%

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 44, 69-86 (1993)

The Information Technology RevolutionComputer Hardware, Software, and Servicesinto the 21st Century

WILLIAM E. HALAL

ABSTRACT

A literature

scan,

Delphi survey,and interviews are used to forecast future developments in informationtechnology. Results show thathighly advanced

computer

hardware should become commonly available aboutthe year

2000,

including a powerful new class of superchips, portable

computers,

parallel processors, publicinformation

networks,

and possibly optical

computers.

Par more sophisticated software should be widely usedat roughly the same

time,

such as

expert

systems, automatically generated programming, personal

assistants,

and programs that enable

computers

to talkand to learn. The useof information services like telecommuting,electronic

education,

teleconferencing,and electronic shopping is also likely, but will probably lag technicaladvances by several years because sensitive changes in social behavior are involved. All these developments

suggesl that the information technology revolution should mature duringthe decade of

2000-2010,

dramatically

alteringthe social order around the globe.

Assessing the

Information

Technology Revolution:

Where,When,

and

What?

If we could look back on this period

of

history in a

few

decades when the

information

technology (IT)revolution has

matured,

we would probablybe struck by the sharpcon-trast between the world we

left

behind and the world we have created. Prior to the historicwatershed that occurred about 1960 to mark the beginning

of

a postindustrial society,the typical American worked in a factory at some menial job.The verythought

of

using

a computer was so alien to most people that a mythical story circulates in which IBM'smarketing department estimated the world demand

for

computers would total six ma-chines eventually.

About 100million computerswere being used around the world in

1991,

and thatnumber seems likelyto reach onebillion computers within a

fewyears

as the ITrevolutioncontinues to roll on inexorably. The growth

of

this remarkable new technology is soprecise that its trend line

offers

a model

for

technology

forecasters.

Five generations

of

computersystems have been developedthus

far

based on(a) vacuum tubes, (b)

transistors,

(c) silicon chips, (d) very large scale integrated circuits (VLSIC), and now (c) parallel

WILLIAM E. HALAL is a professor in (he Department of ManagementScienceat lhe School of Businessand Public Management, George WashingtonUniversity, where he studies emerging technologies and strategic-change. Information reported in thispaper was adapted from research he has been conducting for InternationalData Corporation.

Address reprint

requests

toProf. William L. Halal, Depart merit ofManagement

Science,

George WashingtonUniversity, Washington, DC 20052.

0040-1625/93/$6.00

199.1 Elscvier Science Publishing

Co.,

I

70 W.E. HALAL THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION 71

processing. Each of these individual IT revolutions has increased computational powerby about a

factor of

ten

everyfive

to seven years, producing a total gain

for

the entireITrevolution

of

roughly

100,000

over the past three decades [I].And there is noend in sight to this exponentialgrowth. As we shall see, great strides

forward

seem likelyduringthe nextdecadeor two that should multiplycomputingpowermanyfold once again. To summarize the more dramatic possibilities, portablecomputersand jsmart appliances should create an interactive environment

of

"übiquitous comput-ing." Today's parallel processors

may

be more clever than ordinary computers, but ad-vanced versions using as many as one million chips are expected and should increasecomputing power about 1000times.

Over

the long term, opticalcomputers that use lightwaves toboost computational speeds another 1000 times maybe developed. John Sculley,chairman

of

Apple Computer, summed up the

future

prospects: "We have been racingto get to the starting line. The really interesting

stuff

begins in the 19905."1With the possibility

of

such extraordinaryadvances looming

ahead,forecasters

are

left

wonderingabout the

futureof

IT. Where is the ITrevolution heading? When will itget

there?

What will be its social impact?Above all,what does (his profoundtechnologicalrevolution really mean?

Objectives

of

This StudyThis paper reports a study that was designed toanswer such questions by forecastingthe

future

development

of

IT.Three sources

of information

were used: the literature onemerging

information

technologies(EITs) was scanned

for

prominent

trends;

a Delphi

forecast

was conducted toestimate

future

developments in IT; and authorities were inter-viewed

for

their opinions [2|.The literature scan consisted

of

a review of newspapers, journals,and books con-ducted over the past

few

years. Items

of

interest indicatingpotential technical break-throughs, their

characteristics,

development

timetables,

social impacts, and other such

information

were

collected,

and the resulting trends were clustered into

groups.

Thisprocess producedthree distinct groups

of

EITs -computer

hardware,

computersoftware,and

information

systems- which are described more fully later. 2

The Delphi

forecast

was obtained

from

a panel

of

1 1 authorities on

future

advancesintechnology

from

academe, research

laboratories,

and practicing technologists. These"experts" completed a questionnaire that described each group

of

EITs and asked

for

estimates

of

the year in which particular technologies would be

introduced,

the likelihoodthat this would occur, the potential market

demand,

and the leadingnation in ea.ch

field.

Results were analyzed toobtain mean

estimates,

and written commentswere also collected

from

the panel [6].The interviews were held with two

futurists

who specialize in

IT,

two professors

ofIT,

and IT

managersfrom

both the privateand public sectors. These interviews

focused

on confirming or modifying the trends and estimates

identified

above and on exploringcritical issues raised by

future

IT developments.The followingsections present the resultingdata in the

formof

anarrativesummariz-ing what was learned

from

the literature scan and

interviews,

tables containing

forecastsfrom

the Delphi panel,and an analysis

of

these data. Finally, theresults are summarizedin aprofile outlining howthe ITrevolution should

unfold

as individual technologies areintroduced over the next decadeor two and suggesting the likely impact on society.

1 Suillcyis quoted from a special issue of Hminess Week on personal

computers

(12 August 1991).

'

Other surveys o! emerging technologies producesimilar categories for the information field [3-s|.

It should be noted that this study could not possiblyinclude all the myriadtechnicaldevelopments that might occur, nor was this the intention.

Rather,

the study had astrategic

focus

in that it concentrated on those EITs showing the greatest potential forhavinglargeeconomic and social impacts. Weshould also caution that the Delphimethodhas its limitations because even a panel

of

experts canbe

wrong.

The Delphi techniqueremains

among

the most commonly used forecasting methodologies,

however,

becauseit

offers

an

effective

means

for

answeringthe type

of

questionsposedbythis study, whichinvolvegreat uncertainty and little availability

of

hard data. The

accuracyof

previousstudies using the Delphi method have been thoroughlyreported in the literature.3

All

forecasts

are inaccurate to somedegree,but byusingavariety

of different

methodsthat complementone another and by focusing attention on the most crucial

EITs,

wethink this study

offers

areasonable

forecastof

how the ITrevolution should

unfold

intothe 21st century.

Confidence

in the results is

further

enhanced because the three sources

of information

used -the literature scan, the Delphi

forecast,

and the interviews -agreeclosely on most points.

Results indicate that the world is heading toward a major transition during theyears 2000-2010 when IT should blossom to dominate modern societies. Two or threegenerations

of

more powerful,

flexible

machines should be developed, possibly operatingwith light waves and almost certainly using large numbers

of

parallel processors. Thisvast new computingpower should be widely used to operate a variety

of

sophisticated

software

and peripheralequipmenton

information

networks spanningthe globe.

Several

additional years may be required

before

this new

form of

"global intelligence"altersentrenched patterns

of

social

behavior,

but that should

follow

as well to comprise acrucial

shift

in the underlyingstructure

of

modern societies. A knowledge-based socialorder is evolving in which

homes,offices,

and schools become interwoven into an organicweb

of

communication services offering unusual opportunities

for

accelerating

scientificprogress,

economic development,

education,

and other major social changes.

Computer HardwareThe power

of

computersresidesbasically in their ability to storeand process

informa-tion,

and today vast leaps are under way in both

of

these

fundamental

capabilities.Chip capacity now includes severalmillion components per chip and is expected to

reach the astonishing level

of

one billion in a

few

years as circuits become as thin as a

few

atoms. John Armstrong,vice president

of Science

and Technologyat

IBM,

said "It'sthe engine driving the computer industry" [I].

A variety

of

new technologies are also beingdeveloped to increase processing speedand storage capacity.

Gallium

arsenide chips should soon be commercially

available;

they will allow speeds

five

to six times

faster

than silicon chips [10]. The advantages

of

the old vacuum tube may be replicatedat the quantum level by chips containing billions

of

devicesoperatingin vacuumthat

offer

noresistance to the

flowof

electrons [11]. Thereis even some progress in learninghow tostore

information

in the chemical bonds betweenatoms

of

organic matter -"biochips" that pack the data storage power

of

DNA [12].

One

researcher noted the increasinggains

from

these smaller designs: "As this technologygets smaller and

smaller,

it gets better and better" [ll].4

1 Awell-known critiqueof the Delphimethod isfound inSackman [7]. More recent appraisals are providedby Rowe etal. [8] and Woudenberg (9).

4 F

r

oranother view of the same point, see Gilder (I3j.

W.E. HALAL THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION

73

72

These more powerful chips are also being used in parallel processing architectures,one

of

lhe most important breakthroughs in IT that

offers

a fundamentally

different

approach to the use

of

computers. Rather thanrely on the brute number-crunching

forceof

the old hierarchical architectures that used a singlelarge processor, parallel processors

and neural networks (a special analog type

of

parallel processor) use many processorsoperatingin a fluid, parallel networking mode that simulates the network

of

cells formingthe humanbrain. I.ike the brain, these architectures organize

information

into patterns,

assign

differentfunctions

to

different

parts

of

the network, reach conclusions usingheuris-tic rather than algorithmic methods, produce approximate solutions quickly, and canreorganize to adjust for component

failures

[14].Because parallel processing represents a breakthrough, advances are occurring at

an unusuallyrapid pace. In 1988 Nippon Electric announced the development of a four-

processor PC selling

for

about $5000 that will be able Io read lexi and voice inputs, useexpert svsiems tosolve problems, and learn

from

experience [15|. Hewlett-Packard shouldbe releasing a

four-

processor computeral about lhe time oi' this writing, which is to be

followed

soon by a 16 processor model. Some corporations are already using such maclinics because, as a scientist al ARCO

put

il, "Parallel computing is cheap and gettingcheaper" [16|. Oilier systems usingthousands

o\'

processors are also being developed, so

ii seems almost certain I hat parallel processing will be widely used within a decade orso. One foi ecaster predictedin 1987, "Within tenyears neural networks will be as common

as spreadsheetand word processing,"and another claimed,"The iniernaiional consensusamong computer engineers is (hat parallel processing will be lhe technology of choicefor lhe next generation

of

supercomputers" [17, IS).

Optical disks, similar to the compact disks now used to record

music,

should offer

continued huge increases in dala base capacity, and erasable memory read-write disksshould enable changing

files.

Today's optical disks can stoic about 1000 megabytes ol

data,

which is more than

sufficient

Io handle the contentsof a mullivolume encyclopedia,

fhcie arc presently 1.1000 "digilal imaging"systems in use that stoic documents on such

disks, and the number is increasing rapidly 1 19]. If present trends continue, small librariescould be accessed elecironically in a decade or so with the equivalent of a few ordinary

compact disks.Tins expanding capacity for storing and processing

information

is being conneck'd

logciher into integrated information networks thai should greatlyextend the communicaiuw\-

tialfic

(lowingmda\ on space satellites. Just around lhe corner lies a vast new worldof almost limitless

information

being

formed

by cellular radio,

fiber

optic cables, and

oplic telecommunications nowbeginning to circle the globe. One o\' the central develop-mentsour uu erviewees agreed ou was that ccllulai technologyshould soon make it possibleior eaeli individual lo have a persona! phone

number,

stored in a smart card or a poriablePC. that will allow anybody to locale and communicate with anybodyelse almost any

whcie m the modern world, ending ioday's countless rounds

of

telephone lag.

fiber

optic cables will oiler analternative to cellular radio for heavily used communi-cation channels. The first optica! cable was laid across the Atlantic in 1990, permitting40000 simultaneous phone conversations between Americans and Europeans, an order

o\'

magnitude greater than the capacity of metal cables. Phone companies are rapidlyinstalling

fiber

optic systems that are expected to reach the "curbs" of American homesand

offices

in the 19905, allowing most people access to a vast range

of information

set

vices,

as discussed later. Japan is committed to having the entire nation wired withoptic cables by 2010.

Optical telecommunications systems are under development now and should enterthe market in a

few

years. John Mayo, senior vice presidentat

AT&T

Bell

Eabs,claimed,

"Just as microelectronics propelled telecommunications

for

the past 20 years, photonicswill spur the telecommunications revolution

of

the 19905" [20].These various types

of

IT networks should be integrated into some type

of

globalsystem. Open-systemstandards like the integrated services digitalnetwork (ISDN) shouldsoon make it possible to connect any type

of

hardware and

software

together, as wellas enabling multimedia applications that link togetherdata,

voice,video,

text, and anyother type

of information

into one seamless whole. Derek

Laabaert,

an IT authority,sees apivotal change ahead: "In the 19905, we will view computersas knowledgesourcesrather than knowledge processors . . . networkingwill [allow]people to communicatevirtuallyanything" [21].

All this advanced hardware should come together in a

different

type of portablecomputing that will alter our concept

of information.

Today'sstationary PCs are likelyto remain in use

for

intensive tasks like

scientific

work and technical writing,but authorities

agree

that most peopleshould

find

small portablemachines like "laptops"and "palmtops"moreconvenient

for

simpler,everyday uses. These are emerging nowasmore user-friendlyconsumerelectronic devices, almost like a smart version

of

a TV remote control, connectedto

information

networks using cellular technology.Data, writlen messages, newspapers,telephone calls, TV shows, movies, video

teleconferences,

and an almost limitless amountof other

information

could then be displayed in multipleimages projected on

flat

wallmonitors. In

addition,

cheap, small computer chips are being embedded in cars, phones,refrigerators, TVs, and almost any other common item to enable intelligent control

of

surrounding devices [22].The net

effect

is that using IT will no longer be somethingone does silling at a deskprimarily,but an integral part of

life

performed as one walks around a house,

office,

oranywhere else.

Life

will then take place in a living landscape

of

interacting, intelligentmachines thai help us through our daily chores. Mark Weiser, head

of

the Compurter

Sciencefab

at XeroxPARC, called ii "übiquitous computing,"while David Nagel, head

of

Apple's Advanced Technology Croup, thinks this will be "a real turning point in theway we

live,

work, and play" |2.1].( onsideringthe above developmentsunder wayin optica! disks, optical telecommuni-

cations,

fiber

optic cables, lasers used in everyday devices like primers, and other suchapplications

of

opticalscience, il is not surprisingthat some researchers think lhe ultimateconclusion of IT will be the optical computer-a machine operating with light wavesihat achieves unprecedenled compuling power. Prototypes

of

photonic

switches,

the basicelement of an optica! computer, have been under development

for

two decades, andBell I abs claims lo have a working model.

Charles

Kao, an executive scientist al ITlaboratories, called optical computing"the next generalion I ethnology" j24j.

While others in the

scientific

communityare skeptical that optical computingcanbe developed in less than a generation, if at all, il should be remembered that all great

advances met such doubts; the notorious opinionsof most experts were equallyinsistentthai manned flight was impossible. lhe Japanese can be wrong, of course, but 13 largeJapanese electronic companies teamed up with Japan's Ministry

of

Iniernaiional Tradeand Industry(MI II) recently in a joint

R&D

program lo develop optical computers. AMill

official

said, "Opticalcomputing is one

of

the most important technologiesin thenear

future."

A study by

frost &

Sullivan, the market research firm, concluded that thedemand

for

optical devices should reach $1 billion by the year 2000 |25],

74 THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION 75W.E. HALAI

Thus, while there is some doubt over the introduction

of

these EITs, especially themore exotic breakthroughs like optical computing, knowledgeableopinions

from

theliterature,interviews, and the Delphipanel

confirm

that twoor more advancedgenerations

of

more powerful,

flexible

computer hardwareshould be developed duringthe next decadeor so as the long-term trend toward increasing computer capabilitiescontinues.

The "year

of

occurrence" estimates the time when aparticularpoint

of

devel-opment, or

"milestone,"defined

in the accompanying statement should occur.These statements may vary in the way each milestone is

defined,

depending onthe type

of

event that is deemed most significant for anyparticular EIT. In mostcases, the study

focused

onthe year when the EIT would "dominate" the market,be used by "most" people, or other such critical points defining when an EIT hasbeen introduced successfully,but in other cases a

different

milestone seemed mostappropriate;

for

example, it seems more sensible when forecasting the introduc-tion

of

optical

computers

to estimate when they would "enter" the market.

Computer

Software

The development of sophisticated

software

has become so important that many

contend it nowexceeds hardware in significance. A research teamwritingin the HarvardBusiness Review went so far as to claim that the

future

lies with "computerless computer

companies" like

Microsoft

which focus on designingpowerful software systems like Win-dows, because that is where the greatest payoff

lies;

Windows has set a new standardthat dominates computer use, thereby making

Microsoft

the most

influential,

profitablecorporation in the IT industry [26] .

"Probability"was

defined

as the likelihood that this milestone would

occur,

this is a composite estimate because il includes the likelihood thai the EIT wouldbe

found

technically

feasible,

economically profitable, socially acceptable, andotherwise overcome any barriers to its

successful

introduction.One of the greatest obstacles hindering the

field

is (he urgent need to automatethe production

of

routine

software.

In a

few

years the present mode

of

creating large

information

systems -buildingthe entire system

from

scratch using tens

of

thousandsof

programmers

working over many years al a cost that usually runs into the tens

of

millions- mayseem hopelessly

archaic,

rather like the quaint way we regard the building

of

the pyramids or the dothie cathedrals.

"US

market" is an esiimale of the potential size of the economic demandtor this KIT in the United Slates, and "leading nation" obviously

refers

to thenaiion thai is expected to lead in (he introduction of an 111.

I»<»\ I Interpreting the Delphi forecast data

Several

approaches are beingdeveloped to speed up programming,the most promis-ingbeingcomputer-aided

software

engineering(CASE) and object-oriented programming(OOP). If such met hods can realizethe potential manyanticipate, soon(he systemdesignermaysimply stipulatethe logic desired in a

software

application; the actual construction

of

the system would be generatedautomaticallyas intelligentcomputers retrieve standardizedpackages o\' softwareand integratethem into a working whole.Of course, original designswill alwaysrequire human creativity, and the special touch

of

a human

programmer

will

be needed toapplyI hese automated systems

effect

ively. But most routine parts

of software

that lend themselves to standardization should go the way

of

the horse and buggy.The

software

automation

field

now serves a market

of

$500 million per year and is expectedto reach

%2

billion in 1992 |27].

Estimates

from

the Delphi pane! shown in

fable

I provide more specific guidanceas io when these developments are likely to take place, lhe likelihood that they will besuccessfully introduced, (he magnitude ol the resulting economic impact, and the nationthat should lead in (his

field

(See Box 1

for

a

brief

explanationo\' the tallies.)As shown in

fable

1, data from ihe panelindicate thai the intioduction of powerfulsmall computers, parallel processing, integrated public networks, and optical computersshould happen in abom ten years or so dming lhe caily 2000s. furthci, there seems to hehigh

confidence

in this estimate because lhe probabilitiesrunabout .82, and the economicnuuket should be subsiantial, totaling more than $130 billion. I he \iews of the panelwere siiinmed up this way:"it's easy to underestimate the growth possibilitiesin this area."

The more powerful hardware described above should enable

software

systems torealize some of the applications

o\' artificial

intelligence that have been promised for

decades, but they will he relatively

modest,

so the concept oi' applied intelligence isemergingas a morerealistic goal |28J.

Our

interviewees tend toagree thai present develop-ments in expert systems should reach the point in a decadeor so when almost all routine(asks could be automated, including (caching standardized subjects like math and lan-guages, employee training, the literature-searching role

of

a

reference

librarian, and thelike. Roughly 3000 expert systems are reportedly in use lo solve various routine technicalproblems and Ihe number is growing at the rale

of 50%

per year [29]. Complex tasks,such as applying

scientific

knowledge effectively, pose a more

difficult

challenge that hasvet to be resolved.

MilesioncI. Sm.-ill

computers

.ih.uil ihe M/eof

a

."!()(',; .*"■filingpad me'commonly used Inuiosipeoplciomimagcihcnncr.onalallans and uoik

.\ Parallel processing usinti thousand .^on.r

'

IolchipsconnectedinioneivNoiksaicwidely asailahlc

!. Public networks peimn anyone W S-l Voice interaction should become

far

improved so that we may easily talk to comput-ers. Apple Computer, for instance, recently unveiled Casper, a program runningon anordinary

PC

that responds accurately lo complex spoken

commands,

includingrunning

software

programs, schedulingappoint

merits,

and evenoperatinga

VCR

[30]. Automaticlanguage translation should also improve greatiy, but it may slill produce occasionalerrors in syntax.

Some

feel language translation may not be needed because English is

access io lhe libraries ol

data,

olcvuoiuc messages, video

I VBI I 1Delphi forecast of ( ompuler Hardware

Is United State-.

W.E. HALAL THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION76 77

rapidly becoming lhe accepted language

for

business, science, and other professionalusage worldwide.

The presentexperimentationwith personalized

software

used toorganizean individu-al's computer use - HyperCard, Agenda,Knowbots, etc. -

reflects

a strongneed

for

somesystem thai will help every time-pressed person use the maze

of information

systems

now available more effectively. These evolutionary developments may culminate in an

intelligent

software

package that will serve the

functionof

a "knowledge

assistant,"

"intel-lectual robot," or "slave" working on

behalfof

its "master."

Stored

in an individual's

pot

table PC and able to learn over time the uniqueway each master

works,thinks,

anddecides, the slave would develop the capability oi' handlingroutine tasks on

behalf

of

its master . This computerized alter ego is likely to be given a name

for

easy

reference

-like Sam and could even fill in at meetings, about the same way a capable assistantimiv do so now.

Simple versions seem to be emerging with (he development oi personal digital ass.s

tants(PDAs), sofiwate packages that cansearch for needed

information

throughcomplex

daia bases, perform simple analyses, answer inquiries, and do most

functions

now per

formed

by' secretaries and other" assistants, fhere is a common

belief

that PDAs coulde\cut nallv have the capability for learning so that theybecome more capablewith repeated

use. they could be customized to assume the role oi' the person whom they serve, they

should read handwriting and respond to verbal commands. Examples are the Wizard

produced b\ Sharp, and the concept oi the "knowledge navigator" which Apple was

developing a

few

years ago. Apple is now planning to introduce PDAs in 1993.I here is a general senseamong those interviewed thai today's IT is quite primitive,

so we cannot realisrieallv grasp the more intelligent systems that are likely to emerge ina decade or two. Interviewees spoke keenly about a strongly

fell

need to "enhance lhe

caliber, utility,and display o\'

informal

ion decision makers have available" and io conduct'■smart "iuicirotations usingfuzzy logic" through "intelligent

files

thai can be queried fot

audit 1 1ails" and "rich

thieadsof

data and discussions." The ability to do this is at hand,in

fact, because extensive work liasbeen doneanalyzingthe rich data contained in computet

con! eiencmgtiles. So there is an intriguingpi ospect thai aknowledge-basedsociety shouldbe able to Mud\ itself endlessly by digging through its computet archives, rather like lhe

Wav archeologiMs dig through layers o(ancient ruins |31|.Hut these temain vague possibilities until ptaciical means are developed

>°

harness

the full power of II . One authority in this study compared the IT revolution lo historicinventionslike speech, writing, and punted type. IT oilers such fundamentallydifletenl,

unusual potential that a major scientific effort is needed to learn how humanscan thinkmote clicctivclv.

ii may take mote than a decade oi so to realize these more ambitious goals, butour authorities agree that more humanlike software capabilities should become availableabout thai time to perform the advanced

functions

which many other IT forecasters

anticipate: quick solutions to tough

scientific

problems, automatic management

of

theburgeoningcapital

flows

streamingahout the global economy, personalized instructionon

well-defined

subjects, more accurate and rapid diagnosis

of

medical illness, and a

variety of other tasks needed to manage a complex world.

Sable

2 provides

forecastsfrom

Ihe Delphi pane! focusing on five salient aspects

of

these new

software

capabilities. Much as the earlier

forecasts

oi' computer hardware,

these estimates show high

confidence

that such capabilities will be available inabout ten

years, ranging from 1996 to 2004, and thai they will satisfy social needs amountingto over $100 billion collectively. In contrast to more elementary technologies thai are

TAHIK 2Delphiforecast of Computer Software

Year of Probability US market leadingoccurrence (0 1.0) (Sbillions) nationMilestone

IX United Stales

17 tinned Stales

ss,

engineering, ndiagnosis, and oilier lields

"'■ Vo'c'e aycess

computers

pcniiii

;^oo?

x-1

United Stales

automaticallyComputers thai learn: tompulei

Iheir

own

behavior

dominated by the Japanese, the panel also believes that the United

Stales

will retain thelead in this cutting edge of the 1 I revolution.The consequence should be that

far

more powerful, more flexible, and moie intelli-gent

information

systems will be used widely by

individuals,

organizations, and entiresocieties. As intelligent systems of this type become common among billions of peopleworking together around the woild, it is not 100 hard to imagine howthese developmentsshould form whatlias been called a higher iypeof "global intelligence,"as we shall see later .

Information Services

The bigquestion posed by (he I 1 revolution is whai will all this powerful lechnoloi'vbe used for?( ienerallyspeaking, v seems thai most of today's social

functions

per

formed

person-ally in

face-toface

sellings should be

transformed

into their electronic equivalents,

for

instance,

modern business, education, medicine, and even shopping lend themselves toan electronic

formal

because they involve mainly the transmission of various types of

infotmaiion.

Box 2 summarizes some key (rends that are drivingthe widespread use ofpowerful, inexpensive, mote convenient IT into wide social usage.

These trends suggest thai

information

services may become widely accepted as analternative way to conduct business and other social transactions soon, dramaticallyaltering the way we live and work. Can anyone imagine being without a

fax

machinetoday? Yet

fax

was rare jusi a lew years ago. The same wave

of"

popular use may makeother

forms

of IT derigueur soon as aci ilical mass

of

users is reached. ( omputer journalsclaim

information

services arc ready to lake off: "Videoconferencing is at the thresholdof a dramatic expansion"; "Business conditions are ripe for |change] . . . telecommut-ing could hit its peak in the

mid-1990s";

"lhe videoconferencing market is set to soar"I3H-40].

Other

possible

informal

ion services now being developed cover I lie cmire span ofhuman activity:electronic banking,trading securities, project management,poliiical poll-ing, home movies and entertainment, corporate "1 V networks, electronic house calls by

'" 19% ,<;sdevelopedfor personalizedleaching, managing medical

care,

controlof

corporate

operations,e(c.

''^li^l*-^ arc commonly used I9VX XX

79

78 W.E. HALAI THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION

Decreasing ITcosts: ITequipment now costs roughly one-tenth that

of

compara-ble equipment in the early 1980swhich provideda

fractionof

today's capabilities,and costs are still dropping. The most obvious exampleis the enormous improve-ment in

PCs.

A teleconferencingsystem I hat cost almost $1 million in 1982cannow be purchased

for

about $1()(),()()(), and transmission time shows a similar(tend with cos) dropping

from

roughly

$2(KX)/hour

to about $200 now [32].

Telecommuting: Around 5 million Americans telecommute

full-lime,

but thenumber leaps to 40 million if we include part-time telecommuters and

self-

employed people working at home. Roughly 60 "/o oi all

office

products are soldfor home

offices

today, i awyers, advertising agents, architects, stockbrokers,sales executives, and other professionals now conduct their work at ski resorts,country homes, and other outlying regions.

Teleconferencing: While few organizations use teleconferencingnow, ihe rateof growth is estimated at 40% 60% per year [32,33]. Bank

of

America, TexasInstruments, AROO,

Sears.

MCI, and ford have been holding teleconferencesfor years |34f and the

prospects

look so good ihat A'l&T is reintroducing itsold picture phone.

Information centers: Increasing numbers oi' companies are locatingtelemarkeiiug, reservation services, data entry, credit card operations, and other types oi"information centers" in areas where labor and operatingcosts arc cheaper, "lotthese companies, location doesn't mallei a whole lot anynioic," said an economist .f leeironic comnumicalions: It is estimated thai (here were 10 million "electronicmailboxes" in the United Slates as oi 1992.

Shell

Oil, for instance, saves $100pei yearon each

of

its 23000 mailboxes while providingeveryone in the firm withinstantaneous contact. Ihe nation is now being wired together by 6000 bulletinboatds |35] and 2! million PCs connected into neiwoiks. Roughly 70% ol allmanaceis now use a P( '.

fleet

ionic education: Many "electronic universities" now oiler courses viainteractive I V,

computer conferences,

and oilier media; the University oi Marylandannounced m 1991 that it will olfet the fust degree program conducted clectronicalls S36j.

flecn ouic shopping; Seats. Peuncv's. and oilier major lelailers are ciealuu.' a"TVshopping mall" thai will per mil

put

chases of vittuallyall oii lieu merchandiseelectronically |37j.

Bo\ 2. Ciowth of information services.

physicians, psychotherapypracticed via closed circuit TV,electronic publishing,and evenspiritual and religious services conducted via TV and computer networks.

The great potential

of information

services is highlightedby the fact t hat IBM andSears have poured huge sums

of

time, money, and creative

effort

inio launchingProdigy,a national

effort

to provide

information

services to the millions

of

homes now having

computers.

Prodigy has gained fairly wide acceptance, serving more than one million

lABLK 3DelphiForecast ol Information Services

Year ol Probability US market leadingoccurrence (0-1.0) (Sbillions) nation

12 United States

X"! United States

21 United Slates

-is tinned States4. Icleconleiencmg: meetings 2<«>(> .40conducted electionically replace themajorityof business Havel

\y> tinned Statesv Electronic.shopping: hallol all goods 200".' .-41in the United Slates arc sold though

computet

services such

as

I'lodigs

subscribers as

of

1990, and it is growingrapidly,

f'ven

if this venture fails, il seems likelythat others, possibly

offered

by the telephone companies, should eventuallyemerge tofill what appears to be a huge social need, creating a public

information

utility roughlylike today's phone service.

Although these (rends suggest (lie general course

of future

developments, there are

serious questions about how If systems will

fit

into existing social patterns,

and,

con-versely, whether social behavior can be

modified

to

fit

(he technology. These doubts are

reflected

in ihe estimates of the Delphi panel summarized above.In contrast to the "technical" flis described earlier which were confidently predicted

lo occur soon, the data in

fable

3 show that (he panel had serious concerns about theacceptability

of information

services. Computerization

of

libraries was estimated to occurfairly soon (2000) at a high level

of

probability (.87), but (he other

four

services werethought tohave a modest likelihood of acceptance, averaging about .50, and, if accepted,would be delayed several years. Typical comments

of

the panelists describe the type

of

doubts that many people harbor:

"It's hard to believe that

half

of all workers will work al home.""Education commonly conducted at

home?

No. The idea

of

being on a campus is(oo appealing."

"five

teaching will continue."'Tver shop with the computer services

'Mail'?

It's a mess.

These doubtsagree withother evidence showing the same mixed acceptance

of

replac-ing live social interaction with electronically conducted services. A survey conducted byHoneywell

Information

Systems in 1987

found

that

56%of

respondents would continueto go to the

office

every day if given the choice

of

working at home electronically,

36%

MilestoneI. Computerized libraries: access lo 2000 .87

librarymaterials via

computer

ismore convenient and less expensive

than going to the library

2. Work at home: hall of all workers 2009 52in Ihe United States perform thenjobspartially at home using

computer

systems}. flcctjfHiic education: education is 2002 .(.'*

commonly conducted using

computerized teaching piogiamsand intcraciive TV

WE. HALAL

80

THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION

81

would splittheir time between home and

office,

and only 7% would work at home exclu-sively [41].

The main conclusion

of

these data is that

information

services are unlikelyto replacedirect interaction because people are social beings, so they will always need opportunities

for

close encounterswith others at work,

school,

and other social settings. However,this does not mean that

information

services will not be

used,

but rather (hat they arelikely to become a viable alternative to thereal thing when it is more convenient. Travelis becoming ever more time consuming, environmentallydamaging,

wastefulof

energy,

and hectic as

trafficgrows

increasingly congested, thereby creating great incentives lo

find

oilier options. And as electronic services become more convenient to use, they willincreasingly fill the need

for

that option— as an alternative lo be used part of the timewhile maintaining social relations throughoccasional direct contact.

We should also note tha)

efforts

are underway lo achieve a happy marriage between

social norms and (he new ITs. A good exampleis the compromisenow evolvingbetweenworking at the

office

and working at home. Employers want lo spare their people longtrips into urbanoffices, yet

often

they feel

uncomfortable

allowingthem to work at home.One solution is the "telework center"--a satellite

office

containing If equipment that

enables employees to do (heir work near their neighborhoods.

Some

are sei up by onecompanyfor their employees.

Pacific

Bell has been operating two such centers in California for years. Others are being opened by local governments-or a group of companiesto accomodate miscellaneous employees. Hawaii,

for

instance, has created a center in asuburb oi

\\ono\u\ufor

use by employees of local firms and government agencies [42!.Similarcenters are being experimentedwith in Europe and Japan. If this trend continues,(he conllicl between working at home and working at (he

office

could be resolved by anintermediate solution -working in a satellite

office

near home.! litis we predict thai

information

services oi' the general type described above willfind increasing useamong largeportions oi' modern societies, the majority in most eases,on at least a partial basis over the next decade or so. This should be especially true

for

younger people who are more

comfortable

with alternative life-styles because they havegrown up in an

information

age. A recent study showed that the majority

of

middle-classchildren in America commonly use electronic telephones with automatic features, video

cameras,

home computers, fax machines, and other devices thai roughly70% oi middleclass

families

now own |43j.

Summary and

Conclusions:

The IT Revolution

Should Transformlife

During 2000-2010The above forecasts are summarized in figure I, which provides a profile showing

the sequence in which these Ills should appear and theii likely economic impact. Using

data

from

the Delphi forecasts, (he year at which EITs should be introduced was takendirectly

from

the lime estimates in 'fables I -3, and the expected contribution to. the

US

gross national product (CNP) was obtained by multiplyingthe estimated market valueby the probability, a method commonly used to calculate expected value under risk. Theexpected additions to CNP made by each EIT were then accumulated to plot the profilein figure 3.

Thus, figure3 depicts the contribution to the American economy thai should occutduring the next two decades when the 14 EITs

of

this study are phased in, graphicallydescribing the most likely scenario thai should be played out duringthe next two decades.A

fewpatterns

noted previously stand out more sharply.

The most obvious conclusion is (hat the if revolution should send a great waveofinnovation flowing through modern societies during the early part ol the 21st century.Collectively, these f lis are likely lo provide a direct economic impetus totalingroughly$400 billion to the United States alone, and lhe social impact of such innovations shouldreverberate throughout society and,

indeed,

the entire world.If one examines the order in which these 14 P.ITs are

introduced,

the lag between"technical" vs "social" change is also apparent. As

shown,

technical EITs should exert(he initial impael shortly

after

lhe year 2000 as more powerful computer hardware and

software

become available: sophisticated software, expert systems, optical computers,computerized libraries, and the like. Then toward the latter part

of

that decade, about2005, (his spurt in intelligentcomputerpower should permit

feasibleinformation

servicesto be phased into the mainstream

of

society: electronic education, teleconferencing,elec-tronic shopping, work at home, and so on.

There is some overlap between these two patterns at the middle of the time period,and some

of

the milestones are

defined

a bit differently so the data are no! entirelyconsistent, and there may be some double-counting.Bui (he general conclusion shownin this profile is thai technical EITs should be introduced

first,

while the PI I s involvingsensitive social consequences are likely to be adopted during the later phase

of

the ITrevolution. Several reasons canbe suggested io explain this lag. More powerful

informa-

tion systems must

first

be available to permit sophisticated,

convenient,

human-friendly

information

services that will attract users, and more(ime is needed to changeentrenchedsocial patterns. As noted before, social behavior is not likely to change until it is drivenby necessity: the escalating social costs

of

(ravel, lhe time required

of

busy people in ahectic world to hold on-site meetings,and other drawbacks

of

traditional behavior may-make electronic alternatives more acceptable ultimately.

If this conclusion is valid, (he ITrevolution may produce not onlya dramatic

shift

in the technological base oi' modern societies but a dramatic social revolution as well.Thepossibility

of

conduclingmost social

functions

electronicallyhas hugesocietal impactsbecause it introduces bold new options:

distances,

time, and access to peopleand institu-tions can easily be spanned to the point that (here really ceases to be any good reason

82 WE. HALAI IHE

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY

REVOLUTION

i

whyonecannotlocate anoffice, home,school, or other facilityvirtuallyanywhere. ArthurC. Clarke, the science

fiction

writer, is deeply involved in American society, yet he makeshis home in Sri Lanka.

Il is (his singular new opiion

of

interacting electronically thai is beginning to alterdramatically the way (he world works.

Global

corporations are nowable to conduct theirbusiness around the world as conveniently as they do in the same city, and this globalscope oi business activity is primarily responsible

for

the sudden emergence

of

the globaleconomy during the

past few

years.I ikewise, as(he family is able increasinglytoconduct its vital functionseleclronically,

it 100should be able tospan

distances,

(ime, and institutions withequivalent ease, bringingeducation, shopping, work, and other activities into the home on al least a partial basis.The result may be thai (he home could (hereby recover ils traditional role as a center olproduction,as it was during the long history oi agricullural societies. If (his occurs, wemay see a resmgence oi cohesiveness in family life, neighborhoods, and cities as peopledevote more lime and interest to their local

communities,

while intimatelyconnected loI lie outside world through powerful

information

networks.A related

transformation

in institutions may also occur because electronic relationships arc even now beginning lo shift lhe locus oi power in modern societies. Auihoiitvfigures can always use computers to dominate subordinates, of course, but

information

systems lend to drive power, initiative, and control down io the bottom oi largeorganiza

lions,

for

insiance,

Alvm Toltler predicts lliat the inloi maiion age will create a "powershif("|44|.

We donot yet fully mulct siand this unusual change, bin a knowledge-based soeieivseems to grant people greater

freedom.Before

computerization, the industrial age demauded conformity to decisions tlowmg

from

(he lop

of

a hieraicliy in older to keepthe production lines running. Bui an inlormaiion age encourages lhe creative use olknowledgebecause ihe need io solve toughnew problems is becoming Ihe centra!

function

ol a high-tech, global economy. Peter Hrucker

put

il well: "1 eadership ihiotighoul Un-developed world no longer rests oi\

financial

control or traditional cost advantages, ittests on brain power." That is basically why communism collapsed in IW(>

;md

why treemarkets are spreading throughout the world with Mich

enthusiasm, "flic

same transloimalion ofpowei stinet usescanbe seen in capitalist nai ions as large corporal ions like IBMatebeing decent i ah/ed into small, scmiauiouomous

units,

each oi these "internal enterprises"collaboiatiug wiih its employees suppliers, and oihei stakeholders, even includingcompetitors."'

f lie net effect of these trends should resemble a society governed not by hierarchicalpyramids, bin by constantly changing pockets o! collaboration within a fluid, dynamicweb of organic social,

information

networks spanning the globe. In symbolic terms, onecould say dial (he industrial age was managed hierarchically because "social machines"were needed to run the industrial machines. An

information

age will he managedby "socialnetworks" io match the dominant structural form

of future

technologies-

information

networks. To identifythis trend with a sharply

focused

label, wcmighlextend theitaditionin computer circles of defining "virtual machines," "virtual languages," "virtual reality ,"and other ethereal new realms of computer behavior into the social domain (he "vitdial community.'"'

ImtlK-i iiniplilu-alionol (In. ihcn.c.

sre

/übnli |-»S|and llalal |4(,|. \ q„»u..-i

m-.mou

ol Uns .IksunK-^m ihilal |471

miliar

concept,

see Hilt/and I'urolf |H|

83

1his new phenomenon,(he

emergenceof

a virtual communitymade possible by thewiring of (he globe, highlightshow people in far-flung nations lodayshare a commonability to

engage

m electronic interactions that goes beyond the "global village"

first

described by Marshall McLuhan decades ago. The globalvillage

focused

on (he commonsense ofglobalawareness(hat was created by the advent

of

mass media like TV but thevirtual community transcends mass communications to provide electronically mediatedrelationships that actually

form

living communities. The exponentialgrowth

of

cheapje. (ravel, long-distance phone

calls, fax,

computer networking, and other high-techexchanges has made i« possible for ordinary people to

engage

in virtuallyany type

of

working relationshiparound the world: business

deals,

professional collaboration scien-tific research, and the like.I he rap.d growth

of

virtual communities canbe seen in the wav citizens of the United

States,

f.urope, Japan,and even the

former

Communis,bloc seem to

form

close workine-claconslups and friendships through electronic exchanges, producing a so,,

of

global

forum

in which major issues are planned,

discussed,

and resolved roughly as one wouldinteract with neighbors. How else can we explain (he

fact

thai the collapseof communismsianed m Poland, and within weeks brought down the rest of Eastern Europe, the BerlinWall, and lhe entire

Soviet

Union?C

arrymg

this line

of

thought

further,

(here is a close similarity between the

informa-

tHmne«works.H)wforn.ingavm-.ualcon,u,uni.yand!hebrain!ikequali,vof.hecomputera.ch.tec.ure emerging fo. (he

future

- neural networks. If the individual operating acomputer can he though,oi as analogous toa single nerve cell, then the emerging globalweb of

information

networks operated by billions

of

educated people working together""Hind the world becomes analogous to a massive "globalbrain" possess!,,,, the capacityfn an unprecedented

form of

"global intelligence" [48].I Ins emergence of some

form

of global intelligencehighlightsa subtle but distinctivethat should occur when the I I revolution arrives shortly

after

Ihe year 2000.Alt Hough people

,n

advanced nations like the United

States,

Europe, and Japan havebeen speaking about (ne

information

age for yeais now, in

fact

these countries are stilll.vmg m what should moie accurately be considered a "service society," while a (rueknowledge society" awaits (he beginning

of

(he 2lst century.ins commonlysaid that

70%

„f ,he labo, !orvc Ilowworks m„scma.s anJ .^^H*m but this figure obscures the crucial distinction between service work and knowledgevwh k. Ihe donmian. activity today consists of providing personal services such as mer-chandising goods,operating restaurants and

hotels,

(caching,

financialservices,

and thehke. winch occupy roughly 40%

„f

the labor force. Only the remaining

30%

can beProperty atinbu.ed ,o

informa.ion-based

activities hke

scientific

and industrial researchjournalism higher education, .strategic management, and other intellectual work, butwin^T

KiUCi

' lg

SCC,

°' SiHH,!d g,OW '°

CXCeed

the

SCrvicC

sw,w b* theyea, .000 49|. This crossover pom, will then mark .he beginning

of

a knowledge-basedeconomy ,ha,

,s

primarily concerned with ( he

creation,

analysis,and application of know.-edge lo solve chthcull problems.H we could step back a hit to consider the signif.cance of the IT revolution

from

asheer uncdonal point of view, onemust wonder what

historic,

evolutionary purpose isserved byall th,s extraordinary intellectual capacity. Applying the perspective

of

generalsystems theory, it would seem (hat (he

information

age

represents

a later phase in (hedevelopment of the plane, as a natural system in i.s own rig.,,, roughly comparable tothe way education develops the youthful human personality into a mature, capable

W.E. HALAL THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION

85

84

f

responsible adult,

from

this developmentalviewpoint, the unusual crises that have sud-denly appeared during the past

few

years are largelyattributable to the revolutionary

effectsof

IT.The collapse

of communism,

the

unificationof

Europe, the

emergence

ofa global economy, the arrival

of

the environmental ethic, and other such critical eventswere all made possible by the unusual

flowof information

around the globe, and theirresolution also hinges upon the more sophisticated management

of information.

EechWalesa intuitively grasped (he origin

of

the revolutionary

force

he merely guided inPoland: "Howdid all (hese

reforms

appear?"he asked rhetorically,"Theresult

of

comput-ers, communication

satellites,

television." 7

I et me summarize the likelyscenario facing the globe

from

this developmentalpro-cess. World population seems almost certain to shoot up to at least ten billion peopleover the long term

of

30-40

years,

all of whom want to live as affluently as

Americans,

thereby increasing the load on the environment by an additional

factorof five

or more,even as the world is unable to sustain its present level

of

industrialization. Add to thisdemand the need tocontain a world

of

explodingcultural diversity,technologicalcomplex-ity, local autonomy, rapid change, and so forth, and il becomes fairly

self-evident

(hat

the inherent limitations

of

our present techno-economic-political systems will either leadlo a historic breakdown orto the development

of

a

different

system,

from

anevolutionary,general systems perspective, then, it could be said that Ihe purpose of the If revolutionis to create someas yet unknown typeof

far

more sophisticatedglobal

information

systemthat is able to manage the emerging "new world order."

While this transition is revolutionary because it is occurring in arelatively short limeand hasgreat consequences, the new social order is likely to be both vastly different and

at the same time boringly the same. The main

effectof

the II revolution should be

n>

move human concerns up a notch on ihe scale oi social evolution. Whereas previouslymost people were preoccupied with material matters, advanced societies should i'oc\i^

their energies on intellectual concernsas the world becomes more information-rich, intensely aware

of

its functioning at an abstract level, and achieves a senseoi maturitythat addresses heroic new (asks such as managinga complexglobaleconomy, lhe mappingof (he humangenome, and the like. Hut (his knowledge-based social order will siill haveiodea! with all I he old issues that alwaysoccupy any society: raising youngsters, educatingpeople, managing institutions, and other humdrum activities which remain as timelessas death and taxes. Healthy societies also retain a firm connection with their history andtraditions,

further

creating a senseoi continuity across social transitions. Thus, there is

a paradox in thai the knowledge-based society should be simultaneouslyboth revolutionarv yet comfortably unchanged.

finally, we should note thatevenif this heroic transition toa knowledge-basedsocialorder is successful, it does nol implya ulopian

future

because new technologies always

introduce new dangers. As we become deeply reliant upon

information

systems thai are

so powerful and complex as to almost defy comprehension, much less control, greatcosts must be paid in human diligence.

for instance, today's problems

of

ensuring computer security, personalprivacy, andprotection against destructive intrusions (such as viruses) seem certain to require fargreater care and ingenuity as

information

systems become more pervasive. Even smallunintended

failures

can be catastrophic. In 1991 a software bug consisting of three linesoi faultycomputer code brought down the Washington, DC, telephonesystem, efTectively

Walesa is quoted from Newsweek (27 November 1989). A good account ol Ihe role lelevision played in■ollapseol communism is ottered by Sonenshine |s()|.

crippling the nation's capital

for

several hours. How much more damage could be doneby an evil person skilled at wreaking havoc with large

information

systems that run themilitary, airports,

financialmarkets,

and other strategic

functions

[51]?And as

information

becomes the primary resource in a knowledge-based economy,

far

greater attention must be devoted to its equitable distribution if the world hopes toavoid creating an underclass

of "information

have-nots."

Oneof

the primary reasonsthe United

States

is in economic decline is tht an outmoded educational system has

left

most American youngsters functionally ill equipped to cope with a high-tech society.Perhaps the toughest challenge will be to develop

effective

means

for

finding ourway through the looming avalanche

of

data that even now threatens to engulf us. It issupremelyironic to discoverthat people increasingly

feel

more ignorant precisely becausean overabundance

of

knowledge leaves them with a heightened awareness

of

all that is

unknown,

yet strugglingthrough masses

of

data to

find

the

information

they need.But despite these drawbacks of the

information

age, a remarkably

different

era lieswaiting around the turn

of

the millennium that

offers

enormous new potential. Human

progress

has been made very slowly and with great struggle throughout the long march

of

history, and now a great surge

forward

seems likely as science and technology harnessthe power

of information

that has

heretofore

been largely unrealized. Whether we likeit or nol, the genie

of

knowledge is finally being released

from

its bottle.In a mythological way, il almost seems that (he IT revolution is

part of

the greatdrama

of

civilization thai began with the origin

of

humankind in the biblical

Gardenof

Eden. Then, Adam and Eve were banished

from

(heir

former

innocence upon eating

"fruit from

the tree

of

knowledge." today, modern IT

offers

the meansto complete thishuman drama as our use of knowledgereaches its

full

potential, and

God

onlyknowswhat that may be.

Theauthorgratefully acknowledges the contribution ofhis graduate

students,

DavidCollins, Tessa I ucero, Janice i'arsek, Joseph

Shaffner,

and Joseph Timmins, who pro-vided the Delphidata reported in this paper. This article is adaptedfrom a chapter inEmerging Information Technologies (Prentice /fall, forthcoming).

I.

I'clcd, A.,

Ihe Next Compute!

Revolution,

Scientific American. Octobci 1987.Shallner. J ,

limnnns,

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Collins,

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Paisek,

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uccio,

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inslone, 11.,

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Rowe,

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Kciched 14 Dccemh ■I 1 tune

!'-,

A Stochastic Cellular Automata Model ofInnovation Diffusion

S.C.

BHARGAVA,ARUN KUMAR, and A. MUKHKRJEK

ABSTRACT

A stochastic cellular automata model ol new product diffusion is proposed. Il isfound that the growth for

a

given market potential can be determined by a

parameter

that quantitieschance preferences of individualslor the product and can be eslmialcd from held surveys ll is also found that the "takeover time in a givenseed region is almost independentol lhe nuuibci ol innovators. The results suggest possible strategies for the

introductionHow docs an innovation spread' What path does it

follow

and why?Anunderstandingof these questions is quite crucial

from

(he viewpoint of forecasting as these considerationscould make all ihe

difference

in the

successful

introduction

of

a new technology, a newproduct, or a new idea.

We recall here one of (he most widely studied models

of

those technological changeswhich ultimatelypain acceptance. The model,

fromfisher

and Pry |l|. is based mainlyon the assumptions that "many technological advances can he considered as competitivesubstitution

of

one method of satisfying a need

for

another" and that "the

fractional

rate

of fractional

substitution of the old by the new is proportional to what is

left

to besubstituted.

"

The

differential

equation

form

of the mode! is given by

dflill

</

/

( 1

/

I (I)

where

/

is the

fraction

ol the market suhstiiulcd by the new technology and q is theparameter representing growth, fq. (I ) is the well-known Verhulst equation |2j used todescribe the growth oi biological systems ol single species, commonly called logistic-growth,

flic

solution to eg. ( ! i can be written as

I (2)

S C. HHARGAVA is a Header in Physics al Si Stephen \ College, University of Delhi. His currentinterests

,„e

m lhe mathematical modeling ol physical, biological, and social systems. ARUN KUMAR is a.ompuler specialist in the Department of Computer Science al St Stephen's College His current interests arein the development of software of scientific and conimcrc.al interest AMITABHA MUKH!RILL is

a

Readerin the Department ofPhysics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi Inaddition lo cellular

automata,

his currentinterests include high energy physics, gravitation, and cosmology.

Address reprint

requests

to Dr S. C Bhargava. Department of Physics. St Stephen's College. Universityol

Delhi,

New Delhi. I 10

007,

India

199.1 by Hlsevier Science Publishing

Co.,

In 0040 1625/93/56.00

29. Time. 28 March 1988.