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The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 October 2016 Otemachi Financial City Grand Cube, 1-9-2 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004, Japan

The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

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Page 1: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016

October 2016

Otemachi Financial City Grand Cube,

1-9-2 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004, Japan

Page 2: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Population movements in Japan

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Office market

Page 3: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 2

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

65-

15-64

0-14

households

Population movements in Japan

The number of households is increasing for now, but is projected to decrease after 2019.

The population of people 65 years or older is expected to level off in 2025 and head downwards from 2040.

In 2015, depopulation was observed for the first time in Japan, based on the national census.

Population and households in Japan

Forecast →← ActualPopulation

(thousand)Households

(thousand)

Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census”

Note 1: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection

Note 2: Forecast of population and the number of households are based on the “Population Census” in 2010, while the preliminary data in the “Population Census” in 2015 is basis for 2015.

Page 4: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 3

Population movements in Greater Tokyo

Population of Greater Tokyo has peaked out in 2015.

On the other hand, the number of households is projected to increase until 2025.

In Greater Tokyo, the population has peaked out; however, the number of households is expected to increase for 10 years.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Tokyo Kanagawa Saitama Chiba

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Tokyo Kanagawa Saitama Chiba

Population of Greater Tokyo

Forecast →← Actual Forecast →← Actual

Number of households in Greater Tokyo

Population

(thousand)

Households

(thousand)

Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census”

Note 1: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection

Note 2: Forecast of population and the number of households are based on the “Population Census” in 2010, while the preliminary data in the “Population Census” in 2015 is basis for 2015.

Page 5: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 4

Population movements in Greater Tokyo

Recently, the population of Greater Tokyo has continued to rise.

Incremental population growth of foreign and Japanese residents in Greater Tokyo

Sources: MOJ “Zairyu Gaikokujin Toukei” “Aliens Statistics” and MIC “Basic Resident Registration”

Note: Foreigner population based on “Zairyu Gaikokujin Toukei” “Aliens Statistics” by 2011 and after that based on “Basic Resident Registration”.

The foreign population dipped temporarily due to the global financial crisis and aftermath of the 2011 earthquake, but

has been rising in line with economic recovery.

Foreigners accounted for 38.6% of the population growth in this area.

58,665

93,950

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

foreigners(by "Zairyu-Gaikokujin-Tokei" foreigners(by "Jumin-Kihon-Daicho" Japanese

61.4%

38.6%

Population

(thousand)

Page 6: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 5

Population movements in Greater Tokyo

The number of net inflows in 2015 recovered to the level of 2005 or 2006.

The inflow is projected to continue.

Population has been inflowing to Greater Tokyo

Net inflows of people to Greater Tokyo

Source: MIC “Jyumin Kihon Daichou Jinkou Idou Houkoku”

Net in

cre

ase

Net d

ecre

ase

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Tokyo Kanagawa Chiba Saitama

Population

(thousand)

Page 7: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 6

Population movements in Greater Tokyo

However, the number of single-person households is expected to peak out in 2030.

Single-person households are expected to drive growth in the number of households in Greater Tokyo over the near term.

Number of households by family composition in Greater Tokyo

Forecast →← Actual

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

4,000

3,000

1,000

2,000

6,000

5,000

7,000

0

Other

One-parent-and-child(ren)

Couple-and-child(ren)

One-person

Couple-only

Households

(thousand)

Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census”

Note 1: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection

Note 2: Forecast of population and the number of households are based on the “Population Census” in 2010, while the preliminary data in the “Population Census” in 2015 is basis for 2015.

Page 8: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 7

Population movements in central Tokyo

Population is expected to increase in the Chuo, Koto, and Minato wards.

In seven wards, the population is projected to decrease by over 10% from 2010 to 2040.

The population in Tokyo’s 23 wards is projected to increase over the longer term only in the three wards along Tokyo Bay

←Actual Forecast→

Ward 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Chuo 100.0 114.9 115.3 116.6 116.8 116.1 114.4

Koto 100.0 108.1 104.4 106.8 108.2 108.8 108.5

Minato 100.0 118.7 107.0 107.9 107.8 107.0 105.2

Shinjuku 100.0 102.2 104.4 104.8 104.4 103.4 101.6

Nerima 100.0 100.8 105.1 105.3 104.5 102.9 100.6

Sumida 100.0 103.6 101.7 102.6 102.7 102.0 100.6

Arakawa 100.0 104.0 103.0 102.8 102.2 101.2 99.7

Chiyoda 100.0 123.8 106.9 106.1 104.6 102.2 99.3

Setagaya 100.0 102.7 102.7 102.4 101.5 100.0 97.9

Shinagawa 100.0 105.9 102.9 102.7 101.7 100.0 97.8

Edogawa 100.0 100.2 101.7 101.1 99.8 98.2 96.2

Bunkyo 100.0 106.4 101.9 101.3 100.1 98.2 95.7

Toshima 100.0 102.2 106.1 104.5 102.2 99.2 95.3

Ota 100.0 103.5 101.6 100.8 99.4 97.5 95.1

Itabashi 100.0 104.9 100.5 99.1 97.2 94.7 91.8

Meguro 100.0 103.6 100.2 98.8 96.8 94.1 91.1

Taito 100.0 112.8 99.5 97.7 95.4 92.6 89.4

Shibuya 100.0 109.9 98.8 96.6 93.9 90.9 87.4

Nakano 100.0 104.4 97.7 95.5 92.9 89.8 86.2

Kita 100.0 101.6 97.6 95.1 92.2 89.0 85.5

Suginami 100.0 102.8 97.6 95.1 92.0 88.5 84.5

Katsushika 100.0 100.2 95.7 92.4 88.7 84.8 80.8

Adachi 100.0 98.2 95.2 91.6 87.5 83.1 78.7

Population trends in the 23 wards of Tokyo (2010=100)

Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census”

Note 1: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection

Note 2: Forecast of population and the number of households are based on the “Population Census” in 2010, while the preliminary data in the “Population Census” in 2015 is basis for 2015.

Page 9: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 8

Percentage of foreigners in central Tokyo

The percentage of foreigners in Tokyo are increasing, and there is a ward where the ratio is over 10%.

Percentage of foreigners in the 23 wards of Tokyo (top 5)

The percentage in Shinjuku (over 10%) is the highest in Tokyo, and the percentages of Toshima and Arakawa are

over 8%.

In the other hand, the 23 wards as a whole have foreigners as 4.2% of their total population, indicating that the

situation of each ward is quite different.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Tatito

Shinjuku

23 wards

Minato

Toshima

Arakawa

Source: MIC

Page 10: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 9

Population aging in central Tokyo

In 2015, one in four people is over 65 years old in just 4 wards; however, the same situation will occur in 7 wards in 2025 and 21 wards in 2035.

Population aging by ward

←Actual Forecast→

Ward 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Sumida 13.1% 15.5% 18.1% 20.2% 21.4% 21.9% 21.1% 21.6% 22.7% 24.8% 28.1%

Arakawa 13.7% 16.5% 18.9% 20.8% 21.9% 23.4% 23.8% 23.5% 24.1% 25.6% 28.4%

Koto 9.4% 12.2% 15.2% 17.3% 19.1% 20.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.7% 24.5% 28.5%

Shinjuku 12.6% 15.3% 17.1% 18.7% 19.1% 21.0% 21.6% 22.0% 23.4% 25.7% 29.3%

Edogawa 8.1% 9.9% 12.8% 15.4% 18.1% 20.6% 21.4% 21.7% 23.3% 26.1% 29.5%

Shinagawa 11.6% 14.5% 17.4% 18.0% 19.4% 21.5% 22.4% 22.8% 24.1% 26.7% 30.8%

Bunkyo 13.9% 16.4% 17.9% 18.3% 18.9% 20.9% 21.7% 22.6% 24.6% 27.3% 31.0%

Ota 11.6% 14.1% 16.3% 18.4% 20.4% 23.0% 24.1% 24.6% 26.0% 28.4% 31.7%

Setagaya 11.1% 13.4% 16.1% 17.3% 18.3% 20.3% 21.2% 22.3% 24.6% 27.9% 31.8%

Taito 15.9% 18.8% 21.1% 23.1% 23.6% 25.1% 25.4% 25.2% 26.0% 28.3% 32.2%

Kita 12.7% 16.0% 19.3% 21.6% 24.0% 26.7% 27.7% 27.6% 28.2% 29.8% 32.8%

Chiyoda 16.6% 20.2% 20.9% 20.2% 19.2% 19.7% 20.5% 21.7% 24.3% 27.9% 32.8%

Itabashi 10.0% 12.7% 16.3% 19.3% 21.3% 24.3% 25.8% 26.4% 27.8% 29.8% 33.1%

Chuo 15.4% 17.6% 18.3% 16.3% 15.9% 16.9% 17.9% 19.0% 22.0% 26.8% 33.4%

Meguro 12.5% 14.8% 17.4% 18.6% 19.6% 22.2% 23.3% 24.4% 26.6% 29.5% 33.5%

Nakano 12.1% 14.6% 16.3% 18.2% 19.9% 22.5% 23.8% 24.8% 26.8% 29.7% 33.8%

Toshima 12.8% 15.7% 18.4% 21.1% 19.3% 19.8% 21.6% 23.1% 25.5% 29.0% 34.3%

Minato 13.7% 16.3% 17.9% 17.8% 17.2% 18.3% 19.5% 21.0% 24.0% 28.4% 34.3%

Katsushika 10.6% 13.2% 16.6% 19.9% 22.0% 24.8% 26.1% 26.8% 28.4% 31.1% 34.5%

Shibuya 12.6% 15.2% 16.9% 18.5% 19.6% 21.9% 23.3% 24.6% 27.3% 31.0% 35.6%

Adachi 9.3% 11.9% 15.9% 19.9% 22.2% 25.4% 26.8% 27.3% 28.9% 31.8% 35.7%

Nerima 9.5% 12.2% 15.4% 20.3% 19.3% 23.1% 25.5% 27.7% 30.8% 34.6% 39.0%

Suginami 11.8% 14.4% 16.8% 18.8% 23.1% 26.3% 28.2% 29.8% 32.4% 35.6% 39.6%

Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census”

Note 1: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection

Note 2: Forecast of population and the number of households are based on the “Population Census” in 2010, while the preliminary data in the “Population Census” in 2015 is basis for

2015.

Page 11: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 10

Population movement in central Tokyo

The increase in Tokyo’s population has consistently outpaced estimates

Actual and projected population movement in Tokyo

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

Forecast in 2010

Forecast in 2005

Forecast in 2000

Actual data

Population

(thousand)

Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census”

Note 1: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection

Note 2: Forecast of population and the number of households are based on the “Population Census” in 2010, while the preliminary data in the “Population Census” in 2015 is basis for 2015.

Page 12: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Population movements in Japan

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Office market

Page 13: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 12

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

(Billion USD)

Japan

China

US

KoreaUK

India

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Entering the 2020s, Japan will remain at third place globally in nominal GDP, ahead of developing countries such as

India.

Japan remains one of the largest economies in the world and should not be

ignored as an investment target

Source: Compiled by NRI from IM F(2016 Apr.) data.

Nominal GDP of major countries

Forecast →←Actual

Page 14: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 13

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

(%)

India

China

Korea

Japan

UKUS

Macro fundamentals of Japan

IMF forecasts estimate Japan’s GDP growth rate at around 0.5% for the next 5 years.

Japan’s economic growth is low compared to other major economies and high

growth going forward looks unlikely

Real GDP growth rate of major economies

←Actual Estimate→

Source: Compiled by NRI from IMF (2016 Apr.) data.

Page 15: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 14

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Fluctuations in each demand component became less pronounced from mid-2015 and continue to remain flat

overall.

Both domestic demand and overseas demand are treading water and there is no driver of economic growth.

(%)

Quarterly real GDP growth and contributions to changes (seasonally adjusted series, YoY)

Source: Compiled by NRI

from Cabinet Office data.

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Private Consumption

Private Investment

Public Demand

Exports

Imports

Real GDP Growth

Page 16: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 15

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0(%) Core CPI BOJ's Core CPI

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Although an increase in the price index was reflected by the consumption tax hike in April 2014, it dulled after that

and the core CPI turned to negative YoY growth in 2016.

The increase rate of the BOJ’s core CPI (excludes fresh food and the energy) is also falling consistently in 2016.

Inflation was temporarily seen, but not enough to overcome deflation completely.

Inflation target

set by BOJ

Year-on-year comparison for the same month of the consumer price index

Sources: Compiled by NRI from

MIC and Bank of Japan data.

Page 17: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 16

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% Monetary Base Money Stock

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Since quantitative and qualitative easing in April 2013, the BOJ has been massively expanding the money supply

and purchasing JGBs.

Aggressive easing by BOJ has continued since 2013.

YoY change of money supply (Average balance) BOJ’s holdings of JGBs

0

100

200

300

400

Source: Compiled by

NRI from Bank of

Japan data

(Trillion Yen)

Source: Compiled by

NRI from Bank of

Japan data

Page 18: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 17

Macro fundamentals of Japan

The BOJ introduced NIRP which set the policy rate applied to the part of the current account balance at minus 0.1%

in January 2016.

Negative interest rates were also introduced additionally, and the short- and long-term interest rates dropped into negative territory.

Short-term interest rate (unsecured call rate) (Each end of the month) Long-term interest rate (10y-JGB) (Each end of the month)

Source: Compiled by

NRI from Bank of

Japan data

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

(%) (%)

Source: Compiled by NRI from Bloomberg data

Page 19: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 18

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Recent yen strength reflects mainly fading perceptions of a US rate hike, a risk-off mode by investors, and a

Japanese current account surplus

A reversal from yen weakness up to now, the yen has been stronger since the start of 2016.

Yen-dollar exchange rate (each end of the month)

(USDJPY=X)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Source: Compiled by NRI from Bloomberg data

Page 20: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 19

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Although the trade deficit and the reduction of the current surplus continued, the trade balance changed to the black in 2016 and also

reached a high level after several years.

The structure of the current surplus driven by exports is changing: Import value decreased due to a strong yen and declining resource

prices, and the deficit of the service balance also decreased due to an increase in foreign visitors to Japan. The primary balance which

shows subsidiary dividends and interest income on bonds is on an uptrend. On the other hand, export value has been falling recently.

The current account surplus returned to a high level due to the trade surplus, while the structure of the current account balance is changing.

Current account balance

Source: Compiled by NRI from MOF data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Trillion Yen)

(年)

Trade balance Service balance Primary income balance Second income balance Current account

Page 21: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 20

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4(%)

Japan US UK

0

50

100

150

200

250

300(%)

Japan US UK

Japan US UK

Gross debt

Net debt

Macro fundamentals of Japan

The government debt to GDP ratio has becoming flat in recent years due to a reduction in the primary balance deficit

and restraint of interest payments due to monetary easing as well as the increase in nominal GDP that is the

denominator of the ratio.

Government debt has plateaued at high level, while a primary fiscal balance surplus is not in sight.

Government debt to GDP ratio Primary balance to GDP ratio

Estimate →←Actual Estimate →←Actual

Source: Compiled by NRI from

IMF (2016 Apr) dataSource: Compiled by NRI from IMF (2016 Apr) data

Page 22: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 21

Beijing

Cairo

Chicago

Delhi

Dhaka

Guangzhou

Houston

Karachi

Kinshasa

Kolkata Lagos

LondonLos Angeles

Mexico City

Mumbai

New York

Osaka

Paris

São Paulo

Seoul Shanghai

ShenzhenTianjin

Tokyo

Washington

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Tokyo continues to be the world’s largest city in terms of population and GDP.

Population/GDP forecast for 2025 (Top 15 cities in terms of population or GDP)

Source:Compiled by NRI based on UN and Euromonitor data.

2025 nominal GDP

by city

(in billion USD)

2025 population

by city

( in thousands)

*No data for GDP of Dhaka and Kinshasa

Page 23: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

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Macro fundamentals of Japan

Tokyo has the second largest concentration of world-class enterprises.

Number of HQ of Fortune Global 500 companies by city (2016) Fortune Global 500 companies in Tokyo (within top 200)

Source: Compiled by NRI from Fortune Global 500 (2016) data.

Rank CompanyRevenue

(Mil. USD)

36 Honda Motor 121,624

37 Japan Post Holdings 118,762

60 Nippon Telegraph & Telephone 96,134

79 Hitachi 83,584

92 SoftBank Group 76,469

113 Sony 67,519

131 JX Holdings 62,511

135 Dai-ichi Life Insurance 61,090

138 Marubeni 60,810

151 Mitsubishi 57,689

169 Toshiba 52,032

177 Tokyo Electric Power 50,561

179 Seven & I Holdings 50,099

191 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group 47,600

Beijing, 57

Tokyo, 37

New York, 17

London, 17

Paris, 17

Seoul, 11

Shanghai, 9Osaka, 7

Hong Kong, 7Houston, 7

Zurich, 5

Others, 309

Page 24: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Population movements in Japan

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Office market

Page 25: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 24

The activity level of professional investors has steadily recovered, and market conditions are approaching that of 2005 to 2006.

In FY2013, J-REITs acquired over 2 trillion yen in property and showed overwhelming strength as buyers. After

FY2014, J-REITs were replaced by private equity as the leading real estate buyers.

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Acquisitions of securitized real estate

billion yen

Source: Compiled by NRI from MLIT “Real

Estate Securitization” data

Page 26: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 25

Office, residential, commercial and logistics properties account for 80% of transaction value but trading in hotels is growing more active.

A sharp rise in inbound demand from a jump in the number of foreign visitors is stimulating hotel investment.

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Acquisitions of securitized real estate by asset class

billion yen

Allocation of securitized real estate by asset class

in the past 5 years

Source: Compiled by NRI from MLIT “Survey of the Current State of Real Estate Securitization” data

Note: Because the usage of securitizations that require actual TMK is unclear, they have not been included after 2001. Because of this, the yearly totals and amounts will not match up with the documents

cited for this entry.

Page 27: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 26

Reflecting a lack of investable assets in Tokyo, investment money has begun to flow to other regions.

After FY2012, transaction volume in Tokyo has accounted for about 50% of the nationwide total due to a shortage

of investment opportunities in the urban area.

In FY2015 regional investment gained additional momentum, so from this viewpoint, it can be said that a market is

retracing the previous real estate cycle.

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Number of properties securitized by region

Source: Compiled by NRI from MLIT “Survey of the Current State of Real Estate Securitization” data

Note: Securitization of TMK properties is not included because their use is unknown.

Page 28: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 27

4.6

8.8

13.6

-7.4

8.7

4.8

-11.9

3.8

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total return recovered to 8.7%, reaching the 2005 Q2 level.

Prior to the global financial crisis, total return reached 8.5% in 2005 Q2, and rose through 2006 Q2. Total return remained above c10%

until 2007 Q1.

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Source: MCI Real Estate - IPD

Income Return

Total Return

Capital Return

Performance trend in Japan

Page 29: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 28

Cap rates compressed rapidly and are lower than 2007 for some assets.

In the Tokyo market, an increasing number of real estate deals have cap rates of 3-4%. Some investors believe

arguing cap rates is futile as one can expect higher rents. Such market players consider timing and level of rent

increase more important than cap rate compression.

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Cap rates in Japan for major investment areas

Source: Compiled by NRI from Japan Real Estate Institute “Japanese Real

Estate Investor Survey” data.

Page 30: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 29

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Fierce competition among commercial banks continues to help boost prices.

Banks’ lending attitude toward the real estate industry is the most lenient since 2000 and the standard of the time of

the global financial crisis in 2007 is exceeded. Many people in Japan believe there are too many banks, and

spreads continue to fall with covenants loosening.

Along with mega-banks and other major banks, regional mid-tier banks are entering the market, so conditions look

unlikely to change over the near term.

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Financial institutions’ lending attitude DI toward the real estate industry

Loose

Tight

Source: Compiled by NRI from

BOJ data.

Page 31: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Office market

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Population movements in Japan

Page 32: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 31

Office floor space shares by major region

Office market

Tokyo area holds 60% of Japan’s office rental market.

Japan has a stock of around 106 million ㎡ of available office rental space. The Tokyo area holds an overwhelming

share of the market at 64 million ㎡, comprising 60% of the total.

Source: JREI “The Annual Japanese Office Buildings Survey”

Note: Data is as of January 2014.

Note: The survey focuses on the central area of each city.

Note: Properties less than 3,000 square meters are excluded.

59.9%

4.7%1.0%

1.8%

14.9%

1.7% 1.0%5.5%

3.3%2.4%

2.1% 1.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Tokyo Yokohama Saitama Chiba Osaka Kobe Kyoto Nagoya Fukuoka Sapporo Sendai Hiroshima

(5.00million ㎡)

(63.94million ㎡)

(1.03million ㎡)(1.95million ㎡)

(15.91million ㎡)

(1.85million ㎡)(1.12million ㎡)

(5.87million ㎡)(3.57million ㎡)

(2.54million ㎡)(2.23million ㎡)

(1.72million ㎡)

Tokyo Metropolitan Area

67.4%

12 major cities106.73million ㎡

Osaka Area

17.7%

Page 33: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 32

Tokyo’s Central Business District (CBD) is concentrated in five wards

Tokyo’s CBD has an accumulation of office buildings and is concentrated in an area of 5km square, concentrated in

Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shibuya, and Shinjuku wards.

30 km

30 km

Tokyo13.22 million people

Kanagawa9.07 million people

Saitama7.15 million people

Chiba6.15 milion people

SetagayaMinato

ItabashiKita

Adachi

Katsushika

Edogawa

Koto

SumidaTaito

Arakawa

Toshima

Bunkyo

Shibuya

ShinjukuChiyoda

Chuo

Meguro

Shinagawa

Ohta

Nakano

Nerima

Suginami

Office market

Page 34: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 33

Monthly (Jan 2013 –Dec 2015)

Source: Miki Shoji Co., Ltd.

Office market

Vacancy rates in the Tokyo office market have been improving for over three

consecutive years.

Over the past 15 years, vacancy rates have been experiencing regular ups and downs, tending not to be stable for

more than two years.

Yearly (1998 - 2015)

Vacancy rate movement in Tokyo CBD

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Chiyoda

Chuo

Minato

Shinjyuku

Shibuya

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Chiyoda

Chuo

Minato

Shinjyuku

Shibuya

Page 35: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 34

Monthly (Jan 2013 – Apr 2016)

Source: Miki Shoji Co., Ltd.

Note: One tsubo is 3.3 square meters.

Office market

Rents entered an upward phase from around 2013 in all 5 Tokyo wards.

Yearly (1999 - 2015)

Rent trends in Tokyo CBD (yen/tsubo per month)

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(yen/tsubo)

Chiyoda

Chuo

Minato

Shinjuku

Shibuya

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

(yen/tsubo)

Chiyoda

Chuo

Minato

Shinjuku

Shibuya

Page 36: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 35

3,818 3,8353,660

3,461

3,243

2,020 1,988

1,884

1,467 1,474 1,415

3,648 3,6433,565 3,498

2,083 2,078 2,035 1,998

1,5391,533 1,501 1,473

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

23区

5区

3区

(千人)

The number of Tokyo’s office workers is declining at a fast rate than published

forecasts

Trend and forecast of office worker numbers in Tokyo

Office market

Central 3 wards

(Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato)

Central 5 wards

(Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shibuya, Shinjuku)

23 wards

(1,000 people)

Forecast compiled in December 2010 (same for 5 and 3 wards)

Data announced in October 2013 same for 5 and 3 wards)

Source: MIC “Population Census” and Tokyo Metropolitan Government “Shugyosha no Yosoku”

Page 37: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 36

14.8%

15.8%16.4%

11.8% 11.8%

11.6%

13.5%

15.0%

15.6%

8.9% 8.7% 8.4%

6.2% 6.2% 6.1%

15.4%

15.3% 15.3%

11.5% 11.4% 11.3% 11.3%

15.2% 15.4%

15.5% 15.5%

8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%

6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

千代田区

港区

中央区

新宿区

渋谷区

Chiyoda and Minato have been increasing their share of office workers, while

Chuo and Shibuya have been flat and Shinjuku has been losing share

Trend of office worker share in Tokyo’s CBD (23 wards =100%)

Office Market

Minato

Shibuya

Chuo

Chiyoda

Shinjuku

Source: MIC “Population Census” and Tokyo Metropolitan Government “Shugyosha no Yosoku”

Page 38: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 37

Office space supply in Tokyo’s 23 wards

Source: Mori Building Company “Market Trend Survey of Large-Scale Office Buildings in Tokyo's 23 Wards”

Office market

Despite the dwindling number of office workers, new office supply will likely

continue to grow.

56 55

83

100108104

114118

183

92

119

74

99

36

72

91

125

216

121

77

154

119

65

86 85

117

175

58

87

111107

63

131

183

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

50

100

150

200

250

1986

1987

198

8

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

200

5

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

# of buildingsSupplied floor area

(1,000 ㎡)

Office supply areaNumber of building supplied

forecast

Page 39: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 38

Tokyo office market cap rate trend

Source: Japan Real Estate Institute “Real Estate Investor’s Survey”

Office market

Cap rates continues to decrease from 2012, reaching the level of 2007.

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

Oct

-03

Ap

r-0

4

Oct

-04

Ap

r-0

5

Oct

-05

Ap

r-0

6

Oct

-06

Ap

r-0

7

Oct

-07

Ap

r-0

8

Oct

-08

Ap

r-0

9

Oct

-09

Ap

r-1

0

Oct

-10

Ap

r-1

1

Oct

-11

Ap

r-1

2

Oct

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Oct

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Oct

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Oct

-15

Chiyoda(Marunouchi) Chuo(Nihonbashi) Minato(Toranomon)

Shinagawa Shinjuku Shibuya

ShinjukuShinagaShibuyaMinato(Toranomon)Chuo(Nihonbashi)Chiyoda(Marunouchi)

wa

Page 40: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 39

Office rent trend in ex-Tokyo market

Source: Miki Shoji Co., Ltd.

Office market

Vacancy rate improvement not leading to a recovery in rents in the ex-Tokyo office

market.

Office vacancy trend in ex-Tokyo market

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Sendai

Fukuoka

NagoyaYokohama

SapporoOsaka

Tokyo

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(yen/tsubo)

Tokyo

OsakaNagoyaYokohamaFukuoka

SendaiSapporo

Page 41: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 40

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Oct

-03

Ap

r-0

4

Oct

-04

Ap

r-0

5

Oct

-05

Ap

r-0

6

Oct

-06

Ap

r-0

7

Oct

-07

Ap

r-0

8

Oct

-08

Ap

r-0

9

Oct

-09

Ap

r-1

0

Oct

-10

Ap

r-1

1

Oct

-11

Ap

r-1

2

Oct

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Oct

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Oct

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Oct

-15

Ex-Tokyo office market cap rate trend

Source: Japan Real Estate Institute “Real Estate Investor’s Survey”

Office market

Liquidity is growing in ex-Tokyo as well as the real estate investment market rises

and becomes overheated.

As property acquisition becomes more difficult in Tokyo, investment money must look to regional markets.

SendaiSapporoFukuokaNagoyaYokohamaOsaka

Page 42: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Office market

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Population movements in Japan

Page 43: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 42

Breakdown of all households by housing type (2013)

Source: MIC “Housing and Land Survey”

Number of households by housing type 1988 - 2013

Residential market

About 20% of all households in Japan are living in non-public rental apartments,

and the percentage is trending upwards.

Households living in non-public rental apartments (excluding wooden apartments; hereafter the same in this section),

which numbered 3.34 million in 1988, increased by about 3.3 times to 9.96 million (about 20% of all households) in

2013.

3,7604,097

4,4214,716

4,9895,238

1,411 1,578 1,682 1,724 1,783 1,857

334 490 650 750 879 996

9%

12%

15%16%

18%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

'88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13

Ratio

of H

ou

seh

old

s Living in

Private

Re

ntal &

A

partm

en

t Ho

use

(no

n-w

oo

d)

Nu

mb

er o

f Ho

use

ho

lds

(un

it:1

0,00

0)

Households Living in HousingHouseholds Living in Rental HousesHouseholds Living in Private Rental & Apartment Houses (non-wood)Ratio of Households Living in Private Rental & Apartment Houses (non-wood)

Own House63%

Private Rental House,

Apartment House (non-

wood)20%

Private Rental Housing, Others

9%

Public Rental House

6%

Company Housing

2%

Page 44: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 43

Housing choices of moving households 1984 - 2013

Source: MIC “Housing and Land Survey”

Residential market

The total number of moving households has decreased, but the ratio of households

moving to non-public rental apartments is trending upwards.

The number of moving households peaked out in 1994-98 and decreased to about 77% of the peak level in 2009-13.

The number of households moving to non-public rental apartments is also on a decreasing trend, although its ratio to

the total number of moving households is trending upward.

1,1031,186 1,221

1,1351,039

939

782884 868

778698

639

427532 557

502 466 447

39%

45% 46% 44% 45%48%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

84-88 89-93 94-98 99-03 04-08 09-13

Ratio

of H

ou

seh

old

s Living in

Private

Re

ntal &

A

partm

en

t Ho

use

s

Nu

mb

er

of

Mo

vin

g H

ou

seh

old

s (U

nit

:10,

000)

Number of Moving Households in Past 5 Years

Number of Households Moved into Rental Houses

Number of Households Moved into Private Rental (Apartment) Houses

Ratio of Households Moved into Private Rental (Apartment) Houses

Page 45: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 44

Location choices of moving households

Source: MIC “Housing and Land Survey”

Residential market

The majority of households moving to non-public rental apartments moved within

the same city.

Looking at the former locations of households moving into non-public rental apartments in seven major cities, those

that moved within the same city were greater in number than those that moved in from outside the city.

Tokyo’s 23 wards and Osaka saw a decline in households moving into non-public rental apartments from outside the

city, while major regional cities saw no change.

28 30 28 31 32 28 27 33

165 157 148 137

56 57 55 55 73 61 53 50 27 27 23 22 47 46 41 4850 46 48 55 25 24 24 27

266

207 197 200

58 54 51 58

10586 77 73

36 37 32 3045 47 49 54

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

94-9

8

99-0

3

04-0

8

09-1

3

94-9

8

99-0

3

04-0

8

09-1

3

94-9

8

99-0

3

04-0

8

09-1

3

94-9

8

99-0

3

04-0

8

09-1

3

94-9

8

99-0

3

04-0

8

09-1

3

94-9

8

99-0

3

04-0

8

09-1

3

94-9

8

99-0

3

04-0

8

09-1

3

Sapporo Sendai Tokyo 23

Wards

Nagoya Osaka Hiroshima Fukuoka

Bre

akd

ow

n o

f In

-Flo

w H

ou

seh

old

s M

ove

d in

Pri

vate

Re

nta

l Ho

use

s (n

on

-wo

od

) (U

nit

:1,0

00)

Household moving in a city

Household moving out a city

Page 46: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 45

Housing stock by type 1988-2013

Source: MIC “Housing and Land Survey”

Residential market

The supply of non-public rental apartment units has increased more sharply than

total housing stock.

The growth of rental apartments (public and non-public combined) outpaced the growth of overall housing as well as

the more modest rise of rental housing in general.

As a result, the ratio of rental apartments to total rental houses increased from c60% to 70%.

Housing growth rates by type

39 44

50 54

58 61

16 18

20 21 22 23

12 14 15 16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

'88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13

Ho

usi

ng

Sto

ck (U

nit

:1 m

illio

n)

Number of Houses

Number of RentalHouses

Number of Rental & Apartment Houses (non-wood)

100

107

114

119

103

108

112 112

124

130

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

'98 '03 '08 '13

Gro

wth

Rat

e (1

988

= 10

0)Number of Houses

Number of RentalHouses

Number of Rental & Apartment Houses (non-wood)

Page 47: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 46

New housing supply trend: 1991-2015

Source: MLIT “Survey of Construction Work Started”

Breakdown of new rental housing construction by region

Residential market

Number of new housing starts decreases substantially in 2009, and is now on the

path to recovery.

The number of new housing starts in 2015 increased slightly on 2014, and the 900,000 unit mark was reached again

Because the number of new owner-built housing start kept decreasing, and the number of construction of new rental houses increased, the weighting of rental houses in construction housing rose.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99 00 01

02

03

04 05 06

07

08

09

10

11

12 13 14

15

Ratio

of R

en

tal Ho

use

s

Nu

mb

er o

f C

on

stru

ctio

n S

tart

s(U

nit:

1,0

00)

Own House Rental House Company House

House Built for Sale Ratio of Rental House

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

Ne

w R

en

tal H

ou

sin

g C

on

stru

ctio

n b

y R

egi

on

(Un

it:1

,00

0)

Provincial Region

Kinki Region

Chuubu Region

Metropolitan Region

Page 48: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 47

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Re

nta

l Ho

usi

ng

Vac

ancy

Rat

e (

Un

it: %

)

All Tokyo areas

23 Tokyo districts

Tokyo cities

Kanagawa

Vacancy Rates of Rental Housing (non-wood) in Major Cities

Source: TAS Corp. and At Home Co., Ltd. “Report on Rental Housing Market”

Vacancy Rates of Rental Housing in Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Residential market

Rate of vacancy in Tokyo’s 23 wards and Tokyo city tend to improve. On the other

hand, rate of vacancy in Kanagawa with the high apartment ratio is rising suddenly.

It increased in rental apartment construction by the tax avoidance purpose with a basic deduction's of an inheritance tax being reduced from January 2015.

Because of number increasing in apartment supply irrespective of demand action, rate of vacancy is rising suddenly centering on the suburb part with the high apartment ratio occupied in a rental apartment.

Source: MIC “Housing and Land Survey”

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sapporo Sendai Tokyo23

Wards

Nagoya Osaka Hiroshima Fukuoka

Vac

ancy

Rat

e o

f R

en

tal H

ou

sin

g (n

on

-wo

od

) (U

nit

:%) '98 '03 '08 '13

Page 49: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 48

Source: MIC “Consumer Price Index”

Residential market

Improved vacancy rates are not enough to raise rent levels.

The rent level of non-public rental housing rose steadily from 1990 to 2000, after which it gradually declined. The

rent level downtrend continued in 2015.

Rents in the private sector (annual average) – nationwide and central Tokyo

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

Pri

vate

(A

nn

ual

Ave

rage

) R

en

t In

de

x (B

ase

Ye

ar 2

01

0)

Japan

Tokyo 23 Wards

Page 50: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 49

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2012 2013 2014 2015

Mo

nth

ly R

ent

Leve

l (U

nit:

Yen

/tu

bo

=3

.3m

2)

Tokyo 3 central districts

Tokyo 23 districts

Nagoya city

Osaka city

Fukuoka city

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2012 2013 2014 2015

Occ

up

ancy

Rat

e (

Un

it:%

)

Tokyo 3 central districts

Tokyo 23 districts

Nagoya city

Osaka city

Fukuoka city

Occupancy rates of REIT-owned and private fund-owned properties

Source: Association for Real Estate Securitization of Japan “ARES J-REIT Property Database”

Monthly rents of REIT-owned and private fund-owned properties

Residential market

The operating ratio of REIT case housing and the private fund reached the high

standard, and downtown 3 wards and Tokyo 23-ku's rent standard is rising.

Occupancy rates in Nagoya and Fukuoka have peaked. Rent levels remain flat or are on a slight downtrend.

Page 51: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 50

Housing ownership rate in Japan by age group

Source: MIC “Housing and Land Survey”

Residential market

The rate of housing ownership, which has a negative impact on rental housing

demand, has shown a downward trend in the 40-49 age group.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1998 2003 2008 2013

70+

60-69

50-59

40-49

30-39

-29

(age)

Page 52: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Office market

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Population movements in Japan

Page 53: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 52

New retail space supply vs. number of development projects

Note: The reported numbers for the fiscal years 2002 and 2008 include stores without floor space indication.

Retail property market

The number of locations for large stores has been on a downtrend in recent years.

Source: METI “Large-scale Retail Chain Site Expansion Report”

2,455

3,335 3,729

4,178 4,545

3,983 4,369

1,919 2,081 2,351 2,193

2,860 2,824 2,607

2,098

450

638

786 738 731 730 750

654

500

584 620

738 705

669

569

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er of p

rojects(cases)

Flo

or

Are

a(1

00

0m

2)

(year)

Floor Area Number of projects

Page 54: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 53

Overall floor area and per-store floor area for shopping centers

Note: In the old SC standard, only shopping malls with more than 10 retail tenants were considered.

In the new SC standard, the shopping center must have more than 10 tenants including food stalls, service centers and retail outlets.

On the same note, the shopping center must have more than 1,500 m2 retail space.

Retail property market

For shopping centers, the total floor area for all stores and the floor area per store

are both on the rise.

Source: Council of Shopping Centers “SC White Book”

30.6 30.4 31.5 33.1 34.6

36.5 38.0

42.1 42.7 44.2 45.7 46.4 47.9 49.8

11.8 11.6 12.1 12.4 12.8

13.2 13.6 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3

15.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Floo

r area per sh

op

pin

g center

Ove

rall

flo

or

area

(year)

Overall floor area Floor area per SC

(in 1 million m2) (in 1000m2/store)Old SC

Standard

New SC

Standard

Page 55: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 54

YoY comparison of existing shopping centers’ annual sales

Source: Council of Shopping Centers “Overall Sales Statistics Report”

Retail property market

Downtrend in shopping center sales is mitigating.

-3.4

-2.2 -2.1-1.6 -1.7

0.3 0.30.0

-1.5

-6.8

-2.0

-1.3

0.5

-0.50.1 0.0

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(%)

Page 56: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

Apr Ju

l

Oct Jan

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Consumer outlook index chart

Source: Cabinet Office “Consumer Trends Survey”

Retail property market

Abenomics has not changed consumer outlook dramatically.

▼ Dec. 2012

Liberal Democratic Party

becomes the ruling party

again

Note: Consumer outlook index calculation methodology:

Consumers are asked to rate their outlook for the next 6 months for the following 4 categories: “Lifestyle”, “Income”, “Job environment” and “Determining when to purchase consumer

durables” using a 5-scale index.

Each of the 5 scales is assigned a value: +1 for “Will get better,” +0.75 for “Will get somewhat better,” +0.5 for “Won’t change,” +0.25 for “Will get somewhat worse,” and +0 for “Will get

worse”. This numerical index is used to provide a component ratio for each of the answers, from which the results are calculated.

To illustrate, a value of 50 will be produced if all participants answer “Won’t change” for all available items.

Page 57: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 56

1st floor rent ranking in 13 principal business areas (yen/month/tsubo)

Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, BAC Urban Projects, and Attractors Lab “Retail Chain Rental Trends”

Note1: Rent in Yokohama is shown to have spiked in the early half of 2012, but this can be attributed to the extremely small sample size

Note 2: Rent in Shinjuku is shown to have spiked in the late half of 2012, but this can be attributed to a sample bias toward small, high-rent properties

Note 3: Rent in Ikebukuro is shown to have dived in the early half of 2013, but this can be attributed to a sample bias toward low-rent properties in unfavorable locations

Retail property market

Compared to other areas, rent levels in Ginza, Omotesando, and Shinjuku are still

high.

※2

※1 ※3

Tokyo Metropolitan

Area

Provincial Areas

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Late 2011 Early 2012 Late 2012 Early 2013 Late 2013 Early 2014 Late 2014 Early 2015 Late 2015

Ginza

Omotesando

Ikebukuro

Shinjuku

Shibuya

Yokohama

Shinsaibashi

Oodori (Sapporo)

Sannomiya (Kobe)

Sendai

Tenjin (Fukuoka)

Shijokawaramachi (Kyoto)

Sakae (Nagoya)

(yen / month / tsubo)

Ginza

Omotesando

Shinjuku

Page 58: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 57

Commercial establishment cap rates (expected yield)

Source: Japan Real Estate Institute “Real Estate Investor’s Survey”

Retail property market

Cap rates have been falling from around 2011, and hit a record low in metropolitan Tokyo.

Definition:

Metropolitan high-class specialty stores:

Length of time after construction -or- large-scale repair/improvement:

less than 5 years

Tenants: Mainly retailers of high-class brands.

Rent system: Mainly fixed-term, variable rental schemes based on the

revenue.

Areas: Along Chuodoori in Ginza’s Chuo district.

Along Omotesando in Shibuya’s Omotesando district.

Suburban shopping centers:

Sales floor area: around 20,000m2

Key tenants: Prominent general merchandise stores (GMS)

Rent system: Mainly fixed-term, fixed-charge rental schemes

Areas: Along main thoroughfares within about an hour from

metropolitan Tokyo.

Stores for areas outside Tokyo follow similar locational conditions as

above.

Metropolitan , GinzaMetropolitan , Omotesando

Suburban, Nagoya

Metropolitan , NagoyaMetropolitan, Osaka

Suburban, TokyoSuburban, Osaka

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Page 59: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Office market

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Population movements in Japan

Page 60: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 59

Cargo quantity by transport method (FY2012)

(Unit: 1 million tons)

Automobile cargo quantity movement

Note: The chronological continuity of data from prior to 2009 could not be guaranteed due to the changes made to the tallying methodology in the middle of 2010.

Logistics property market

Truck-based transport volume (in tons), which forms the bedrock of Japan’s cargo

industry, has continued to decline in recent years.

Truck-based (automobile) transport is the primary transport method that constitutes a large share of Japan’s freight traffic.

In recent years, the volume of cargo transported via automobile has declined due to the downturn in the volume handled by personal-

use trucks.

Source: MIC “Transport quantity by transport method” and MLIT “Automobile Transport Statistics Survey”

Motor vehicles 4,366,91%

Coastwise vessels 366,8%

Domestic aviation 1,0%

Railways

42,1%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

'60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13

Business Personal

(1 million tons)

Page 61: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 60

46.4%

59.2%

72.4%

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

2000

2005

2010

(instances)

Below 0.1t 0.1~0.5t 0.5~1t 1~5t Above 5t

64.4%

69.2%

75.3%

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000

2000

2005

2010

(instances)

Below 0.1t 0.1~0.5t 0.5~1t 1~5t Above 5t

Industry-wide (except warehousing) distribution quantity by lot size

(unit: number of instances)

Warehousing distribution quantity per lot size

(number of instances)

Source: MLIT “Logistics Census”

Logistics property market

As the movement to smaller logistics lots progresses, the quantity distributed in

such lots appears to be in upward trend based on the number of instances.

As the movement to smaller logistics lots progresses across the whole industry, the quantity distributed has

increased to a yearly rate of 4.0% based on the number of reported instances.

The increased quantity of distribution in warehouses is remarkably high. This increase is propelled by the increase in

distribution quantity using small lots that are less than 0.1 tons.

CAGR

4.5%

CAGR

3.7%

CAGR

7.3%

CAGR

12.6%

Page 62: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 61

Market size of B-to-C e-Commerce

Note: Business -to-consumer e-commerce: sale of products and services to consumers in general via the Internet

Logistics property market

Small-lot consignments increase, due partly to the expansion of e-Commerce,

which is expected to continue growing hereafter.

Market size of Business-to-Consumer e-Commerce is expected to surpass 20 trillion yen in 2019.

Source: NRI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

202120202019201820172016

(trillion JPY)

201520142013

Page 63: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 62

Nationwide number of supplied warehouses

including warehouses for transport and transport industry shareFloor space per warehouse building

Source: MLIT “Construction Statistics”

Logistics property market

While new supply has stopped dwindling, facilities are growing larger due to

businesses consolidating their logistics capabilities.

The number of supplied warehouse buildings fell to roughly 23% of the peak level in 1991 (12,000 buildings/year) which has stabilized

in recent years.

The number of supplied warehouse buildings for the transport industry is dwindling at a more relaxed pace compared to the rest of the

industry (see figure below left), but the floor space per building is on an upward trend (below right).

This explains the increased need for SCM support for generic enterprises and new/large-scale logistics facilities for logistics

consolidation.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

'88

'89

'90

'91

'92

'93

'94

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

(Buildings)

Transport industry Other than transport Transport industry share

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

'88

'89

'90

'91

'92

'93

'94

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

(㎡)Entire industry Other than transport Transport industry

Page 64: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 63

Order volume for construction of warehouses/logistics facilities by ordering industry

Note: Only contracts worth 500 million yen and above are included

Logistics property market

Development of logistics real estate, which had been shrinking since the global

financial crisis, is now back in full swing.

Source: MLIT “Construction Order Trends, Statistics and Survey”

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(1 billion yen) Real estate industry Transport industry Others

Page 65: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 64

Logistics property market

Major foreign-based logistics property players and Japanese real estate developers are

gearing up for roadside development ahead of new expressway construction.

Ken-O Expressway

Gaikan

Expressway

Joban

Expressway

Chuo

Expressway

Tomei Expressway

DPL Kawasaki YakouDeveloper:Daiwa House IndustryCompletion:Mar.2017Total floor area:119,000㎡

Prologis Park Ichikawa 3Developer:PrologisCompletion:Dec.2017Total floor area:64,000㎡

Logi-Cross AtsugiDeveloper:Mitsubishi EstateCompletion:Mar.2017Total floor area:30,000㎡ MFLP FunabashiⅠ

Developer:Mitsui FudosanCompletion:Sep.2016Total floor area:198,000㎡

GLP Sayama HidakaⅡDeveloper:GLPCompletion:2016 AutumnTotal floor area:85,000㎡

MFLP HiratsukaDeveloper:Mitsui FudosanCompletion:Nov.2016Total floor area:33,000㎡

Logi-Square NiizaDeveloper:CRECompletion:Apr.2017Total floor area:26,000㎡

Logi-Square MoriyaDeveloper:CRECompletion:May.2017Total floor area:34,000㎡

Logi-Square UrawamisonoDeveloper:CRECompletion:Apr.2017Total floor area:52,000㎡

DPL Kawaguchi RyoukeDeveloper:Daiwa House IndustryCompletion:Oct-Dec.2017Total floor area:43,000㎡

DPL NagareyamaIDeveloper:Daiwa House IndustryCompletion:Feb.2018Total floor area:144,000㎡

DPL SatteDeveloper:Daiwa House Industry

Redwood KawashimaDistribution CenterDeveloper:Redwood GroupCompletion:Feb.2017Total floor area:40,000㎡

GLP KashiwaⅡDeveloper:GLPCompletion:Jan.2017Total floor area:32,000㎡

Narashino AkanehamaⅢDeveloper:Sumitomo CorporationCompletion:Sep.2016Total floor area:38,000㎡

Redwood NaritaDistribution CenterDeveloper:Redwood GroupCompletion:Dec.2016Total floor area:23,000㎡

Logi-Cross NarashinoDeveloper:Mitsubishi EstateCompletion:2018 SpringTotal floor area:41,000㎡

Expressway

Expressway

(Planned)

New devts

HanedaAirport

Narita Airport

Source: Compiled by NRI from companies’ respective websites

Page 66: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 65

Monthly rent offers and vacancy rates of logistics properties

Note: Logistics facilities which have a total lot area or total floor area of 10,000m2

Logistics property market

Low vacancy rates have not yet translated into higher rents in the Tokyo area.

Source: Ichigo Real Estate Information Service “Survey on the Logistics Facilities Rental Market”

Rent offer

Vacancy rates

Jul.2008

Jul.2010

Oct.2012

Oct.2014

Jul.2008

Jul.2010

Oct.2012

Oct.2014

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

(yen / month / tsubo) Tokyo area Osaka area

Page 67: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 66

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

Oct

-05

Ap

r-0

6O

ct-0

6A

pr-

07

Oct

-07

Ap

r-0

8O

ct-0

8A

pr-

09

Oct

-09

Ap

r-1

0O

ct-1

0A

pr-

11

Oct

-11

Ap

r-1

2O

ct-1

2A

pr-

13

Oct

-13

Ap

r-1

4O

ct-1

4A

pr-

15

Oct

-15

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

Oct

-05

Ap

r-0

6O

ct-0

6A

pr-

07

Oct

-07

Ap

r-0

8O

ct-0

8A

pr-

09

Oct

-09

Ap

r-1

0O

ct-1

0A

pr-

11

Oct

-11

Ap

r-1

2O

ct-1

2A

pr-

13

Oct

-13

Ap

r-1

4O

ct-1

4A

pr-

15

Oct

-15

Single tenant Multi-tenant

Note: Single tenant: 2-3 floors; total floor area of around 10,000m2

Multi-tenant: 3-4 floors; total floor area of around 50,000m2

Logistics property market

Cap rates have been falling since 2012, with Tokyo hitting an all-time low.

Source: Japan Real Estate Institute “Real Estate Investor’s Survey”

Tokyo(bay)Tokyo(inland)

Chiba(inland)

Tokyo(bay)Tokyo(inland)

Chiba(inland)

Logistics real estate cap rate (expected yield)

Page 68: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in Japan

Office market

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Population movements in Japan

Page 69: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 68

Hotel market

Foreign travelers in 2015 accounted for c15% of total domestic travel expenditure

Domestic travel expenditure in 2015 was the largest in the last 6 years, driven by an increased number of foreigner travelers to Japan.

Trends in domestic travel expenditure

(trillion yen)

Sources: Compiled by NRI from Japan Tourism Agency “Ryokou・Kankou Sho-hi Doukou Chosa” and “Consumption Trend

Survey for Foreigners Visiting Japan” data

-Consumption tax increase

-:East Japan earthquake

+:depreciation of yen progress

+:「Silver Week」Start

15.4 14.8 15.0 15.4 13.9 15.8

5.1 5.0 4.4 4.84.5

4.6

1.1 0.8 1.1 1.42.0

3.521.6

20.6 20.521.6

20.4

23.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Japanese Stay Travel Japanese Day Trip Foreigners Travel

Page 70: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 69

Hotel market

The number of travelers among Japanese residents has edged sideways.

Cumulative domestic traveler numbers (Overnight Travel/Day Trip)

(Million)

Source: Compiled by NRI from Japan Tourism Agency “Ryokou ・Kankou Sho-hi Doukou Chosa”

data

Note: Cumulative domestic traveler numbers do not include foreign travelers to Japan.

Cumulative domestic traveler numbers(by trip objective)

(Million)

318 314 316 320 297 313

314 299 297 311298 292

632 613 613 631595 605

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Stay Travel Day Trip

372 360 368 383 349 365

143 145 138 141134 130

117 108 107 107112 109

632 613 613 631595 605

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Sightseeing/Recreations Homecoming/Friend Visit

Business Trip

Page 71: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 70

Hotel market

Measured by departure country, Chinese visitors will account for about 53% of the total in 2030.

Conversely, the number of travelers to Japan increased rapidly and reached about 20 million, thanks to the weak yen and relaxed visa criteria.NRI projects the number of travelers to Japan rising about 50 million in 2030

No. of foreigner travelers to Japan(by departure country)

Sources: Compiled by NRI from (Actual numbers) JNTO

(Forecast numbers) UNWTO and UN data

Note: Chinese economy doesn't fall into a panic and remains stable. As premise, Asian tourists

choosing Japan as a travel destination rises slightly from the current level owing to relaxed visa

standards and LCC expansion.

No. of foreigner travelers to Japan by departure country (2015)

Source: Compiled by NRI from JNTO data

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17'18'19'20 '25 '30

China Others

(Million)

←Actual Forecast→

China

53.0%

※ Assumes the base scenario below

China, 499,

25%

Korea, 400,

20%

Taiwan, 368,

19%

Hong Kong,

152, 8%

Thailand,

80, 4%

U.S., 103,

5%Others, 371,

19%

1,974 Ten thousand

(Ten thousand visitors)

Four neighboring

countries in Asia

account for about 72%.

Page 72: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 71

417 413 432 429 438

18 2633 45

66417439

466 474504

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Domestic Customer Foreign Customer

Hotel market

Viewed by facility type, the rise in foreign travelers is impacting growth in business hotels.

Foreigner visitors accounted for 13% of all stays in 2015.This ratio continues to rise in tandem with the increase in overseas visitors

Domestic accommodation(Domestic/Foreign)

(Million)

Source: Compiled by NRI from Japan Tourism Agency “Syukuhaku Ryokou Toukei” data

Domestic stays (by accommodation type)

(Million)

※Business Hotel:Budget Hotel

106 106 106 103 106

61 65 69 68 72

160 170 184 194 211

62 67 73 7580

8 910 9

26417439

466 474504

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Japanese-Style Hotel Resort Hotel

Business Hotel City Hotel

Lodging House Company/Group Loidging

Page 73: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 72

Hotel market

The total number of the accommodation facilities remains stable.By type, however, the proportion of hotels continues to rise

Trend in number of guest rooms

Source: Compiled by NRI from MHLW “Report of Health Administration and Services” data

(Thousand rooms)

756 781 798 803 814 815 827 835

823 808 792 764 761 741 735 710

1,579 1,588 1,590 1,568 1,576 1,556 1,562 1,545

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Japanese-Style Hotel Hotel

(Fiscal year)

Page 74: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 73

Hotel market

Floor space per building is 1.25 times higher than 2011, as large buildings are being built

The number of accommodation facilities and area of floor space both rose owing to a stable economic environment and growing demand for accommodations

Accommodation facilities※

No of buildings and floor space

Source: Compiled by NRI from MLIT “Statistics on Construction Undertaken” data

Accommodation facilities ※ Floor space per building

※Accommodations assume a hotel.

Surveyed buildings are those built with steel framed reinforced concrete, ferroconcrete and

steel frame

(Buildings) (thousand ㎡)

327 345419 412

547

393448

615675

848

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Number of Ridge(Left Axis) Floor Space(Right Axis)

(㎡)

1,2021,298

1,467

1,6391,550

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Page 75: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 74

Hotel market

c10,000 rooms are expected to open in Tokyo over the next 3 years

Operator Area Opening yearNumber of

rooms

APA Group Shinjuku 2017 129

Asakusa 2017 464

2017 126

Akasaka 2018 500

Akihabara 2017 117

Shintomicho 2017 140

Higashi-Shinjuku 2020 819

NihonbashiBakurocho

2018 153

Iidabashi 2017 98

Ryougoku 2019 1,015

Roppongi 2019 875

Nishi-Shinjuku 2017 710

Keio Dentetsu Yaesu 2017 170

Keikyu EX Inn Haneda 2017 313

Keio Presso Inn Kyobashi 2017 170

Hamamatsucho 2017 約330

Route-Inn Hotels Kamata 2017 148

Mori Trust Toranomon 2019 約200

Operator Area Opening yearNumber of

rooms

Mitsui Fudosan Ginza 2017 107

Hulic Ginza 2018 約160

Hankyu-HanshinHotels Roppongi 2017 400

ES-CON JAPAN Nihonbashi 2017 102

2017 63

Texas Ginza 2018 105

Sankei Building Kyobashi 2017 205

Abest Corporation Kyobashi 2017 45

Asahi Shimbun Company

Ginza 2018 164

JR Kyushu RailwayCompany

Shinbashi 2019 267

Sotetsu Fresa Inn Ginza 2017 128

Roppongi 2017 205

Kinshicho 2017 292

Tokyu Hotels Shibuya 2017 200

Hotel Keihan Tsukiji 2018 300

Mitsui Fudosan Toyosu 2019 200

Main new hotel development projects in Tokyo※

Note: A hotel development project is chosen as the area where weekly HOTERES investigated.

Source: Compiled by NRI from Ohta Publications Co., Ltd. ”Weekly HOTERES” data

Page 76: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 75

Hotel market

Over 4,000 rooms are expected to open in Osaka as well over the next 3 years

Operator Area Opening year Number of rooms

Candeo Hotels Shinsaibashi 2017 390

Osaka 2017 496

West Japan Railway

Company VIA InnTennoji 2017 172

Umeda 2017 217

Hotel Keihan Kitahama 2017 210

Route-Inn Hotels Izumi 2017 200

Keikyu EX Inn Haneda 2017 313

Route-Inn Japan Takaishi 2017 172

Bellco Nanba 2019 150

Vessel Hotel Development Osaka 2017 133

ES-CON JAPAN Osaka 2017 96

Sotetsu Inn Osaka 2018 244

APA Group Osaka 2019 917

Nanba 2017 380

Asahi Shimbun CompanyOsaka 2017 164

Main new hotel development projects planned in Osaka prefecture※

Note: A hotel development project is chosen as the area where weekly HOTERES investigated.

Source: Compiled by NRI from Ohta Publications Co., Ltd. ”Weekly HOTERES” data

Page 77: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 76

Hotel market

Occupancy rates at hotels in Osaka and Tokyo have risen to c80% are approaching full capacity.

Guest room occupancy rates vary widely by prefecture

Source: Compiled by NRI from Japan Tourism Agency “Syukuhaku Ryokou Toukei” data

Average occupancy rate by prefecture

(%)

85 83

71 71 71 68 67 67 67 65 65 62 61 60 60 59 59 56 56 55 55 55 55 54 54 54 53 53 53 52 52 51 51 50 50 50 50 48 48 48 48 47 46 45 43 42 35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Osa

ka

Toky

o

Chib

a

Kyo

to

Aic

hi

Fuku

oka

Ka

na

ga

wa

Sa

ita

ma

Oki

naw

a

Ish

ika

wa

Hir

osh

ima

Hok

kai-

do

Miy

ag

i

Hyo

go

Yam

agu

chi

Nag

asak

i

Sh

iga

Shim

ane

Oka

yam

a

Ku

ma

mo

to

Toya

ma

Saga

Shiz

uoka

Kaga

wa

Ehim

e

Oit

a

Iwa

te

Fuku

shim

a

Miy

azak

i

Kago

shim

a

Ibar

aki

Gif

u

Tott

ori

Toku

shim

a

Gu

nm

a

Mie

Ao

mo

ri

Toch

igi

Wa

kaya

ma

Ya

ma

na

shi

Ko

chi

Ya

ma

ga

ta

Aki

ta

Nar

a

Fu

kui

Nig

ata

Nag

ano

Page 78: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 77

Hotel market

Looking at occupancy rates by type of accommodation in the top 5 prefectures, hotels are above 70%. However, Japanese-style inns were under 50% even in top 5 prefectures.

Average occupancy rate in top 5 prefectures (by type of accommodation)

Source: Compiled by NRI from Japan Tourism Agency “Syukuhaku Ryokou Toukei” data

(%)

49 53

83 86

41

8372

81

2536

76 80

33

58

7570

4053

7077

0102030405060708090

100

Jap

an

ese

-Sty

le H

ote

l

Res

ort H

otel

Bus

ines

s H

otel

City

Hot

el

Japa

nese

-Sty

le H

otel

Res

ort H

otel

Bus

ines

s H

otel

City

Hot

el

Japa

nese

-Sty

le H

otel

Res

ort H

otel

Bus

ines

s H

otel

City

Hot

el

Japa

nese

-Sty

le H

otel

Res

ort H

otel

Bu

sin

ess

Ho

tel

Cit

y H

ote

l

Jap

an

ese

-Sty

le H

ote

l

Res

ort H

otel

Bu

sin

ess

Ho

tel

Cit

y H

ote

l

Osaka Tokyo Chiba Kyoto Aichi

Page 79: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 78

Hotel market

Hotel REIT earnings are expanding due to high occupancy rates

Rents at hotel REITs

Source: Compiled by NRI from ARES “J-REIT Property Database” data.

Note: 1tsubo=About 3.3㎡

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1月 4月 7月

10月 1月 4月 7月

10月 1月 4月 7月

10月 1月 4月 7月

10月 1月 4月 7月

10月 1月 4月 7月

10月

10年 11年 12年 13年 14年 15年

Month

ly rent

sta

ndar

d

Unit: y

en/t

subo

Tokyo metroporitan area All over the country

23 wards of Tokyo

Nationwide

Page 80: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Overview of real estate investment market in japan

Office market

Residential market

Retail property market

Hotel market

Logistics property market

Real estate investment products

Population movements in Japan

Page 81: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 80

14.8 14.8

1.4

15.1

0.4

0

4

8

12

16

20

Listed REIT Private Fund Private REIT RMBS CMBS

(¥tn)

Unlisted open-ended private REITs were offered in November 2010, and the size of the private REITs market is

growing rapidly.

Real estate investment instruments

An overall perspective of the Japanese real estate market

Equity type Debt type

Listed Unlisted

Close-ended Open-ended

Residential

mortgage

Commercial

mortgage

Overview of real estate investment instruments in Japan and AUM

Note: Listed REIT figure is updated as of end of Jul 2016, private fund and private REIT figure is updated as of end of Dec 2015, RMBS/CMBS figure is updated as of end

of Mar 2016.

Sources: Compiled by NRI from Association for Real Estate Securitization, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute Co., Ltd., and the Japan Securities Dealers Association data

Page 82: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2001/9 2002/9 2003/9 2004/9 2005/9 2006/9 2007/9 2008/9 2009/9 2010/9 2011/9 2012/9 2013/9 2014/9 2015/9

(No. of J-REITs)(¥bn)

Market Capitalization No. of J-REITs

J-REITs began trading on the stock market in September 2001 with two companies and a market capitalization of

250 billion yen.

As of end-July 2016, there were 55 J-REITs traded worth approximately 12 trillion yen.

Real estate investment products

Launched in September 2001, J-REIT market capitalization has reached approximately 12 trillion yen.

J-REIT market cap and number of J-REITs

Source: Bloomberg

Page 83: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 82

Office46.6%

Residential16.3%

Retail19.2%

Hotel4.7%

Logistics11.5%

Others1.8%

5 Central Wards of

Tokyo36.0%

23 Wards of Tokyo17.6%

Kanto Area20.4%

Chubu Area4.7%

Kinki Area13.1%

Other Areas8.2%

Real estate investment products

c75% of real estate owned by J-REITs is in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

In recent years, J-REITs have become more diversified in type of property owned, and a healthcare REIT was

launched in November 2014.

c75% of J-REIT assets are located in the Tokyo metropolitan area and c50% are

portfolios of office properties.

Greater Tokyo area

74.0%

Approx.14.8

trillion yen

Approx.14.8

trillion yen

Asset mix of J-REITs by area and asset class

Source: Compiled by NRI from ARES data

Note: As of the end of July 2016

Page 84: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 83

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2003/3 2004/2 2005/1 2005/12 2006/11 2007/10 2008/9 2009/8 2010/7 2011/6 2012/5 2013/4 2014/3 2015/2 2016/1

TSE REIT Index TOPIX TOPIX Real Estate Sector Index

The TSE REIT index dropped sharply from its peak in May 2007, but has recovered rapidly from late 2012.

Real estate investment products

The TSE REIT index surged in late 2012 and remain firm.

TSE REIT Index, TOPIX, and the TOPIX Real Estate Sector Index

Source: Compiled by NRI from

Bloomberg data

Page 85: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 84

Yield spreads are currently around just above 3%

Real estate investment products

J-REIT dividend yields rapidly increased to around 8%, but are currently down to around 3%.

J-REIT dividend yield and JGB 10-year yield

Sources: Compiled by NRI from Bloomberg and TSE data

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1 2010/1 2011/1 2012/1 2013/1 2014/1 2015/1 2016/1

Spread J-REITs Dividend Yield JGB 10-Year-Yield

Page 86: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

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According to the index based on actual performance of core funds invested in domestic real estate, the performance

of real estate investments in Japan recovered to positive territory in terms of capital return and has been firm since.

Real estate investment products

Capital return is firm.

ARES Japan Property Index (AJPI) and ARES Japan Fund Index (AJFI)

Sources: Compiled by NRI from ARES “ARES Japan Property Index” and “ARES Japan Fund Index” data.

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002/12 2004/10 2006/8 2008/6 2010/4 2012/2 2013/12 2015/10

AJPI: Income Return

AJFI: Income Return

AJPI: Capital Return

AJFI: Capital Return

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002/12 2004/10 2006/8 2008/6 2010/4 2012/2 2013/12 2015/10

AJPI: Total Return

AJFI: Total Return

Page 87: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 86

9,702

14,81516,935

32,31130,260

20,955

16,276 16,352

12,143

7,53711,113

8,491 8,34111,132

15,064

10,742 11,148 9,741 10,7609,194 8,235

10,15113,275 13,472

3,511

1,994

6,937

4,370 7,418

7,679

8,75510,338

2,038

1,701

980

341 138

413

563

1,288 140153

5271

0

274

287 152

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

20041stHalf

20042ndHalf

20051stHalf

20052ndHalf

20061stHalf

20062ndHalf

20071stHalf

20072ndHalf

20081stHalf

20082ndHalf

20091stHalf

20092ndHalf

20101stHalf

20102ndHalf

20111stHalf

20112ndHalf

20121stHalf

20122ndHalf

20131stHalf

20132ndHalf

20141stHalf

20142ndHalf

20151stHalf

20152ndHalf

(¥100m)

RMBS CMBS CDO Lease Consumer Loan Shopping Credit Accounts receivable/Commercial Bills Others

Real estate investment products

Most recently, about 70% of residential mortgage-backed securities were originated by the Japan Housing Finance

Agency.

CMBS issuance has decreased drastically since 2008, and at present only RMBS

are issued on a ongoing basis.

Asset backed securities breakdown by type of backing and RMBS breakdown by originator

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2004FY 1H2004FY 2H2005FY 1H2005FY 2H2006FY 1H2006FY 2H2007FY 1H2007FY 2H2008FY 1H2008FY 2H2009FY 1H2009FY 2H2010FY 1H2010FY 2H2011FY 1H2011FY 2H2012FY 1H2012FY 2H2013FY 1H2013FY 2H2014FY 1H2014FY 2H2015FY 1H2015FY 2H

Housing Finance Agency Banks/Trust Banks Regional Banks Non-bank Others

Source: Compiled by NRI from Japan Securities Dealers Association data

Page 88: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI

Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 87

Authors

Contact:

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.

Consulting Division

[email protected]

亀井 敬太Keita KAMEI

Consultant

Section in Charge

Office market, Retail property market,

Real estate investment products

Expertise

Real estate, residential loan and

infrastructure business strategy and

research.

村上 慧悟Keigo MURAKAMI

Consultant

Section in Charge

Hotel market

Expertise

Residential, real estate and inbound

business strategy and research.

荒木 康行Yasuyuki ARAKI

Consultant

Section in Charge

Macro fundamentals of Japan

Expertise

Real estate, urban infrastructure

business strategy and research.

Especially, International market

research, business planning and entry

support.

大道 亮Akira DAIDO

Consultant

Section in Charge

Overview of real estate investment

market in Japan, Residential market,

Logistics Property market

Expertise

Residential, real estate and energy

business strategy and research.

沼田 悠佑Yusuke NUMATA

Consultant

Section in Charge

Population movements in Japan

Expertise

Real estate and energy business

strategy and research. In addition,

industrial policy planning and

monitoring.

Page 89: The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2016 - NRI