The Infrastructure of Social Sciences:CNSTAT and CPOP and the Building of

the Federal Statistical System

Margo AndersonDistinguished

Professor, History & Urban Studies

University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee

margo@uwm.edu

Some Very Old History….

• 1787 Federal Constitution• 1790 First Federal Census• 1863 National Academy• 1878 Statistical Abstract of the U.S.

inaugurated• 1890 Machine Tabulation of the Census• 1902 Permanent Census Bureau• 1916 National Research Council

3

Building the American State and its Institutions

4

The Federal Statistical System:Survey Data: The Census

• Article 1, Section 2, of the U.S. Constitution:

"Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers….The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

5

The Federal Statistical System: Administrative Data

• Article 1, Section 9: • “a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts

and Expenditures of all public Money shall be published from time to time.”

• Article 2, Section 3: • The President “shall from time to time give to the

Congress Information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.”

The “Infrastructure” of the Social Sciences, 1790 Census Version

7

Francis Edmonds, Taking the Census, 1853

8

“The Great Tribulation,” The Saturday Evening Post,

1860

1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Population Growth, 1790-2000

UK FR

US

Year

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

ns)

10

Census Publications

1890 Census Machine Tabulation

1900 Census Punch Card and IBM 80 Column Punch Card

Administrative Statistics Reporting

in the Treasury

Department

14

A Decentralized System That Defied Efforts at Coordination

15

Learning to Live with Decentralization

• 1940: Position of Chief Statistician created in the consolidation of the Bureau of the Budget (now OMB)

• 1942: Federal Reports Act mandated “forms clearance.”

Social Security Technology.

1930s

UNIVAC, 1950

Proposed Population Registration Form, 1942

Graphic Summary of National Registration System, 1943

Trying Again in the 1960s

• Wallis Commission Recommends the Establishment of the Committee on National Statistics

• CNSTAT created, 1972

Population Controversies

• 1960s: The Population Bomb; Zero Population Growth; Fertility Control; IQ Controversies

• A Hiatus…..

• Committee on Population established, 1983

CNSTAT, Selected Studies on Census Taking, Since the 1990s

Committee on National Statistics, Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency, 5th ed.

Committee on Population, Studies on Biodemography, Since the 1990s

Preserving and Recovering History

Ending with a Question…

Is the Past Prologue?

Where have we been? Where are we going?