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- 183 - http://www.emj-journal.org/ Economic Management Journal December 2013, Volume 2, Issue 5, PP.183-188 The Influence between the Time Parameters and the Return of Pairs Trading Chao Shao, Hong Fan # Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, P.R. China # Email: [email protected] Abstract The historical data of A-share market during 2010 to 2013 has been examined by means of the classical pairs trading strategy in this paper. Based on the setting of fundamental parameters, it was found that the return of pairs trading is statistically significant, and that through the adjustment on time parameter, the return of pairs trading depends on the formation and trading period, leading to the finding that higher return results from shorter formation. Keywords: Pairs Trading; Time Parameters; Arbitrage Strategy 时间参数的设定对配对交易收益率的影响 * 邵超,范宏 东华大学 旭日工商管理学院,上海 200051 要:将经典的配对交易策略运用到中国 A 股市场 2010 年到 2013 年的历史数据进行实证检验。在基本参数设定下,我 们发现配对交易的月收益,在统计上是显著的。通过调整策略中的时间参数,发现配对交易的收益率与形成期和交易期 的长度有关。从本次实验结果来看较短的形成期能够带来更大的收益率。 关键词:配对交易;时间参数;套利策略 引言 配对交易最早兴起于 20 世纪 80 年代。当时 Morgan Stanley 的一批物理学家,数学家和计算机专家在 Nunzio Tartaglia 的带领下,将复杂的统计模型开发成计算机程序,并运用此程序进行自动交易取得了空前 成功。之后,配对交易作为一种市场中性投资策略在成熟的证券市场被普遍采用。配对交易策略的提出是 由于有交易员观察到,市场中存在着一些股票,它们历史上有着相近的价格走势,将这些股票组成配对, 它们的价格差在一段时间内围绕着一个历史均值上下波动。当价格差偏离历史均值较远之后往往会出现向 历史均值回归的要求,这被称为均值回复现象。根据均值回复这一现象,如果在价差偏离均值时建立相应 的多头或空头仓位——具体做法是做多配对中价格被低估的股票,同时做空配对中价格被高估的股票,等 到价差回复到历史均值时平仓,就能赚取价差收敛所产生的收益。学术上第一篇系统研究配对交易策略, 提出具体交易方法并且进行实证检验的论文是由 GatevGoetzmann Rouwenhorst2006[1] (此后简称 GGR)于 1999 年发表的(草稿)。文中提出了通过计算候选股票标准化价格之间的距离来挑选合适的配对, 在价差偏离历史均值 2 倍标准差的位置建仓价差回复到历史均值时平仓等交易准则。之后的研究包括对挑选 配对和交易模型的研究:Vidyamurthy2004[2] 提出在配对交易中使用协整模型;Elliott et al2005[3] 出连续的随机价差模型; Huck2010[4] 提出使用多目标决策和神经网络的方法构建配对组合;投资仓位 最优化的研究:Jurek Yang2007[5] Mudchanatongsuk et al 2008[6] ,和最优开仓阈值的研究: * 基金资助: 国家自然科学基金项目 7097102171371046 上海市教委基础创新重点项目 12ZS055

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  • - 183 -

    http://www.emj-journal.org/

    Economic Management Journal December 2013, Volume 2, Issue 5, PP.183-188

    The Influence between the Time Parameters and

    the Return of Pairs Trading Chao Shao, Hong Fan

    #

    Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, P.R. China

    #Email: [email protected]

    Abstract

    The historical data of A-share market during 2010 to 2013 has been examined by means of the classical pairs trading strategy in

    this paper. Based on the setting of fundamental parameters, it was found that the return of pairs trading is statistically significant,

    and that through the adjustment on time parameter, the return of pairs trading depends on the formation and trading period, leading

    to the finding that higher return results from shorter formation.

    Keywords: Pairs Trading; Time Parameters; Arbitrage Strategy

    *

    200051

    A 2010 2013

    20 80 Morgan Stanley

    Nunzio Tartaglia

    GatevGoetzmann Rouwenhorst2006[1]

    GGR 1999

    2

    Vidyamurthy2004[2]Elliott et al2005[3]

    Huck2010[4]

    Jurek Yang2007[5]Mudchanatongsuk et al2008[6]

    * 7097102171371046 12ZS055

  • - 184 -

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