Sedna’s Strange Orbit and Test the Existence of Planet 9

Image Credit: S. Sheppard

3

Sedna’s Strange Orbit

Image Credit: R. Hurt/JPL-Caltech

Alignment of known distant orbits, with q > 45 au & 250 < a < 2000 au. Orbits with q> 60 are shown in red

What LSST Can Do

Page 17: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Credit: Bannister, et al. (2017)

Interstellar Object & Comet Discoveries

Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Meech et al (2018)

Meech et al (2018)

1I/‘Oumuamua 2I/Borisov Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Likely to be at least 1 detection/discovery per year in the LSST era with the discovery of 2I/Borisov

Credit: Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope

Page 18: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Meech et al (2018)Credit: Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope

2I/Borisov 1I/‘Oumuamua

Page 19: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Daniel Macháček.

Page 20: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

ESA F-class mission to fly by a comet with 3 spacecraft (one provided by JAXA): Launch expected in 2028. Comet Interceptor will sit at L2 and when a suitable target is found & reachable, the main spacecraft will leave L2 to intercept

Discovering 10,000 comets, LSST will likely find Comet Interceptor’s target. There will be coordinated community ground-based follow-up to characterize potential Comet Interceptor targets.

Synergies with ESA’sComet Interceptor mission

www.cometinterceptor.space

PI: Geraint Jones (UCL) Deputy PI : Colin Snodgrass (University of Edinburgh)

Image credit: Geraint Jones

Page 21: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,
Page 22: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,
Page 23: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,
Page 24: The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) & the Solar ......The Rubin Observatory and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time will transform Solar System Science 5+ million small bodies,

Credit: LSST/AURA/National OIR Lab