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The Language that Gets People to Give: Phrases that Predict Success on Kickstarter. Tanushree Mitra & Eric Gilbert. What makes some projects succeed while others fail ?. Predictive Features of success and failure ?. QUANTITATIVE APPROACH. Independent Variables Predictive Features. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Language that Gets People to Give:Phrases that Predict Success on
Kickstarter
Tanushree Mitra & Eric Gilbert
What makes some projects
succeed while others fail ?
Predictive Features of success and failure ?
Statistical Model
QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
Dependent Variable:Project outcome (Funded or
Not)
Independent Variables Predictive Features
Statistical Model
QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
Dependent Variable:Project outcome (Funded or
Not)
Independent Variables Predictive Features(?)
Video Present
Goal
Duration
Facebook Connected
Pitch
Category
DATA
45,815K Kickstarter projectsall projects as of June 2012
51.53% funded
48.47% not funded
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Fetch project end date
Project reached end date?
Scrape project description
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
Scrape control variables
Penalized Logistic Regression
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Scrape project pitch
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
Scrape control variables
Statistical Model
Project reached end date?
Fetch project end date
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Fetch project end date
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
Scrape control variables
Statistical Model
Scrape project pitch
Project reached end date?
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Fetch project end date
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
Scrape control variables
Statistical Model
Project reached end date?
Scrape project pitch
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Fetch project end date
Project reached end date?
Scrape project pitch
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
Scrape control variables
Statistical Model
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Fetch project end date
Project reached end date?
Scrape project pitch
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
Scrape control variables
Statistical Model
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
Pitch
~20K unigrams, bigrams, trigrams
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Fetch project end date
Project reached end date?
Scrape project pitch
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
Statistical Model
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
Scrape control variables
59 control variables
Video Present
Goal
Duration
Facebook Connected
Category
45K Kickstarter project URLs
Fetch project end date
Project reached end date?
Scrape project pitch
Lowercase text
Remove stop words
phrase frequency > 50?
phrase in all 13 categories?
[uni,bi,tri]-grams
59 control variables
Statistical Model
Scrape control variables
Statistical Model
STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE
Dependent Variable:Project outcome (Funded or
Not)
Independent Variables Phrases (20K) + Controls (59)
Penalized Logistic Regression
STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE
Dependent Variable:Project outcome (Funded or
Not)
Independent Variables Phrases (20K) + Controls (59)
Friedman et al. 2010
Baseline Model
Controls Only Model
Phrases + ControlsModel
Results: MODEL FITS
Explanatory Power | Error40.8 % |
17.03%
Explanatory Power | Error58.56 % |
2.24%
| Error |
48.47 %
(NF) Predictors
not been able ( β = − 4.07 )
“I have not been able to finish the film because none of my editors will see the project through to the end.”
(NF) Predictors
later i ( β = − 3.04 )
hope to get ( β = − 2.39 )
“I can’t take size orders and possibly hope to get them all made in time
for christmas.”
(NF) Predictors
even a dollar( β = − 3.10 )
Wattenberg & Viegas, 2008
(F) Predictors
mention your ( β = 2.69 )
also receive ( β = 1.83 )
add $40 and you will also receive two vip tickets to the premiere
screening.
(F) Predictors
next step is ( β = 1.07 )
Recording is pretty much done, next step is production.
(F) Predictors
cats ( β = 2.64 )
A closer look at predictive phrases
UNDERSTANDING CONTEXT
Principles of Persuasion
Cialdini, R. B. 1993
1. Reciprocity2. Scarcity3. Authority4. Social Proof5. Social
Identity6. Liking
Principles of Persuasion
Cialdini, R. B. 1993
1. Reciprocity2. Scarcity3. Authority4. Social Proof5. Social
Identity6. Liking
Principles of Persuasion
Cialdini, R. B. 1993
RECIPROCITY
Brehm & Cole 1966, Goranson & Berkowitz, 1966, Ciladini 2001
we’ll mention your (β = 2.69) name in the sleeve of our
full length album
RECIPROCITY
I will thank you on my website, send you
good karma and (β = 2.04) ..
RECIPROCITY
SCARCITY
Ciladini 2001, Ciladini & Goldstein 2004
also, you will be given the chance (β = 2.69) to purchase our small batch
pieces before the public domain
SCARCITY
AUTHORITY
Ciladini 2001, Ciladini & Goldstein 2004
the project will be (β = 18.48)produced by
dove award winning producer
AUTHORITY
SOCIAL PROOF
Ciladini 2001
[name] has pledged (β = 5.42) some money..… so, you can see that i already have people willing to support my
art.
SOCIAL PROOF
Language is a reliable signal of success of crowd-funded
projectsSo are some controls….
CONTROLSGraphic Design β = 1.35Video Present β = 0.60 Facebook Connected β = 0.13
CONTROLSIllustration β = -2.55Journalism β = -1.12Project Duration β = -0.01
… …
IMPLICATIONS
IMPLICATIONS
http://www.cc.gatech.edu/~tmitra3/data/KS.predicts
Also at: http://b.gatech.edu/1mf1C6E
The Language that Gets People to Give:Phrases that Predict Success on
Kickstarter Tanushree Mitra & Eric Gilbert @tanmit | @eegilbert
DATA: http://b.gatech.edu/1mf1C6E
Scan presence of KS phrases in
Google 1T
54K Kickstarter phrasesNon-zero β weights
Google 1T Corpus phrases
GENERAL PHRASES:- 494 positive predictors- 453 negative predictors
χ2 test between phrase frequencies
+ Bonferroni Correction
Search for phrases with significantly higher
difference+
Membership higher in Ggle 1T
Fancy Stats. Huh!
next step isin the
upcomingto announce
….
provide usneed one
….